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Cúcuta Deportivo v Millonarios — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 14 September 2026 · COL-Primera A · 2627

COL-Primera A results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Cúcuta Deportivo win
22.4%
model 24.6%
Draw
27.9%
model 27.8%
Millonarios win
49.7%
model 47.6%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (476 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 13.3%
  2. 0-1 10.5%
  3. 1-2 9.3%
  4. 0-2 9.0%
  5. 0-0 8.7%

Goals

Over 2.547.7% Under 2.552.3%
BTTS yes51.9% BTTS no48.1%
Cúcuta Deportivo 1+64.8% Cúcuta Deportivo 2+28.0%
Millonarios 1+78.5% Millonarios 2+45.4%

Expected goals 1.04 – 1.54. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
84/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
97%
★ Best pick
Millonarios (DNB)
Draw no bet · usually 35%
68.2% fair odds 1.47
strong signal · 298 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Not both to score by HT
GG/NG half time
83.2% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 1245 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Millonarios carry the stronger rating, 1567 Elo against 1430.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Millonarios have an estimated 49.7% win probability, against 27.9% for the draw and 22.4% for Cúcuta Deportivo. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.04 for Cúcuta Deportivo and 1.54 for Millonarios.

Why Cúcuta Deportivo

Nothing in the data singles out Cúcuta Deportivo.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.9%. Draws run at 29% in this competition.

Why Millonarios can win

Millonarios carry the stronger rating, 1567 Elo against 1430.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Cúcuta Deportivo, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Millonarios, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Cúcuta Deportivo: 46% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 14.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Millonarios: 51% possession, 15.8 shots a match, 8.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Millonarios are the model's most likely outcome at 49.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.3%. Confidence 84/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.04–1.54 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.05–1.45 1-1 14% 46% 51%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millonarios to win 47.6% 49.2% 24.9% 1.98× 2.03
Draw 27.8% 27.6% 29.4% 0.94× 3.62
Cúcuta Deportivo to win 24.6% 22.2% 45.8% 0.48× 4.51
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millonarios & not both score 26.6% 26.3% 13.5% 1.95× 3.80
Millonarios & both teams score 21.1% 22.6% 11.5% 1.96× 4.43
Draw & both teams score 19.1% 17.8% 18.8% 0.95× 5.63
Cúcuta Deportivo & not both score 12.8% 12.2% 27.1% 0.45× 8.22
Cúcuta Deportivo & both teams score 11.8% 12.2% 18.9% 0.64× 8.23
Draw & not both score 8.7% 7.3% 10.8% 0.68× 13.64
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millonarios & over 1.5 37.1% 37.5% 16.5% 2.27× 2.67
Millonarios & under 3.5 33.4% 33.2% 20.0% 1.66× 3.02
Millonarios & over 2.5 28.1% 25.5% 12.9% 1.98× 3.92
Draw & under 2.5 21.9% 21.5% 23.8% 0.91× 4.65
Draw & under 3.5 21.9% 21.5% 23.8% 0.91× 4.65
Millonarios & under 2.5 19.5% 17.6% 12.1% 1.45× 5.69
Draw & over 1.5 19.1% 17.6% 18.8% 0.94× 5.69
Cúcuta Deportivo & under 3.5 18.7% 17.6% 35.7% 0.49× 5.69
Cúcuta Deportivo & over 1.5 17.8% 17.6% 33.9% 0.52× 5.69
Millonarios & over 3.5 14.2% 12.7% 5.0% 2.55× 7.86
Cúcuta Deportivo & over 2.5 13.7% 12.7% 25.6% 0.50× 7.86
Cúcuta Deportivo & under 2.5 10.9% 12.7% 20.4% 0.62× 7.87
Millonarios & under 1.5 10.5% 12.7% 8.5% 1.50× 7.87
Draw & under 1.5 8.7% 7.5% 10.8% 0.69× 13.40
Cúcuta Deportivo & under 1.5 6.8% 7.5% 12.1% 0.62× 13.41
Cúcuta Deportivo & over 3.5 5.9% 7.5% 10.3% 0.73× 13.42
Draw & over 2.5 5.8% 7.5% 5.8% 1.28× 13.42
Draw & over 3.5 5.8% 7.5% 5.8% 1.28× 13.42
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millonarios (1UP) 62.2% 63.9% 1.57
Cúcuta Deportivo (1UP) 42.0% 43.4% 2.31
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millonarios (2UP) 47.6% 49.6% 2.02
Cúcuta Deportivo (2UP) 24.6% 21.3% 4.70
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millonarios to win 2nd half 41.3% 39.4% 2.54
2nd half drawn 36.5% 37.5% 2.67
Cúcuta Deportivo to win 2nd half 22.2% 22.3% 4.49
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millonarios (+2.5) 97.3% 97.2% 91.8% 1.06× 1.03
Millonarios (+1.5) 90.5% 92.2% 79.6% 1.16× 1.08
Millonarios (+0.5) 75.4% 78.5% 54.2% 1.45× 1.27
Cúcuta Deportivo (+0.5) 52.4% 51.6% 75.1% 0.69× 1.94
Millonarios (-0.5) 47.6% 48.4% 24.9% 1.95× 2.07
Cúcuta Deportivo (-0.5) 24.6% 21.5% 45.8% 0.47× 4.65
Cúcuta Deportivo (-1.5) 9.5% 7.8% 20.4% 0.38× 12.89
Cúcuta Deportivo (-2.5) 2.7% 2.8% 8.2% 0.35× 35.37
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millonarios to concede 64.7% 64.1% 75.8% 0.85× 1.56
Millonarios clean sheet 35.3% 35.9% 24.2% 1.49× 2.79
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millonarios clean sheet in 1st half 63.9% 60.7% 1.65
Millonarios to concede in 1st half 36.1% 39.3% 2.54
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millonarios over 2.5 corners 82.1% 81.4% 1.23
Millonarios under 6.5 corners 70.4% 71.6% 1.40
Millonarios over 3.5 corners 68.9% 67.6% 1.48
Millonarios under 5.5 corners 58.9% 57.1% 1.75
Millonarios over 4.5 corners 54.6% 53.1% 1.88
Millonarios under 4.5 corners 45.4% 46.9% 2.13
Millonarios over 5.5 corners 41.1% 42.9% 2.33
Millonarios under 3.5 corners 31.1% 32.4% 3.08
Millonarios over 6.5 corners 29.6% 28.4% 3.52
Millonarios under 2.5 corners 17.9% 18.6% 5.37
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millonarios under 3.5 goals 93.0% 92.7% 98.1% 0.94× 1.08
Millonarios under 2.5 goals 80.0% 75.4% 92.9% 0.81× 1.33
Millonarios over 0.5 goals 78.5% 75.3% 62.2% 1.21× 1.33
Millonarios under 1.5 goals 54.6% 52.1% 74.3% 0.70× 1.92
Millonarios over 1.5 goals 45.4% 47.9% 25.7% 1.87× 2.09
Millonarios under 0.5 goals 21.5% 24.7% 37.8% 0.65× 4.05
Millonarios over 2.5 goals 20.0% 24.6% 7.1% 3.48× 4.06
Millonarios over 3.5 goals 7.0% 7.3% 1.9% 3.78× 13.61
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millonarios under 1.5 in 1st half 87.3% 87.6% 1.14
Millonarios under 0.5 in 1st half 54.1% 51.0% 1.96
Millonarios over 0.5 in 1st half 45.9% 49.0% 2.04
Millonarios over 1.5 in 1st half 12.7% 12.4% 8.06
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (away no bet) 53.0% 51.5% 39.1% 1.32× 1.94
Cúcuta Deportivo (away no bet) 47.0% 48.5% 60.9% 0.80× 2.06
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millonarios even goals 52.3% 52.4% 57.5% 0.91× 1.91
Millonarios odd goals 47.7% 47.6% 42.5% 1.12× 2.10
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 87.1% 86.4% 1.16
Both halves over 1.5 goals 12.9% 13.6% 7.35
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 61.2% 66.2% 1.51
Both halves under 1.5 goals 38.8% 33.8% 2.96
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 53.3% 52.9% 1.89
Millonarios to score 2+ in a row 38.0% 37.4% 2.68
Cúcuta Deportivo to score 2+ in a row 20.5% 21.7% 4.60
Either team to score 3+ in a row 18.6% 17.8% 5.61
Millonarios to score 3+ in a row 13.9% 12.2% 8.18
Cúcuta Deportivo to score 3+ in a row 4.9% 3.4% 29.13
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millonarios corners (+3.5) 90.0% 84.5% 1.18
Millonarios corners (+2.5) 84.4% 79.8% 1.25
Millonarios corners (+1.5) 77.0% 74.8% 1.34
Cúcuta Deportivo corners (+3.5) 73.5% 70.8% 1.41
Cúcuta Deportivo corners (+2.5) 64.3% 61.9% 1.62
Cúcuta Deportivo corners (+1.5) 53.8% 52.5% 1.91
Millonarios corners (-1.5) 46.2% 47.5% 2.11
Millonarios corners (-2.5) 35.7% 38.1% 2.62
Millonarios corners (-3.5) 26.5% 29.2% 3.42
Cúcuta Deportivo corners (-1.5) 23.0% 25.2% 3.98
Cúcuta Deportivo corners (-2.5) 15.6% 20.2% 4.96
Cúcuta Deportivo corners (-3.5) 10.0% 15.5% 6.46
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 46.5% 41.8% 2.39
9-11 corners 27.9% 31.2% 3.20
12+ corners 25.6% 31.2% 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 81.1% 80.7% 1.24
Under 11.5 corners 74.4% 72.6% 1.38
Under 10.5 corners 66.2% 67.7% 1.48
Over 7.5 corners 64.2% 63.3% 1.58
Under 9.5 corners 56.8% 57.9% 1.73
Over 8.5 corners 53.5% 53.2% 1.88
Under 8.5 corners 46.5% 46.8% 2.14
Over 9.5 corners 43.2% 42.1% 2.38
Under 7.5 corners 35.8% 36.7% 2.72
Over 10.5 corners 33.8% 32.3% 3.10
Over 11.5 corners 25.6% 27.4% 3.65
Over 12.5 corners 18.9% 19.3% 5.18
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 13.3% 11.6% 13.1% 0.89× 8.63
0-1 10.5% 11.6% 8.5% 1.37× 8.64
1-2 9.3% 7.3% 7.1% 1.03× 13.74
0-2 9.0% 7.3% 3.8% 1.94× 13.74
0-0 8.7% 7.3% 10.8% 0.67× 13.74
1-0 6.8% 7.3% 12.1% 0.60× 13.75
2-1 6.3% 7.3% 11.0% 0.66× 13.75
0-3 4.6% 1.8% 1.1% 1.62× 55.39
1-3 4.8% 1.8% 1.4% 1.30× 55.39
2-0 4.1% 1.8% 8.5% 0.21× 55.41
2-2 4.9% 1.8% 5.1% 0.35× 55.39
2-3 2.5% 1.8% 1.9% 0.93× 55.45
Any other score 2.5% 1.8% 2.4% 0.76× 55.45
0-4 1.8% 1.8% 0.6% 3.25× 55.46
1-4 1.8% 1.8% 0.7% 2.60× 55.46
3-0 1.4% 1.8% 4.6% 0.39× 55.47
3-1 2.2% 1.8% 3.5% 0.52× 55.45
3-2 1.7% 1.8% 2.4% 0.76× 55.47
2-4 1.0% 1.8% 0.1% 12.98× 55.48
3-3 0.9% 1.8% 0.8% 2.16× 55.49
3-4 0.3% 1.8% 0.3% 6.49× 55.50
4-0 0.4% 1.8% 1.7% 1.08× 55.50
4-1 0.6% 1.8% 0.7% 2.59× 55.49
4-2 0.4% 1.8% 0.7% 2.59× 55.50
4-3 0.2% 1.8% 0.6% 3.24× 55.50
4-4 0.1% 1.8% 0.1% 12.97× 55.51
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millonarios leading at HT (DNB) 60.0% 64.7% 1.54
Cúcuta Deportivo leading at HT (DNB) 40.0% 35.3% 2.84
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millonarios or draw (X2) 75.4% 77.8% 54.2% 1.44× 1.29
Cúcuta Deportivo or Millonarios (12) 72.2% 72.4% 70.6% 1.03× 1.38
Cúcuta Deportivo or draw (1X) 52.4% 50.8% 75.1% 0.68× 1.97
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millonarios or draw at HT 78.1% 78.8% 1.27
Cúcuta Deportivo or draw at HT 67.1% 66.2% 1.51
Cúcuta Deportivo or Millonarios at HT 54.9% 52.1% 1.92
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millonarios or draw (1UP) 75.4% 84.5% 1.18
Cúcuta Deportivo or draw (1UP) 52.4% 58.7% 1.70
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millonarios or draw in 2nd half 77.8% 77.7% 1.29
Cúcuta Deportivo or Millonarios in 2nd half 63.5% 62.5% 1.60
Cúcuta Deportivo or draw in 2nd half 58.7% 60.6% 1.65
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 63.9% 59.5% 1.68
Neither half drawn 36.1% 40.5% 2.47
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millonarios (DNB) 65.9% 68.2% 35.2% 1.94× 1.47
Cúcuta Deportivo (DNB) 34.1% 31.8% 64.8% 0.49× 3.14
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millonarios to score first 54.4% 53.8% 1.86
Cúcuta Deportivo to score first 36.9% 37.2% 2.69
No goal scored 8.7% 6.3% 15.90
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 51.9% 52.9% 48.9% 1.08× 1.89
Not both teams to score 48.1% 47.1% 51.1% 0.92× 2.12
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 39.1% 37.5% 43.1% 0.87× 2.67
Both score & over 2.5 38.7% 37.5% 36.0% 1.04× 2.67
Both score & under 2.5 13.3% 11.7% 13.1% 0.90× 8.52
Not both score & over 2.5 9.0% 8.7% 8.2% 1.07× 11.45
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 87.3% 85.5% 88.8% 0.96× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 12.7% 14.5% 11.3% 1.29× 6.92
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 72.6% 70.4% 1.42
Both teams to score in 2nd half 27.4% 29.6% 3.38
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 60.3% 59.4% 1.68
Both score 2nd half only 22.9% 24.4% 4.10
Both score 1st half only 12.3% 11.6% 8.65
Both score in both halves 4.5% 4.8% 20.71
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 83.2% 83.2% 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 16.8% 16.8% 5.96
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 51.6% 54.6% 1.83
A half without a goal 48.4% 45.4% 2.21
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 48.0% 45.9% 48.2% 0.95× 2.18
0-1 goals 26.0% 27.7% 31.1% 0.89× 3.62
4-6 goals 24.3% 22.8% 19.4% 1.17× 4.38
7+ goals 1.6% 1.9% 1.5% 1.27× 51.67
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millonarios to score exactly 1 33.1% 33.3% 36.7% 0.91× 3.01
Millonarios to score exactly 2 25.4% 27.0% 18.8% 1.44× 3.70
Millonarios to score exactly 0 21.5% 24.0% 37.8% 0.63× 4.18
Millonarios to score 3+ 20.0% 23.9% 7.1% 3.38× 4.18
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cúcuta Deportivo to score exactly 1 36.8% 36.0% 34.4% 1.04× 2.78
Cúcuta Deportivo to score exactly 0 35.3% 35.9% 24.2% 1.49× 2.78
Cúcuta Deportivo to score exactly 2 19.2% 18.5% 26.1% 0.71× 5.39
Cúcuta Deportivo to score 3+ 8.8% 8.1% 15.6% 0.52× 12.39
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 45.1% 47.9% 2.09
Millonarios leading at HT 32.9% 33.8% 2.96
Cúcuta Deportivo leading at HT 22.0% 21.2% 4.71
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millonarios -1: 1 52.4% 51.6% 1.94
Millonarios -1: 2 24.9% 24.0% 4.17
Millonarios -1: X 22.7% 23.9% 4.18
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millonarios (0:1) 75.4% 80.5% 54.2% 1.49× 1.24
Draw (0:1) 15.1% 18.2% 25.6% 0.71× 5.49
Cúcuta Deportivo (0:1) 9.5% 8.7% 20.4% 0.42× 11.55
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millonarios (0:2) 90.5% 91.2% 79.6% 1.15× 1.10
Draw (0:2) 6.8% 7.2% 12.4% 0.58× 13.96
Cúcuta Deportivo (0:2) 2.7% 3.0% 8.2% 0.37× 33.35
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millonarios (0:3) 97.3% 97.2% 91.8% 1.06× 1.03
Draw (0:3) 2.1% 2.3% 5.4% 0.43× 43.13
Cúcuta Deportivo (0:3) 0.6% 2.3% 2.9% 0.79× 43.46
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millonarios (0:4) 99.4% 98.1% 97.1% 1.01× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 0.5% 1.2% 1.9% 0.63× 81.09
Cúcuta Deportivo (0:4) 0.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.11× 81.29
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cúcuta Deportivo (1:0) 52.4% 48.7% 75.1% 0.65× 2.06
Millonarios (1:0) 24.9% 23.0% 7.6% 3.01× 4.35
Draw (1:0) 22.7% 22.9% 17.4% 1.32× 4.36
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cúcuta Deportivo (2:0) 75.1% 77.4% 92.4% 0.84× 1.29
Draw (2:0) 14.8% 12.2% 5.0% 2.44× 8.20
Millonarios (2:0) 10.1% 12.0% 2.8% 4.32× 8.33
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 46.8% 48.7% 2.05
Halves equal 27.4% 26.1% 3.83
1st half highest scoring 25.9% 26.1% 3.83
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cúcuta Deportivo to concede 78.5% 77.3% 62.2% 1.24× 1.29
Cúcuta Deportivo clean sheet 21.5% 22.7% 37.8% 0.60× 4.41
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cúcuta Deportivo clean sheet in 1st half 54.1% 51.0% 1.96
Cúcuta Deportivo to concede in 1st half 45.9% 49.0% 2.04
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cúcuta Deportivo under 6.5 corners 85.0% 86.3% 1.16
Cúcuta Deportivo under 5.5 corners 76.0% 76.6% 1.31
Cúcuta Deportivo over 2.5 corners 69.5% 66.7% 1.50
Cúcuta Deportivo under 4.5 corners 63.5% 62.3% 1.61
Cúcuta Deportivo over 3.5 corners 52.2% 52.6% 1.90
Cúcuta Deportivo under 3.5 corners 47.8% 47.4% 2.11
Cúcuta Deportivo over 4.5 corners 36.5% 37.7% 2.65
Cúcuta Deportivo under 2.5 corners 30.5% 33.3% 3.01
Cúcuta Deportivo over 5.5 corners 24.0% 23.4% 4.27
Cúcuta Deportivo over 6.5 corners 15.0% 13.7% 7.29
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cúcuta Deportivo under 3.5 goals 97.8% 97.8% 95.3% 1.03× 1.02
Cúcuta Deportivo under 2.5 goals 91.2% 92.1% 84.4% 1.09× 1.09
Cúcuta Deportivo under 1.5 goals 72.0% 72.7% 58.5% 1.24× 1.38
Cúcuta Deportivo over 0.5 goals 64.7% 62.7% 75.8% 0.83× 1.59
Cúcuta Deportivo under 0.5 goals 35.3% 37.3% 24.2% 1.54× 2.68
Cúcuta Deportivo over 1.5 goals 28.0% 27.3% 41.5% 0.66× 3.67
Cúcuta Deportivo over 2.5 goals 8.8% 7.9% 15.6% 0.51× 12.59
Cúcuta Deportivo over 3.5 goals 2.2% 2.2% 4.7% 0.47× 44.70
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cúcuta Deportivo under 1.5 in 1st half 92.5% 93.1% 1.07
Cúcuta Deportivo under 0.5 in 1st half 63.9% 60.5% 1.65
Cúcuta Deportivo over 0.5 in 1st half 36.1% 39.5% 2.53
Cúcuta Deportivo over 1.5 in 1st half 7.5% 6.9% 14.56
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millonarios (home no bet) 63.2% 61.5% 45.8% 1.34× 1.63
Draw (home no bet) 36.8% 38.5% 54.2% 0.71× 2.60
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cúcuta Deportivo even goals 56.2% 58.0% 53.3% 1.09× 1.72
Cúcuta Deportivo odd goals 43.8% 42.0% 46.7% 0.90× 2.38
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 34.7% 30.6% 3.27
HT 0-1 21.0% 22.6% 4.42
HT 1-0 15.3% 18.9% 5.30
HT 1-1 9.7% 7.7% 12.97
HT 0-2 6.5% 7.7% 13.01
Any other HT score 3.5% 2.5% 39.80
HT 2-0 3.5% 2.5% 39.80
HT 1-2 2.9% 2.5% 39.83
HT 2-1 2.1% 2.5% 39.88
HT 2-2 0.7% 2.5% 39.96
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millonarios at HT / Millonarios at FT 26.8% 27.1% 3.69
Draw at HT / Millonarios at FT 18.0% 16.8% 5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 17.7% 16.8% 5.96
Cúcuta Deportivo at HT / Cúcuta Deportivo at FT 13.7% 12.0% 8.35
Draw at HT / Cúcuta Deportivo at FT 9.5% 6.6% 15.16
Cúcuta Deportivo at HT / Draw at FT 5.4% 6.6% 15.26
Millonarios at HT / Draw at FT 4.7% 3.4% 29.31
Cúcuta Deportivo at HT / Millonarios at FT 2.9% 3.4% 29.39
Millonarios at HT / Cúcuta Deportivo at FT 1.5% 3.4% 29.45
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millonarios to score last 54.5% 53.8% 1.86
Cúcuta Deportivo to score last 36.8% 38.0% 2.63
No goal scored 8.7% 6.3% 15.90
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 91.3% 93.7% 1.07
Millonarios to lead by 1 at any time 62.2% 64.4% 1.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 44.9% 42.2% 2.37
Cúcuta Deportivo to lead by 1 at any time 42.0% 42.1% 2.38
Millonarios to lead by 2 at any time 30.8% 32.0% 3.13
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 15.9% 17.6% 5.67
Cúcuta Deportivo to lead by 2 at any time 14.2% 11.4% 8.81
Millonarios to lead by 3 at any time 12.1% 11.3% 8.83
Cúcuta Deportivo to lead by 3 at any time 3.8% 2.6% 38.02
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millonarios most corners 57.2% 55.5% 1.80
Cúcuta Deportivo most corners 32.3% 34.4% 2.91
Corners level 10.5% 10.4% 9.60
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.6% 87.9% 85.7% 1.03× 1.14
1-4 goals 79.3% 78.9% 80.0% 0.99× 1.27
2-6 goals 72.3% 73.6% 67.5% 1.09× 1.36
2-5 goals 69.2% 68.4% 65.4% 1.04× 1.46
1-3 goals 65.4% 68.3% 68.5% 1.00× 1.46
2-4 goals 62.0% 62.3% 59.7% 1.04× 1.61
2-3 goals 48.0% 48.0% 48.2% 1.00× 2.08
3-6 goals 46.0% 48.0% 42.6% 1.13× 2.08
1-2 goals 43.7% 43.6% 45.3% 0.96× 2.29
3-5 goals 42.9% 43.6% 40.6% 1.08× 2.29
3-4 goals 35.7% 38.8% 34.9% 1.11× 2.58
4-6 goals 24.3% 24.8% 19.4% 1.27× 4.04
4-5 goals 21.2% 24.7% 17.4% 1.42× 4.05
5-6 goals 10.3% 13.4% 7.9% 1.69× 7.46
7+ goals 1.6% 2.0% 1.5% 1.32× 49.65
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Millonarios never behind 49.3% 53.8% 1.86
Cúcuta Deportivo never behind 29.1% 31.1% 3.22
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.5% 50.1% 50.4% 0.99× 2.00
Even number of goals 52.5% 49.9% 49.6% 1.01× 2.00
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 56.3% 55.3% 1.81
Odd goals in 1st half 43.7% 44.7% 2.24
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 53.2% 51.7% 1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half 46.8% 48.3% 2.07
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 95.3% 95.6% 96.4% 0.99× 1.05
Over 0.5 goals 91.3% 92.9% 89.2% 1.04× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 88.0% 88.8% 90.7% 0.98× 1.13
Under 3.5 goals 74.0% 72.5% 79.2% 0.92× 1.38
Over 1.5 goals 74.0% 72.5% 68.9% 1.05× 1.38
Under 2.5 goals 52.4% 53.5% 56.0% 0.96× 1.87
Over 2.5 goals 47.6% 46.5% 44.0% 1.06× 2.15
Under 1.5 goals 26.0% 27.5% 31.1% 0.89× 3.63
Over 3.5 goals 26.0% 27.5% 20.8% 1.32× 3.63
Over 4.5 goals 12.0% 11.2% 9.3% 1.21× 8.91
Under 0.5 goals 8.7% 7.1% 10.8% 0.65× 14.15
Over 5.5 goals 4.8% 4.4% 3.6% 1.22× 22.76
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.3% 97.2% 98.4% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 94.9% 92.8% 96.2% 0.96× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 86.1% 88.1% 89.5% 0.98× 1.14
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 66.9% 68.0% 72.9% 0.93× 1.47
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 64.7% 62.5% 58.6% 1.07× 1.60
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 35.3% 37.5% 41.4% 0.91× 2.67
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 33.1% 32.0% 27.1% 1.18× 3.13
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 13.9% 11.9% 10.5% 1.14× 8.37
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 5.1% 7.2% 3.8% 1.89× 13.85
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.7% 2.8% 1.6% 1.77× 36.19
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 90.8% 92.2% 1.09
Under 1.5 in 1st half 71.1% 72.4% 1.38
Over 0.5 in 1st half 65.3% 68.5% 1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half 34.7% 31.5% 3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half 28.9% 27.6% 3.62
Over 2.5 in 1st half 9.2% 7.8% 12.76
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 80.5% 82.0% 1.22
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 77.7% 80.3% 1.25
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 45.1% 51.7% 1.93
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 54.9% 48.3% 2.07
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 22.3% 19.7% 5.07
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 19.5% 18.0% 5.56
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cúcuta Deportivo not to score in both halves 83.8% 81.6% 1.23
Millonarios not to score in both halves 72.3% 70.4% 1.42
Millonarios to score in both halves 27.7% 29.6% 3.38
Cúcuta Deportivo to score in both halves 16.2% 18.4% 5.42
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 51.9% 54.7% 48.9% 1.12× 1.83
Only Millonarios scores 26.6% 25.6% 13.5% 1.90× 3.90
Only Cúcuta Deportivo scores 12.8% 10.8% 27.1% 0.40× 9.25
Neither team scores 8.7% 6.7% 10.8% 0.62× 14.98
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 26.3% 24.7% 25.0% 0.99× 4.05
Exactly 3 goals 21.7% 21.5% 23.3% 0.92× 4.64
Exactly 1 goals 17.3% 18.6% 20.4% 0.91× 5.39
Exactly 4 goals 14.0% 12.4% 11.7% 1.06× 8.08
Exactly 0 goals 8.7% 7.6% 10.8% 0.70× 13.12
Exactly 5 goals 7.2% 7.6% 5.8% 1.30× 13.14
6 or more goals 4.8% 4.4% 3.6% 1.21× 22.81
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 45.1% 50.8% 1.97
1 goal in 2nd half 32.5% 33.2% 3.02
No goals in 2nd half 22.3% 18.5% 5.40
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cúcuta Deportivo not to win both halves 95.0% 93.4% 1.07
Millonarios not to win both halves 86.2% 87.5% 1.14
Millonarios to win both halves 13.8% 12.5% 8.00
Cúcuta Deportivo to win both halves 5.0% 6.6% 15.24
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cúcuta Deportivo to win neither half 60.8% 63.6% 1.57
Millonarios to win either half 60.4% 63.5% 1.57
Millonarios to win neither half 39.6% 36.5% 2.74
Cúcuta Deportivo to win either half 39.2% 36.4% 2.74
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cúcuta Deportivo not to win to nil 87.2% 88.3% 72.9% 1.21× 1.13
Millonarios not to win to nil 73.4% 74.4% 86.5% 0.86× 1.35
Millonarios to win to nil 26.6% 25.6% 13.5% 1.90× 3.90
Cúcuta Deportivo to win to nil 12.8% 11.7% 27.1% 0.43× 8.52
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 27.8% 28.0% 29.4% 0.95× 3.57
Millonarios by 1 22.7% 23.7% 17.4% 1.37× 4.21
Cúcuta Deportivo by 1 15.1% 16.9% 25.6% 0.66× 5.90
Millonarios by 2 14.8% 11.9% 5.0% 2.38× 8.42
Millonarios by 3+ 10.1% 11.8% 2.8% 4.26× 8.46
Cúcuta Deportivo by 2 6.8% 7.1% 12.4% 0.57× 14.12
Cúcuta Deportivo by 3+ 2.7% 2.8% 8.2% 0.34× 35.39
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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