Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 11 October 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 02:09

Crystal Palace

09:00

Nottingham Forest

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 7 Sep, 07:51 · 821h before kick-off

Crystal Palace win

47.1%

model 44.5%

Draw

22.8%

model 23.5%

Nottingham Forest win

30.1%

model 32.0%

472330

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (487 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.6%
2-1 9.1%
1-2 7.5%
1-0 7.5%
2-2 6.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	60.6%	Under 2.5	39.4%
BTTS yes	62.1%	BTTS no	37.9%
Crystal Palace 1+	81.9%	Crystal Palace 2+	51.0%
Nottingham Forest 1+	75.9%	Nottingham Forest 2+	41.5%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.42. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

91/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Odd number of goals

Odd/Even · usually 49%

50.4% fair odds 1.99

moderate signal · 2377 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Crystal Palace over 0.5 goals

Home goals O/U · usually 78%

82.8% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 1110 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Crystal Palace have created 1.57 xG a match over their last five while Nottingham Forest have allowed 1.52.
At home Crystal Palace average 1.82 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Crystal Palace have an estimated 47.1% win probability, against 30.1% for Nottingham Forest and 22.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.71 for Crystal Palace and 1.42 for Nottingham Forest.

Why Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace have created 1.57 xG a match over their last five while Nottingham Forest have allowed 1.52. At home Crystal Palace average 1.82 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.8%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Nottingham Forest can win

Nottingham Forest carry the stronger rating, 1573 Elo against 1528. Nottingham Forest have created 1.59 xG a match over their last five while Crystal Palace have allowed 2.08. Away from home Nottingham Forest average 2.02 xG a match.

Key players

Crystal Palace's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Jean-Philippe Mateta (0.46), Ismaila Sarr (0.44), Yeremi Pino (0.32). Nottingham Forest's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Morgan Gibbs-White (0.42), Igor Jesus (0.30), Chris Wood (0.29).

Availability

2 of Crystal Palace's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Crystal Palace's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Nottingham Forest's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Crystal Palace: 40% possession, 10.8 shots a match, 18.0 faced, 0.18 xG a match from set pieces. Nottingham Forest: 45% possession, 12.4 shots a match, 16.4 faced, 0.49 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Crystal Palace are the model's most likely outcome at 47.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.6%. Confidence 91/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Crystal Palace are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

DLLDLDLLLW last 10 scored 10 from 15.7 xG conceded 23 from 20.8 xG

Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DWWWDLDLDD last 10 scored 19 from 15.9 xG conceded 11 from 15.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	452332	1.71–1.42	0%	0%	0%
dc-goals	302941	1.14–1.37	1-1 14%	46%	52%
dc-xg	472528	1.61–1.17	1-1 12%	52%	55%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace to win	49.8%	47.5%	43.1%	1.10×	2.11
Nottingham Forest to win	27.3%	27.9%	32.3%	0.86×	3.59
Draw	22.9%	24.5%	24.7%	0.99×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace & both teams score	26.8%	25.2%	22.9%	1.10×	3.97
Crystal Palace & not both score	23.0%	21.9%	20.3%	1.08×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	18.5%	17.9%	20.0%	0.90×	5.58
Nottingham Forest & both teams score	15.5%	17.9%	15.5%	1.15×	5.58
Nottingham Forest & not both score	11.8%	13.3%	16.8%	0.79×	7.55
Draw & not both score	4.4%	4.9%	4.9%	1.00×	20.55

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace & over 1.5	41.7%	40.3%	36.7%	1.10×	2.48
Crystal Palace & over 2.5	34.4%	30.9%	30.2%	1.02×	3.24
Crystal Palace & under 3.5	29.4%	26.0%	26.8%	0.97×	3.84
Nottingham Forest & over 1.5	21.5%	21.7%	25.4%	0.85×	4.62
Crystal Palace & over 3.5	20.4%	21.7%	16.4%	1.32×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	18.5%	18.0%	20.0%	0.90×	5.56
Nottingham Forest & over 2.5	17.8%	18.0%	20.0%	0.90×	5.56
Nottingham Forest & under 3.5	17.8%	18.0%	21.7%	0.83×	5.56
Crystal Palace & under 2.5	15.4%	18.0%	13.0%	1.39×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	14.9%	12.9%	16.3%	0.79×	7.77
Draw & under 3.5	14.9%	12.9%	16.3%	0.79×	7.77
Nottingham Forest & under 2.5	9.5%	7.9%	12.4%	0.64×	12.69
Nottingham Forest & over 3.5	9.4%	7.9%	10.7%	0.74×	12.69
Crystal Palace & under 1.5	8.1%	7.9%	6.5%	1.21×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	8.0%	7.9%	8.5%	0.92×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	8.0%	7.9%	8.5%	0.92×	12.70
Nottingham Forest & under 1.5	5.7%	7.9%	6.9%	1.14×	12.70
Draw & under 1.5	4.4%	4.8%	4.9%	0.98×	20.93

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (1UP)	66.0%	69.8%	62.1%	1.12×	1.43
Nottingham Forest (1UP)	46.9%	43.2%	51.4%	0.84×	2.32

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (2UP)	49.8%	50.0%	44.9%	1.11×	2.00
Nottingham Forest (2UP)	27.3%	24.9%	34.5%	0.72×	4.02

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace to win 2nd half	44.8%	41.2%	36.3%	1.13×	2.43
2nd half drawn	31.8%	34.5%	30.9%	1.12×	2.90
Nottingham Forest to win 2nd half	23.4%	23.2%	32.9%	0.71×	4.32

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest (+2.5)	87.5%	88.5%	89.2%	0.99×	1.13
Crystal Palace (+0.5)	72.7%	73.7%	67.7%	1.09×	1.36
Nottingham Forest (+1.5)	72.4%	73.7%	76.0%	0.97×	1.36
Nottingham Forest (+0.5)	50.2%	52.3%	56.9%	0.92×	1.91
Crystal Palace (-0.5)	49.8%	47.7%	43.1%	1.11×	2.10
Crystal Palace (-1.5)	27.6%	26.3%	24.0%	1.10×	3.80
Nottingham Forest (-0.5)	27.3%	26.3%	32.3%	0.82×	3.80
Crystal Palace (-2.5)	12.5%	11.5%	10.8%	1.07×	8.70

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest to concede	83.8%	81.3%	78.4%	1.04×	1.23
Nottingham Forest clean sheet	16.2%	18.7%	21.6%	0.86×	5.36

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest clean sheet in 1st half	48.9%	50.8%	48.6%	1.04×	1.97
Nottingham Forest to concede in 1st half	51.1%	49.2%	51.4%	0.96×	2.03

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest under 6.5 corners	80.0%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Nottingham Forest over 2.5 corners	76.4%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Nottingham Forest under 5.5 corners	69.3%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Nottingham Forest over 3.5 corners	60.4%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Nottingham Forest under 4.5 corners	55.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Nottingham Forest over 4.5 corners	44.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Nottingham Forest under 3.5 corners	39.6%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Nottingham Forest over 5.5 corners	30.7%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Nottingham Forest under 2.5 corners	23.6%	24.1%	—	—	4.16
Nottingham Forest over 6.5 corners	20.0%	18.6%	—	—	5.39

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest under 3.5 goals	95.7%	97.5%	94.5%	1.03×	1.03
Nottingham Forest under 2.5 goals	85.8%	87.9%	85.0%	1.03×	1.14
Nottingham Forest over 0.5 goals	72.6%	72.0%	74.9%	0.96×	1.39
Nottingham Forest under 1.5 goals	62.9%	63.0%	60.6%	1.04×	1.59
Nottingham Forest over 1.5 goals	37.1%	37.0%	39.4%	0.94×	2.70
Nottingham Forest under 0.5 goals	27.4%	28.0%	25.1%	1.12×	3.57
Nottingham Forest over 2.5 goals	14.2%	12.1%	15.0%	0.81×	8.24
Nottingham Forest over 3.5 goals	4.3%	2.5%	5.5%	0.45×	40.65

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest under 1.5 in 1st half	88.3%	89.1%	89.2%	1.00×	1.12
Nottingham Forest under 0.5 in 1st half	55.7%	62.3%	59.4%	1.05×	1.61
Nottingham Forest over 0.5 in 1st half	44.3%	37.8%	40.6%	0.93×	2.65
Nottingham Forest over 1.5 in 1st half	11.7%	10.9%	10.8%	1.01×	9.17

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (away no bet)	68.5%	66.4%	63.5%	1.05×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	31.5%	33.6%	36.5%	0.92×	2.98

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest even goals	53.8%	52.8%	53.7%	0.98×	1.89
Nottingham Forest odd goals	46.2%	47.2%	46.3%	1.02×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	79.8%	82.3%	80.1%	1.03×	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	20.2%	17.7%	19.9%	0.89×	5.66

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	71.3%	67.2%	70.2%	0.96×	1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals	28.7%	32.8%	29.8%	1.10×	3.05

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	63.0%	59.9%	61.4%	0.98×	1.67
Crystal Palace to score 2+ in a row	44.8%	38.5%	39.1%	0.98×	2.60
Nottingham Forest to score 2+ in a row	26.8%	25.0%	29.9%	0.84×	4.00
Either team to score 3+ in a row	25.0%	19.6%	26.2%	0.75×	5.11
Crystal Palace to score 3+ in a row	18.0%	16.4%	16.5%	0.99×	6.12
Nottingham Forest to score 3+ in a row	7.4%	5.7%	10.2%	0.56×	17.69

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace corners (+3.5)	84.4%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Nottingham Forest corners (+3.5)	83.2%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Crystal Palace corners (+2.5)	76.9%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Nottingham Forest corners (+2.5)	75.4%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Crystal Palace corners (+1.5)	67.6%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Nottingham Forest corners (+1.5)	65.7%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Crystal Palace corners (-1.5)	34.3%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Nottingham Forest corners (-1.5)	32.4%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Crystal Palace corners (-2.5)	24.6%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Nottingham Forest corners (-2.5)	23.1%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Crystal Palace corners (-3.5)	16.8%	20.3%	—	—	4.94
Nottingham Forest corners (-3.5)	15.6%	20.3%	—	—	4.94

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	47.7%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	28.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	23.6%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	83.1%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	76.4%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	68.2%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	63.4%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	58.5%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	52.3%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	47.7%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	41.5%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	36.6%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 10.5 corners	31.8%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	23.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Over 12.5 corners	16.9%	19.2%	—	—	5.20

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.5%	11.5%	11.5%	0.99×	8.73
2-1	9.5%	7.4%	9.0%	0.83×	13.48
1-0	8.1%	7.4%	6.5%	1.14×	13.48
1-2	6.8%	7.4%	6.9%	1.07×	13.48
2-0	7.4%	7.4%	6.6%	1.13×	13.48
0-1	5.7%	7.4%	6.9%	1.07×	13.48
2-2	6.2%	7.4%	7.6%	0.98×	13.48
3-1	5.8%	7.4%	5.5%	1.36×	13.48
Any other score	4.8%	1.7%	4.2%	0.41×	58.46
0-0	4.4%	1.7%	4.9%	0.35×	58.46
0-2	3.7%	1.7%	5.5%	0.31×	58.47
0-3	1.6%	1.7%	2.6%	0.67×	58.48
0-4	0.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.49
1-3	2.9%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.47
1-4	0.9%	1.7%	1.5%	1.18×	58.48
2-3	2.7%	1.7%	2.4%	0.72×	58.47
2-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.7%	2.50×	58.48
3-0	4.5%	1.7%	5.0%	0.34×	58.46
3-2	3.7%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.47
3-3	1.6%	1.7%	0.8%	2.23×	58.48
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.5%	3.34×	58.49
4-0	2.0%	1.7%	1.4%	1.25×	58.48
4-1	2.6%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.47
4-2	1.7%	1.7%	1.4%	1.25×	58.48
4-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.9%	1.82×	58.49
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.01×	58.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace leading at HT (DNB)	56.7%	57.7%	59.6%	0.97×	1.73
Nottingham Forest leading at HT (DNB)	43.3%	42.3%	40.4%	1.05×	2.37

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace or Nottingham Forest (12)	77.1%	75.5%	75.3%	1.00×	1.32
Crystal Palace or draw (1X)	72.7%	72.1%	67.7%	1.06×	1.39
Nottingham Forest or draw (X2)	50.2%	52.5%	56.9%	0.92×	1.91

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace or draw at HT	74.0%	74.4%	75.5%	0.99×	1.34
Nottingham Forest or draw at HT	65.9%	66.4%	63.8%	1.04×	1.51
Crystal Palace or Nottingham Forest at HT	60.1%	62.0%	60.6%	1.02×	1.61

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace or draw (1UP)	72.7%	80.2%	74.4%	1.08×	1.25
Nottingham Forest or draw (1UP)	50.2%	59.1%	65.2%	0.91×	1.69

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace or draw in 2nd half	76.6%	76.8%	67.2%	1.14×	1.30
Crystal Palace or Nottingham Forest in 2nd half	68.2%	65.5%	69.1%	0.95×	1.53
Nottingham Forest or draw in 2nd half	55.2%	58.8%	63.7%	0.92×	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	59.0%	58.1%	56.7%	1.02×	1.72
Neither half drawn	41.0%	41.9%	43.3%	0.97×	2.39

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (DNB)	64.6%	62.9%	57.2%	1.10×	1.59
Nottingham Forest (DNB)	35.4%	37.1%	42.8%	0.87×	2.69

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace to score first	55.9%	61.8%	52.0%	1.19×	1.62
Nottingham Forest to score first	39.7%	33.0%	43.3%	0.76×	3.03
No goal scored	4.4%	4.3%	4.9%	0.89×	23.20

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	60.9%	56.5%	58.2%	0.97×	1.77
Not both teams to score	39.1%	43.5%	41.8%	1.04×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	50.4%	47.0%	46.8%	1.01×	2.13
Not both score & under 2.5	29.3%	33.6%	30.0%	1.12×	2.98
Both score & under 2.5	10.5%	12.3%	11.5%	1.07×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	9.8%	8.4%	11.9%	0.71×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	79.8%	80.0%	82.2%	0.97×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	20.2%	20.0%	17.8%	1.12×	5.00

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	66.0%	67.5%	68.9%	0.98×	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	34.0%	32.5%	31.1%	1.04×	3.08

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	51.1%	55.8%	55.9%	1.00×	1.79
Both score 2nd half only	26.3%	26.5%	24.6%	1.08×	3.78
Both score 1st half only	14.9%	10.8%	13.1%	0.83×	9.26
Both score in both halves	7.7%	6.8%	6.7%	1.02×	14.72

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	77.4%	81.5%	80.4%	1.01×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	22.6%	18.5%	19.6%	0.94×	5.40

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	60.9%	58.8%	61.9%	0.95×	1.70
A half without a goal	39.1%	41.2%	38.1%	1.08×	2.43

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	43.9%	42.1%	46.6%	0.90×	2.37
4-6 goals	33.9%	30.8%	32.7%	0.94×	3.25
0-1 goals	18.3%	20.2%	18.1%	1.12×	4.96
7+ goals	4.0%	1.8%	2.8%	0.65×	54.39

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest to score exactly 1	35.5%	36.0%	35.6%	1.01×	2.78
Nottingham Forest to score exactly 0	27.4%	27.4%	25.1%	1.09×	3.65
Nottingham Forest to score exactly 2	23.0%	22.4%	24.5%	0.92×	4.46
Nottingham Forest to score 3+	14.2%	12.8%	15.0%	0.85×	7.80

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace to score exactly 1	29.5%	26.5%	29.6%	0.90×	3.77
Crystal Palace to score 3+	27.5%	26.5%	22.9%	1.16×	3.77
Crystal Palace to score exactly 2	26.8%	26.5%	26.1%	1.02×	3.77
Crystal Palace to score exactly 0	16.2%	18.9%	21.6%	0.88×	5.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	39.9%	38.0%	39.4%	0.96×	2.63
Crystal Palace leading at HT	34.1%	33.6%	36.2%	0.93×	2.97
Nottingham Forest leading at HT	26.0%	25.6%	24.5%	1.05×	3.91

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace -1: 2	50.2%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Crystal Palace -1: 1	27.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Crystal Palace -1: X	22.2%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest (0:1)	50.2%	51.1%	56.9%	0.90×	1.96
Crystal Palace (0:1)	27.6%	27.0%	24.0%	1.13×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	22.2%	24.3%	19.2%	1.26×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest (0:2)	72.4%	75.7%	76.0%	1.00×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	15.1%	15.3%	13.3%	1.15×	6.55
Crystal Palace (0:2)	12.5%	11.0%	10.8%	1.02×	9.12

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest (0:3)	87.5%	90.8%	89.2%	1.02×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	7.8%	5.8%	7.5%	0.78×	17.15
Crystal Palace (0:3)	4.7%	2.4%	3.3%	0.71×	42.05

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest (0:4)	95.3%	98.1%	96.7%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	3.2%	1.2%	2.0%	0.59×	83.30
Crystal Palace (0:4)	1.5%	1.2%	1.4%	0.88×	83.51

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (1:0)	72.7%	72.5%	67.7%	1.07×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	15.8%	17.0%	16.6%	1.03×	5.88
Nottingham Forest (1:0)	11.5%	12.8%	15.8%	0.81×	7.81

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (2:0)	88.5%	88.4%	84.2%	1.05×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	7.6%	6.5%	9.3%	0.69×	15.48
Nottingham Forest (2:0)	3.9%	2.3%	6.6%	0.35×	44.12

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	49.6%	48.2%	49.7%	0.97×	2.08
1st half highest scoring	27.5%	26.5%	25.8%	1.03×	3.77
Halves equal	23.0%	24.1%	24.7%	0.98×	4.15

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace to concede	72.6%	73.1%	74.9%	0.98×	1.37
Crystal Palace clean sheet	27.4%	26.9%	25.1%	1.07×	3.71

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace clean sheet in 1st half	55.7%	62.3%	59.4%	1.05×	1.61
Crystal Palace to concede in 1st half	44.3%	37.8%	40.6%	0.93×	2.65

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace under 6.5 corners	78.9%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Crystal Palace over 2.5 corners	77.3%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Crystal Palace under 5.5 corners	68.0%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Crystal Palace over 3.5 corners	61.7%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Crystal Palace under 4.5 corners	54.2%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
Crystal Palace over 4.5 corners	45.8%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Crystal Palace under 3.5 corners	38.3%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Crystal Palace over 5.5 corners	32.0%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Crystal Palace under 2.5 corners	22.7%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Crystal Palace over 6.5 corners	21.1%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace under 3.5 goals	88.8%	87.3%	91.6%	0.95×	1.15
Crystal Palace over 0.5 goals	83.8%	82.1%	78.4%	1.05×	1.22
Crystal Palace under 2.5 goals	72.5%	74.2%	77.1%	0.96×	1.35
Crystal Palace over 1.5 goals	54.3%	53.3%	48.9%	1.09×	1.88
Crystal Palace under 1.5 goals	45.7%	46.7%	51.1%	0.91×	2.14
Crystal Palace over 2.5 goals	27.5%	25.8%	22.9%	1.13×	3.87
Crystal Palace under 0.5 goals	16.2%	17.9%	21.6%	0.83×	5.59
Crystal Palace over 3.5 goals	11.2%	12.7%	8.4%	1.52×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace under 1.5 in 1st half	83.9%	84.3%	84.5%	1.00×	1.19
Crystal Palace under 0.5 in 1st half	48.9%	50.9%	48.6%	1.05×	1.96
Crystal Palace over 0.5 in 1st half	51.1%	49.1%	51.4%	0.96×	2.04
Crystal Palace over 1.5 in 1st half	16.1%	15.7%	15.5%	1.01×	6.39

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest (home no bet)	54.3%	51.7%	56.6%	0.91×	1.94
Draw (home no bet)	45.7%	48.3%	43.4%	1.11×	2.07

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace even goals	51.3%	50.6%	53.8%	0.94×	1.98
Crystal Palace odd goals	48.7%	49.4%	46.2%	1.07×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	27.3%	28.8%	27.6%	1.04×	3.47
HT 1-0	19.5%	18.8%	21.8%	0.86×	5.33
HT 0-1	15.9%	18.7%	14.8%	1.26×	5.35
HT 1-1	11.4%	10.9%	10.9%	1.00×	9.16
HT 2-0	7.0%	7.1%	8.1%	0.88×	14.05
Any other HT score	5.7%	7.1%	5.3%	1.34×	14.07
HT 0-2	4.7%	2.3%	4.5%	0.51×	43.27
HT 2-1	4.1%	2.3%	3.8%	0.62×	43.31
HT 1-2	3.3%	2.3%	2.8%	0.82×	43.37
HT 2-2	1.2%	2.3%	1.0%	2.24×	43.52

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace at HT / Crystal Palace at FT	27.9%	26.8%	26.3%	1.02×	3.73
Draw at HT / Crystal Palace at FT	17.9%	16.8%	14.0%	1.20×	5.96
Nottingham Forest at HT / Nottingham Forest at FT	16.2%	16.8%	16.9%	0.99×	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.7%	12.7%	13.6%	0.93×	7.89
Draw at HT / Nottingham Forest at FT	9.3%	6.0%	12.0%	0.50×	16.61
Nottingham Forest at HT / Draw at FT	5.8%	6.0%	4.8%	1.25×	16.71
Crystal Palace at HT / Draw at FT	4.4%	3.5%	6.6%	0.53×	28.79
Nottingham Forest at HT / Crystal Palace at FT	4.0%	3.5%	3.0%	1.16×	28.81
Crystal Palace at HT / Nottingham Forest at FT	1.7%	3.5%	3.5%	0.99×	28.90

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace to score last	55.9%	56.4%	50.3%	1.12×	1.77
Nottingham Forest to score last	39.7%	38.7%	44.9%	0.86×	2.59
No goal scored	4.4%	4.3%	4.9%	0.89×	23.20

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.6%	95.6%	95.1%	1.01×	1.05
Crystal Palace to lead by 1 at any time	66.0%	69.4%	62.1%	1.12×	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	52.8%	50.7%	50.8%	1.00×	1.97
Nottingham Forest to lead by 1 at any time	46.9%	44.0%	51.4%	0.86×	2.27
Crystal Palace to lead by 2 at any time	35.3%	34.8%	29.9%	1.16×	2.88
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	21.0%	19.6%	21.2%	0.93×	5.11
Nottingham Forest to lead by 2 at any time	17.8%	14.9%	21.2%	0.70×	6.70
Crystal Palace to lead by 3 at any time	15.5%	14.9%	13.1%	1.13×	6.72
Nottingham Forest to lead by 3 at any time	5.6%	6.6%	8.1%	0.81×	15.15

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace most corners	45.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Nottingham Forest most corners	43.3%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	11.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.61

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.0%	87.4%	88.5%	0.99×	1.14
2-6 goals	77.8%	78.6%	79.2%	0.99×	1.27
1-4 goals	75.1%	78.6%	78.2%	1.01×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.2%	72.4%	75.3%	0.96×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.3%	63.4%	64.9%	0.98×	1.58
1-3 goals	57.7%	59.2%	59.8%	0.99×	1.69
3-6 goals	56.3%	59.2%	55.8%	1.06×	1.69
3-5 goals	50.6%	53.2%	51.9%	1.03×	1.88
2-3 goals	43.9%	43.6%	46.6%	0.94×	2.30
3-4 goals	39.8%	39.2%	41.6%	0.94×	2.55
1-2 goals	35.3%	39.1%	36.7%	1.07×	2.56
4-6 goals	33.9%	35.4%	32.7%	1.08×	2.83
4-5 goals	28.3%	30.3%	28.8%	1.05×	3.31
5-6 goals	16.5%	18.6%	14.3%	1.30×	5.37
7+ goals	4.0%	2.6%	2.8%	0.91×	39.15

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace never behind	48.6%	56.6%	48.6%	1.16×	1.77
Nottingham Forest never behind	29.6%	30.2%	37.9%	0.80×	3.31

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.8%	49.0%	1.04×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.2%	51.0%	0.96×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.7%	51.7%	53.4%	0.97×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.3%	48.3%	46.6%	1.04×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.3%	52.0%	51.8%	1.01×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.7%	48.0%	48.2%	0.99×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.6%	95.5%	95.1%	1.00×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	90.4%	92.3%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Over 1.5 goals	81.7%	82.4%	81.9%	1.01×	1.21
Under 4.5 goals	79.6%	77.4%	82.9%	0.93×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	62.1%	61.8%	64.6%	0.96×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	60.2%	61.7%	58.5%	1.05×	1.62
Under 2.5 goals	39.8%	38.3%	41.5%	0.92×	2.61
Over 3.5 goals	37.9%	38.2%	35.4%	1.08×	2.62
Over 4.5 goals	20.4%	22.6%	17.1%	1.33×	4.42
Under 1.5 goals	18.3%	17.6%	18.1%	0.97×	5.67
Over 5.5 goals	9.6%	7.7%	6.7%	1.15×	12.91
Under 0.5 goals	4.4%	4.5%	4.9%	0.93×	22.19

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.8%	97.2%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	89.2%	86.8%	92.5%	0.94×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	76.7%	75.9%	76.4%	0.99×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	75.2%	75.9%	79.1%	0.96×	1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	51.2%	51.8%	53.9%	0.96×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	48.8%	48.2%	46.1%	1.05×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	24.8%	24.1%	20.9%	1.15×	4.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	23.3%	24.1%	23.6%	1.02×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	10.8%	13.2%	7.5%	1.76×	7.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.2%	2.8%	2.9%	0.95×	36.10

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	85.7%	88.9%	87.4%	1.02×	1.13
Over 0.5 in 1st half	72.7%	71.2%	72.4%	0.98×	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	62.7%	63.7%	64.1%	0.99×	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	37.3%	36.3%	35.9%	1.01×	2.75
Under 0.5 in 1st half	27.3%	28.8%	27.6%	1.04×	3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half	14.3%	11.1%	12.6%	0.88×	9.02

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	83.7%	82.9%	84.7%	0.98×	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	72.6%	77.7%	75.9%	1.02×	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	54.2%	53.2%	54.2%	0.98×	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	45.8%	46.8%	45.8%	1.02×	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	27.4%	22.3%	24.1%	0.92×	4.49
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	16.3%	17.1%	15.3%	1.12×	5.84

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest not to score in both halves	77.5%	78.2%	76.8%	1.02×	1.28
Crystal Palace not to score in both halves	65.8%	70.4%	68.7%	1.02×	1.42
Crystal Palace to score in both halves	34.2%	29.6%	31.3%	0.95×	3.37
Nottingham Forest to score in both halves	22.5%	21.8%	23.2%	0.94×	4.60

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	60.9%	60.2%	58.2%	1.03×	1.66
Only Crystal Palace scores	23.0%	22.3%	20.3%	1.10×	4.48
Only Nottingham Forest scores	11.8%	10.9%	16.8%	0.65×	9.15
Neither team scores	4.4%	4.6%	4.9%	0.94×	21.80

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	23.2%	0.97×	4.42
Exactly 2 goals	21.5%	22.6%	23.5%	0.96×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	17.4%	17.4%	18.4%	0.95×	5.74
Exactly 1 goals	13.8%	12.1%	13.3%	0.91×	8.27
Exactly 5 goals	10.9%	12.1%	10.4%	1.16×	8.28
6 or more goals	9.6%	7.6%	6.7%	1.13×	13.08
Exactly 0 goals	4.4%	4.4%	4.9%	0.91×	22.65

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	54.2%	51.5%	54.2%	0.95×	1.94
1 goal in 2nd half	29.5%	29.9%	30.6%	0.98×	3.35
No goals in 2nd half	16.3%	17.1%	15.3%	1.12×	5.85

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest not to win both halves	93.9%	94.0%	91.2%	1.03×	1.06
Crystal Palace not to win both halves	84.7%	84.3%	86.5%	0.97×	1.19
Crystal Palace to win both halves	15.3%	15.7%	13.5%	1.16×	6.38
Nottingham Forest to win both halves	6.1%	6.0%	8.8%	0.68×	16.62

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace to win either half	63.6%	65.1%	59.0%	1.10×	1.54
Nottingham Forest to win neither half	56.7%	59.4%	51.5%	1.16×	1.68
Nottingham Forest to win either half	43.3%	40.6%	48.5%	0.84×	2.47
Crystal Palace to win neither half	36.4%	34.9%	41.0%	0.85×	2.87

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Nottingham Forest not to win to nil	88.3%	88.2%	83.2%	1.06×	1.13
Crystal Palace not to win to nil	77.0%	78.0%	79.7%	0.98×	1.28
Crystal Palace to win to nil	23.0%	22.0%	20.3%	1.08×	4.56
Nottingham Forest to win to nil	11.8%	11.8%	16.8%	0.70×	8.50

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	22.9%	24.1%	24.7%	0.98×	4.14
Crystal Palace by 1	22.2%	24.1%	19.2%	1.26×	4.14
Nottingham Forest by 1	15.8%	16.9%	16.6%	1.02×	5.91
Crystal Palace by 2	15.1%	16.9%	13.3%	1.27×	5.91
Crystal Palace by 3+	12.5%	11.8%	10.8%	1.10×	8.48
Nottingham Forest by 2	7.6%	7.3%	9.3%	0.78×	13.78
Nottingham Forest by 3+	3.9%	2.7%	6.6%	0.41×	36.96