Crystal Palace v Chelsea — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 25 January 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 10
On target
6 – 5
Shots in box
12 – 8
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.31
Set-piece xG
1.14 – 0.76
Goals − xG
-1.47 – -0.09
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Crystal Palace win
28.6%
Draw
31.2%
Chelsea win
40.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Crystal Palace are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLDLLLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.7 xG
conceded 23
from 20.8 xG
Chelsea are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLDWLWWL last 10
scored 13
from 14.4 xG
conceded 21
from 18.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.07–1.31 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.81–1.72 | 1-1 9% | 68% | 69% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Crystal Palace 2.47 xGChelsea 3.09 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Crystal Palace attacking right
Chelsea attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ismaila Sarr |
| 12' |
 Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 16' |
Chelsea |
Moisés Caicedo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 18' |
Crystal Palace |
Jefferson Lerma | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 26' |
Chelsea |
Estêvão | 0.21 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | João Pedro |
| 27' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.51 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 30' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Tyrick Mitchell |
| 33' |
Chelsea |
Estêvão | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 42' |
Chelsea |
Estêvão | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 49' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Estêvão |
| 56' |
Chelsea |
Estêvão | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Reece James |
| 56' |
Chelsea |
Marc Cucurella | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 58' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.56 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 63' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 74' |
Crystal Palace |
Brennan Johnson | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 75' |
Crystal Palace |
Maxence Lacroix | 0.11 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yeremi Pino |
| 80' |
Crystal Palace |
Jefferson Lerma | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Yeremi Pino |
| 84' |
Crystal Palace |
Yeremi Pino | 0.02 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 86' |
Crystal Palace |
Maxence Lacroix | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ismaila Sarr |
| 87' |
Crystal Palace |
Chadi Riad | 0.13 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 87' |
Crystal Palace |
Chris Richards | 0.43 | From Corner | — | Goal | Chadi Riad |
| 87' |
Crystal Palace |
Jefferson Lerma | 0.43 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Will Hughes |
| 98' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.30 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Yeremi Pino |
Players
Crystal Palace
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ismaila Sarr AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.81 | 0.44 | 1.23 |
| Jefferson Lerma MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Chris Richards DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maxence Lacroix DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Dean Henderson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta FW | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Brennan Johnson AMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Daniel Muñoz DMR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Adam Wharton MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jaydee Canvot DC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tyrick Mitchell DML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Yeremi Pino Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| Borna Sosa Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Chadi Riad Sub | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.43 | 0.00 |
| Will Hughes Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.30 |
| Christantus Uche Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Chelsea
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enzo Fernández AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.86 | 0.50 | 0.62 |
| Marc Cucurella DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Andrey Santos DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Benoit Badiashile Mukinayi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Trevoh Chalobah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Robert Sánchez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| João Pedro FW | 87 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.97 | 0.21 | 1.30 |
| Reece James DR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Estêvão AMR | 76 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1.11 | 0.41 | 1.62 |
| Pedro Neto AML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Moisés Caicedo DMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Wesley Fofana Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jamie Bynoe-Gittens Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Malo Gusto Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jorrel Hato Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Liam Delap Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |