Crystal Palace v Leeds United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 15 March 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 10
On target
0 – 3
Shots in box
7 – 7
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.31 – 0.95
Goals − xG
-0.53 – -1.14
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Crystal Palace win
40.7%
Draw
30.2%
Leeds United win
29.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Crystal Palace have scored 12 from 13.7 expected and conceded 24 from 23.5 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LDLLLWLDWL last 10
scored 12
from 13.7 xG
conceded 24
from 23.5 xG
Leeds United are finishing below their chances — 3.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLWDDWDLD last 10
scored 11
from 14.4 xG
conceded 10
from 16.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.45–1.20 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.87–1.50 | 1-1 10% | 65% | 66% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Crystal Palace 0.53 xGLeeds United 1.14 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Crystal Palace attacking right
Leeds United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Leeds United |
Brenden Aaronson | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 5' |
 Crystal Palace |
Brennan Johnson | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 14' |
Leeds United |
Brenden Aaronson | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
Leeds United |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Joe Rodon |
| 21' |
Crystal Palace |
Jefferson Lerma | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Brennan Johnson |
| 24' |
Leeds United |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Anton Stach |
| 26' |
Crystal Palace |
Chris Richards | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Brennan Johnson |
| 27' |
Crystal Palace |
Maxence Lacroix | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Chris Richards |
| 41' |
Leeds United |
Ethan Ampadu | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Brenden Aaronson |
| 42' |
Leeds United |
Jaka Bijol | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Anton Stach |
| 44' |
Leeds United |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.76 | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — | |
| 48' |
Crystal Palace |
Evann Guessand | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 54' |
Leeds United |
Jaka Bijol | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Anton Stach |
| 56' |
Leeds United |
James Justin | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 69' |
Crystal Palace |
Maxence Lacroix | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jaydee Canvot |
| 70' |
Crystal Palace |
Adam Wharton | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 70' |
Crystal Palace |
Maxence Lacroix | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 76' |
Crystal Palace |
Adam Wharton | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Crystal Palace |
Yeremi Pino | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
Crystal Palace |
Maxence Lacroix | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Adam Wharton |
| 88' |
Leeds United |
Anton Stach | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 95' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Chris Richards |
Players
Crystal Palace
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maxence Lacroix DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Evann Guessand AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Chris Richards DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Jefferson Lerma MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tyrick Mitchell DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Ismaila Sarr AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Walter Benítez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Brennan Johnson DMR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.00 |
| Jaydee Canvot DC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Will Hughes MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Adam Wharton Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Yeremi Pino Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Daichi Kamada Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Leeds United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.92 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jaka Bijol DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Ethan Ampadu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| James Justin MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Anton Stach MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| Karl Darlow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joe Rodon DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Pascal Struijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Brenden Aaronson AMC | 52 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| Lukas Nmecha FW | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gabriel Gudmundsson ML | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jayden Bogle Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ilia Gruev Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |