Crystal Palace v West Ham United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 24 August 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 18
On target
2 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 12
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.22 – 0.68
Goals − xG
-1.38 – +0.43
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Crystal Palace win
61.4%
Draw
20.5%
West Ham United win
18.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Crystal Palace are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLDLLLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.7 xG
conceded 23
from 20.8 xG
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.08–1.04 | 2-1 10% | 60% | 57% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Crystal Palace 1.38 xGWest Ham United 1.57 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Crystal Palace attacking right
West Ham United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 West Ham United |
Guido Rodríguez | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 3' |
West Ham United |
Michail Antonio | 0.48 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 3' |
West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Jarrod Bowen |
| 5' |
 Crystal Palace |
Adam Wharton | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 5' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jean-Philippe Mateta |
| 8' |
West Ham United |
Max Kilman | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jarrod Bowen |
| 10' |
West Ham United |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tomas Soucek |
| 10' |
West Ham United |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Adam Wharton |
| 15' |
West Ham United |
Michail Antonio | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 18' |
Crystal Palace |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jean-Philippe Mateta |
| 22' |
Crystal Palace |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Eberechi Eze |
| 25' |
Crystal Palace |
Jefferson Lerma | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tyrick Mitchell |
| 38' |
West Ham United |
Guido Rodríguez | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 39' |
West Ham United |
Lucas Paquetá | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Max Kilman |
| 41' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Adam Wharton |
| 44' |
Crystal Palace |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Eberechi Eze |
| 51' |
Crystal Palace |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Eberechi Eze |
| 51' |
West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 52' |
West Ham United |
Lucas Paquetá | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jarrod Bowen |
| 52' |
West Ham United |
Vladimir Coufal | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Crystal Palace |
Chris Richards | 0.14 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Eberechi Eze |
| 66' |
West Ham United |
Lucas Paquetá | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jarrod Bowen |
| 66' |
West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 71' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Max Kilman |
| 73' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ismaila Sarr |
| 76' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Tyrick Mitchell |
| 82' |
West Ham United |
Niclas Füllkrug | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 83' |
West Ham United |
Edson Álvarez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Daichi Kamada |
| 93' |
West Ham United |
Niclas Füllkrug | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jarrod Bowen |
| 94' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Daichi Kamada |
Players
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrod Bowen MR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.12 | 0.36 | 0.49 |
| Lucas Paquetá MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Max Kilman DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Guido Rodríguez DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alphonse Areola GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emerson DL | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mohammed Kudus ML | 88 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Tomas Soucek MC | 78 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.09 | 0.27 |
| Vladimir Coufal DR | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Michail Antonio FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Niclas Füllkrug Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Edson Álvarez Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Jean-Clair Todibo Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Aaron Cresswell Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Crystal Palace
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eberechi Eze AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0.52 | 0.29 | 0.60 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.32 | 0.26 | 0.92 |
| Adam Wharton MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.36 | 0.91 |
| Daniel Muñoz DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Chadi Riad DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Tyrick Mitchell DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.62 |
| Marc Guehi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Dean Henderson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chris Richards DC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Odsonne Edouard AMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Jefferson Lerma MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Daichi Kamada Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| Ismaila Sarr Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| Jeffrey Schlupp Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |