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CSKA Moscow v Rubin Kazan — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · RUS-Premier League · 2627

RUS-Premier League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
CSKA Moscow win
52.7%
model 52.9%
Draw
27.9%
model 27.8%
Rubin Kazan win
19.4%
model 19.3%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (425 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 13.1%
  2. 1-0 12.3%
  3. 2-0 10.8%
  4. 0-0 9.9%
  5. 2-1 9.4%

Goals

Over 2.544.5% Under 2.555.5%
BTTS yes47.5% BTTS no52.5%
CSKA Moscow 1+79.5% CSKA Moscow 2+47.1%
Rubin Kazan 1+58.1% Rubin Kazan 2+21.7%

Expected goals 1.59 – 0.87. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
83/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
96%
★ Best pick
Not both teams to score
GG/NG · usually 47%
53.1% fair odds 1.88
moderate signal · 1402 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
CSKA Moscow or draw (1UP)
Double chance 1UP
83.7% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 424 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • CSKA Moscow carry the stronger rating, 1588 Elo against 1549.
  • Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
  • They have had 15 days' rest to Rubin Kazan's 5.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

CSKA Moscow have an estimated 52.7% win probability, against 27.9% for the draw and 19.4% for Rubin Kazan. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.59 for CSKA Moscow and 0.87 for Rubin Kazan.

Why CSKA Moscow

CSKA Moscow carry the stronger rating, 1588 Elo against 1549. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five. They have had 15 days' rest to Rubin Kazan's 5.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.9%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Rubin Kazan can win

Nothing in the data singles out Rubin Kazan.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for CSKA Moscow, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Rubin Kazan, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

CSKA Moscow: 56% possession, 16.6 shots a match, 10.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Rubin Kazan: 53% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 15.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. CSKA Moscow's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

CSKA Moscow are the model's most likely outcome at 52.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.1%. Confidence 83/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.59–0.87 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.44–0.86 1-1 14% 40% 45%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow to win 52.9% 52.1% 44.1% 1.18× 1.92
Draw 27.8% 27.6% 28.0% 0.99× 3.63
Rubin Kazan to win 19.3% 19.1% 28.2% 0.68× 5.22
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow & not both score 32.0% 33.0% 25.5% 1.29× 3.03
CSKA Moscow & both teams score 20.9% 22.7% 18.8% 1.21× 4.41
Draw & both teams score 17.9% 17.8% 20.8% 0.86× 5.61
Rubin Kazan & not both score 10.6% 12.1% 14.9% 0.81× 8.27
Draw & not both score 9.9% 7.3% 7.3% 1.00× 13.65
Rubin Kazan & both teams score 8.7% 7.3% 13.5% 0.54× 13.67
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow & over 1.5 40.6% 43.7% 33.5% 1.30× 2.29
CSKA Moscow & under 3.5 38.2% 37.7% 30.8% 1.22× 2.66
CSKA Moscow & over 2.5 29.8% 25.6% 25.9% 0.99× 3.91
CSKA Moscow & under 2.5 23.1% 21.5% 18.4% 1.17× 4.66
Draw & under 2.5 23.0% 21.5% 22.2% 0.97× 4.66
Draw & under 3.5 23.0% 21.5% 22.2% 0.97× 4.66
Draw & over 1.5 17.9% 17.6% 20.8% 0.85× 5.68
Rubin Kazan & under 3.5 15.5% 17.6% 20.6% 0.85× 5.68
CSKA Moscow & over 3.5 14.7% 12.7% 13.5% 0.94× 7.87
Rubin Kazan & over 1.5 13.2% 12.7% 20.6% 0.62× 7.87
CSKA Moscow & under 1.5 12.3% 12.7% 10.8% 1.17× 7.88
Draw & under 1.5 9.9% 7.5% 7.3% 1.02× 13.33
Rubin Kazan & over 2.5 9.9% 7.5% 16.5% 0.45× 13.33
Rubin Kazan & under 2.5 9.4% 7.5% 11.8% 0.63× 13.33
Rubin Kazan & under 1.5 6.2% 7.5% 7.8% 0.97× 13.35
Draw & over 2.5 4.8% 4.5% 5.9% 0.76× 22.29
Draw & over 3.5 4.8% 4.5% 5.9% 0.76× 22.29
Rubin Kazan & over 3.5 3.8% 4.5% 7.8% 0.58× 22.33
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow (1UP) 65.7% 72.0% 1.39
Rubin Kazan (1UP) 35.8% 38.1% 2.63
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow (2UP) 52.9% 54.0% 1.85
Rubin Kazan (2UP) 19.3% 23.0% 4.35
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow to win 2nd half 42.5% 39.4% 2.54
2nd half drawn 37.7% 37.5% 2.67
Rubin Kazan to win 2nd half 19.9% 20.2% 4.95
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan under 1.5 in 2nd half 90.3% 91.6% 1.09
Rubin Kazan under 0.5 in 2nd half 59.3% 56.4% 1.77
Rubin Kazan over 0.5 in 2nd half 40.7% 43.6% 2.30
Rubin Kazan over 1.5 in 2nd half 9.7% 8.4% 11.93
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow under 1.5 in 2nd half 77.1% 77.3% 1.29
CSKA Moscow over 0.5 in 2nd half 59.5% 58.9% 1.70
CSKA Moscow under 0.5 in 2nd half 40.5% 41.1% 2.43
CSKA Moscow over 1.5 in 2nd half 22.9% 22.7% 4.41
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan (+2.5) 87.9% 89.0% 89.6% 0.99× 1.12
CSKA Moscow (+0.5) 80.7% 82.5% 71.8% 1.15× 1.21
Rubin Kazan (+1.5) 71.2% 73.1% 77.3% 0.94× 1.37
CSKA Moscow (-0.5) 52.9% 51.9% 44.1% 1.18× 1.93
Rubin Kazan (+0.5) 47.1% 48.1% 55.9% 0.86× 2.08
CSKA Moscow (-1.5) 28.8% 26.9% 22.7% 1.19× 3.71
Rubin Kazan (-0.5) 19.3% 17.5% 28.2% 0.62× 5.70
CSKA Moscow (-2.5) 12.1% 11.0% 10.4% 1.05× 9.13
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan to concede 79.5% 76.4% 78.0% 0.98× 1.31
Rubin Kazan clean sheet 20.5% 23.6% 22.0% 1.07× 4.23
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan clean sheet in 1st half 50.6% 54.5% 1.83
Rubin Kazan to concede in 1st half 49.4% 45.5% 2.20
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan to concede in 2nd half 59.5% 59.3% 1.69
Rubin Kazan clean sheet in 2nd half 40.5% 40.7% 2.46
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan under 6.5 corners 88.6% 85.2% 1.17
Rubin Kazan under 5.5 corners 79.8% 76.0% 1.32
Rubin Kazan over 2.5 corners 69.3% 67.6% 1.48
Rubin Kazan under 4.5 corners 66.7% 67.6% 1.48
Rubin Kazan over 3.5 corners 50.4% 53.0% 1.89
Rubin Kazan under 3.5 corners 49.6% 47.0% 2.13
Rubin Kazan over 4.5 corners 33.3% 32.4% 3.08
Rubin Kazan under 2.5 corners 30.7% 32.4% 3.08
Rubin Kazan over 5.5 corners 20.2% 24.0% 4.16
Rubin Kazan over 6.5 corners 11.4% 14.8% 6.77
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan under 3.5 goals 98.8% 97.3% 96.9% 1.00× 1.03
Rubin Kazan under 2.5 goals 94.2% 92.8% 88.8% 1.05× 1.08
Rubin Kazan under 1.5 goals 78.3% 75.4% 70.2% 1.07× 1.33
Rubin Kazan over 0.5 goals 58.1% 57.8% 67.3% 0.86× 1.73
Rubin Kazan under 0.5 goals 41.9% 42.2% 32.7% 1.29× 2.37
Rubin Kazan over 1.5 goals 21.7% 24.6% 29.8% 0.82× 4.07
Rubin Kazan over 2.5 goals 5.8% 7.2% 11.2% 0.64× 13.91
Rubin Kazan over 3.5 goals 1.2% 2.7% 3.1% 0.89× 36.91
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan under 1.5 in 1st half 95.2% 96.0% 1.04
Rubin Kazan under 0.5 in 1st half 70.6% 68.9% 1.45
Rubin Kazan over 0.5 in 1st half 29.4% 31.1% 3.22
Rubin Kazan over 1.5 in 1st half 4.8% 4.0% 25.06
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan scores equally in both 49.8% 46.9% 2.13
Rubin Kazan scores more in 2nd half 31.2% 32.3% 3.09
Rubin Kazan scores more in 1st half 19.0% 18.4% 5.44
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow (away no bet) 65.6% 71.9% 61.2% 1.18× 1.39
Draw (away no bet) 34.4% 28.1% 38.8% 0.72× 3.56
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan even goals 58.8% 58.4% 53.3% 1.10× 1.71
Rubin Kazan odd goals 41.2% 41.6% 46.7% 0.89× 2.41
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 88.5% 86.5% 1.16
Both halves over 1.5 goals 11.5% 13.5% 7.39
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 58.4% 56.1% 1.78
Both halves under 1.5 goals 41.6% 43.9% 2.28
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 51.9% 52.9% 1.89
CSKA Moscow to score 2+ in a row 40.5% 44.9% 2.23
Either team to score 3+ in a row 18.6% 17.8% 5.61
CSKA Moscow to score 3+ in a row 15.7% 17.8% 5.63
Rubin Kazan to score 2+ in a row 15.4% 17.8% 5.63
Rubin Kazan to score 3+ in a row 3.1% 3.4% 29.60
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow corners (+3.5) 93.2% 89.6% 1.12
CSKA Moscow corners (+2.5) 88.5% 84.5% 1.18
CSKA Moscow corners (+1.5) 81.6% 79.8% 1.25
Rubin Kazan corners (+3.5) 72.2% 70.7% 1.41
Rubin Kazan corners (+2.5) 61.8% 61.8% 1.62
Rubin Kazan corners (+1.5) 50.2% 52.5% 1.91
CSKA Moscow corners (-1.5) 49.8% 47.5% 2.10
CSKA Moscow corners (-2.5) 38.2% 38.2% 2.62
CSKA Moscow corners (-3.5) 27.8% 29.3% 3.42
Rubin Kazan corners (-1.5) 18.4% 20.2% 4.95
Rubin Kazan corners (-2.5) 11.5% 15.5% 6.45
Rubin Kazan corners (-3.5) 6.8% 10.4% 9.58
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 45.9% 41.7% 2.40
9-11 corners 30.5% 33.2% 3.01
12+ corners 23.5% 25.6% 3.90
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 83.5% 80.7% 1.24
Under 11.5 corners 76.5% 76.5% 1.31
Under 10.5 corners 67.7% 67.7% 1.48
Over 7.5 corners 65.7% 67.7% 1.48
Under 9.5 corners 57.3% 57.9% 1.73
Over 8.5 corners 54.1% 53.2% 1.88
Under 8.5 corners 45.9% 46.8% 2.14
Over 9.5 corners 42.7% 42.1% 2.38
Under 7.5 corners 34.3% 32.3% 3.10
Over 10.5 corners 32.3% 32.3% 3.10
Over 11.5 corners 23.5% 23.5% 4.26
Over 12.5 corners 16.5% 19.3% 5.18
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 13.1% 11.6% 15.1% 0.77× 8.61
1-0 12.3% 11.6% 10.8% 1.07× 8.61
2-0 10.8% 11.6% 7.8% 1.50× 8.62
0-0 9.9% 7.3% 7.3% 0.99× 13.75
2-1 9.4% 7.3% 8.8% 0.83× 13.76
0-1 6.2% 7.3% 7.8% 0.94× 13.77
3-0 5.7% 7.3% 4.1% 1.78× 13.77
1-2 5.2% 7.3% 6.7% 1.08× 13.77
3-1 5.0% 1.8% 4.3% 0.42× 55.39
2-2 4.1% 1.8% 4.9% 0.37× 55.41
0-2 3.3% 1.8% 4.3% 0.42× 55.43
Any other score 2.5% 1.8% 4.1% 0.44× 55.45
1-3 1.5% 1.8% 2.4% 0.74× 55.47
2-3 1.2% 1.8% 2.7% 0.68× 55.48
3-2 2.2% 1.8% 2.2% 0.80× 55.45
4-0 2.3% 1.8% 2.4% 0.74× 55.45
4-1 2.0% 1.8% 1.4% 1.26× 55.46
0-3 0.9% 1.8% 2.4% 0.74× 55.48
0-4 0.2% 1.8% 0.4% 4.41× 55.50
1-4 0.3% 1.8% 1.0% 1.77× 55.50
2-4 0.3% 1.8% 0.8% 2.21× 55.50
3-3 0.6% 1.8% 1.2% 1.47× 55.49
3-4 0.1% 1.8% 0.4% 4.41× 55.50
4-2 0.9% 1.8% 0.8% 2.21× 55.49
4-3 0.2% 1.8% 0.4% 4.41× 55.50
4-4 0.1% 1.8% 0.2% 8.83× 55.51
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow (2nd half DNB) 68.1% 66.8% 1.50
Rubin Kazan (2nd half DNB) 31.9% 33.2% 3.01
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow leading at HT (DNB) 70.1% 73.2% 1.37
Rubin Kazan leading at HT (DNB) 29.9% 26.8% 3.73
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow or draw (1X) 80.7% 80.9% 71.8% 1.13× 1.24
CSKA Moscow or Rubin Kazan (12) 72.2% 72.4% 72.0% 1.01× 1.38
Rubin Kazan or draw (X2) 47.1% 47.9% 55.9% 0.86× 2.09
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow or draw at HT 83.6% 81.8% 1.22
Rubin Kazan or draw at HT 61.5% 63.2% 1.58
CSKA Moscow or Rubin Kazan at HT 54.9% 52.2% 1.92
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow or draw (1UP) 80.7% 83.7% 1.20
Rubin Kazan or draw (1UP) 47.1% 55.0% 1.82
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow or draw in 2nd half 80.1% 79.8% 1.25
CSKA Moscow or Rubin Kazan in 2nd half 62.3% 62.5% 1.60
Rubin Kazan or draw in 2nd half 57.5% 60.6% 1.65
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 64.4% 59.5% 1.68
Neither half drawn 35.6% 40.5% 2.47
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow (DNB) 73.2% 71.5% 61.0% 1.17× 1.40
Rubin Kazan (DNB) 26.8% 28.5% 39.0% 0.73× 3.51
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow to score first 58.2% 62.3% 1.61
Rubin Kazan to score first 32.0% 31.9% 3.13
No goal scored 9.9% 6.3% 15.83
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 52.5% 53.1% 47.3% 1.12× 1.88
Both teams to score 47.5% 46.9% 52.7% 0.89× 2.13
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 42.4% 42.3% 37.1% 1.14× 2.36
Both score & over 2.5 34.4% 34.3% 37.8% 0.91× 2.91
Both score & under 2.5 13.1% 11.7% 15.1% 0.78× 8.53
Not both score & over 2.5 10.1% 11.7% 10.4% 1.12× 8.56
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 89.8% 85.5% 86.9% 0.98× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 10.2% 14.5% 13.1% 1.11× 6.90
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 75.3% 73.9% 1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half 24.7% 26.1% 3.83
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 64.1% 59.6% 1.68
Both score 2nd half only 21.1% 24.4% 4.11
Both score 1st half only 11.2% 11.5% 8.66
Both score in both halves 3.5% 4.9% 20.53
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 85.2% 85.4% 1.17
Both teams to score by HT 14.8% 14.6% 6.84
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 50.5% 54.6% 1.83
A goal in each half 49.5% 45.4% 2.20
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 48.3% 45.9% 48.0% 0.96× 2.18
0-1 goals 28.3% 27.7% 25.5% 1.09× 3.60
4-6 goals 22.0% 22.7% 25.3% 0.90× 4.40
7+ goals 1.3% 1.9% 1.6% 1.17× 52.30
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan to score exactly 0 41.9% 41.2% 32.7% 1.26× 2.43
Rubin Kazan to score exactly 1 36.5% 34.6% 37.8% 0.92× 2.89
Rubin Kazan to score exactly 2 15.9% 18.4% 18.8% 0.98× 5.42
Rubin Kazan to score 3+ 5.8% 7.4% 11.2% 0.66× 13.52
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow to score exactly 1 32.5% 30.5% 35.3% 0.86× 3.28
CSKA Moscow to score exactly 2 25.7% 27.0% 24.3% 1.11× 3.70
CSKA Moscow to score 3+ 21.3% 22.9% 18.8% 1.22× 4.36
CSKA Moscow to score exactly 0 20.5% 22.9% 22.0% 1.04× 4.36
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 45.1% 47.8% 2.09
CSKA Moscow leading at HT 38.5% 36.8% 2.72
Rubin Kazan leading at HT 16.4% 18.2% 5.49
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow -1: 2 47.1% 47.1% 2.12
CSKA Moscow -1: 1 28.8% 27.1% 3.68
CSKA Moscow -1: X 24.1% 24.0% 4.16
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan (0:1) 47.1% 47.7% 55.9% 0.85× 2.10
CSKA Moscow (0:1) 28.8% 26.5% 22.7% 1.17× 3.78
Draw (0:1) 24.1% 24.5% 21.6% 1.13× 4.08
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan (0:2) 71.2% 73.3% 77.3% 0.95× 1.36
Draw (0:2) 16.7% 16.3% 12.4% 1.31× 6.14
CSKA Moscow (0:2) 12.1% 11.6% 10.4% 1.11× 8.64
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan (0:3) 87.9% 88.5% 89.6% 0.99× 1.13
Draw (0:3) 8.0% 6.8% 5.9% 1.15× 14.63
CSKA Moscow (0:3) 4.1% 2.3% 4.7% 0.50× 42.93
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan (0:4) 95.9% 98.0% 95.3% 1.03× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 3.0% 1.2% 3.7% 0.34× 80.61
CSKA Moscow (0:4) 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.00× 81.52
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow (1:0) 80.7% 80.6% 71.8% 1.12× 1.24
Draw (1:0) 12.7% 11.7% 16.9% 0.69× 8.57
Rubin Kazan (1:0) 6.7% 8.5% 11.4% 0.75× 11.71
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow (2:0) 93.3% 91.7% 88.6% 1.04× 1.09
Draw (2:0) 5.0% 6.5% 7.3% 0.88× 15.47
Rubin Kazan (2:0) 1.6% 2.7% 4.3% 0.63× 37.21
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 45.1% 48.7% 2.06
Halves equal 28.5% 26.1% 3.83
1st half highest scoring 26.4% 26.1% 3.83
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow to concede 58.1% 59.7% 67.3% 0.89× 1.67
CSKA Moscow clean sheet 41.9% 40.3% 32.7% 1.23× 2.48
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow clean sheet in 1st half 70.6% 68.0% 1.47
CSKA Moscow to concede in 1st half 29.4% 32.0% 3.13
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow clean sheet in 2nd half 59.3% 56.1% 1.78
CSKA Moscow to concede in 2nd half 40.7% 43.9% 2.28
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow over 2.5 corners 86.0% 86.3% 1.16
CSKA Moscow over 3.5 corners 73.3% 71.9% 1.39
CSKA Moscow under 6.5 corners 69.6% 66.7% 1.50
CSKA Moscow over 4.5 corners 58.3% 57.6% 1.74
CSKA Moscow under 5.5 corners 56.6% 57.6% 1.74
CSKA Moscow over 5.5 corners 43.4% 42.4% 2.36
CSKA Moscow under 4.5 corners 41.7% 42.4% 2.36
CSKA Moscow over 6.5 corners 30.4% 33.3% 3.01
CSKA Moscow under 3.5 corners 26.7% 28.1% 3.56
CSKA Moscow under 2.5 corners 14.0% 13.7% 7.31
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow under 3.5 goals 92.3% 92.2% 92.7% 1.00× 1.09
CSKA Moscow over 0.5 goals 79.5% 77.0% 78.0% 0.99× 1.30
CSKA Moscow under 2.5 goals 78.7% 76.9% 81.2% 0.95× 1.30
CSKA Moscow under 1.5 goals 53.0% 53.0% 57.1% 0.93× 1.89
CSKA Moscow over 1.5 goals 47.0% 47.0% 42.9% 1.10× 2.13
CSKA Moscow over 2.5 goals 21.3% 23.1% 18.8% 1.23× 4.34
CSKA Moscow under 0.5 goals 20.5% 23.0% 22.0% 1.05× 4.34
CSKA Moscow over 3.5 goals 7.7% 7.8% 7.3% 1.06× 12.81
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow under 1.5 in 1st half 85.1% 87.7% 1.14
CSKA Moscow under 0.5 in 1st half 50.6% 54.5% 1.83
CSKA Moscow over 0.5 in 1st half 49.4% 45.5% 2.20
CSKA Moscow over 1.5 in 1st half 15.0% 12.3% 8.13
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow scores more in 2nd half 38.8% 38.7% 2.58
CSKA Moscow scores equally in both 35.2% 38.6% 2.59
CSKA Moscow scores more in 1st half 26.0% 27.8% 3.60
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 58.9% 54.6% 49.8% 1.10× 1.83
Rubin Kazan (home no bet) 41.1% 45.4% 50.2% 0.91× 2.20
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow even goals 52.1% 50.2% 50.4% 1.00× 1.99
CSKA Moscow odd goals 47.9% 49.8% 49.6% 1.00× 2.01
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 35.9% 36.5% 2.74
HT 1-0 24.1% 22.7% 4.40
HT 0-1 12.2% 11.2% 8.94
HT 1-1 8.7% 7.7% 12.98
HT 2-0 8.3% 7.7% 12.98
Any other HT score 3.7% 2.5% 39.79
HT 2-1 2.9% 2.5% 39.84
HT 0-2 2.2% 2.5% 39.88
HT 1-2 1.5% 2.5% 39.92
HT 2-2 0.5% 2.5% 39.97
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow at HT / CSKA Moscow at FT 32.2% 34.2% 2.92
Draw at HT / CSKA Moscow at FT 18.4% 16.8% 5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 18.4% 16.8% 5.95
Rubin Kazan at HT / Rubin Kazan at FT 9.7% 6.6% 15.16
Draw at HT / Rubin Kazan at FT 8.3% 6.6% 15.19
CSKA Moscow at HT / Draw at FT 5.0% 3.4% 29.29
Rubin Kazan at HT / Draw at FT 4.4% 3.4% 29.32
Rubin Kazan at HT / CSKA Moscow at FT 2.3% 3.4% 29.41
CSKA Moscow at HT / Rubin Kazan at FT 1.3% 3.4% 29.45
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow to score last 58.4% 56.8% 1.76
Rubin Kazan to score last 31.8% 35.7% 2.80
No goal scored 9.9% 6.3% 15.83
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 90.1% 93.7% 1.07
CSKA Moscow to lead by 1 at any time 65.7% 70.8% 1.41
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 44.4% 42.1% 2.37
Rubin Kazan to lead by 1 at any time 35.8% 37.3% 2.68
CSKA Moscow to lead by 2 at any time 34.2% 31.9% 3.13
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 16.4% 17.6% 5.68
CSKA Moscow to lead by 3 at any time 14.0% 11.4% 8.79
Rubin Kazan to lead by 2 at any time 10.3% 11.3% 8.84
Rubin Kazan to lead by 3 at any time 2.3% 2.6% 38.43
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow most corners 61.6% 60.5% 1.65
Rubin Kazan most corners 27.5% 31.1% 3.22
Corners level 10.9% 10.4% 9.60
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.2% 87.9% 87.6% 1.00× 1.14
1-4 goals 79.8% 79.0% 79.6% 0.99× 1.27
2-6 goals 70.4% 73.6% 73.1% 1.01× 1.36
2-5 goals 67.7% 68.3% 69.4% 0.98× 1.46
1-3 goals 66.8% 68.3% 66.1% 1.03× 1.46
2-4 goals 61.3% 62.2% 61.4% 1.01× 1.61
2-3 goals 48.3% 48.0% 48.0% 1.00× 2.08
1-2 goals 45.6% 48.0% 44.9% 1.07× 2.09
3-6 goals 43.2% 43.6% 46.5% 0.94× 2.29
3-5 goals 40.6% 43.6% 42.9% 1.02× 2.29
3-4 goals 34.2% 34.1% 34.9% 0.98× 2.94
4-6 goals 22.0% 24.7% 25.3% 0.98× 4.05
4-5 goals 19.4% 18.2% 21.6% 0.84× 5.51
5-6 goals 9.0% 8.9% 11.8% 0.75× 11.25
7+ goals 1.3% 2.0% 1.6% 1.22× 50.25
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CSKA Moscow never behind 54.3% 61.5% 1.63
Rubin Kazan never behind 24.5% 24.2% 4.14
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.1% 50.2% 48.8% 1.03× 1.99
Even number of goals 52.9% 49.8% 51.2% 0.97× 2.01
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 56.8% 55.3% 1.81
Odd goals in 1st half 43.2% 44.7% 2.24
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 53.8% 51.7% 1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half 46.2% 48.3% 2.07
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 96.1% 95.7% 94.7% 1.01× 1.05
Over 0.5 goals 90.1% 93.0% 92.7% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 89.7% 88.8% 86.7% 1.02× 1.13
Under 3.5 goals 76.7% 78.1% 73.3% 1.07× 1.28
Over 1.5 goals 71.7% 72.6% 74.5% 0.97× 1.38
Under 2.5 goals 55.5% 57.5% 52.0% 1.10× 1.74
Over 2.5 goals 44.5% 42.5% 48.0% 0.89× 2.35
Under 1.5 goals 28.3% 27.4% 25.5% 1.07× 3.65
Over 3.5 goals 23.3% 21.9% 26.7% 0.82× 4.56
Over 4.5 goals 10.3% 11.2% 13.3% 0.84× 8.93
Under 0.5 goals 9.9% 7.0% 7.3% 0.96× 14.20
Over 5.5 goals 3.9% 4.3% 5.3% 0.82× 23.04
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.7% 97.3% 98.3% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 95.8% 97.2% 94.2% 1.03× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 88.2% 88.2% 84.7% 1.04× 1.13
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 70.4% 72.1% 66.1% 1.09× 1.39
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 61.1% 62.3% 65.3% 0.95× 1.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 38.9% 37.7% 34.7% 1.09× 2.65
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 29.6% 27.9% 33.9% 0.82× 3.58
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 11.8% 11.8% 15.3% 0.77× 8.50
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 4.2% 2.8% 5.8% 0.48× 36.11
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.3% 2.7% 1.7% 1.61× 36.57
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 91.4% 92.2% 1.09
Under 1.5 in 1st half 72.2% 72.4% 1.38
Over 0.5 in 1st half 64.1% 63.1% 1.59
Under 0.5 in 1st half 35.9% 36.9% 2.71
Over 1.5 in 1st half 27.8% 27.6% 3.63
Over 2.5 in 1st half 8.6% 7.8% 12.81
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 82.7% 82.0% 1.22
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 75.5% 80.3% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 57.8% 54.2% 1.85
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 42.2% 45.8% 2.18
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 24.5% 19.7% 5.08
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 17.3% 18.0% 5.56
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan not to score in both halves 88.0% 84.6% 1.18
CSKA Moscow not to score in both halves 70.6% 70.3% 1.42
CSKA Moscow to score in both halves 29.4% 29.7% 3.37
Rubin Kazan to score in both halves 12.0% 15.4% 6.48
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 47.5% 49.2% 52.7% 0.94× 2.03
Only CSKA Moscow scores 32.0% 36.1% 25.5% 1.42× 2.77
Only Rubin Kazan scores 10.6% 10.8% 14.9% 0.73× 9.25
Neither team scores 9.9% 6.7% 7.3% 0.91× 15.02
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 27.2% 24.7% 26.7% 0.92× 4.05
Exactly 3 goals 21.2% 21.6% 21.4% 1.01× 4.63
Exactly 1 goals 18.5% 18.6% 18.4% 1.01× 5.38
Exactly 4 goals 13.0% 12.3% 13.7% 0.90× 8.10
Exactly 0 goals 9.9% 7.6% 7.3% 1.04× 13.10
Exactly 5 goals 6.4% 7.6% 8.2% 0.93× 13.14
6 or more goals 3.9% 4.3% 5.3% 0.82× 23.04
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 36.3% 37.3% 2.68
No goals in 1st half 35.9% 37.3% 2.68
2 goals in 1st half 19.2% 18.4% 5.45
3+ goals in 1st half 8.6% 7.8% 12.81
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 42.2% 46.5% 2.15
1 goal in 2nd half 33.4% 33.1% 3.02
No goals in 2nd half 24.5% 18.6% 5.38
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan not to win both halves 96.6% 96.6% 1.04
CSKA Moscow not to win both halves 83.4% 82.9% 1.21
CSKA Moscow to win both halves 16.6% 17.1% 5.85
Rubin Kazan to win both halves 3.4% 3.4% 29.36
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan to win neither half 67.1% 67.1% 1.49
CSKA Moscow to win either half 64.3% 63.8% 1.57
CSKA Moscow to win neither half 35.7% 36.2% 2.76
Rubin Kazan to win either half 32.9% 32.9% 3.04
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rubin Kazan not to win to nil 89.4% 88.3% 85.1% 1.04× 1.13
CSKA Moscow not to win to nil 68.0% 64.6% 74.5% 0.87× 1.55
CSKA Moscow to win to nil 32.0% 35.4% 25.5% 1.39× 2.83
Rubin Kazan to win to nil 10.6% 11.7% 14.9% 0.79× 8.52
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 27.8% 27.9% 28.0% 1.00× 3.58
CSKA Moscow by 1 24.1% 23.9% 21.6% 1.10× 4.19
CSKA Moscow by 2 16.7% 17.1% 12.4% 1.37× 5.87
Rubin Kazan by 1 12.7% 11.7% 16.9% 0.69× 8.53
CSKA Moscow by 3+ 12.1% 11.7% 10.4% 1.13× 8.54
Rubin Kazan by 2 5.0% 7.0% 7.3% 0.95× 14.28
Rubin Kazan by 3+ 1.6% 2.8% 4.3% 0.66× 35.49
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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