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Crystal Palace v Chelsea — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 12 February 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

1–3
0.72 – 1.27 xG
Shots
13 – 14
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
7 – 10
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.18 – 0.12
Goals − xG
+0.28 – +1.73
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.71.11.40'15'30'45'60'75'90'Jefferson Lerma 29' — goalConor Gallagher 46' — goalConor Gallagher 90' — goalEnzo Fernández 93' — goal
Crystal Palace 0.72 xGChelsea 1.27 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Jordan Ayew 4' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Chris Richards 11' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Set Piece)Jean-Philippe Mateta 22' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Jefferson Lerma 29' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Jefferson Lerma 29' — Goal (0.01 xG, Open Play)Matheus França 33' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Conor Gallagher 45' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Conor Gallagher 46' — Goal (0.10 xG, Open Play)Thiago Silva 49' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Cole Palmer 50' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Matheus França 53' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Jordan Ayew 56' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Jean-Philippe Mateta 58' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Jefferson Lerma 60' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Ben Chilwell 67' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Nicolas Jackson 68' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Enzo Fernández 71' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Matheus França 75' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Cole Palmer 77' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Cole Palmer 79' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Raheem Sterling 82' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Naouirou Ahamada 85' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Odsonne Edouard 85' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Axel Disasi 89' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Set Piece)Conor Gallagher 90' — Goal (0.07 xG, Open Play)Enzo Fernández 93' — Goal (0.52 xG, Open Play)Christopher Nkunku 95' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)
Crystal Palace attacking right Chelsea attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
4' Crystal Palace Jordan Ayew 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Will Hughes
11' Crystal Palace Chris Richards 0.09 Set Piece Missed Shot Will Hughes
22' Crystal Palace Jean-Philippe Mateta 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Will Hughes
29' Crystal Palace Jefferson Lerma 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
29' Crystal Palace Jefferson Lerma 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Goal
33' Crystal Palace Matheus França 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Jean-Philippe Mateta
45' Chelsea Conor Gallagher 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Noni Madueke
46' Chelsea Conor Gallagher 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Goal Malo Gusto
49' Chelsea Thiago Silva 0.05 From Corner Blocked Shot Conor Gallagher
50' Chelsea Cole Palmer 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Malo Gusto
53' Crystal Palace Matheus França 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Daniel Muñoz
56' Crystal Palace Jordan Ayew 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Daniel Muñoz
58' Crystal Palace Jean-Philippe Mateta 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Matheus França
60' Crystal Palace Jefferson Lerma 0.09 From Corner Missed Shot Will Hughes
67' Chelsea Ben Chilwell 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
68' Chelsea Nicolas Jackson 0.05 Open Play Missed Shot Conor Gallagher
71' Chelsea Enzo Fernández 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Conor Gallagher
75' Crystal Palace Matheus França 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Adam Wharton
77' Chelsea Cole Palmer 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
79' Chelsea Cole Palmer 0.01 Set Piece Left Foot Blocked Shot Moisés Caicedo
82' Chelsea Raheem Sterling 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Cole Palmer
85' Crystal Palace Naouirou Ahamada 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Odsonne Edouard
85' Crystal Palace Odsonne Edouard 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
89' Chelsea Axel Disasi 0.06 Set Piece Saved Shot Raheem Sterling
90' Chelsea Conor Gallagher 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Goal Cole Palmer
93' Chelsea Enzo Fernández 0.52 Open Play Right Foot Goal Cole Palmer
95' Chelsea Christopher Nkunku 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Moisés Caicedo

Players

Crystal Palace

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Jean-Philippe Mateta FW 90 0 0 2 1 0.18 0.05 0.31
Jefferson Lerma DMC 90 1 0 3 0 0.15 0.00 0.11
Chris Richards DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.09 0.00 0.02
Jordan Ayew AMR 90 0 0 2 0 0.08 0.00 0.13
Joachim Andersen DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Adam Wharton DMC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.24
Daniel Muñoz DR 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.09 0.09
Dean Henderson GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tyrick Mitchell DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Matheus França AML 87 0 0 3 1 0.13 0.12 0.25
Will Hughes AMC 82 0 0 0 4 0.00 0.25 0.18
Naouirou Ahamada Sub 8 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Odsonne Edouard Sub 3 0 0 1 1 0.07 0.02 0.09

Chelsea

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Enzo Fernández DMC 90 1 0 2 0 0.54 0.00 0.72
Conor Gallagher AMC 90 2 0 3 3 0.25 0.11 0.31
Cole Palmer FW 90 0 2 3 3 0.10 0.71 0.98
Axel Disasi DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.22
Ben Chilwell DL 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.21
Moisés Caicedo DMC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.09 0.94
Djordje Petrovic GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Malo Gusto DR 87 0 1 0 2 0.00 0.14 0.18
Nicolas Jackson AML 82 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.05
Thiago Silva DC 64 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.14
Noni Madueke AMR 49 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.07
Christopher Nkunku Sub 41 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.28
Levi Colwill Sub 26 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Raheem Sterling Sub 8 0 0 1 1 0.12 0.06 0.19
Alfie Gilchrist Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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