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Crystal Palace v Brighton and Hove Albion — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 21 December 2023 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

Crystal Palace
1–1
1.65 – 1.34 xG
Brighton and Hove Albion
Shots
11 – 18
On target
3 – 6
Shots in box
10 – 10
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.25 – 0.42
Goals − xG
-0.66 – -0.34
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.50.91.41.90'15'30'45'60'75'90'Jordan Ayew 45' — goalDanny Welbeck 81' — goal
Crystal Palace 1.66 xGBrighton and Hove Albion 1.34 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Pascal Groß 3' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Carlos Baleba 18' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Simon Adingra 18' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Michael Olise 22' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Jean-Philippe Mateta 26' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jordan Ayew 32' — Saved Shot (0.14 xG, From Corner)Jean-Philippe Mateta 33' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Jean-Philippe Mateta 35' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Michael Olise 35' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Pascal Groß 39' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jordan Ayew 45' — Goal (0.53 xG, Open Play)Danny Welbeck 50' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, From Corner)João Pedro 51' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Lewis Dunk 53' — Missed Shot (0.32 xG, Set Piece)Jack Hinshelwood 54' — Missed Shot (0.33 xG, Open Play)Kaoru Mitoma 57' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Billy Gilmour 64' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Facundo Buonanotte 64' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Jack Hinshelwood 65' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Jan Paul van Hecke 68' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Pascal Groß 72' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Eberechi Eze 77' — Blocked Shot (0.41 xG, Open Play)Eberechi Eze 78' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Jean-Philippe Mateta 78' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Jefferson Lerma 78' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Kaoru Mitoma 80' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Danny Welbeck 81' — Goal (0.02 xG, Open Play)João Pedro 87' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Danny Welbeck 89' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)
Crystal Palace attacking right Brighton and Hove Albion attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
3' Brighton and Hove Albion Pascal Groß 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Carlos Baleba
18' Brighton and Hove Albion Carlos Baleba 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
18' Brighton and Hove Albion Simon Adingra 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Igor Julio
22' Crystal Palace Michael Olise 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Jean-Philippe Mateta
26' Crystal Palace Jean-Philippe Mateta 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Tyrick Mitchell
32' Crystal Palace Jordan Ayew 0.14 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Michael Olise
33' Crystal Palace Jean-Philippe Mateta 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Michael Olise
35' Crystal Palace Jean-Philippe Mateta 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
35' Crystal Palace Michael Olise 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Jean-Philippe Mateta
39' Brighton and Hove Albion Pascal Groß 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot —
45' Crystal Palace Jordan Ayew 0.53 Open Play — Goal Michael Olise
50' Brighton and Hove Albion Danny Welbeck 0.10 From Corner — Blocked Shot Pascal Groß
51' Brighton and Hove Albion João Pedro 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
53' Brighton and Hove Albion Lewis Dunk 0.32 Set Piece — Missed Shot Pascal Groß
54' Brighton and Hove Albion Jack Hinshelwood 0.33 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Danny Welbeck
57' Brighton and Hove Albion Kaoru Mitoma 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Facundo Buonanotte
64' Brighton and Hove Albion Billy Gilmour 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot —
64' Brighton and Hove Albion Facundo Buonanotte 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Pascal Groß
65' Brighton and Hove Albion Jack Hinshelwood 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Pascal Groß
68' Brighton and Hove Albion Jan Paul van Hecke 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Jack Hinshelwood
72' Brighton and Hove Albion Pascal Groß 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Danny Welbeck
77' Crystal Palace Eberechi Eze 0.41 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Jean-Philippe Mateta
78' Crystal Palace Eberechi Eze 0.08 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot —
78' Crystal Palace Jean-Philippe Mateta 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Joachim Andersen
78' Crystal Palace Jefferson Lerma 0.02 From Corner — Missed Shot Michael Olise
80' Brighton and Hove Albion Kaoru Mitoma 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Pascal Groß
81' Brighton and Hove Albion Danny Welbeck 0.02 Open Play — Goal Pascal Groß
87' Brighton and Hove Albion João Pedro 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
89' Brighton and Hove Albion Danny Welbeck 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jan Paul van Hecke

Players

Brighton and Hove Albion

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Lewis Dunk DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.32 0.00 0.60
Pascal Groß AMC 90 0 1 3 6 0.08 0.59 0.36
Jan Paul van Hecke DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.06 0.29
João Pedro FW 90 0 0 2 0 0.05 0.00 0.44
Billy Gilmour DMC 90 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.60
Bart Verbruggen GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.23
Igor Julio DL 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.29
Kaoru Mitoma AML 85 0 0 2 0 0.07 0.00 0.59
Jack Hinshelwood DR 77 0 0 2 1 0.39 0.06 0.50
Simon Adingra AMR 48 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.05
Carlos Baleba DMC 48 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.02 0.10
Danny Welbeck Sub 42 1 0 3 2 0.18 0.36 0.45
Facundo Buonanotte Sub 42 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.03 0.46
Adam Lallana Sub 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Jakub Moder Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Crystal Palace

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Jean-Philippe Mateta FW 90 0 0 4 3 0.28 0.60 0.88
Michael Olise FWR 90 0 1 2 4 0.19 0.81 1.24
Jefferson Lerma MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.07
Tyrick Mitchell DL 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Nathaniel Clyne DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.18
Marc Guehi DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Joachim Andersen DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.59
Dean Henderson GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Chris Richards MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jordan Ayew FWL 72 1 0 2 0 0.67 0.00 0.64
Will Hughes MC 61 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.53
David Ozoh Sub 29 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Eberechi Eze Sub 18 0 0 2 0 0.49 0.00 0.41
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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