Crystal Palace v Manchester United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 21 September 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 15
On target
4 – 6
Shots in box
7 – 10
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.04 – 0.64
Goals − xG
-1.70 – -2.45
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Crystal Palace win
55.8%
Draw
22.0%
Manchester United win
22.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Crystal Palace are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLDLLLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.7 xG
conceded 23
from 20.8 xG
Manchester United have scored 20 from 20.9 expected and conceded 13 from 14.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWWDWWLWD last 10
scored 20
from 20.9 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.94–1.14 | 1-1 10% | 59% | 58% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Crystal Palace 1.70 xGManchester United 2.45 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Crystal Palace attacking right
Manchester United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Manchester United |
Matthijs de Ligt | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 9' |
Manchester United |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Joshua Zirkzee |
| 12' |
Manchester United |
Matthijs de Ligt | 0.43 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 13' |
Manchester United |
Lisandro Martínez | 0.60 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 26' |
Manchester United |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Diogo Dalot |
| 26' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 32' |
Manchester United |
Joshua Zirkzee | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 34' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 40' |
Manchester United |
Kobbie Mainoo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 43' |
 Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tyrick Mitchell |
| 45' |
Crystal Palace |
Eddie Nketiah | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jean-Philippe Mateta |
| 49' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 50' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 51' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Joshua Zirkzee |
| 62' |
Manchester United |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Diogo Dalot |
| 62' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 64' |
Crystal Palace |
Eddie Nketiah | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jefferson Lerma |
| 64' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.52 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 64' |
Crystal Palace |
Jefferson Lerma | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Eberechi Eze |
| 67' |
Manchester United |
Matthijs de Ligt | 0.06 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Diogo Dalot |
| 71' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ismaila Sarr |
| 78' |
Crystal Palace |
Will Hughes | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Daniel Muñoz |
| 82' |
Crystal Palace |
Maxence Lacroix | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Eberechi Eze |
| 91' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jeffrey Schlupp |
Players
Crystal Palace
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eberechi Eze AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.73 | 0.04 | 0.73 |
| Maxence Lacroix DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Tyrick Mitchell DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.65 |
| Chris Richards DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Daichi Kamada MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.06 |
| Daniel Muñoz DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.48 |
| Dean Henderson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marc Guehi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.82 |
| Eddie Nketiah AMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta FW | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Adam Wharton MC | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ismaila Sarr Sub | 44 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.84 | 0.40 | 1.24 |
| Jefferson Lerma Sub | 44 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.46 |
| Will Hughes Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jeffrey Schlupp Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.32 |
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Garnacho AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.66 | 0.00 | 0.97 |
| Lisandro Martínez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.79 |
| Matthijs de Ligt DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Bruno Fernandes AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.46 | 0.06 | 0.82 |
| Kobbie Mainoo DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| André Onana GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Diogo Dalot DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.71 |
| Noussair Mazraoui DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Amad Diallo Traore AMR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| Christian Eriksen DMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.52 | 1.29 |
| Joshua Zirkzee FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| Marcus Rashford Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Manuel Ugarte Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rasmus Højlund Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |