Cusco FC v Melgar — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · PER-Liga 1 · 2627

PER-Liga 1 results-only Prediction generated 10 Sep 2026, 19:28 UTC

Cusco FC

0–1

00:00 UTC

Melgar

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 11 Sep, 11:38 · 12h before kick-off

Cusco FC win

43.0%

model 41.3%

Draw

24.4%

model 24.1%

Melgar win

32.6%

model 34.6%

432433

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (6,406 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.2%
2-1 8.8%
1-0 8.5%
1-2 7.9%
0-1 7.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	56.0%	Under 2.5	44.0%
BTTS yes	58.7%	BTTS no	41.3%
Cusco FC 1+	78.5%	Cusco FC 2+	45.5%
Melgar 1+	75.0%	Melgar 2+	40.4%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.39. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

81/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

93%

★ Best pick

Melgar (+0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 50%

58.4% fair odds 1.71

strong signal · 11329 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Cusco FC (2:0)

Handicap 2:0 · usually 92%

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 4439 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Cusco FC have an estimated 43.0% win probability, against 32.6% for Melgar and 24.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.54 for Cusco FC and 1.39 for Melgar.

Why Cusco FC

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 24.4%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.54 to 1.39. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Melgar can win

Melgar carry the stronger rating, 1580 Elo against 1547.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Cusco FC, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Melgar, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Cusco FC: 55% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 15.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Melgar: 59% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 14.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-11 15:19 · team_stats 2026-09-11 06:03 · availability 2026-09-11 15:38 · prediction 2026-09-10 19:28 ·

Cusco FC are the model's most likely outcome at 43.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.2%. Confidence 81/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	412435	1.54–1.39	0%	0%	0%	Home ✗
ai-blend-oos	442432	1.64–1.37	0%	0%	0%	Home ✗
dc-xg	482429	1.68–1.24	1-1 11%	56%	58%	Home ✗
dc-xg-oos	472429	1.70–1.31	1-1 11%	58%	60%	Home ✗
deep	502426	1.68–1.15	1-1 11%	54%	55%	Home ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cusco FC to win	50.0%	47.4%	50.0%	0.95×	2.11
Melgar to win	26.3%	27.9%	25.1%	1.11×	3.59
Draw	23.7%	24.5%	25.1%	0.98×	4.08

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cusco FC & not both score	26.1%	25.1%	26.5%	0.95×	3.98
Cusco FC & both teams score	23.9%	21.9%	23.6%	0.93×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	18.0%	17.9%	17.5%	1.03×	5.58
Melgar & both teams score	13.3%	13.3%	13.1%	1.01×	7.53
Melgar & not both score	13.0%	13.3%	12.2%	1.09×	7.53
Draw & not both score	5.7%	8.4%	7.8%	1.07×	11.97

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cusco FC & over 1.5	39.8%	34.9%	38.2%	0.91×	2.87
Cusco FC & under 3.5	32.8%	30.8%	33.8%	0.91×	3.24
Cusco FC & over 2.5	31.4%	30.8%	30.9%	1.00×	3.24
Cusco FC & under 2.5	18.6%	18.0%	19.3%	0.93×	5.56
Melgar & over 1.5	19.3%	18.0%	17.3%	1.04×	5.56
Melgar & under 3.5	19.0%	18.0%	19.1%	0.94×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.0%	18.0%	17.5%	1.03×	5.56
Cusco FC & over 3.5	17.2%	18.0%	16.4%	1.10×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	16.9%	18.0%	18.9%	0.95×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	16.9%	18.0%	18.9%	0.95×	5.56
Melgar & over 2.5	15.3%	18.0%	14.4%	1.25×	5.56
Melgar & under 2.5	11.0%	12.9%	10.9%	1.18×	7.77
Cusco FC & under 1.5	10.2%	12.9%	12.0%	1.07×	7.77
Melgar & over 3.5	7.3%	7.9%	6.2%	1.28×	12.65
Draw & over 2.5	6.8%	7.9%	6.4%	1.24×	12.65
Draw & over 3.5	6.8%	7.9%	6.4%	1.24×	12.65
Melgar & under 1.5	7.1%	7.9%	8.0%	0.99×	12.65
Draw & under 1.5	5.7%	7.9%	7.8%	1.01×	12.65

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cusco FC (1UP)	64.9%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Melgar (1UP)	44.4%	39.5%	—	—	2.53

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cusco FC (2UP)	50.0%	50.0%	—	—	2.00
Melgar (2UP)	26.3%	24.7%	—	—	4.04

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cusco FC to win 2nd half	40.5%	41.2%	—	—	2.43
2nd half drawn	34.1%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Melgar to win 2nd half	25.4%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar under 1.5 in 2nd half	84.8%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Melgar under 0.5 in 2nd half	50.3%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Melgar over 0.5 in 2nd half	49.7%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Melgar over 1.5 in 2nd half	15.2%	15.7%	—	—	6.35

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cusco FC under 1.5 in 2nd half	75.2%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Cusco FC over 0.5 in 2nd half	61.5%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Cusco FC under 0.5 in 2nd half	38.5%	37.5%	—	—	2.67
Cusco FC over 1.5 in 2nd half	24.8%	24.2%	—	—	4.13

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (+2.5)	88.6%	88.6%	88.5%	1.00×	1.13
Cusco FC (+0.5)	73.7%	73.7%	74.9%	0.98×	1.36
Melgar (+1.5)	73.4%	73.7%	75.3%	0.98×	1.36
Melgar (+0.5)	50.0%	52.4%	50.0%	1.05×	1.91
Cusco FC (-0.5)	50.0%	47.6%	50.0%	0.95×	2.10
Cusco FC (-1.5)	26.6%	26.3%	24.7%	1.06×	3.81
Melgar (-0.5)	26.3%	26.3%	25.1%	1.05×	3.81
Cusco FC (-2.5)	11.4%	11.4%	11.5%	1.00×	8.74

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar to concede	81.3%	81.3%	80.2%	1.01×	1.23
Melgar clean sheet	18.7%	18.7%	19.8%	0.94×	5.36

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar clean sheet in 1st half	48.6%	50.9%	—	—	1.97
Melgar to concede in 1st half	51.4%	49.1%	—	—	2.04

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar to concede in 2nd half	61.5%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Melgar clean sheet in 2nd half	38.5%	40.0%	—	—	2.50

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar under 3.5 goals	97.1%	97.5%	97.5%	1.00×	1.03
Melgar under 2.5 goals	89.1%	87.9%	92.0%	0.95×	1.14
Melgar over 0.5 goals	68.2%	68.0%	65.8%	1.03×	1.47
Melgar under 1.5 goals	68.2%	68.0%	71.6%	0.95×	1.47
Melgar under 0.5 goals	31.8%	32.0%	34.2%	0.94×	3.13
Melgar over 1.5 goals	31.8%	32.0%	28.4%	1.13×	3.13
Melgar over 2.5 goals	10.9%	12.1%	8.0%	1.52×	8.23
Melgar over 3.5 goals	2.9%	2.5%	2.5%	0.98×	40.09

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar under 1.5 in 1st half	92.2%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Melgar under 0.5 in 1st half	63.2%	64.3%	—	—	1.56
Melgar over 0.5 in 1st half	36.8%	35.7%	—	—	2.80
Melgar over 1.5 in 1st half	7.8%	5.8%	—	—	17.15

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar scores equally in both	42.6%	43.8%	—	—	2.28
Melgar scores more in 2nd half	36.1%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Melgar scores more in 1st half	21.3%	22.4%	—	—	4.47

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cusco FC (away no bet)	67.8%	66.3%	66.6%	1.00×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	32.2%	33.7%	33.4%	1.01×	2.97

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar even goals	55.0%	56.9%	56.9%	1.00×	1.76
Melgar odd goals	45.0%	43.1%	43.1%	1.00×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	83.9%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	16.1%	17.1%	—	—	5.86

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	65.6%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	34.4%	31.6%	—	—	3.17

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	58.0%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
Cusco FC to score 2+ in a row	41.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Melgar to score 2+ in a row	23.0%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Either team to score 3+ in a row	21.6%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Cusco FC to score 3+ in a row	16.0%	16.3%	—	—	6.15
Melgar to score 3+ in a row	5.9%	5.6%	—	—	17.87

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.2%	11.4%	11.3%	1.02×	8.74
1-0	10.2%	11.4%	12.0%	0.95×	8.74
2-0	8.4%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.49
2-1	9.6%	7.4%	9.8%	0.76×	13.49
0-1	7.1%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.49
1-2	6.5%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.49
0-0	5.7%	7.4%	7.8%	0.95×	13.49
2-2	5.5%	7.4%	5.6%	1.32×	13.49
3-1	5.4%	7.4%	5.3%	1.41×	13.49
0-2	3.9%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.37
0-3	1.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.57×	58.38
0-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.5%	3.14×	58.39
1-3	2.5%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.37
1-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	58.38
2-3	2.1%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.38
2-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	58.38
3-0	4.7%	1.7%	5.1%	0.34×	58.36
3-2	3.1%	1.7%	3.8%	0.45×	58.37
3-3	1.2%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	58.38
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.36×	58.39
4-0	2.0%	1.7%	1.6%	1.05×	58.38
4-1	2.2%	1.7%	2.5%	0.67×	58.37
4-2	1.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.57×	58.38
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.4%	4.71×	58.38
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	9.41×	58.39
Any other score	3.4%	1.7%	2.7%	0.63×	58.37

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cusco FC (2nd half DNB)	61.5%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Melgar (2nd half DNB)	38.5%	38.7%	—	—	2.59

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cusco FC leading at HT (DNB)	64.3%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Melgar leading at HT (DNB)	35.7%	34.1%	—	—	2.93

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cusco FC or Melgar (12)	76.3%	75.5%	74.9%	1.01×	1.32
Cusco FC or draw (1X)	73.7%	72.1%	74.9%	0.96×	1.39
Melgar or draw (X2)	50.0%	52.6%	50.0%	1.05×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cusco FC or draw at HT	79.2%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Melgar or draw at HT	62.5%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Cusco FC or Melgar at HT	58.3%	57.0%	—	—	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cusco FC or draw (1UP)	73.7%	80.3%	—	—	1.25
Melgar or draw (1UP)	50.0%	59.1%	—	—	1.69

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cusco FC or draw in 2nd half	74.6%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
Cusco FC or Melgar in 2nd half	65.9%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Melgar or draw in 2nd half	59.5%	58.8%	—	—	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.9%	61.6%	—	—	1.62
Neither half drawn	38.1%	38.4%	—	—	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cusco FC (DNB)	65.5%	67.2%	66.6%	1.01×	1.49
Melgar (DNB)	34.5%	32.8%	33.4%	0.98×	3.05

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cusco FC to score first	56.0%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Melgar to score first	38.3%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
No goal scored	5.7%	7.4%	—	—	13.45

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	55.2%	54.9%	53.8%	1.02×	1.82
Not both teams to score	44.8%	45.1%	46.2%	0.98×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	44.0%	41.7%	42.7%	0.98×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	35.2%	38.4%	37.6%	1.02×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	11.2%	12.3%	11.3%	1.09×	8.12
Not both score & over 2.5	9.6%	8.3%	8.7%	0.96×	11.99

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	84.1%	82.9%	85.6%	0.97×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	15.9%	17.1%	14.4%	1.19×	5.84

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	69.5%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	30.5%	32.4%	—	—	3.09

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	56.4%	59.3%	—	—	1.69
Both score 2nd half only	24.7%	21.0%	—	—	4.75
Both score 1st half only	13.1%	10.7%	—	—	9.33
Both score in both halves	5.8%	6.8%	—	—	14.73

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	81.1%	82.3%	—	—	1.22
Both teams to score by HT	18.9%	17.7%	—	—	5.64

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	55.8%	57.0%	—	—	1.75
A half without a goal	44.2%	43.0%	—	—	2.33

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.7%	47.3%	44.2%	1.07×	2.11
4-6 goals	28.8%	26.6%	26.9%	0.99×	3.76
0-1 goals	23.0%	22.8%	27.5%	0.83×	4.38
7+ goals	2.5%	1.8%	1.8%	1.00×	54.75

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar to score exactly 1	36.4%	36.0%	37.6%	0.96×	2.78
Melgar to score exactly 0	31.8%	33.7%	34.2%	0.99×	2.96
Melgar to score exactly 2	20.9%	22.4%	20.5%	1.09×	4.47
Melgar to score 3+	10.9%	12.8%	8.0%	1.61×	7.78

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cusco FC to score exactly 1	31.4%	32.6%	32.9%	0.99×	3.07
Cusco FC to score exactly 2	26.3%	26.5%	25.1%	1.06×	3.77
Cusco FC to score 3+	23.7%	23.2%	22.5%	1.03×	4.31
Cusco FC to score exactly 0	18.7%	18.9%	19.8%	0.95×	5.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	41.7%	43.0%	—	—	2.32
Cusco FC leading at HT	37.5%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Melgar leading at HT	20.8%	20.1%	—	—	4.98

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cusco FC -1: 2	50.0%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Cusco FC -1: 1	26.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Cusco FC -1: X	23.4%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (0:1)	50.0%	51.3%	50.0%	1.03×	1.95
Cusco FC (0:1)	26.6%	27.0%	24.7%	1.09×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	23.4%	24.3%	25.5%	0.95×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (0:2)	73.4%	75.8%	75.3%	1.01×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	15.2%	15.2%	13.5%	1.13×	6.57
Cusco FC (0:2)	11.4%	10.9%	11.5%	0.95×	9.18

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (0:3)	88.6%	90.9%	88.5%	1.03×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	7.4%	5.8%	7.6%	0.76×	17.28
Cusco FC (0:3)	4.0%	2.4%	4.0%	0.59×	42.14

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (0:4)	96.0%	98.1%	96.0%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.8%	1.2%	2.5%	0.47×	83.28
Cusco FC (0:4)	1.2%	1.2%	1.6%	0.73×	83.47

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cusco FC (1:0)	73.7%	72.5%	74.9%	0.97×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	16.1%	17.0%	17.6%	0.96×	5.88
Melgar (1:0)	10.2%	12.7%	7.6%	1.67×	7.84

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cusco FC (2:0)	89.8%	88.5%	92.4%	0.96×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	7.1%	6.4%	5.6%	1.14×	15.54
Melgar (2:0)	3.1%	2.3%	2.2%	1.05×	43.73

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.4%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
1st half highest scoring	27.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.78
Halves equal	24.0%	24.1%	—	—	4.14

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cusco FC to concede	68.2%	66.6%	65.8%	1.01×	1.50
Cusco FC clean sheet	31.8%	33.4%	34.2%	0.98×	2.99

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cusco FC clean sheet in 1st half	63.2%	64.3%	—	—	1.55
Cusco FC to concede in 1st half	36.8%	35.7%	—	—	2.80

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cusco FC clean sheet in 2nd half	50.3%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Cusco FC to concede in 2nd half	49.7%	46.7%	—	—	2.14

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cusco FC under 3.5 goals	91.0%	92.2%	92.4%	1.00×	1.08
Cusco FC over 0.5 goals	81.3%	82.1%	80.2%	1.02×	1.22
Cusco FC under 2.5 goals	76.3%	77.8%	77.5%	1.00×	1.29
Cusco FC under 1.5 goals	50.1%	53.2%	52.5%	1.01×	1.88
Cusco FC over 1.5 goals	49.9%	46.8%	47.5%	0.99×	2.14
Cusco FC over 2.5 goals	23.7%	22.2%	22.5%	0.99×	4.50
Cusco FC under 0.5 goals	18.7%	17.9%	19.8%	0.90×	5.59
Cusco FC over 3.5 goals	9.0%	7.8%	7.6%	1.02×	12.89

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cusco FC under 1.5 in 1st half	83.7%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Cusco FC under 0.5 in 1st half	48.6%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
Cusco FC over 0.5 in 1st half	51.4%	49.0%	—	—	2.04
Cusco FC over 1.5 in 1st half	16.3%	15.7%	—	—	6.38

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cusco FC scores more in 2nd half	39.6%	37.6%	—	—	2.66
Cusco FC scores equally in both	34.0%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
Cusco FC scores more in 1st half	26.4%	28.0%	—	—	3.57

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (home no bet)	52.6%	51.4%	50.0%	1.03×	1.94
Draw (home no bet)	47.4%	48.6%	50.0%	0.97×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cusco FC even goals	51.7%	50.6%	50.5%	1.00×	1.98
Cusco FC odd goals	48.3%	49.4%	49.5%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	30.7%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
HT 1-0	22.2%	24.2%	—	—	4.14
HT 0-1	14.1%	10.9%	—	—	9.15
HT 1-1	10.1%	10.9%	—	—	9.19
HT 2-0	8.0%	7.1%	—	—	14.01
Any other HT score	4.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.20
HT 2-1	3.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.29
HT 0-2	3.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.32
HT 1-2	2.3%	2.3%	—	—	43.38
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.49

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cusco FC at HT / Cusco FC at FT	30.3%	32.6%	—	—	3.07
Draw at HT / Cusco FC at FT	17.0%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.0%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Melgar at HT / Melgar at FT	13.6%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Melgar at FT	10.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.91
Cusco FC at HT / Draw at FT	5.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.60
Melgar at HT / Draw at FT	4.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.95
Melgar at HT / Cusco FC at FT	2.7%	3.4%	—	—	29.03
Cusco FC at HT / Melgar at FT	2.0%	3.4%	—	—	29.05

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cusco FC to score last	56.0%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
Melgar to score last	38.3%	38.5%	—	—	2.59
No goal scored	5.7%	7.4%	—	—	13.45

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.3%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Cusco FC to lead by 1 at any time	64.9%	61.5%	—	—	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	48.7%	44.0%	—	—	2.27
Melgar to lead by 1 at any time	44.4%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Cusco FC to lead by 2 at any time	33.3%	29.4%	—	—	3.40
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	18.3%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
Melgar to lead by 2 at any time	15.6%	14.9%	—	—	6.72
Cusco FC to lead by 3 at any time	13.9%	10.5%	—	—	9.53
Melgar to lead by 3 at any time	4.4%	1.7%	—	—	60.04

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.6%	87.4%	87.1%	1.00×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.7%	78.7%	78.0%	1.01×	1.27
2-6 goals	74.5%	72.4%	70.9%	1.02×	1.38
2-5 goals	70.3%	72.4%	67.5%	1.07×	1.38
1-3 goals	63.0%	63.4%	63.8%	0.99×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.5%	63.4%	58.4%	1.09×	1.58
3-6 goals	51.1%	53.2%	49.6%	1.07×	1.88
3-5 goals	46.9%	48.6%	46.2%	1.05×	2.06
2-3 goals	45.7%	48.6%	44.2%	1.10×	2.06
1-2 goals	40.7%	43.5%	41.1%	1.06×	2.30
3-4 goals	38.0%	39.2%	37.1%	1.06×	2.55
4-6 goals	28.8%	30.3%	26.9%	1.12×	3.30
4-5 goals	24.6%	24.5%	23.5%	1.04×	4.08
5-6 goals	13.1%	14.9%	12.7%	1.17×	6.73
7+ goals	2.5%	2.6%	1.8%	1.40×	39.17

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cusco FC never behind	49.9%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Melgar never behind	29.4%	30.2%	—	—	3.31

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.7%	50.9%	46.9%	1.08×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.3%	49.1%	53.1%	0.93×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.6%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.4%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.7%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.3%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.3%	92.2%	92.2%	1.00×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	93.3%	92.2%	94.7%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	84.4%	82.3%	85.6%	0.96×	1.21
Over 1.5 goals	77.0%	77.4%	72.5%	1.07×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	68.7%	66.3%	71.5%	0.93×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	53.6%	52.6%	51.3%	1.03×	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	46.4%	47.4%	48.7%	0.97×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	31.3%	33.7%	28.5%	1.18×	2.96
Under 1.5 goals	23.0%	22.6%	27.5%	0.82×	4.42
Over 4.5 goals	15.6%	17.7%	14.4%	1.23×	5.66
Over 5.5 goals	6.7%	7.8%	5.3%	1.47×	12.89
Under 0.5 goals	5.7%	7.8%	7.8%	0.99×	12.89

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.4%	97.2%	98.1%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	92.6%	92.4%	94.2%	0.98×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	81.5%	81.0%	83.3%	0.97×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	70.0%	72.5%	65.1%	1.11×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	59.7%	55.6%	63.1%	0.88×	1.80
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	40.3%	44.4%	36.9%	1.20×	2.25
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	30.0%	27.5%	34.9%	0.79×	3.64
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	18.5%	19.0%	16.7%	1.13×	5.27
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	7.4%	7.6%	5.8%	1.31×	13.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.6%	2.8%	1.9%	1.48×	35.90

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.4%	88.9%	—	—	1.13
Over 0.5 in 1st half	69.3%	69.1%	—	—	1.45
Under 1.5 in 1st half	67.0%	69.0%	—	—	1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half	33.0%	31.0%	—	—	3.23
Under 0.5 in 1st half	30.7%	30.9%	—	—	3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.6%	11.1%	—	—	8.97

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	80.8%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	77.2%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	51.2%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	48.8%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	22.8%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	19.2%	17.2%	—	—	5.80

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar not to score in both halves	81.7%	84.4%	—	—	1.19
Cusco FC not to score in both halves	68.4%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Cusco FC to score in both halves	31.6%	29.4%	—	—	3.40
Melgar to score in both halves	18.3%	15.7%	—	—	6.39

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	55.2%	58.5%	53.8%	1.09×	1.71
Only Cusco FC scores	26.1%	26.0%	26.5%	0.98×	3.85
Only Melgar scores	13.0%	11.0%	12.2%	0.90×	9.08
Neither team scores	5.7%	7.2%	7.8%	0.92×	13.96

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.4%	22.6%	21.5%	1.05×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	22.9%	0.99×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	17.3%	17.4%	19.8%	0.88×	5.74
Exactly 4 goals	15.7%	17.4%	14.4%	1.21×	5.74
Exactly 5 goals	8.9%	7.6%	9.3%	0.82×	13.09
6 or more goals	6.7%	7.6%	5.3%	1.45×	13.10
Exactly 0 goals	5.7%	7.6%	7.8%	0.98×	13.10

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.3%	37.1%	—	—	2.70
No goals in 1st half	30.7%	35.8%	—	—	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	21.3%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
3+ goals in 1st half	11.6%	11.0%	—	—	9.06

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	48.8%	45.4%	—	—	2.20
1 goal in 2nd half	31.9%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
No goals in 2nd half	19.2%	17.2%	—	—	5.81

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar not to win both halves	94.7%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Cusco FC not to win both halves	84.9%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Cusco FC to win both halves	15.1%	15.7%	—	—	6.39
Melgar to win both halves	5.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.77

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cusco FC to win either half	62.9%	64.9%	—	—	1.54
Melgar to win neither half	59.1%	59.6%	—	—	1.68
Melgar to win either half	40.9%	40.4%	—	—	2.48
Cusco FC to win neither half	37.1%	35.1%	—	—	2.85

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar not to win to nil	87.0%	88.1%	87.8%	1.00×	1.14
Cusco FC not to win to nil	73.9%	75.4%	73.5%	1.03×	1.33
Cusco FC to win to nil	26.1%	24.6%	26.5%	0.93×	4.07
Melgar to win to nil	13.0%	11.9%	12.2%	0.97×	8.43

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	23.7%	24.2%	25.1%	0.96×	4.14
Cusco FC by 1	23.4%	24.2%	25.5%	0.95×	4.14
Melgar by 1	16.1%	16.9%	17.6%	0.96×	5.90
Cusco FC by 2	15.2%	16.9%	13.5%	1.26×	5.90
Cusco FC by 3+	11.4%	11.8%	11.5%	1.03×	8.50
Melgar by 2	7.1%	7.2%	5.6%	1.28×	13.84
Melgar by 3+	3.1%	2.7%	2.2%	1.25×	36.72

Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.