Crystal Palace v Manchester United — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 December 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Crystal Palace

15:00 UTC

Manchester United

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 21 Oct, 11:05 · 1,252h before kick-off

Crystal Palace win

27.8%

model 29.2%

Draw

23.0%

model 23.2%

Manchester United win

49.2%

model 47.6%

282349

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.5%
1-2 9.4%
0-1 7.8%
2-1 7.1%
0-2 7.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	60.3%	Under 2.5	39.7%
BTTS yes	61.4%	BTTS no	38.6%
Crystal Palace 1+	73.9%	Crystal Palace 2+	38.9%
Manchester United 1+	83.1%	Manchester United 2+	53.0%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.78. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

83/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

87%

★ Best pick

Manchester United or draw (X2)

Double chance · usually 57%

72.6% fair odds 1.38

strong signal · 1941 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 87%

84.1% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 387 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Manchester United carry the stronger rating, 1686 Elo against 1529.
Manchester United have created 1.97 xG a match over their last five while Crystal Palace have allowed 2.35.
Away from home Manchester United average 1.64 xG a match.

Risk factors

The component models disagree more than usual (agreement 0.87).

Why the model thinks this

The price

Manchester United have an estimated 49.2% win probability, against 27.8% for Crystal Palace and 23.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.34 for Crystal Palace and 1.77 for Manchester United.

Why Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace have created 1.37 xG a match over their last five while Manchester United have allowed 1.45. At home Crystal Palace average 1.68 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.0%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Manchester United can win

Manchester United carry the stronger rating, 1686 Elo against 1529. Manchester United have created 1.97 xG a match over their last five while Crystal Palace have allowed 2.35. Away from home Manchester United average 1.64 xG a match.

Key players

Crystal Palace's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Jean-Philippe Mateta (0.45), Ismaila Sarr (0.39), Yeremi Pino (0.30). Manchester United's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Bruno Fernandes (0.67), Bryan Mbeumo (0.57), Benjamin Sesko (0.32).

Availability

2 of Crystal Palace's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Crystal Palace's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Manchester United's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Manchester United's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Crystal Palace: 43% possession, 10.4 shots a match, 18.2 faced, 0.35 xG a match from set pieces. Manchester United: 51% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.17 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-21 11:56 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-21 15:05 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Manchester United are the model's most likely outcome at 49.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.5%. Confidence 83/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Crystal Palace have scored 12 from 13.7 expected and conceded 24 from 23.5 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LDLLLWLDWL last 10 scored 12 from 13.7 xG conceded 24 from 23.5 xG

Manchester United are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DWWLWDLDDD last 10 scored 16 from 19.7 xG conceded 12 from 14.5 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	292348	1.34–1.78	0%	0%	0%
dc-goals	252549	1.22–1.77	1-1 12%	57%	59%
dc-xg	412435	1.65–1.50	1-1 11%	61%	63%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to win	40.4%	42.9%	32.3%	1.33×	2.33
Crystal Palace to win	37.1%	36.4%	43.0%	0.85×	2.75
Draw	22.5%	24.4%	24.8%	0.99×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United & both teams score	24.9%	21.8%	15.3%	1.42×	4.58
Crystal Palace & both teams score	23.1%	21.8%	22.9%	0.95×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	19.3%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.56
Manchester United & not both score	15.5%	18.0%	17.1%	1.05×	5.57
Crystal Palace & not both score	14.1%	13.3%	20.1%	0.66×	7.53
Draw & not both score	3.2%	4.9%	5.0%	0.98×	20.60

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United & over 1.5	34.7%	30.8%	25.3%	1.21×	3.25
Crystal Palace & over 1.5	31.7%	30.8%	36.6%	0.84×	3.25
Manchester United & over 2.5	29.7%	26.1%	19.8%	1.32×	3.84
Crystal Palace & over 2.5	27.1%	26.1%	30.3%	0.86×	3.84
Manchester United & under 3.5	21.9%	21.6%	21.9%	0.99×	4.63
Crystal Palace & under 3.5	20.5%	21.6%	26.6%	0.81×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.3%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.56
Manchester United & over 3.5	18.4%	18.0%	10.6%	1.70×	5.56
Crystal Palace & over 3.5	16.6%	18.0%	16.5%	1.09×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	12.8%	12.8%	16.3%	0.79×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	12.8%	12.8%	16.3%	0.79×	7.79
Manchester United & under 2.5	10.7%	12.8%	12.6%	1.02×	7.79
Crystal Palace & under 2.5	10.0%	7.9%	12.8%	0.62×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	9.8%	7.9%	8.6%	0.92×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	9.8%	7.9%	8.6%	0.92×	12.63
Crystal Palace & under 1.5	5.4%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.63
Manchester United & under 1.5	5.7%	7.9%	7.1%	1.12×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	3.2%	4.8%	5.0%	0.97×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (1UP)	59.9%	58.2%	51.5%	1.13×	1.72
Crystal Palace (1UP)	57.3%	58.0%	62.0%	0.94×	1.72

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (2UP)	40.4%	47.0%	34.5%	1.36×	2.13
Crystal Palace (2UP)	37.1%	37.4%	44.7%	0.84×	2.67

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to win 2nd half	38.0%	36.1%	32.8%	1.10×	2.77
Crystal Palace to win 2nd half	32.1%	34.3%	36.2%	0.95×	2.92
2nd half drawn	29.9%	25.8%	31.1%	0.83×	3.87

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United under 1.5 in 2nd half	69.5%	70.3%	79.9%	0.88×	1.42
Manchester United over 0.5 in 2nd half	67.0%	70.1%	57.8%	1.21×	1.43
Manchester United under 0.5 in 2nd half	33.0%	29.9%	42.2%	0.71×	3.35
Manchester United over 1.5 in 2nd half	30.5%	29.7%	20.1%	1.47×	3.37

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace under 1.5 in 2nd half	73.8%	74.0%	75.2%	0.98×	1.35
Crystal Palace over 0.5 in 2nd half	63.0%	63.2%	58.3%	1.08×	1.58
Crystal Palace under 0.5 in 2nd half	37.0%	36.8%	41.7%	0.88×	2.72
Crystal Palace over 1.5 in 2nd half	26.2%	26.0%	24.8%	1.05×	3.85

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (+2.5)	92.3%	92.1%	89.1%	1.03×	1.09
Manchester United (+1.5)	81.3%	82.5%	76.0%	1.09×	1.21
Manchester United (+0.5)	62.9%	62.9%	57.0%	1.10×	1.59
Crystal Palace (+0.5)	59.6%	57.1%	67.7%	0.84×	1.75
Manchester United (-0.5)	40.4%	42.9%	32.3%	1.33×	2.33
Crystal Palace (-0.5)	37.1%	37.1%	43.0%	0.86×	2.70
Crystal Palace (-1.5)	18.7%	17.5%	24.0%	0.73×	5.72
Crystal Palace (-2.5)	7.7%	7.9%	10.9%	0.72×	12.68

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to concede	81.3%	81.5%	78.1%	1.04×	1.23
Manchester United clean sheet	18.7%	18.5%	21.9%	0.84×	5.41

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United clean sheet in 1st half	50.6%	50.5%	48.8%	1.03×	1.98
Manchester United to concede in 1st half	49.4%	49.5%	51.2%	0.97×	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to concede in 2nd half	63.0%	61.7%	58.3%	1.06×	1.62
Manchester United clean sheet in 2nd half	37.0%	38.3%	41.7%	0.92×	2.61

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United over 2.5 corners	81.4%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Manchester United under 6.5 corners	73.7%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Manchester United over 3.5 corners	67.2%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Manchester United under 5.5 corners	62.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Manchester United over 4.5 corners	52.1%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Manchester United under 4.5 corners	47.9%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Manchester United over 5.5 corners	38.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Manchester United under 3.5 corners	32.8%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Manchester United over 6.5 corners	26.3%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Manchester United under 2.5 corners	18.6%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United under 3.5 goals	89.9%	87.8%	94.6%	0.93×	1.14
Manchester United over 0.5 goals	82.7%	81.5%	75.0%	1.09×	1.23
Manchester United under 2.5 goals	74.3%	71.9%	85.1%	0.85×	1.39
Manchester United over 1.5 goals	52.4%	53.5%	39.4%	1.36×	1.87
Manchester United under 1.5 goals	47.7%	46.5%	60.6%	0.77×	2.15
Manchester United over 2.5 goals	25.7%	28.1%	14.9%	1.88×	3.56
Manchester United under 0.5 goals	17.3%	18.5%	25.0%	0.74×	5.39
Manchester United over 3.5 goals	10.1%	12.2%	5.4%	2.27×	8.21

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United under 1.5 in 1st half	86.3%	89.2%	89.3%	1.00×	1.12
Manchester United under 0.5 in 1st half	52.5%	55.5%	59.7%	0.93×	1.80
Manchester United over 0.5 in 1st half	47.5%	44.5%	40.3%	1.11×	2.25
Manchester United over 1.5 in 1st half	13.7%	10.8%	10.7%	1.00×	9.30

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United scores more in 2nd half	46.7%	48.1%	40.8%	1.18×	2.08
Manchester United scores equally in both	32.1%	33.6%	37.5%	0.90×	2.97
Manchester United scores more in 1st half	21.3%	21.9%	21.7%	1.01×	4.56

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (away no bet)	62.2%	61.9%	63.5%	0.98×	1.62
Draw (away no bet)	37.8%	38.1%	36.5%	1.04×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United even goals	51.5%	52.6%	53.5%	0.98×	1.90
Manchester United odd goals	48.5%	47.4%	46.5%	1.02×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	76.2%	81.3%	80.0%	1.02×	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	23.8%	18.8%	20.0%	0.94×	5.33

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	76.6%	72.4%	70.1%	1.03×	1.38
Both halves under 1.5 goals	23.4%	27.6%	29.9%	0.93×	3.62

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	67.3%	62.4%	61.6%	1.01×	1.60
Manchester United to score 2+ in a row	40.7%	38.7%	29.7%	1.30×	2.59
Crystal Palace to score 2+ in a row	38.1%	36.6%	39.2%	0.94×	2.73
Either team to score 3+ in a row	27.5%	25.2%	26.1%	0.97×	3.97
Manchester United to score 3+ in a row	14.9%	12.1%	10.1%	1.20×	8.26
Crystal Palace to score 3+ in a row	13.3%	12.1%	16.4%	0.73×	8.29

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United corners (+3.5)	87.9%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Manchester United corners (+2.5)	81.6%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Crystal Palace corners (+3.5)	78.2%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Manchester United corners (+1.5)	73.2%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Crystal Palace corners (+2.5)	69.4%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Crystal Palace corners (+1.5)	59.1%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Manchester United corners (-1.5)	40.9%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Manchester United corners (-2.5)	30.6%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Crystal Palace corners (-1.5)	26.8%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Manchester United corners (-3.5)	21.8%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Crystal Palace corners (-2.5)	18.4%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Crystal Palace corners (-3.5)	12.1%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	45.5%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	29.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	25.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	81.5%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	74.6%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 10.5 corners	66.1%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	65.5%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 9.5 corners	56.2%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	54.5%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	45.5%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	43.8%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	34.6%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 10.5 corners	33.9%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	25.4%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	18.5%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	9.5%	7.4%	11.4%	0.65×	13.50
1-2	8.4%	7.4%	6.8%	1.08×	13.50
2-1	8.0%	7.4%	8.9%	0.83×	13.50
2-2	7.0%	7.4%	7.7%	0.97×	13.51
0-1	5.7%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.51
1-0	5.4%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.51
Any other score	6.0%	7.4%	4.4%	1.69×	13.51
0-2	5.0%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.29
1-3	4.9%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.29
0-0	3.2%	1.7%	5.0%	0.35×	58.30
0-3	2.9%	1.7%	2.6%	0.67×	58.30
0-4	1.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.60×	58.31
1-4	2.1%	1.7%	1.4%	1.22×	58.31
2-0	4.5%	1.7%	6.4%	0.27×	58.29
2-3	4.1%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.30
2-4	1.8%	1.7%	0.7%	2.60×	58.31
3-0	2.5%	1.7%	5.0%	0.34×	58.30
3-1	4.5%	1.7%	5.4%	0.32×	58.29
3-2	3.9%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.30
3-3	2.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.31×	58.31
3-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.5%	3.46×	58.31
4-0	1.1%	1.7%	1.3%	1.30×	58.31
4-1	1.9%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.31
4-2	1.6%	1.7%	1.3%	1.30×	58.31
4-3	1.0%	1.7%	0.9%	1.89×	58.31
4-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	5.20×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (2nd half DNB)	54.2%	53.0%	47.5%	1.12×	1.89
Crystal Palace (2nd half DNB)	45.8%	47.0%	52.5%	0.90×	2.13

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace leading at HT (DNB)	51.9%	54.8%	59.8%	0.92×	1.83
Manchester United leading at HT (DNB)	48.1%	45.2%	40.2%	1.12×	2.21

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace or Manchester United (12)	77.5%	75.6%	75.2%	1.00×	1.32
Manchester United or draw (X2)	62.9%	63.6%	57.0%	1.12×	1.57
Crystal Palace or draw (1X)	59.6%	57.1%	67.7%	0.84×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace or draw at HT	70.9%	75.0%	75.7%	0.99×	1.33
Manchester United or draw at HT	68.7%	66.7%	63.9%	1.04×	1.50
Crystal Palace or Manchester United at HT	60.4%	61.5%	60.2%	1.02×	1.63

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United or draw (1UP)	62.9%	71.7%	65.3%	1.10×	1.40
Crystal Palace or draw (1UP)	59.6%	63.2%	74.3%	0.85×	1.58

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace or Manchester United in 2nd half	70.1%	74.2%	68.9%	1.08×	1.35
Manchester United or draw in 2nd half	67.9%	65.7%	63.8%	1.03×	1.52
Crystal Palace or draw in 2nd half	62.0%	63.9%	67.2%	0.95×	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	57.6%	58.4%	57.1%	1.02×	1.71
Neither half drawn	42.4%	41.6%	42.9%	0.97×	2.41

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (DNB)	52.1%	50.9%	42.9%	1.19×	1.96
Crystal Palace (DNB)	47.9%	49.1%	57.1%	0.86×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to score first	49.5%	46.1%	43.3%	1.06×	2.17
Crystal Palace to score first	47.3%	46.0%	51.8%	0.89×	2.17
No goal scored	3.2%	4.3%	5.0%	0.86×	23.42

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	67.2%	58.5%	58.0%	1.01×	1.71
Not both teams to score	32.8%	41.5%	42.0%	0.99×	2.41

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	57.7%	47.6%	46.7%	1.02×	2.10
Not both score & under 2.5	23.9%	27.8%	30.2%	0.92×	3.60
Both score & under 2.5	9.5%	8.3%	11.4%	0.73×	12.06
Not both score & over 2.5	8.9%	8.3%	11.9%	0.70×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	73.9%	80.6%	82.1%	0.98×	1.24
Both teams to score 2+	26.1%	19.4%	17.9%	1.08×	5.16

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	57.8%	64.9%	68.6%	0.95×	1.54
Both teams to score in 2nd half	42.2%	35.1%	31.4%	1.12×	2.85

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	44.2%	50.7%	55.9%	0.91×	1.97
Both score 2nd half only	32.3%	27.2%	24.7%	1.10×	3.67
Both score 1st half only	13.6%	10.7%	12.8%	0.84×	9.34
Both score in both halves	9.9%	6.9%	6.8%	1.00×	14.57

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	76.5%	81.2%	80.4%	1.01×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	23.5%	18.8%	19.6%	0.96×	5.31

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	64.5%	59.9%	61.6%	0.97×	1.67
A half without a goal	35.5%	40.1%	38.4%	1.04×	2.49

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	40.8%	42.1%	46.3%	0.91×	2.38
4-6 goals	38.8%	35.1%	32.8%	1.07×	2.85
0-1 goals	14.3%	16.9%	18.3%	0.92×	5.91
7+ goals	6.0%	7.6%	2.8%	2.71×	13.16

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to score exactly 1	30.4%	33.8%	35.7%	0.95×	2.96
Manchester United to score exactly 2	26.6%	27.4%	24.5%	1.12×	3.66
Manchester United to score 3+	25.7%	27.4%	14.9%	1.83×	3.66
Manchester United to score exactly 0	17.3%	19.6%	25.0%	0.78×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace to score exactly 1	31.4%	32.5%	29.2%	1.11×	3.07
Crystal Palace to score exactly 2	26.3%	26.5%	26.1%	1.02×	3.77
Crystal Palace to score 3+	23.6%	23.3%	22.9%	1.02×	4.29
Crystal Palace to score exactly 0	18.7%	18.8%	21.9%	0.86×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	39.6%	38.5%	39.8%	0.97×	2.60
Crystal Palace leading at HT	31.3%	33.3%	36.1%	0.92×	3.00
Manchester United leading at HT	29.1%	25.0%	24.3%	1.03×	4.01

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United -1: 1	59.6%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Manchester United -1: 2	21.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Manchester United -1: X	19.3%	17.5%	—	—	5.70

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (0:1)	62.9%	61.4%	57.0%	1.08×	1.63
Crystal Palace (0:1)	18.7%	17.8%	24.0%	0.74×	5.61
Draw (0:1)	18.4%	17.8%	19.1%	0.94×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (0:2)	81.3%	82.9%	76.0%	1.09×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	11.0%	11.0%	13.2%	0.83×	9.10
Crystal Palace (0:2)	7.7%	7.7%	10.9%	0.70×	13.04

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (0:3)	92.3%	92.7%	89.1%	1.04×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.1%	5.8%	7.6%	0.76×	17.25
Crystal Palace (0:3)	2.6%	2.4%	3.4%	0.70×	42.08

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (0:4)	97.4%	98.1%	96.6%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.9%	1.2%	2.1%	0.59×	81.90
Crystal Palace (0:4)	0.8%	1.2%	1.4%	0.87×	82.02

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (1:0)	59.6%	58.4%	67.7%	0.86×	1.71
Manchester United (1:0)	21.1%	21.7%	15.7%	1.38×	4.61
Draw (1:0)	19.3%	17.1%	16.7%	1.02×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (2:0)	78.9%	80.5%	84.3%	0.95×	1.24
Draw (2:0)	12.1%	10.3%	9.2%	1.11×	9.72
Manchester United (2:0)	9.0%	6.4%	6.5%	0.98×	15.67

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	55.3%	57.4%	49.6%	1.16×	1.74
1st half highest scoring	23.8%	24.4%	25.8%	0.94×	4.10
Halves equal	20.9%	24.3%	24.7%	0.99×	4.12

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace to concede	82.7%	80.9%	75.0%	1.08×	1.24
Crystal Palace clean sheet	17.3%	19.1%	25.0%	0.76×	5.23

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace clean sheet in 1st half	52.5%	55.5%	59.7%	0.93×	1.80
Crystal Palace to concede in 1st half	47.5%	44.5%	40.3%	1.11×	2.25

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace to concede in 2nd half	67.0%	67.2%	57.8%	1.16×	1.49
Crystal Palace clean sheet in 2nd half	33.0%	32.8%	42.2%	0.78×	3.05

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace under 6.5 corners	82.5%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Crystal Palace over 2.5 corners	74.0%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Crystal Palace under 5.5 corners	72.4%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Crystal Palace under 4.5 corners	58.9%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Crystal Palace over 3.5 corners	57.2%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Crystal Palace under 3.5 corners	42.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Crystal Palace over 4.5 corners	41.1%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Crystal Palace over 5.5 corners	27.6%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Crystal Palace under 2.5 corners	26.0%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Crystal Palace over 6.5 corners	17.5%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace under 3.5 goals	91.0%	92.2%	91.5%	1.01×	1.08
Crystal Palace over 0.5 goals	81.3%	82.2%	78.1%	1.05×	1.22
Crystal Palace under 2.5 goals	76.4%	77.7%	77.1%	1.01×	1.29
Crystal Palace under 1.5 goals	50.1%	53.2%	51.1%	1.04×	1.88
Crystal Palace over 1.5 goals	49.9%	46.8%	48.9%	0.96×	2.14
Crystal Palace over 2.5 goals	23.6%	22.3%	22.9%	0.97×	4.49
Crystal Palace under 0.5 goals	18.7%	17.8%	21.9%	0.81×	5.62
Crystal Palace over 3.5 goals	9.0%	7.8%	8.5%	0.91×	12.87

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace under 1.5 in 1st half	85.1%	90.1%	84.4%	1.07×	1.11
Crystal Palace under 0.5 in 1st half	50.6%	50.3%	48.8%	1.03×	1.99
Crystal Palace over 0.5 in 1st half	49.4%	49.7%	51.2%	0.97×	2.01
Crystal Palace over 1.5 in 1st half	14.9%	9.9%	15.6%	0.64×	10.09

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace scores more in 2nd half	41.9%	42.1%	36.1%	1.17×	2.38
Crystal Palace scores equally in both	33.7%	33.0%	37.7%	0.87×	3.03
Crystal Palace scores more in 1st half	24.4%	21.3%	26.3%	0.81×	4.70

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (home no bet)	64.2%	60.0%	56.6%	1.06×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	35.8%	40.0%	43.4%	0.92×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace even goals	51.8%	50.7%	54.0%	0.94×	1.97
Crystal Palace odd goals	48.2%	49.3%	46.0%	1.07×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	26.6%	27.9%	28.1%	0.99×	3.58
HT 1-0	18.1%	18.6%	21.5%	0.86×	5.38
HT 0-1	17.1%	18.6%	14.8%	1.26×	5.38
HT 1-1	11.7%	11.0%	10.8%	1.02×	9.08
HT 2-0	6.2%	6.9%	8.0%	0.86×	14.50
Any other HT score	5.9%	6.9%	5.4%	1.27×	14.51
HT 0-2	5.5%	6.9%	4.4%	1.58×	14.51
HT 2-1	4.0%	2.4%	3.7%	0.64×	42.02
HT 1-2	3.8%	2.4%	2.9%	0.82×	42.03
HT 2-2	1.3%	2.4%	1.0%	2.39×	42.20

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace at HT / Crystal Palace at FT	21.7%	21.8%	26.4%	0.82×	4.59
Manchester United at HT / Manchester United at FT	21.5%	21.8%	16.7%	1.30×	4.59
Draw at HT / Manchester United at FT	15.0%	16.7%	12.3%	1.36×	5.99
Draw at HT / Crystal Palace at FT	12.7%	12.6%	13.9%	0.91×	7.91
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.8%	12.6%	13.8%	0.92×	7.91
Crystal Palace at HT / Draw at FT	5.9%	6.0%	6.4%	0.94×	16.66
Manchester United at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.5%	4.8%	0.73×	28.59
Crystal Palace at HT / Manchester United at FT	3.8%	3.5%	3.5%	1.01×	28.62
Manchester United at HT / Crystal Palace at FT	2.8%	3.5%	2.9%	1.21×	28.66

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to score last	49.5%	46.6%	45.1%	1.03×	2.15
Crystal Palace to score last	47.3%	46.5%	50.1%	0.93×	2.15
No goal scored	3.2%	4.3%	5.0%	0.86×	23.42

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.8%	95.7%	95.1%	1.01×	1.05
Manchester United to lead by 1 at any time	59.9%	55.0%	51.5%	1.07×	1.82
Crystal Palace to lead by 1 at any time	57.3%	54.9%	62.0%	0.88×	1.82
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	55.9%	54.8%	50.6%	1.08×	1.82
Manchester United to lead by 2 at any time	29.5%	25.6%	21.0%	1.22×	3.91
Crystal Palace to lead by 2 at any time	26.9%	25.5%	29.9%	0.85×	3.92
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	22.5%	19.7%	21.2%	0.93×	5.09
Manchester United to lead by 3 at any time	12.0%	10.5%	8.1%	1.29×	9.57
Crystal Palace to lead by 3 at any time	10.5%	10.4%	13.2%	0.79×	9.60

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United most corners	52.1%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Crystal Palace most corners	36.9%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Corners level	11.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	83.4%	83.4%	88.4%	0.94×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.7%	78.7%	79.0%	1.00×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.3%	72.4%	75.1%	0.96×	1.38
1-4 goals	70.6%	72.4%	77.9%	0.93×	1.38
3-6 goals	60.6%	63.3%	55.8%	1.14×	1.58
2-4 goals	59.5%	59.1%	64.5%	0.92×	1.69
3-5 goals	53.3%	53.2%	51.9%	1.02×	1.88
1-3 goals	51.9%	53.2%	59.7%	0.89×	1.88
2-3 goals	40.8%	43.6%	46.3%	0.94×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.5%	43.6%	41.3%	1.05×	2.30
4-6 goals	38.8%	39.2%	32.8%	1.20×	2.55
4-5 goals	31.5%	35.2%	28.9%	1.22×	2.84
1-2 goals	30.2%	35.2%	36.6%	0.96×	2.84
5-6 goals	20.2%	24.5%	14.5%	1.69×	4.09
7+ goals	6.0%	8.9%	2.8%	3.16×	11.27

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United never behind	39.5%	44.1%	38.0%	1.16×	2.27
Crystal Palace never behind	36.8%	44.0%	48.5%	0.91×	2.27

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	49.2%	1.04×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	50.8%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.5%	51.7%	53.5%	0.97×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.5%	48.3%	46.5%	1.04×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.7%	51.9%	51.9%	1.00×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.3%	48.1%	48.1%	1.00×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.8%	95.4%	95.1%	1.00×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	86.7%	87.6%	93.3%	0.94×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	85.7%	87.6%	81.7%	1.07×	1.14
Under 4.5 goals	73.9%	72.5%	82.8%	0.88×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	66.6%	66.3%	58.5%	1.13×	1.51
Under 3.5 goals	55.2%	58.6%	64.5%	0.91×	1.71
Over 3.5 goals	44.8%	41.4%	35.5%	1.17×	2.42
Under 2.5 goals	33.4%	33.7%	41.5%	0.81×	2.97
Over 4.5 goals	26.1%	27.5%	17.2%	1.60×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	14.3%	12.4%	18.3%	0.68×	8.06
Over 5.5 goals	13.3%	12.4%	6.7%	1.86×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	3.2%	4.6%	5.0%	0.92×	21.87

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	93.5%	92.4%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	84.7%	81.1%	92.5%	0.88×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	82.3%	81.1%	76.2%	1.06×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	67.9%	67.5%	78.9%	0.85×	1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	57.3%	55.8%	46.1%	1.21×	1.79
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	42.7%	44.2%	53.9%	0.82×	2.26
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	32.1%	32.5%	21.1%	1.54×	3.07
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	17.7%	18.9%	23.8%	0.79×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	15.3%	18.9%	7.5%	2.53×	5.29
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	6.5%	7.6%	2.9%	2.60×	13.16

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	85.1%	89.1%	87.2%	1.02×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	73.4%	71.9%	71.9%	1.00×	1.39
Under 1.5 in 1st half	61.8%	63.2%	64.3%	0.98×	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	38.2%	36.8%	35.7%	1.03×	2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half	26.6%	28.1%	28.1%	1.00×	3.55
Over 2.5 in 1st half	14.9%	10.9%	12.8%	0.85×	9.18

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	87.8%	85.5%	84.7%	1.01×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	64.8%	61.7%	75.7%	0.82×	1.62
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	62.2%	61.6%	54.4%	1.13×	1.62
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	37.8%	38.4%	45.6%	0.84×	2.60
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	35.2%	38.3%	24.3%	1.58×	2.61
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	12.2%	14.5%	15.3%	0.95×	6.91

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace not to score in both halves	68.9%	69.9%	68.6%	1.02×	1.43
Manchester United not to score in both halves	68.1%	69.9%	76.9%	0.91×	1.43
Manchester United to score in both halves	31.9%	30.1%	23.1%	1.30×	3.32
Crystal Palace to score in both halves	31.1%	30.1%	31.4%	0.96×	3.33

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	67.2%	59.9%	58.0%	1.03×	1.67
Only Manchester United scores	15.5%	16.0%	17.1%	0.94×	6.25
Only Crystal Palace scores	14.1%	11.0%	20.1%	0.55×	9.05
Neither team scores	3.2%	4.6%	5.0%	0.93×	21.71

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	21.8%	22.6%	23.1%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	19.1%	17.5%	23.3%	0.75×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	18.7%	17.5%	18.3%	0.95×	5.73
6 or more goals	13.3%	12.1%	6.7%	1.82×	8.24
Exactly 5 goals	12.8%	12.1%	10.6%	1.14×	8.24
Exactly 1 goals	11.1%	12.1%	13.4%	0.90×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	3.2%	4.5%	5.0%	0.90×	22.39

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.2%	37.4%	36.2%	1.03×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	26.6%	28.2%	28.1%	1.00×	3.54
2 goals in 1st half	23.3%	21.5%	23.0%	0.94×	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	14.9%	10.8%	12.8%	0.85×	9.25

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	62.2%	58.6%	54.4%	1.08×	1.71
1 goal in 2nd half	25.7%	29.2%	30.4%	0.96×	3.42
No goals in 2nd half	12.2%	14.3%	15.3%	0.93×	7.01

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace not to win both halves	89.9%	88.0%	86.4%	1.02×	1.14
Manchester United not to win both halves	88.9%	87.9%	91.3%	0.96×	1.14
Manchester United to win both halves	11.1%	12.1%	8.7%	1.39×	8.28
Crystal Palace to win both halves	10.1%	12.0%	13.6%	0.88×	8.31

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to win either half	56.1%	59.0%	48.4%	1.22×	1.70
Crystal Palace to win either half	53.4%	54.3%	58.7%	0.93×	1.84
Crystal Palace to win neither half	46.6%	45.7%	41.3%	1.10×	2.19
Manchester United to win neither half	43.9%	41.0%	51.7%	0.79×	2.44

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace not to win to nil	85.9%	88.1%	79.9%	1.10×	1.14
Manchester United not to win to nil	84.5%	83.1%	82.9%	1.00×	1.20
Manchester United to win to nil	15.5%	16.9%	17.1%	0.99×	5.92
Crystal Palace to win to nil	14.1%	11.9%	20.1%	0.59×	8.40

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	22.5%	24.1%	24.8%	0.97×	4.15
Manchester United by 1	19.3%	17.1%	16.7%	1.02×	5.86
Crystal Palace by 1	18.4%	17.1%	19.1%	0.89×	5.87
Manchester United by 2	12.1%	11.8%	9.2%	1.27×	8.51
Crystal Palace by 2	11.0%	11.8%	13.2%	0.89×	8.51
Manchester United by 3+	9.0%	7.2%	6.5%	1.10×	13.90
Crystal Palace by 3+	7.7%	7.2%	10.9%	0.66×	13.91