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Crystal Palace v Fulham — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 23 September 2023 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

0–0
0.37 – 0.54 xG
Shots
7 – 10
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
4 – 5
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.11 – 0.09
Goals − xG
-0.37 – -0.55
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.20.30.50.60'15'30'45'60'75'90'
Crystal Palace 0.37 xGFulham 0.55 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Andreas Pereira 2' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Willian 10' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Joel Ward 17' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Set Piece)Eberechi Eze 31' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Direct Freekick)Timothy Castagne 33' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Raúl Jiménez 34' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Eberechi Eze 41' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Will Hughes 47' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Harrison Reed 54' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Raúl Jiménez 58' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Eberechi Eze 62' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Andreas Pereira 68' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Direct Freekick)Joachim Andersen 78' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Harry Wilson 79' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)João Palhinha 82' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Willian 82' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Jean-Philippe Mateta 85' — Saved Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)
Crystal Palace attacking right Fulham attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' Fulham Andreas Pereira 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Antonee Robinson
10' Fulham Willian 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Raúl Jiménez
17' Crystal Palace Joel Ward 0.05 Set Piece Blocked Shot Eberechi Eze
31' Crystal Palace Eberechi Eze 0.03 Direct Freekick Right Foot Saved Shot
33' Fulham Timothy Castagne 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Harrison Reed
34' Fulham Raúl Jiménez 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Andreas Pereira
41' Crystal Palace Eberechi Eze 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jeffrey Schlupp
47' Crystal Palace Will Hughes 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
54' Fulham Harrison Reed 0.02 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot Timothy Castagne
58' Fulham Raúl Jiménez 0.04 Open Play Missed Shot Antonee Robinson
62' Crystal Palace Eberechi Eze 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Will Hughes
68' Fulham Andreas Pereira 0.08 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot
78' Crystal Palace Joachim Andersen 0.03 From Corner Missed Shot Eberechi Eze
79' Fulham Harry Wilson 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Alex Iwobi
82' Fulham João Palhinha 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
82' Fulham Willian 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Harrison Reed
85' Crystal Palace Jean-Philippe Mateta 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Eberechi Eze

Players

Fulham

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Willian FWL 90 0 0 2 0 0.13 0.00 0.31
Timothy Castagne DR 90 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.02 0.15
João Palhinha MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.22
Harrison Reed MC 90 0 0 1 2 0.02 0.15 0.22
Issa Diop DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.28
Tim Ream DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.21
Bernd Leno GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Antonee Robinson DL 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.13 0.28
Raúl Jiménez FW 83 0 0 2 1 0.11 0.03 0.14
Bobby Reid FWR 83 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andreas Pereira MC 79 0 0 2 1 0.16 0.07 0.20
Alex Iwobi Sub 11 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.14
Harry Wilson Sub 7 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.04
Carlos Vinicius Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04

Crystal Palace

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Eberechi Eze AML 90 0 0 3 3 0.12 0.20 0.21
Joel Ward DR 90 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.17
Will Hughes DMC 90 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.04 0.21
Joachim Andersen DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.17
Jordan Ayew AMR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.17
Tyrick Mitchell DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
Cheick Oumar Doucoure DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.17
Sam Johnstone GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Odsonne Edouard FW 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Marc Guehi DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
Jeffrey Schlupp AMC 74 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.05
Jean-Philippe Mateta Sub 16 0 0 1 0 0.12 0.00 0.12
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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