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Dalian Yingbo v Qingdao Hainiu — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 September 2026 · CHN-Super League · 2627

CHN-Super League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Dalian Yingbo win
54.8%
Draw
23.7%
Qingdao Hainiu win
21.5%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.82–1.06 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.90–1.08 1-1 11% 57% 57%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo to win 54.8% 52.1% 46.0% 1.13× 1.92
Draw 23.7% 22.2% 26.2% 0.85× 4.51
Qingdao Hainiu to win 21.5% 22.1% 28.0% 0.79× 4.52
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo & not both score 28.6% 26.4% 23.2% 1.14× 3.79
Dalian Yingbo & both teams score 26.2% 26.3% 23.0% 1.14× 3.80
Draw & both teams score 17.7% 17.8% 22.1% 0.80× 5.63
Qingdao Hainiu & both teams score 11.3% 12.1% 18.5% 0.66× 8.24
Qingdao Hainiu & not both score 10.2% 12.1% 9.8% 1.24× 8.25
Draw & not both score 6.0% 7.3% 4.3% 1.69× 13.70
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo & over 1.5 45.0% 46.6% 36.4% 1.28× 2.15
Dalian Yingbo & over 2.5 35.7% 37.5% 29.4% 1.28× 2.67
Dalian Yingbo & under 3.5 34.6% 33.2% 27.3% 1.21× 3.01
Dalian Yingbo & over 3.5 20.2% 21.5% 18.9% 1.14× 4.65
Dalian Yingbo & under 2.5 19.1% 17.6% 16.9% 1.04× 5.69
Draw & over 1.5 17.7% 17.6% 22.1% 0.80× 5.69
Draw & under 2.5 17.2% 17.6% 16.4% 1.07× 5.69
Draw & under 3.5 17.2% 17.6% 16.4% 1.07× 5.69
Qingdao Hainiu & over 1.5 16.0% 17.6% 23.7% 0.74× 5.70
Qingdao Hainiu & under 3.5 15.5% 17.6% 15.9% 1.10× 5.70
Qingdao Hainiu & over 2.5 12.8% 12.7% 21.0% 0.61× 7.86
Dalian Yingbo & under 1.5 9.8% 7.5% 9.8% 0.76× 13.40
Qingdao Hainiu & under 2.5 8.7% 7.5% 7.3% 1.02× 13.40
Draw & over 2.5 6.5% 7.5% 10.0% 0.74× 13.41
Draw & over 3.5 6.5% 7.5% 10.0% 0.74× 13.41
Draw & under 1.5 6.0% 7.5% 4.3% 1.72× 13.42
Qingdao Hainiu & over 3.5 6.0% 7.5% 12.3% 0.61× 13.42
Qingdao Hainiu & under 1.5 5.5% 7.5% 4.6% 1.64× 13.42
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo (1UP) 68.8% 72.3% 1.38
Qingdao Hainiu (1UP) 40.0% 38.3% 2.61
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo (2UP) 54.8% 54.1% 1.85
Qingdao Hainiu (2UP) 21.5% 21.0% 4.75
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo to win 2nd half 44.4% 39.6% 2.53
2nd half drawn 33.6% 33.8% 2.96
Qingdao Hainiu to win 2nd half 22.0% 22.3% 4.49
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao Hainiu (+2.5) 85.5% 88.9% 89.3% 1.00× 1.13
Dalian Yingbo (+0.5) 78.5% 78.6% 72.0% 1.09× 1.27
Qingdao Hainiu (+1.5) 68.6% 69.0% 74.7% 0.92× 1.45
Dalian Yingbo (-0.5) 54.8% 51.7% 46.0% 1.12× 1.94
Qingdao Hainiu (+0.5) 45.2% 48.3% 54.0% 0.89× 2.07
Dalian Yingbo (-1.5) 31.4% 31.0% 25.3% 1.23× 3.23
Qingdao Hainiu (-0.5) 21.5% 21.4% 28.0% 0.76× 4.67
Dalian Yingbo (-2.5) 14.5% 11.1% 10.7% 1.03× 9.03
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao Hainiu to concede 83.9% 84.9% 86.1% 0.99× 1.18
Qingdao Hainiu clean sheet 16.1% 15.1% 13.9% 1.09× 6.63
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao Hainiu to concede in 1st half 54.4% 54.8% 1.82
Qingdao Hainiu clean sheet in 1st half 45.6% 45.2% 2.21
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao Hainiu under 3.5 goals 97.7% 97.3% 92.9% 1.05× 1.03
Qingdao Hainiu under 2.5 goals 90.8% 92.6% 83.1% 1.11× 1.08
Qingdao Hainiu under 1.5 goals 71.3% 71.9% 60.8% 1.18× 1.39
Qingdao Hainiu over 0.5 goals 65.4% 67.1% 72.7% 0.92× 1.49
Qingdao Hainiu under 0.5 goals 34.6% 32.9% 27.3% 1.20× 3.04
Qingdao Hainiu over 1.5 goals 28.7% 28.1% 39.2% 0.72× 3.56
Qingdao Hainiu over 2.5 goals 9.2% 7.4% 16.9% 0.44× 13.51
Qingdao Hainiu over 3.5 goals 2.3% 2.7% 7.1% 0.38× 37.52
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao Hainiu under 1.5 in 1st half 93.2% 93.3% 1.07
Qingdao Hainiu under 0.5 in 1st half 65.4% 67.0% 1.49
Qingdao Hainiu over 0.5 in 1st half 34.6% 33.0% 3.03
Qingdao Hainiu over 1.5 in 1st half 6.8% 6.7% 14.84
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo (away no bet) 69.8% 71.9% 63.7% 1.13× 1.39
Draw (away no bet) 30.2% 28.1% 36.3% 0.77× 3.56
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao Hainiu even goals 56.0% 57.9% 54.7% 1.06× 1.73
Qingdao Hainiu odd goals 44.0% 42.1% 45.3% 0.93× 2.38
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 83.0% 81.7% 1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals 17.0% 18.3% 5.48
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 67.2% 65.2% 1.54
Both halves under 1.5 goals 32.8% 34.8% 2.87
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 59.9% 59.3% 1.69
Dalian Yingbo to score 2+ in a row 46.3% 47.6% 2.10
Either team to score 3+ in a row 23.8% 21.8% 4.59
Qingdao Hainiu to score 2+ in a row 20.1% 21.7% 4.61
Dalian Yingbo to score 3+ in a row 19.4% 17.9% 5.60
Qingdao Hainiu to score 3+ in a row 4.6% 3.4% 29.20
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 11.2% 11.6% 12.3% 0.94× 8.64
1-0 9.8% 7.3% 9.8% 0.74× 13.74
2-1 9.9% 7.3% 7.5% 0.97× 13.73
2-0 9.3% 7.3% 7.3% 1.00× 13.74
0-0 6.0% 7.3% 4.3% 1.68× 13.75
3-1 6.0% 7.3% 6.2% 1.18× 13.75
0-1 5.5% 7.3% 4.6% 1.60× 13.75
1-2 5.7% 7.3% 7.5% 0.97× 13.75
3-0 5.6% 7.3% 3.4% 2.13× 13.75
2-2 5.2% 7.3% 7.5% 0.97× 13.76
Any other score 4.3% 1.8% 4.8% 0.38× 55.40
0-2 3.1% 1.8% 3.0% 0.61× 55.43
3-2 3.2% 1.8% 3.6% 0.50× 55.43
4-0 2.6% 1.8% 2.7% 0.66× 55.44
4-1 2.7% 1.8% 2.5% 0.72× 55.44
1-3 2.0% 1.8% 3.2% 0.57× 55.46
2-3 1.9% 1.8% 3.2% 0.57× 55.46
4-2 1.5% 1.8% 1.6% 1.13× 55.47
0-3 1.1% 1.8% 1.6% 1.13× 55.48
0-4 0.3% 1.8% 1.1% 1.58× 55.50
1-4 0.5% 1.8% 1.1% 1.58× 55.50
2-4 0.5% 1.8% 1.4% 1.32× 55.50
3-3 1.1% 1.8% 2.1% 0.88× 55.48
3-4 0.3% 1.8% 1.6% 1.13× 55.50
4-3 0.5% 1.8% 0.7% 2.64× 55.50
4-4 0.1% 1.8% 0.9% 1.98× 55.51
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo leading at HT (DNB) 69.1% 67.3% 1.49
Qingdao Hainiu leading at HT (DNB) 30.9% 32.7% 3.06
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo or draw (1X) 78.5% 77.9% 72.0% 1.08× 1.28
Dalian Yingbo or Qingdao Hainiu (12) 76.3% 77.8% 73.8% 1.05× 1.29
Qingdao Hainiu or draw (X2) 45.2% 47.9% 54.0% 0.89× 2.09
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo or draw at HT 81.7% 81.6% 1.23
Dalian Yingbo or Qingdao Hainiu at HT 59.2% 58.2% 1.72
Qingdao Hainiu or draw at HT 59.1% 58.2% 1.72
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo or draw (1UP) 78.5% 84.7% 1.18
Qingdao Hainiu or draw (1UP) 45.2% 54.8% 1.83
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo or draw in 2nd half 78.0% 77.7% 1.29
Dalian Yingbo or Qingdao Hainiu in 2nd half 66.4% 66.2% 1.51
Qingdao Hainiu or draw in 2nd half 55.6% 60.4% 1.66
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 60.2% 59.3% 1.69
Neither half drawn 39.8% 40.7% 2.46
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo (DNB) 71.8% 71.3% 62.2% 1.15× 1.40
Qingdao Hainiu (DNB) 28.2% 28.7% 37.8% 0.76× 3.48
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo to score first 59.4% 62.2% 1.61
Qingdao Hainiu to score first 34.6% 32.0% 3.12
No goal scored 6.0% 6.2% 16.08
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 55.2% 56.6% 63.1% 0.90× 1.77
Not both teams to score 44.8% 43.4% 36.9% 1.18× 2.31
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 44.0% 42.3% 51.0% 0.83× 2.36
Not both score & under 2.5 33.7% 34.5% 28.0% 1.23× 2.90
Both score & under 2.5 11.2% 11.7% 12.3% 0.95× 8.54
Not both score & over 2.5 11.0% 11.7% 9.1% 1.29× 8.54
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 84.4% 81.3% 78.4% 1.04× 1.23
Both teams to score 2+ 15.6% 18.7% 21.6% 0.86× 5.36
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 69.4% 69.5% 1.44
Both teams to score in 2nd half 30.6% 30.5% 3.28
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 56.3% 57.6% 1.74
Both score 2nd half only 24.9% 24.5% 4.09
Both score 1st half only 13.1% 11.6% 8.64
Both score in both halves 5.7% 6.4% 15.52
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 81.1% 83.1% 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 18.9% 16.9% 5.93
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 57.2% 55.6% 1.80
A half without a goal 42.8% 44.4% 2.25
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.0% 45.9% 41.2% 1.11× 2.18
4-6 goals 29.9% 27.8% 36.9% 0.75× 3.60
0-1 goals 21.3% 22.8% 18.2% 1.25× 4.40
7+ goals 2.8% 2.0% 4.1% 0.48× 51.19
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao Hainiu to score exactly 1 36.7% 34.6% 33.7% 1.03× 2.89
Qingdao Hainiu to score exactly 0 34.6% 33.3% 27.3% 1.22× 3.00
Qingdao Hainiu to score exactly 2 19.5% 18.4% 22.6% 0.82× 5.43
Qingdao Hainiu to score 3+ 9.2% 7.7% 16.9% 0.46× 12.99
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo to score exactly 1 29.4% 27.1% 34.2% 0.79× 3.69
Dalian Yingbo to score 3+ 27.6% 27.1% 26.2% 1.03× 3.69
Dalian Yingbo to score exactly 2 26.8% 27.1% 26.2% 1.03× 3.70
Dalian Yingbo to score exactly 0 16.1% 18.5% 13.9% 1.33× 5.42
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo leading at HT 40.9% 41.8% 2.40
Draw at HT 40.8% 41.8% 2.40
Qingdao Hainiu leading at HT 18.3% 18.4% 5.45
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo -1: 2 45.2% 47.4% 2.11
Dalian Yingbo -1: 1 31.4% 32.1% 3.12
Dalian Yingbo -1: X 23.4% 24.0% 4.18
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao Hainiu (0:1) 45.2% 48.0% 54.0% 0.89× 2.09
Dalian Yingbo (0:1) 31.4% 34.5% 25.3% 1.36× 2.90
Draw (0:1) 23.4% 24.4% 21.0% 1.17× 4.09
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao Hainiu (0:2) 68.6% 66.1% 74.7% 0.88× 1.51
Draw (0:2) 16.9% 16.3% 14.8% 1.10× 6.13
Dalian Yingbo (0:2) 14.5% 11.8% 10.7% 1.10× 8.48
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao Hainiu (0:3) 85.5% 88.2% 89.3% 0.99× 1.13
Draw (0:3) 9.0% 7.0% 5.9% 1.18× 14.37
Dalian Yingbo (0:3) 5.5% 6.9% 5.0% 1.37× 14.56
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao Hainiu (0:4) 94.5% 94.2% 95.0% 0.99× 1.06
Draw (0:4) 3.7% 1.3% 3.9% 0.33× 79.44
Dalian Yingbo (0:4) 1.8% 1.2% 1.4% 0.91× 80.44
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo (1:0) 78.5% 78.1% 72.0% 1.09× 1.28
Draw (1:0) 13.5% 11.8% 16.4% 0.72× 8.47
Qingdao Hainiu (1:0) 8.0% 8.6% 11.8% 0.72× 11.66
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo (2:0) 92.0% 91.7% 88.2% 1.04× 1.09
Draw (2:0) 5.7% 6.6% 7.1% 0.93× 15.23
Qingdao Hainiu (2:0) 2.3% 2.7% 5.0% 0.54× 37.24
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.0% 48.7% 2.05
1st half highest scoring 27.3% 26.1% 3.83
Halves equal 24.7% 23.2% 4.30
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo to concede 65.4% 66.8% 72.7% 0.92× 1.50
Dalian Yingbo clean sheet 34.6% 33.2% 27.3% 1.22× 3.01
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo clean sheet in 1st half 65.4% 67.2% 1.49
Dalian Yingbo to concede in 1st half 34.6% 32.8% 3.05
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo under 3.5 goals 88.8% 87.8% 89.5% 0.98× 1.14
Dalian Yingbo over 0.5 goals 83.9% 82.5% 86.1% 0.96× 1.21
Dalian Yingbo under 2.5 goals 72.4% 72.7% 73.8% 0.99× 1.38
Dalian Yingbo over 1.5 goals 54.4% 52.8% 52.2% 1.01× 1.89
Dalian Yingbo under 1.5 goals 45.6% 47.2% 47.8% 0.99× 2.12
Dalian Yingbo over 2.5 goals 27.6% 27.3% 26.2% 1.04× 3.67
Dalian Yingbo under 0.5 goals 16.1% 17.5% 13.9% 1.26× 5.70
Dalian Yingbo over 3.5 goals 11.2% 12.2% 10.5% 1.16× 8.22
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo under 1.5 in 1st half 81.4% 80.4% 1.24
Dalian Yingbo over 0.5 in 1st half 54.4% 54.8% 1.83
Dalian Yingbo under 0.5 in 1st half 45.6% 45.2% 2.21
Dalian Yingbo over 1.5 in 1st half 18.6% 19.6% 5.10
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao Hainiu (home no bet) 47.6% 51.4% 51.7% 0.99× 1.95
Draw (home no bet) 52.4% 48.6% 48.3% 1.01× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo even goals 51.3% 50.2% 48.3% 1.04× 1.99
Dalian Yingbo odd goals 48.7% 49.8% 51.7% 0.96× 2.01
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 29.9% 28.2% 3.55
HT 1-0 23.3% 22.7% 4.41
HT 0-1 12.6% 11.2% 8.93
HT 1-1 10.0% 11.2% 8.96
HT 2-0 9.2% 7.7% 12.98
Any other HT score 5.4% 7.7% 13.03
HT 2-1 3.9% 2.5% 39.78
HT 0-2 2.7% 2.5% 39.85
HT 1-2 2.1% 2.5% 39.88
HT 2-2 0.8% 2.5% 39.95
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo at HT / Dalian Yingbo at FT 34.1% 34.4% 2.91
Draw at HT / Dalian Yingbo at FT 17.9% 16.8% 5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 14.1% 12.0% 8.34
Qingdao Hainiu at HT / Qingdao Hainiu at FT 11.0% 12.0% 8.37
Draw at HT / Qingdao Hainiu at FT 8.8% 6.6% 15.18
Dalian Yingbo at HT / Draw at FT 5.1% 6.5% 15.27
Qingdao Hainiu at HT / Draw at FT 4.5% 3.4% 29.33
Qingdao Hainiu at HT / Dalian Yingbo at FT 2.8% 3.4% 29.39
Dalian Yingbo at HT / Qingdao Hainiu at FT 1.7% 3.4% 29.44
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo to score last 59.5% 56.7% 1.76
Qingdao Hainiu to score last 34.5% 35.9% 2.78
No goal scored 6.0% 6.2% 16.08
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 94.0% 93.7% 1.07
Dalian Yingbo to lead by 1 at any time 68.8% 71.0% 1.41
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 50.9% 50.9% 1.97
Qingdao Hainiu to lead by 1 at any time 40.0% 37.4% 2.68
Dalian Yingbo to lead by 2 at any time 38.2% 37.3% 2.68
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 20.6% 19.7% 5.07
Dalian Yingbo to lead by 3 at any time 17.2% 17.7% 5.66
Qingdao Hainiu to lead by 2 at any time 12.9% 11.3% 8.82
Qingdao Hainiu to lead by 3 at any time 3.4% 2.6% 38.14
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.8% 87.9% 84.7% 1.04× 1.14
1-4 goals 77.5% 78.8% 74.7% 1.06× 1.27
2-6 goals 75.9% 78.8% 77.9% 1.01× 1.27
2-5 goals 71.4% 73.6% 70.8% 1.04× 1.36
2-4 goals 62.1% 62.3% 60.8% 1.02× 1.61
1-3 goals 61.3% 62.3% 55.1% 1.13× 1.61
3-6 goals 52.3% 52.3% 56.0% 0.93× 1.91
3-5 goals 47.8% 48.0% 49.0% 0.98× 2.08
2-3 goals 46.0% 48.0% 41.2% 1.16× 2.08
1-2 goals 39.0% 38.9% 36.0% 1.08× 2.57
3-4 goals 38.5% 38.9% 39.0% 1.00× 2.57
4-6 goals 29.9% 30.5% 36.9% 0.83× 3.28
4-5 goals 25.4% 30.4% 29.8% 1.02× 3.29
5-6 goals 13.8% 13.5% 17.3% 0.78× 7.41
7+ goals 2.8% 2.0% 4.1% 0.50× 49.21
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo never behind 54.0% 61.4% 1.63
Qingdao Hainiu never behind 25.2% 30.8% 3.24
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.1% 50.1% 46.2% 1.08× 2.00
Even number of goals 50.9% 49.9% 53.8% 0.93× 2.01
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.6% 51.9% 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 45.4% 48.1% 2.08
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.0% 51.7% 1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.0% 48.3% 2.07
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 94.0% 93.0% 95.7% 0.97× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 92.7% 92.9% 88.8% 1.05× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 83.4% 81.0% 78.8% 1.03× 1.24
Over 1.5 goals 78.7% 78.3% 81.8% 0.96× 1.28
Under 3.5 goals 67.3% 65.5% 59.2% 1.11× 1.53
Over 2.5 goals 55.1% 57.6% 59.9% 0.96× 1.74
Under 2.5 goals 44.9% 42.4% 40.1% 1.06× 2.36
Over 3.5 goals 32.7% 34.5% 40.8% 0.85× 2.90
Under 1.5 goals 21.3% 21.7% 18.2% 1.19× 4.60
Over 4.5 goals 16.6% 19.0% 21.2% 0.90× 5.26
Over 5.5 goals 7.3% 7.1% 11.2% 0.63× 14.18
Under 0.5 goals 6.0% 7.0% 4.3% 1.63× 14.21
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.1% 97.2% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 92.0% 92.7% 87.6% 1.06× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 80.2% 80.6% 73.7% 1.09× 1.24
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 72.1% 72.1% 76.7% 0.94× 1.39
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 57.9% 55.4% 49.6% 1.12× 1.81
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 42.1% 44.6% 50.4% 0.88× 2.24
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 27.9% 27.9% 23.3% 1.20× 3.58
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 19.8% 19.4% 26.3% 0.74× 5.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 8.0% 7.3% 12.4% 0.59× 13.72
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.9% 2.8% 4.4% 0.63× 36.00
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 87.8% 88.1% 1.14
Over 0.5 in 1st half 70.1% 72.4% 1.38
Under 1.5 in 1st half 65.9% 68.5% 1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half 34.1% 31.5% 3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half 29.9% 27.6% 3.62
Over 2.5 in 1st half 12.2% 11.9% 8.39
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 81.2% 82.0% 1.22
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 76.4% 80.2% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 49.9% 51.9% 1.93
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 50.1% 48.1% 2.08
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 23.7% 19.8% 5.06
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 18.8% 18.0% 5.57
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao Hainiu not to score in both halves 83.7% 81.6% 1.23
Dalian Yingbo not to score in both halves 64.9% 62.7% 1.59
Dalian Yingbo to score in both halves 35.1% 37.3% 2.68
Qingdao Hainiu to score in both halves 16.3% 18.4% 5.42
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 55.2% 57.6% 63.1% 0.91× 1.74
Only Dalian Yingbo scores 28.6% 25.7% 23.2% 1.11× 3.89
Only Qingdao Hainiu scores 10.2% 10.7% 9.8% 1.10× 9.31
Neither team scores 6.0% 6.6% 4.3% 1.53× 15.08
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 23.6% 21.6% 22.1% 0.98× 4.64
Exactly 3 goals 22.4% 21.5% 19.4% 1.11× 4.64
Exactly 4 goals 16.1% 18.5% 19.8% 0.94× 5.39
Exactly 1 goals 15.3% 18.5% 14.1% 1.31× 5.40
Exactly 5 goals 9.3% 7.6% 10.3% 0.74× 13.11
6 or more goals 7.3% 7.6% 11.2% 0.68× 13.14
Exactly 0 goals 6.0% 7.6% 4.3% 1.76× 13.16
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 50.1% 47.3% 2.12
1 goal in 2nd half 31.1% 33.1% 3.02
No goals in 2nd half 18.8% 18.4% 5.43
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao Hainiu not to win both halves 95.9% 96.6% 1.04
Dalian Yingbo not to win both halves 81.7% 82.8% 1.21
Dalian Yingbo to win both halves 18.3% 17.2% 5.82
Qingdao Hainiu to win both halves 4.1% 3.4% 29.83
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo to win either half 67.1% 67.2% 1.49
Qingdao Hainiu to win neither half 63.8% 63.7% 1.57
Qingdao Hainiu to win either half 36.2% 36.3% 2.75
Dalian Yingbo to win neither half 32.9% 32.8% 3.05
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Qingdao Hainiu not to win to nil 89.8% 88.4% 90.2% 0.98× 1.13
Dalian Yingbo not to win to nil 71.4% 74.3% 76.8% 0.97× 1.35
Dalian Yingbo to win to nil 28.6% 25.7% 23.2% 1.11× 3.89
Qingdao Hainiu to win to nil 10.2% 11.6% 9.8% 1.19× 8.59
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 23.7% 23.8% 26.2% 0.91× 4.21
Dalian Yingbo by 1 23.4% 23.8% 21.0% 1.13× 4.21
Dalian Yingbo by 2 16.9% 17.0% 14.8% 1.15× 5.89
Dalian Yingbo by 3+ 14.5% 11.9% 10.7% 1.11× 8.42
Qingdao Hainiu by 1 13.5% 11.9% 16.4% 0.72× 8.43
Qingdao Hainiu by 2 5.7% 7.1% 7.1% 1.00× 14.14
Qingdao Hainiu by 3+ 2.3% 2.8% 5.0% 0.56× 35.45
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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