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Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 27 October 2023 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

Shots
14 – 10
On target
3 – 1
Shots in box
8 – 4
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.37 – 0.04
Goals − xG
+0.44 – +1.01
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.30.60.81.10'15'30'45'60'75'90'Son Heung-Min 65' — goalJordan Ayew 93' — goal
Crystal Palace 0.56 xGTottenham Hotspur 0.99 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Jordan Ayew 5' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Odsonne Edouard 6' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)Yves Bissouma 15' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)James Maddison 16' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Richarlison 19' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Cheick Oumar Doucoure 38' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Joachim Andersen 38' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Joel Ward 39' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Joel Ward 40' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Will Hughes 40' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Joachim Andersen 41' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Joel Ward 52' — Own Goal (0.00 xG, Open Play)James Maddison 52' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Marc Guehi 54' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, From Corner)Odsonne Edouard 54' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Son Heung-Min 65' — Goal (0.59 xG, Open Play)Emerson 74' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Pedro Porro 74' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Dejan Kulusevski 79' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jesurun Rak-Sakyi 86' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Rodrigo Bentancur 90' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Son Heung-Min 90' — Blocked Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Jordan Ayew 93' — Goal (0.05 xG, Open Play)Matheus França 101' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)
Crystal Palace attacking right Tottenham Hotspur attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
5' Crystal Palace Jordan Ayew 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Will Hughes
6' Crystal Palace Odsonne Edouard 0.07 Set Piece Right Foot Saved Shot Jeffrey Schlupp
15' Tottenham Hotspur Yves Bissouma 0.04 Direct Freekick Right Foot Missed Shot
16' Tottenham Hotspur James Maddison 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Richarlison
19' Tottenham Hotspur Richarlison 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot James Maddison
38' Crystal Palace Cheick Oumar Doucoure 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot
38' Crystal Palace Joachim Andersen 0.02 From Corner Blocked Shot Will Hughes
39' Crystal Palace Joel Ward 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
40' Crystal Palace Joel Ward 0.01 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot Cheick Oumar Doucoure
40' Crystal Palace Will Hughes 0.01 From Corner Blocked Shot Odsonne Edouard
41' Crystal Palace Joachim Andersen 0.04 From Corner Missed Shot Will Hughes
52' Crystal Palace Joel Ward 0.00 Open Play Left Foot Own Goal
52' Tottenham Hotspur James Maddison 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
54' Crystal Palace Marc Guehi 0.12 From Corner Missed Shot Will Hughes
54' Crystal Palace Odsonne Edouard 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
65' Tottenham Hotspur Son Heung-Min 0.59 Open Play Left Foot Goal Brennan Johnson
74' Tottenham Hotspur Emerson 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot James Maddison
74' Tottenham Hotspur Pedro Porro 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
79' Tottenham Hotspur Dejan Kulusevski 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Son Heung-Min
86' Crystal Palace Jesurun Rak-Sakyi 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot Matheus França
90' Tottenham Hotspur Rodrigo Bentancur 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
90' Tottenham Hotspur Son Heung-Min 0.14 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Brennan Johnson
93' Crystal Palace Jordan Ayew 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Goal Joachim Andersen
101' Crystal Palace Matheus França 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Jean-Philippe Mateta

Players

Crystal Palace

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Marc Guehi DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.12 0.00 0.00
Jordan Ayew AMR 90 1 0 2 0 0.09 0.00 0.09
Joachim Andersen DC 90 0 1 2 1 0.06 0.05 0.05
Cheick Oumar Doucoure DMC 90 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.01 0.15
Joel Ward DR 90 0 0 2 0 0.04 0.00 0.05
Sam Johnstone GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Odsonne Edouard FW 81 0 0 2 1 0.11 0.01 0.08
Jefferson Lerma DMC 81 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Will Hughes AMC 72 0 0 1 4 0.01 0.22 0.04
Tyrick Mitchell DL 72 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jeffrey Schlupp AML 62 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.04
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi Sub 28 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.00
Nathaniel Clyne Sub 18 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Naouirou Ahamada Sub 18 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Matheus França Sub 9 0 0 1 1 0.07 0.02 0.07
Jean-Philippe Mateta Sub 9 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.07

Tottenham Hotspur

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Son Heung-Min FW 90 1 0 2 1 0.72 0.02 0.77
James Maddison AMC 90 0 0 2 2 0.11 0.05 0.18
Pedro Porro DR 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.26
Dejan Kulusevski AMR 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.07
Cristian Romero DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.26
Micky van de Ven DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Guglielmo Vicario GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Pape Sarr DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.16
Yves Bissouma DMC 66 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.07
Richarlison AML 66 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.05 0.07
Ben Davies DL 48 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Emerson Sub 42 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.05
Brennan Johnson Sub 24 0 1 0 2 0.00 0.72 0.75
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Sub 24 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Rodrigo Bentancur Sub 1 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Bryan Gil Salvatierra Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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