Crystal Palace v Ipswich — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 8 March 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 15
On target
4 – 7
Shots in box
14 – 9
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.73 – 1.26
Goals − xG
-2.14 – -1.99
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Crystal Palace win
62.4%
Draw
22.7%
Ipswich win
14.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Crystal Palace are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLDLLLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.7 xG
conceded 23
from 20.8 xG
Ipswich are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLLLWLL last 10
scored 9
from 10.0 xG
conceded 25
from 20.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.98–0.87 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.31–0.93 | 2-0 10% | 63% | 54% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Crystal Palace 3.14 xGIpswich 1.99 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Crystal Palace attacking right
Ipswich attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Crystal Palace |
Eddie Nketiah | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Adam Wharton |
| 2' |
 Ipswich |
Jaden Philogene-Bidace | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Leif Davis |
| 4' |
Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alex Palmer |
| 13' |
Crystal Palace |
Jefferson Lerma | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Daniel Muñoz |
| 16' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 19' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Eddie Nketiah |
| 20' |
Crystal Palace |
Daniel Muñoz | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Marc Guehi |
| 23' |
Ipswich |
Julio Enciso | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jaden Philogene-Bidace |
| 24' |
Ipswich |
Julio Enciso | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 40' |
Crystal Palace |
Chris Richards | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adam Wharton |
| 40' |
Crystal Palace |
Eddie Nketiah | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ismaila Sarr |
| 43' |
Crystal Palace |
Eddie Nketiah | 0.62 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ismaila Sarr |
| 48' |
Ipswich |
Leif Davis | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Julio Enciso |
| 49' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Adam Wharton |
| 50' |
Crystal Palace |
Chris Richards | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jefferson Lerma |
| 50' |
Crystal Palace |
Daniel Muñoz | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' |
Ipswich |
Jack Clarke | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Julio Enciso |
| 56' |
Ipswich |
Julio Enciso | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jack Clarke |
| 58' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Adam Wharton |
| 60' |
Ipswich |
Julio Enciso | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jack Clarke |
| 60' |
Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jack Clarke |
| 61' |
Ipswich |
Jacob Greaves | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 61' |
Ipswich |
Jaden Philogene-Bidace | 0.69 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 61' |
Ipswich |
Jaden Philogene-Bidace | 0.47 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 61' |
Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Julio Enciso |
| 64' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tyrick Mitchell |
| 65' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.50 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Adam Wharton |
| 67' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 70' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adam Wharton |
| 77' |
Crystal Palace |
Daniel Muñoz | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 77' |
Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kalvin Phillips |
| 79' |
Ipswich |
Ben Johnson | 0.36 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Leif Davis |
| 81' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 92' |
Crystal Palace |
Daichi Kamada | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ben Chilwell |
Players
Crystal Palace
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ismaila Sarr AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1.02 | 0.74 | 1.35 |
| Eberechi Eze AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Daniel Muñoz DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.02 | 1.16 |
| Chris Richards DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Jefferson Lerma MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.55 |
| Maxence Lacroix DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Marc Guehi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.37 |
| Dean Henderson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Adam Wharton MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.00 | 1.04 | 1.18 |
| Eddie Nketiah FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.15 | 1.22 |
| Tyrick Mitchell DML | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Daichi Kamada Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Ben Chilwell Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Romain Esse Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Justin Devenny Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Ipswich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Greaves DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Leif Davis DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.43 | 0.58 |
| Luke Woolfenden DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Kalvin Phillips DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| Dara O'Shea DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Alex Palmer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Liam Delap FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Jens Cajuste DMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Julio Enciso AMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| Jaden Philogene-Bidace AMR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.23 | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| Jack Clarke AML | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| Ben Johnson Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Omari Hutchinson Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Nathan Broadhead Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| George Hirst Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jack Taylor Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |