D.C. United v New York City — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 7 November 2026 · USA-MLS · 2627

USA-MLS results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

D.C. United

21:00 UTC

New York City

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 346h before kick-off

D.C. United win

29.5%

model 33.2%

Draw

27.3%

model 26.2%

New York City win

43.1%

model 40.7%

302743

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.3%
1-2 8.8%
0-1 8.1%
2-1 7.9%
1-0 7.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	54.3%	Under 2.5	45.7%
BTTS yes	58.2%	BTTS no	41.8%
D.C. United 1+	73.9%	D.C. United 2+	38.8%
New York City 1+	77.9%	New York City 2+	44.5%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.51. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

56/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

New York City (+0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 55%

68.7% fair odds 1.46

moderate signal · 1169 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

New York City (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 77%

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

New York City carry the stronger rating, 1512 Elo against 1405.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

New York City have an estimated 43.1% win probability, against 29.5% for D.C. United and 27.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.34 for D.C. United and 1.51 for New York City.

Why D.C. United

Nothing in the data singles out D.C. United.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.3%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.34 to 1.51. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why New York City can win

New York City carry the stronger rating, 1512 Elo against 1405.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for D.C. United, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for New York City, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

D.C. United: 36% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 16.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. New York City: 53% possession, 13.6 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

New York City are the model's most likely outcome at 43.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.3%. Confidence 56/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	332641	1.34–1.51	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	332740	1.25–1.40	1-1 13%	49%	54%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City to win	39.8%	36.4%	30.0%	1.21×	2.75
D.C. United to win	32.8%	30.4%	45.3%	0.67×	3.29
Draw	27.3%	27.9%	24.8%	1.12×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City & not both score	21.0%	21.8%	12.1%	1.81×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	19.6%	18.0%	19.2%	0.94×	5.56
New York City & both teams score	18.9%	18.0%	18.0%	1.00×	5.56
D.C. United & not both score	17.0%	18.0%	21.1%	0.85×	5.57
D.C. United & both teams score	15.9%	18.0%	24.4%	0.74×	5.57
Draw & not both score	7.7%	8.3%	5.8%	1.45×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City & over 1.5	30.5%	30.8%	23.7%	1.30×	3.25
New York City & under 3.5	28.1%	26.1%	18.8%	1.38×	3.84
D.C. United & over 1.5	24.6%	21.6%	37.2%	0.58×	4.63
D.C. United & under 3.5	23.7%	21.6%	28.4%	0.76×	4.63
New York City & over 2.5	23.6%	21.6%	20.5%	1.05×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	20.8%	21.6%	16.0%	1.35×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	20.8%	21.6%	16.0%	1.35×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.6%	18.0%	19.2%	0.94×	5.56
D.C. United & over 2.5	19.1%	18.0%	31.0%	0.58×	5.56
New York City & under 2.5	16.2%	18.0%	9.6%	1.88×	5.56
D.C. United & under 2.5	13.7%	12.8%	14.4%	0.89×	7.79
New York City & over 3.5	11.7%	12.8%	11.3%	1.14×	7.79
D.C. United & over 3.5	9.1%	7.9%	17.0%	0.47×	12.63
New York City & under 1.5	9.3%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.63
D.C. United & under 1.5	8.2%	7.9%	8.2%	0.96×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	7.7%	7.9%	5.8%	1.38×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.6%	7.9%	8.9%	0.89×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.6%	7.9%	8.9%	0.89×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City (1UP)	56.2%	58.0%	—	—	1.73
D.C. United (1UP)	50.1%	52.5%	—	—	1.91

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City (2UP)	39.8%	37.6%	—	—	2.66
D.C. United (2UP)	32.8%	30.5%	—	—	3.28

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	36.4%	36.0%	—	—	2.78
New York City to win 2nd half	35.5%	35.9%	—	—	2.78
D.C. United to win 2nd half	28.1%	25.9%	—	—	3.86

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City under 1.5 in 2nd half	79.5%	79.1%	—	—	1.26
New York City over 0.5 in 2nd half	56.8%	54.5%	—	—	1.83
New York City under 0.5 in 2nd half	43.2%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
New York City over 1.5 in 2nd half	20.5%	20.9%	—	—	4.78

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United under 1.5 in 2nd half	84.0%	82.6%	—	—	1.21
D.C. United over 0.5 in 2nd half	50.9%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
D.C. United under 0.5 in 2nd half	49.1%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
D.C. United over 1.5 in 2nd half	16.0%	17.4%	—	—	5.74

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City (+2.5)	95.2%	96.3%	89.4%	1.08×	1.04
New York City (+1.5)	85.7%	88.5%	76.8%	1.15×	1.13
New York City (+0.5)	67.2%	68.7%	54.7%	1.26×	1.46
D.C. United (+0.5)	60.2%	62.9%	70.0%	0.90×	1.59
New York City (-0.5)	39.8%	37.1%	30.0%	1.24×	2.70
D.C. United (-0.5)	32.8%	31.3%	45.3%	0.69×	3.19
D.C. United (-1.5)	14.3%	11.6%	23.2%	0.50×	8.66
D.C. United (-2.5)	4.8%	3.7%	10.6%	0.35×	27.00

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City to concede	71.3%	76.7%	82.3%	0.93×	1.30
New York City clean sheet	28.7%	23.3%	17.7%	1.32×	4.29

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City clean sheet in 1st half	58.5%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
New York City to concede in 1st half	41.5%	42.9%	—	—	2.33

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City to concede in 2nd half	50.9%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
New York City clean sheet in 2nd half	49.1%	45.2%	—	—	2.21

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City under 6.5 corners	81.2%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
New York City over 2.5 corners	75.3%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
New York City under 5.5 corners	70.7%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
New York City over 3.5 corners	58.9%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
New York City under 4.5 corners	57.1%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
New York City over 4.5 corners	42.9%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
New York City under 3.5 corners	41.1%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
New York City over 5.5 corners	29.3%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
New York City under 2.5 corners	24.7%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
New York City over 6.5 corners	18.8%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City under 3.5 goals	94.7%	92.4%	94.0%	0.98×	1.08
New York City under 2.5 goals	83.4%	81.5%	83.3%	0.98×	1.23
New York City over 0.5 goals	75.3%	76.2%	73.3%	1.04×	1.31
New York City under 1.5 goals	59.3%	59.4%	61.2%	0.97×	1.68
New York City over 1.5 goals	40.7%	40.6%	38.8%	1.05×	2.47
New York City under 0.5 goals	24.7%	23.8%	26.7%	0.89×	4.21
New York City over 2.5 goals	16.6%	18.5%	16.7%	1.11×	5.40
New York City over 3.5 goals	5.3%	7.6%	6.0%	1.28×	13.08

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City under 1.5 in 1st half	89.1%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
New York City under 0.5 in 1st half	57.2%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
New York City over 0.5 in 1st half	42.8%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
New York City over 1.5 in 1st half	10.9%	10.7%	—	—	9.30

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City scores more in 2nd half	39.5%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
New York City scores equally in both	37.7%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
New York City scores more in 1st half	22.8%	22.1%	—	—	4.52

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United (away no bet)	54.6%	51.7%	64.6%	0.80×	1.93
Draw (away no bet)	45.4%	48.3%	35.4%	1.36×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City even goals	53.1%	52.6%	53.6%	0.98×	1.90
New York City odd goals	46.9%	47.4%	46.4%	1.02×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	86.3%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	13.7%	12.2%	—	—	8.17

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	62.4%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Both halves under 1.5 goals	37.6%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	53.9%	51.1%	—	—	1.96
New York City to score 2+ in a row	32.6%	29.2%	—	—	3.43
D.C. United to score 2+ in a row	27.3%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Either team to score 3+ in a row	18.2%	16.3%	—	—	6.15
New York City to score 3+ in a row	10.6%	12.0%	—	—	8.34
D.C. United to score 3+ in a row	7.8%	5.6%	—	—	17.93

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United corners (+3.5)	88.6%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
D.C. United corners (+2.5)	82.6%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
New York City corners (+3.5)	75.0%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
D.C. United corners (+1.5)	74.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
New York City corners (+2.5)	66.1%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
New York City corners (+1.5)	55.9%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
D.C. United corners (-1.5)	44.1%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
D.C. United corners (-2.5)	33.9%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
New York City corners (-1.5)	25.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
D.C. United corners (-3.5)	25.0%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
New York City corners (-2.5)	17.4%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
New York City corners (-3.5)	11.4%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	40.3%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
12+ corners	30.3%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	77.3%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	70.1%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	69.7%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Under 10.5 corners	60.7%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	59.7%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	50.8%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	49.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	40.3%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 10.5 corners	39.3%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	30.3%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	29.9%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	22.7%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	13.0%	11.5%	10.4%	1.11×	8.72
0-1	9.3%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.50
1-2	8.7%	7.4%	7.7%	0.97×	13.51
0-0	7.7%	7.4%	5.8%	1.29×	13.51
0-2	6.9%	7.4%	3.3%	2.26×	13.51
1-0	8.2%	7.4%	8.2%	0.90×	13.51
2-1	7.7%	7.4%	10.0%	0.74×	13.51
2-0	5.5%	7.4%	6.3%	1.17×	13.51
2-2	5.4%	7.4%	6.1%	1.22×	13.51
0-3	3.2%	1.7%	1.8%	0.95×	58.30
0-4	1.1%	1.7%	0.8%	2.17×	58.31
1-3	4.0%	1.7%	3.4%	0.51×	58.30
1-4	1.4%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	58.31
2-3	2.5%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.31
2-4	0.9%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.31
3-0	2.3%	1.7%	4.2%	0.41×	58.31
3-1	3.2%	1.7%	4.8%	0.35×	58.30
3-2	2.2%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.31
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.31
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.7%	2.54×	58.32
4-0	0.7%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.32
4-1	1.0%	1.7%	2.4%	0.72×	58.31
4-2	0.7%	1.7%	1.6%	1.09×	58.32
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.8%	2.17×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.5%	3.80×	58.32
Any other score	2.3%	1.7%	4.7%	0.36×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City (2nd half DNB)	55.8%	59.6%	—	—	1.68
D.C. United (2nd half DNB)	44.2%	40.4%	—	—	2.48

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City leading at HT (DNB)	51.3%	55.7%	—	—	1.79
D.C. United leading at HT (DNB)	48.7%	44.3%	—	—	2.26

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United or New York City (12)	72.7%	72.1%	75.2%	0.96×	1.39
New York City or draw (X2)	67.2%	69.6%	54.7%	1.27×	1.44
D.C. United or draw (1X)	60.2%	63.6%	70.0%	0.91×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City or draw at HT	73.0%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
D.C. United or draw at HT	71.5%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
D.C. United or New York City at HT	55.5%	57.1%	—	—	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City or draw (1UP)	67.2%	76.2%	—	—	1.31
D.C. United or draw (1UP)	60.2%	71.5%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City or draw in 2nd half	71.9%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
D.C. United or draw in 2nd half	64.5%	64.1%	—	—	1.56
D.C. United or New York City in 2nd half	63.6%	64.0%	—	—	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	63.9%	61.6%	—	—	1.62
Neither half drawn	36.1%	38.4%	—	—	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City (DNB)	54.8%	51.0%	39.8%	1.28×	1.96
D.C. United (DNB)	45.2%	49.0%	60.2%	0.81×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City to score first	48.7%	46.1%	—	—	2.17
D.C. United to score first	43.5%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	7.7%	7.5%	—	—	13.39

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	54.3%	51.3%	61.3%	0.84×	1.95
Not both teams to score	45.7%	48.7%	38.7%	1.26×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	41.3%	41.6%	51.1%	0.81×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	37.7%	38.4%	29.5%	1.30×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	13.0%	12.4%	10.4%	1.19×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.0%	8.3%	9.2%	0.90×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	85.6%	85.6%	79.5%	1.08×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	14.5%	14.4%	20.5%	0.70×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	70.9%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.1%	26.4%	—	—	3.79

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	58.1%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	24.0%	21.4%	—	—	4.68
Both score 1st half only	12.8%	10.7%	—	—	9.31
Both score in both halves	5.1%	6.8%	—	—	14.81

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.1%	83.3%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	17.9%	16.7%	—	—	5.97

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	52.8%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
A half without a goal	47.2%	47.2%	—	—	2.12

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.4%	47.2%	43.0%	1.10×	2.12
4-6 goals	25.5%	26.6%	33.0%	0.81×	3.76
0-1 goals	25.2%	26.6%	20.2%	1.32×	3.76
7+ goals	1.9%	1.8%	4.1%	0.45×	54.32

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City to score exactly 1	34.5%	33.8%	34.6%	0.98×	2.95
New York City to score exactly 0	24.7%	22.3%	26.7%	0.84×	4.48
New York City to score exactly 2	24.1%	22.3%	22.2%	1.00×	4.48
New York City to score 3+	16.6%	19.6%	16.7%	1.17×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United to score exactly 1	35.8%	35.6%	31.1%	1.14×	2.81
D.C. United to score exactly 0	28.7%	26.6%	17.7%	1.50×	3.77
D.C. United to score exactly 2	22.4%	23.3%	26.4%	0.88×	4.29
D.C. United to score 3+	13.1%	14.3%	25.0%	0.57×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	44.5%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
New York City leading at HT	28.5%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
D.C. United leading at HT	27.0%	25.1%	—	—	3.99

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City -1: 1	60.2%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
New York City -1: X	20.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
New York City -1: 2	19.0%	17.5%	—	—	5.70

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City (0:1)	67.2%	65.2%	54.7%	1.19×	1.53
Draw (0:1)	18.5%	17.8%	22.2%	0.80×	5.61
D.C. United (0:1)	14.3%	13.7%	23.2%	0.59×	7.28

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City (0:2)	85.7%	87.1%	76.8%	1.13×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	9.5%	7.7%	12.7%	0.60×	13.02
D.C. United (0:2)	4.8%	3.8%	10.6%	0.35×	26.59

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City (0:3)	95.2%	96.6%	89.4%	1.08×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.5%	2.4%	6.7%	0.36×	42.06
D.C. United (0:3)	1.3%	2.4%	4.1%	0.58×	42.15

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City (0:4)	98.7%	98.1%	95.9%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.0%	1.2%	2.0%	0.60×	81.99
D.C. United (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	2.1%	0.57×	82.07

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United (1:0)	60.2%	65.3%	70.0%	0.93×	1.53
Draw (1:0)	20.8%	21.7%	17.1%	1.27×	4.61
New York City (1:0)	19.0%	17.1%	13.0%	1.32×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United (2:0)	81.0%	84.6%	87.0%	0.97×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	12.0%	10.3%	8.6%	1.20×	9.72
New York City (2:0)	7.0%	6.4%	4.5%	1.41×	15.69

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.3%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	26.4%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Halves equal	26.3%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United to concede	75.3%	76.0%	73.3%	1.04×	1.32
D.C. United clean sheet	24.7%	24.0%	26.7%	0.90×	4.17

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United clean sheet in 1st half	57.2%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
D.C. United to concede in 1st half	42.8%	38.1%	—	—	2.63

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United to concede in 2nd half	56.8%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
D.C. United clean sheet in 2nd half	43.2%	45.1%	—	—	2.22

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United over 2.5 corners	84.4%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
D.C. United over 3.5 corners	71.8%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
D.C. United under 6.5 corners	68.5%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
D.C. United over 4.5 corners	57.5%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
D.C. United under 5.5 corners	56.4%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
D.C. United over 5.5 corners	43.6%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
D.C. United under 4.5 corners	42.5%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
D.C. United over 6.5 corners	31.5%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
D.C. United under 3.5 corners	28.2%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
D.C. United under 2.5 corners	15.6%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United under 3.5 goals	96.2%	96.4%	90.6%	1.06×	1.04
D.C. United under 2.5 goals	86.9%	87.3%	75.0%	1.16×	1.15
D.C. United over 0.5 goals	71.3%	74.2%	82.3%	0.90×	1.35
D.C. United under 1.5 goals	64.5%	63.6%	48.7%	1.31×	1.57
D.C. United over 1.5 goals	35.5%	36.4%	51.3%	0.71×	2.75
D.C. United under 0.5 goals	28.7%	25.8%	17.7%	1.46×	3.88
D.C. United over 2.5 goals	13.1%	12.7%	25.0%	0.51×	7.85
D.C. United over 3.5 goals	3.8%	3.6%	9.4%	0.39×	27.50

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United under 1.5 in 1st half	89.8%	90.4%	—	—	1.11
D.C. United under 0.5 in 1st half	58.5%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
D.C. United over 0.5 in 1st half	41.5%	43.2%	—	—	2.32
D.C. United over 1.5 in 1st half	10.2%	9.6%	—	—	10.37

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United scores equally in both	40.8%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
D.C. United scores more in 2nd half	35.1%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
D.C. United scores more in 1st half	24.2%	21.3%	—	—	4.69

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City (home no bet)	59.3%	56.5%	54.7%	1.03×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	40.7%	43.5%	45.3%	0.96×	2.30

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United even goals	54.1%	50.7%	51.0%	1.00×	1.97
D.C. United odd goals	45.9%	49.3%	49.0%	1.01×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	33.5%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
HT 0-1	18.6%	18.6%	—	—	5.36
HT 1-0	17.8%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
HT 1-1	10.1%	11.0%	—	—	9.13
HT 0-2	5.2%	6.9%	—	—	14.50
HT 2-0	4.8%	2.4%	—	—	41.98
Any other HT score	3.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.06
HT 1-2	2.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.11
HT 2-1	2.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.12
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.25

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City at HT / New York City at FT	21.7%	21.6%	—	—	4.62
D.C. United at HT / D.C. United at FT	18.8%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.9%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / New York City at FT	15.4%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Draw at HT / D.C. United at FT	12.2%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
D.C. United at HT / Draw at FT	5.6%	6.0%	—	—	16.66
New York City at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.61
D.C. United at HT / New York City at FT	2.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.69
New York City at HT / D.C. United at FT	1.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.72

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City to score last	48.8%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
D.C. United to score last	43.5%	40.1%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	7.7%	7.5%	—	—	13.39

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.3%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
New York City to lead by 1 at any time	56.2%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
D.C. United to lead by 1 at any time	50.1%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	44.7%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
New York City to lead by 2 at any time	25.0%	19.7%	—	—	5.08
D.C. United to lead by 2 at any time	19.9%	15.0%	—	—	6.68
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	15.2%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
New York City to lead by 3 at any time	8.9%	6.7%	—	—	14.85
D.C. United to lead by 3 at any time	6.3%	6.7%	—	—	14.96

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United most corners	54.9%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
New York City most corners	34.6%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
Corners level	10.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.0%	87.4%	83.4%	1.05×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.3%	78.7%	73.2%	1.08×	1.27
2-6 goals	72.9%	72.4%	75.9%	0.95×	1.38
2-5 goals	69.5%	68.8%	69.0%	1.00×	1.45
1-3 goals	64.9%	63.3%	57.4%	1.10×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.9%	63.3%	58.7%	1.08×	1.58
2-3 goals	47.4%	48.5%	43.0%	1.13×	2.06
3-6 goals	47.4%	48.5%	56.3%	0.86×	2.06
3-5 goals	44.1%	43.6%	49.4%	0.88×	2.29
1-2 goals	43.0%	43.6%	34.2%	1.28×	2.29
3-4 goals	36.4%	39.2%	39.1%	1.00×	2.55
4-6 goals	25.5%	30.2%	33.0%	0.92×	3.31
4-5 goals	22.2%	24.5%	26.2%	0.94×	4.08
5-6 goals	11.0%	14.8%	17.2%	0.86×	6.76
7+ goals	1.9%	2.6%	4.1%	0.63×	39.14

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City never behind	42.1%	48.5%	—	—	2.06
D.C. United never behind	36.1%	44.0%	—	—	2.28

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.4%	50.9%	50.5%	1.01×	1.96
Even number of goals	51.6%	49.1%	49.5%	0.99×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.8%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	44.2%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.7%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.3%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.8%	92.3%	89.1%	1.04×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	92.3%	92.3%	94.3%	0.98×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	87.1%	87.6%	78.8%	1.11×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	74.8%	72.5%	79.8%	0.91×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	72.6%	72.5%	63.0%	1.15×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	50.7%	52.5%	39.8%	1.32×	1.91
Over 2.5 goals	49.3%	47.5%	60.2%	0.79×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	27.4%	27.5%	37.0%	0.74×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	25.2%	27.5%	20.2%	1.36×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	12.9%	12.4%	21.2%	0.59×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	7.7%	7.7%	5.8%	1.34×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	5.2%	7.7%	10.9%	0.71×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.1%	97.2%	95.6%	1.02×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.3%	92.4%	87.8%	1.05×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	84.9%	81.1%	74.8%	1.08×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	66.2%	67.4%	74.9%	0.90×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	64.9%	61.9%	51.8%	1.19×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	35.1%	38.1%	48.2%	0.79×	2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	33.8%	32.6%	25.1%	1.30×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	15.1%	18.9%	25.2%	0.75×	5.30
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.7%	7.6%	12.2%	0.62×	13.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.9%	2.8%	4.4%	0.64×	35.60

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.1%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	69.9%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Over 0.5 in 1st half	66.5%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	33.5%	31.5%	—	—	3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half	30.1%	31.4%	—	—	3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half	9.9%	7.5%	—	—	13.33

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.6%	79.2%	—	—	1.26
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	78.6%	79.2%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	53.9%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	46.1%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.4%	20.8%	—	—	4.80
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.4%	20.8%	—	—	4.81

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United not to score in both halves	78.9%	78.6%	—	—	1.27
New York City not to score in both halves	75.7%	78.4%	—	—	1.28
New York City to score in both halves	24.3%	21.6%	—	—	4.64
D.C. United to score in both halves	21.1%	21.4%	—	—	4.67

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	54.3%	53.9%	61.3%	0.88×	1.86
Only New York City scores	21.0%	22.2%	12.1%	1.84×	4.50
Only D.C. United scores	17.0%	16.0%	21.1%	0.76×	6.24
Neither team scores	7.7%	7.1%	5.8%	1.24×	14.04

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.5%	24.9%	19.7%	1.26×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	21.9%	22.6%	23.3%	0.97×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	17.5%	17.5%	14.5%	1.20×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	14.5%	12.1%	15.9%	0.76×	8.24
Exactly 0 goals	7.7%	7.6%	5.8%	1.32×	13.14
Exactly 5 goals	7.7%	7.6%	10.4%	0.73×	13.14
6 or more goals	5.2%	7.6%	10.9%	0.70×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.4%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	33.5%	35.8%	—	—	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	20.2%	21.4%	—	—	4.67
3+ goals in 1st half	9.9%	7.5%	—	—	13.33

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	46.1%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
1 goal in 2nd half	32.5%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	21.4%	22.9%	—	—	4.37

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United not to win both halves	92.3%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
New York City not to win both halves	89.8%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
New York City to win both halves	10.2%	12.0%	—	—	8.36
D.C. United to win both halves	7.7%	5.9%	—	—	16.96

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City to win either half	53.8%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
D.C. United to win neither half	52.5%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
D.C. United to win either half	47.5%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
New York City to win neither half	46.2%	45.7%	—	—	2.19

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
D.C. United not to win to nil	83.0%	83.1%	78.9%	1.05×	1.20
New York City not to win to nil	79.0%	78.1%	87.9%	0.89×	1.28
New York City to win to nil	21.0%	21.9%	12.1%	1.81×	4.58
D.C. United to win to nil	17.0%	16.9%	21.1%	0.80×	5.92

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	27.3%	27.9%	24.8%	1.12×	3.59
New York City by 1	20.8%	24.1%	17.1%	1.41×	4.15
D.C. United by 1	18.5%	17.0%	22.2%	0.77×	5.87
New York City by 2	12.0%	11.8%	8.6%	1.37×	8.51
D.C. United by 2	9.5%	7.2%	12.7%	0.56×	13.90
New York City by 3+	7.0%	7.2%	4.5%	1.59×	13.91
D.C. United by 3+	4.8%	2.7%	10.6%	0.26×	36.75