D.C. United v Red Bull New York — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 14 October 2026 · USA-MLS · 2627
USA-MLS
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,799 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 11.5%
- 2-1 9.3%
- 1-0 8.0%
- 1-2 7.2%
- 2-0 7.2%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 57.4% | Under 2.5 | 42.6% |
| BTTS yes | 59.8% | BTTS no | 40.2% |
| D.C. United 1+ | 81.5% | D.C. United 2+ | 50.2% |
| Red Bull New York 1+ | 72.8% | Red Bull New York 2+ | 37.4% |
Expected goals 1.69 – 1.30. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Nothing in the data singles out D.C. United.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
D.C. United have an estimated 48.6% win probability, against 28.0% for Red Bull New York and 23.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.69 for D.C. United and 1.30 for Red Bull New York.
Why D.C. United
Nothing in the data singles out D.C. United.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 23.4%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Red Bull New York can win
Nothing in the data singles out Red Bull New York.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for D.C. United, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Red Bull New York, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
D.C. United: 38% possession, 13.8 shots a match, 15.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Red Bull New York: 52% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
D.C. United are the model's most likely outcome at 48.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.5%. Confidence 56/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 1.65–1.23 | 1-1 12% | 55% | 58% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.