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Dalian Yingbo v Shenzhen Xinpengcheng — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 17 October 2026 · CHN-Super League · 2627

CHN-Super League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Dalian Yingbo win
46.5%
model 47.0%
Draw
26.8%
model 26.6%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng win
26.8%
model 26.4%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,799 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 12.7%
  2. 1-0 11.0%
  3. 2-1 9.3%
  4. 2-0 8.6%
  5. 0-0 8.0%

Goals

Over 2.547.8% Under 2.552.2%
BTTS yes51.8% BTTS no48.2%
Dalian Yingbo 1+78.0% Dalian Yingbo 2+44.7%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng 1+65.8% Shenzhen Xinpengcheng 2+29.1%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.07. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
21/100
Data quality
55/100
Model agreement
96%
★ Best pick
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.
★ Most likely to land
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

  • Dalian Yingbo carry the stronger rating, 1503 Elo against 1420.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0120 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Dalian Yingbo have an estimated 46.5% win probability, against 26.8% for the draw and 26.8% for Shenzhen Xinpengcheng. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.51 for Dalian Yingbo and 1.07 for Shenzhen Xinpengcheng.

Why Dalian Yingbo

Dalian Yingbo carry the stronger rating, 1503 Elo against 1420.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.8%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Shenzhen Xinpengcheng can win

Nothing in the data singles out Shenzhen Xinpengcheng.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Dalian Yingbo, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Shenzhen Xinpengcheng, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Dalian Yingbo: 40% possession, 9.2 shots a match, 14.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng: 45% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 10.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Dalian Yingbo are the model's most likely outcome at 46.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.7%. Confidence 21/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 1.66–1.08 1-1 12% 52% 54%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo to win 50.6% 51.5% 46.0% 1.12× 1.94
Draw 25.2% 27.8% 26.2% 1.06× 3.59
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to win 24.2% 24.5% 28.0% 0.87× 4.08
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo & not both score 27.2% 25.1% 23.2% 1.08× 3.98
Dalian Yingbo & both teams score 23.4% 21.8% 23.0% 0.95× 4.58
Draw & both teams score 18.3% 17.9% 22.1% 0.81× 5.58
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng & both teams score 12.1% 13.3% 18.5% 0.72× 7.54
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng & not both score 12.1% 13.3% 9.8% 1.35× 7.54
Draw & not both score 6.9% 8.4% 4.3% 1.94× 11.94
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo & over 1.5 40.2% 40.3% 36.4% 1.11× 2.48
Dalian Yingbo & under 3.5 33.8% 30.8% 27.3% 1.13× 3.24
Dalian Yingbo & over 2.5 31.3% 30.8% 29.4% 1.05× 3.24
Dalian Yingbo & under 2.5 19.3% 18.0% 16.9% 1.07× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 18.9% 18.0% 16.4% 1.10× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 18.9% 18.0% 16.4% 1.10× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 18.3% 18.0% 22.1% 0.81× 5.56
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng & over 1.5 17.7% 18.0% 23.7% 0.76× 5.56
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng & under 3.5 17.9% 18.0% 15.9% 1.13× 5.56
Dalian Yingbo & over 3.5 16.7% 18.0% 18.9% 0.95× 5.56
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng & over 2.5 13.9% 12.9% 21.0% 0.61× 7.76
Dalian Yingbo & under 1.5 10.4% 12.9% 9.8% 1.32× 7.76
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng & under 2.5 10.3% 12.9% 7.3% 1.77× 7.76
Draw & under 1.5 6.9% 7.9% 4.3% 1.83× 12.65
Draw & over 2.5 6.3% 7.9% 10.0% 0.79× 12.65
Draw & over 3.5 6.3% 7.9% 10.0% 0.79× 12.65
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng & under 1.5 6.6% 7.9% 4.6% 1.74× 12.65
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng & over 3.5 6.3% 7.9% 12.3% 0.64× 12.65
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo (1UP) 65.0% 69.8% 1.43
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (1UP) 42.1% 39.3% 2.55
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo (2UP) 50.6% 55.4% 1.80
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (2UP) 24.2% 23.8% 4.20
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo to win 2nd half 41.0% 41.0% 2.44
2nd half drawn 35.1% 35.9% 2.79
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to win 2nd half 23.9% 23.2% 4.32
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (+2.5) 88.3% 88.6% 89.3% 0.99× 1.13
Dalian Yingbo (+0.5) 75.8% 78.4% 72.0% 1.09× 1.28
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (+1.5) 72.7% 73.8% 74.7% 0.99× 1.36
Dalian Yingbo (-0.5) 50.6% 52.4% 46.0% 1.14× 1.91
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (+0.5) 49.4% 47.6% 54.0% 0.88× 2.10
Dalian Yingbo (-1.5) 27.3% 26.3% 25.3% 1.04× 3.81
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (-0.5) 24.2% 21.6% 28.0% 0.77× 4.63
Dalian Yingbo (-2.5) 11.7% 11.4% 10.7% 1.07× 8.74
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to concede 81.0% 81.3% 86.1% 0.94× 1.23
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng clean sheet 19.0% 18.7% 13.9% 1.35× 5.34
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng clean sheet in 1st half 49.0% 50.8% 1.97
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to concede in 1st half 51.0% 49.2% 2.03
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng under 6.5 corners 86.7% 85.2% 1.17
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng under 5.5 corners 77.4% 76.0% 1.32
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng over 2.5 corners 70.9% 71.6% 1.40
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng under 4.5 corners 64.1% 61.8% 1.62
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng over 3.5 corners 52.7% 53.1% 1.89
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng under 3.5 corners 47.3% 46.9% 2.13
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng over 4.5 corners 35.9% 38.2% 2.62
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng under 2.5 corners 29.1% 28.4% 3.52
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng over 5.5 corners 22.6% 24.0% 4.16
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng over 6.5 corners 13.3% 14.8% 6.76
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng under 3.5 goals 97.6% 97.5% 92.9% 1.05× 1.03
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng under 2.5 goals 90.5% 92.3% 83.1% 1.11× 1.08
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng under 1.5 goals 70.8% 71.9% 60.8% 1.18× 1.39
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng over 0.5 goals 65.9% 68.0% 72.7% 0.94× 1.47
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng under 0.5 goals 34.1% 32.0% 27.3% 1.17× 3.12
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng over 1.5 goals 29.2% 28.1% 39.2% 0.72× 3.55
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng over 2.5 goals 9.5% 7.7% 16.9% 0.46× 12.98
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng over 3.5 goals 2.4% 2.5% 7.1% 0.35× 40.05
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng under 1.5 in 1st half 93.0% 94.2% 1.06
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng under 0.5 in 1st half 65.0% 68.3% 1.46
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng over 0.5 in 1st half 35.0% 31.7% 3.16
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng over 1.5 in 1st half 7.0% 5.8% 17.24
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo (away no bet) 66.7% 66.3% 63.7% 1.04× 1.51
Draw (away no bet) 33.3% 33.7% 36.3% 0.93× 2.97
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng even goals 55.8% 56.9% 54.7% 1.04× 1.76
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng odd goals 44.2% 43.1% 45.3% 0.95× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 85.0% 87.6% 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 15.0% 12.4% 8.04
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 64.2% 58.2% 1.72
Both halves under 1.5 goals 35.8% 41.8% 2.40
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 56.6% 55.1% 1.81
Dalian Yingbo to score 2+ in a row 41.4% 38.2% 2.62
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to score 2+ in a row 21.1% 19.5% 5.14
Either team to score 3+ in a row 20.9% 19.4% 5.14
Dalian Yingbo to score 3+ in a row 16.0% 16.3% 6.15
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to score 3+ in a row 5.1% 5.6% 17.93
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo corners (+3.5) 95.4% 95.8% 1.04
Dalian Yingbo corners (+2.5) 92.2% 89.6% 1.12
Dalian Yingbo corners (+1.5) 87.4% 84.5% 1.18
Dalian Yingbo corners (-1.5) 63.3% 61.9% 1.62
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng corners (+3.5) 57.1% 57.1% 1.75
Dalian Yingbo corners (-2.5) 53.1% 52.5% 1.91
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng corners (+2.5) 46.9% 47.5% 2.10
Dalian Yingbo corners (-3.5) 42.9% 42.9% 2.33
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng corners (+1.5) 36.7% 38.2% 2.62
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng corners (-1.5) 12.6% 15.5% 6.45
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng corners (-2.5) 7.8% 10.4% 9.58
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng corners (-3.5) 4.6% 4.2% 23.62
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 40.2% 38.2% 2.62
0-8 corners 30.0% 33.2% 3.01
9-11 corners 29.7% 31.2% 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 79.0% 76.6% 1.31
Over 8.5 corners 70.0% 67.7% 1.48
Under 12.5 corners 68.6% 67.7% 1.48
Over 9.5 corners 60.1% 63.3% 1.58
Under 11.5 corners 59.8% 57.9% 1.73
Under 10.5 corners 50.1% 53.2% 1.88
Over 10.5 corners 49.9% 46.8% 2.14
Over 11.5 corners 40.2% 42.1% 2.38
Under 9.5 corners 39.9% 36.7% 2.72
Over 12.5 corners 31.4% 32.3% 3.10
Under 8.5 corners 30.0% 32.3% 3.10
Under 7.5 corners 21.0% 23.4% 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 12.0% 11.4% 12.3% 0.93× 8.74
1-0 10.4% 11.4% 9.8% 1.17× 8.74
2-0 8.9% 7.4% 7.3% 1.02× 13.50
2-1 9.6% 7.4% 7.5% 0.99× 13.50
0-0 6.9% 7.4% 4.3% 1.71× 13.50
0-1 6.6% 7.4% 4.6% 1.63× 13.50
1-2 6.2% 7.4% 7.5% 0.99× 13.50
2-2 5.2% 7.4% 7.5% 0.99× 13.50
3-1 5.3% 7.4% 6.2% 1.20× 13.50
3-0 4.9% 1.7% 3.4% 0.50× 58.29
0-2 3.8% 1.7% 3.0% 0.58× 58.30
0-3 1.3% 1.7% 1.6% 1.08× 58.31
0-4 0.4% 1.7% 1.1% 1.51× 58.32
1-3 2.2% 1.7% 3.2% 0.54× 58.31
1-4 0.6% 1.7% 1.1% 1.51× 58.32
2-3 1.9% 1.7% 3.2% 0.54× 58.31
2-4 0.5% 1.7% 1.4% 1.25× 58.32
3-2 2.9% 1.7% 3.6% 0.47× 58.30
3-3 1.0% 1.7% 2.1% 0.84× 58.31
3-4 0.3% 1.7% 1.6% 1.08× 58.32
4-0 2.0% 1.7% 2.7% 0.63× 58.31
4-1 2.2% 1.7% 2.5% 0.68× 58.31
4-2 1.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.08× 58.31
4-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.7% 2.51× 58.32
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.9% 1.88× 58.32
Any other score 3.2% 1.7% 4.8% 0.36× 58.30
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo leading at HT (DNB) 65.8% 73.1% 1.37
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng leading at HT (DNB) 34.2% 26.9% 3.72
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo or draw (1X) 75.8% 75.5% 72.0% 1.05× 1.33
Dalian Yingbo or Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (12) 74.8% 72.2% 73.8% 0.98× 1.39
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng or draw (X2) 49.4% 48.5% 54.0% 0.90× 2.06
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo or draw at HT 80.4% 84.3% 1.19
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng or draw at HT 62.2% 62.0% 1.61
Dalian Yingbo or Shenzhen Xinpengcheng at HT 57.4% 56.9% 1.76
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo or draw (1UP) 75.8% 83.8% 1.19
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng or draw (1UP) 49.4% 52.9% 1.89
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo or draw in 2nd half 76.1% 76.8% 1.30
Dalian Yingbo or Shenzhen Xinpengcheng in 2nd half 64.9% 64.1% 1.56
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng or draw in 2nd half 59.0% 59.0% 1.70
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 62.3% 61.7% 1.62
Neither half drawn 37.7% 38.3% 2.61
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo (DNB) 67.6% 67.2% 62.2% 1.08× 1.49
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (DNB) 32.4% 32.8% 37.8% 0.87× 3.05
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo to score first 56.5% 61.9% 1.62
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to score first 36.6% 32.8% 3.05
No goal scored 6.9% 7.5% 13.36
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 53.8% 51.4% 63.1% 0.81× 1.95
Not both teams to score 46.2% 48.6% 36.9% 1.32× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 41.8% 41.6% 51.0% 0.82× 2.40
Not both score & under 2.5 36.5% 38.5% 28.0% 1.37× 2.60
Both score & under 2.5 12.0% 12.3% 12.3% 1.00× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 9.7% 8.3% 9.1% 0.92× 11.99
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 85.6% 85.6% 78.4% 1.09× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 14.4% 14.4% 21.6% 0.67× 6.93
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 70.8% 74.0% 1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half 29.2% 26.0% 3.84
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 58.0% 59.4% 1.68
Both score 2nd half only 24.0% 20.9% 4.79
Both score 1st half only 12.7% 10.7% 9.32
Both score in both halves 5.2% 6.7% 14.89
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 82.1% 82.4% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 17.9% 17.6% 5.69
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 54.5% 53.5% 1.87
A half without a goal 45.5% 46.5% 2.15
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.8% 47.3% 41.2% 1.15× 2.12
4-6 goals 27.2% 26.6% 36.9% 0.72× 3.76
0-1 goals 23.8% 22.8% 18.2% 1.25× 4.38
7+ goals 2.2% 1.8% 4.1% 0.45× 54.67
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to score exactly 1 36.7% 36.0% 33.7% 1.07× 2.78
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to score exactly 0 34.1% 33.8% 27.3% 1.24× 2.96
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to score exactly 2 19.7% 19.6% 22.6% 0.87× 5.09
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to score 3+ 9.5% 8.6% 16.9% 0.51× 11.70
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo to score exactly 1 31.6% 32.6% 34.2% 0.95× 3.07
Dalian Yingbo to score exactly 2 26.2% 26.5% 26.2% 1.01× 3.77
Dalian Yingbo to score 3+ 23.2% 23.2% 26.2% 0.89× 4.31
Dalian Yingbo to score exactly 0 19.0% 18.9% 13.9% 1.36× 5.29
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 42.6% 43.1% 2.32
Dalian Yingbo leading at HT 37.8% 38.0% 2.63
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng leading at HT 19.6% 15.7% 6.37
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo -1: 2 49.4% 46.9% 2.13
Dalian Yingbo -1: 1 27.3% 26.6% 3.77
Dalian Yingbo -1: X 23.3% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (0:1) 49.4% 46.0% 54.0% 0.85× 2.17
Dalian Yingbo (0:1) 27.3% 27.0% 25.3% 1.07× 3.70
Draw (0:1) 23.3% 24.3% 21.0% 1.16× 4.12
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (0:2) 72.7% 75.8% 74.7% 1.01× 1.32
Draw (0:2) 15.6% 15.2% 14.8% 1.03× 6.56
Dalian Yingbo (0:2) 11.7% 10.9% 10.7% 1.02× 9.17
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (0:3) 88.3% 90.9% 89.3% 1.02× 1.10
Draw (0:3) 7.6% 5.8% 5.9% 0.98× 17.28
Dalian Yingbo (0:3) 4.1% 2.4% 5.0% 0.47× 42.05
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (0:4) 95.9% 98.1% 95.0% 1.03× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.9% 1.2% 3.9% 0.31× 83.41
Dalian Yingbo (0:4) 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 0.88× 83.61
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo (1:0) 75.8% 78.4% 72.0% 1.09× 1.28
Draw (1:0) 15.0% 12.8% 16.4% 0.78× 7.82
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (1:0) 9.3% 7.0% 11.8% 0.59× 14.38
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo (2:0) 90.7% 93.9% 88.2% 1.06× 1.07
Draw (2:0) 6.6% 6.4% 7.1% 0.91× 15.51
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (2:0) 2.7% 2.3% 5.0% 0.46× 43.68
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 47.4% 48.2% 2.08
1st half highest scoring 27.1% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 25.5% 26.5% 3.78
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo to concede 65.9% 66.5% 72.7% 0.92× 1.50
Dalian Yingbo clean sheet 34.1% 33.5% 27.3% 1.22× 2.99
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo clean sheet in 1st half 65.0% 68.6% 1.46
Dalian Yingbo to concede in 1st half 35.0% 31.4% 3.19
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo over 2.5 corners 93.1% 89.3% 1.12
Dalian Yingbo over 3.5 corners 85.4% 86.3% 1.16
Dalian Yingbo over 4.5 corners 75.0% 71.9% 1.39
Dalian Yingbo over 5.5 corners 62.9% 62.2% 1.61
Dalian Yingbo over 6.5 corners 50.3% 52.6% 1.90
Dalian Yingbo under 6.5 corners 49.7% 47.4% 2.11
Dalian Yingbo under 5.5 corners 37.1% 37.8% 2.65
Dalian Yingbo under 4.5 corners 25.0% 28.1% 3.56
Dalian Yingbo under 3.5 corners 14.6% 13.7% 7.31
Dalian Yingbo under 2.5 corners 6.9% 10.7% 9.34
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo under 3.5 goals 91.3% 92.2% 89.5% 1.03× 1.08
Dalian Yingbo over 0.5 goals 81.0% 82.1% 86.1% 0.95× 1.22
Dalian Yingbo under 2.5 goals 76.8% 77.7% 73.8% 1.05× 1.29
Dalian Yingbo under 1.5 goals 50.6% 53.2% 47.8% 1.11× 1.88
Dalian Yingbo over 1.5 goals 49.4% 46.8% 52.2% 0.90× 2.14
Dalian Yingbo over 2.5 goals 23.2% 22.3% 26.2% 0.85× 4.49
Dalian Yingbo under 0.5 goals 19.0% 17.9% 13.9% 1.29× 5.58
Dalian Yingbo over 3.5 goals 8.7% 7.8% 10.5% 0.74× 12.87
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo under 1.5 in 1st half 84.0% 84.3% 1.19
Dalian Yingbo under 0.5 in 1st half 49.0% 50.9% 1.96
Dalian Yingbo over 0.5 in 1st half 51.0% 49.1% 2.04
Dalian Yingbo over 1.5 in 1st half 16.0% 15.7% 6.38
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 51.0% 51.5% 48.3% 1.07× 1.94
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (home no bet) 49.0% 48.5% 51.7% 0.94× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo even goals 51.8% 50.6% 48.3% 1.05× 1.98
Dalian Yingbo odd goals 48.2% 49.4% 51.7% 0.95× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 31.9% 32.2% 3.10
HT 1-0 22.7% 24.2% 4.14
HT 0-1 13.6% 10.9% 9.14
HT 1-1 9.9% 7.2% 13.98
HT 2-0 8.1% 7.1% 14.01
Any other HT score 4.5% 2.3% 43.37
HT 2-1 3.5% 2.3% 43.45
HT 0-2 3.0% 2.3% 43.49
HT 1-2 2.1% 2.3% 43.55
HT 2-2 0.8% 2.3% 43.65
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo at HT / Dalian Yingbo at FT 30.8% 32.7% 3.06
Draw at HT / Dalian Yingbo at FT 17.2% 16.8% 5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 15.4% 16.7% 5.98
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng at HT / Shenzhen Xinpengcheng at FT 12.5% 12.7% 7.90
Draw at HT / Shenzhen Xinpengcheng at FT 9.9% 6.0% 16.59
Dalian Yingbo at HT / Draw at FT 5.2% 6.0% 16.73
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng at HT / Draw at FT 4.6% 3.5% 28.74
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng at HT / Dalian Yingbo at FT 2.6% 3.5% 28.82
Dalian Yingbo at HT / Shenzhen Xinpengcheng at FT 1.8% 3.5% 28.85
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo to score last 56.5% 56.5% 1.77
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to score last 36.6% 38.4% 2.60
No goal scored 6.9% 7.5% 13.36
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 93.1% 92.6% 1.08
Dalian Yingbo to lead by 1 at any time 65.0% 69.3% 1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 47.7% 44.0% 2.27
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to lead by 1 at any time 42.1% 39.2% 2.55
Dalian Yingbo to lead by 2 at any time 33.7% 29.4% 3.40
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 17.9% 14.9% 6.72
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to lead by 2 at any time 14.2% 10.5% 9.52
Dalian Yingbo to lead by 3 at any time 14.0% 10.5% 9.53
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to lead by 3 at any time 3.8% 1.7% 60.61
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo most corners 72.8% 70.6% 1.42
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng most corners 19.0% 19.1% 5.24
Corners level 8.2% 8.4% 11.91
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.1% 87.4% 84.7% 1.03× 1.15
1-4 goals 78.9% 78.6% 74.7% 1.05× 1.27
2-6 goals 74.0% 72.4% 77.9% 0.93× 1.38
2-5 goals 70.2% 72.4% 70.8% 1.02× 1.38
1-3 goals 63.7% 63.4% 55.1% 1.15× 1.58
2-4 goals 61.9% 63.4% 60.8% 1.04× 1.58
3-6 goals 49.3% 48.6% 56.0% 0.87× 2.06
2-3 goals 46.8% 48.6% 41.2% 1.18× 2.06
3-5 goals 45.5% 48.6% 49.0% 0.99× 2.06
1-2 goals 41.6% 43.6% 36.0% 1.21× 2.30
3-4 goals 37.3% 39.2% 39.0% 1.01× 2.55
4-6 goals 27.2% 30.3% 36.9% 0.82× 3.30
4-5 goals 23.4% 24.5% 29.8% 0.82× 4.08
5-6 goals 12.0% 14.9% 17.3% 0.86× 6.73
7+ goals 2.2% 2.6% 4.1% 0.62× 39.14
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo never behind 51.0% 61.8% 1.62
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng never behind 28.0% 30.1% 3.32
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.0% 50.8% 46.2% 1.10× 1.97
Even number of goals 51.0% 49.2% 53.8% 0.91× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.2% 57.4% 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 44.8% 42.6% 2.35
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.4% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.6% 48.0% 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 94.0% 92.2% 88.8% 1.04× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 93.1% 92.2% 95.7% 0.96× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 85.8% 87.6% 78.8% 1.11× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 76.2% 77.4% 81.8% 0.95× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 70.6% 72.5% 59.2% 1.22× 1.38
Over 2.5 goals 51.5% 52.6% 59.9% 0.88× 1.90
Under 2.5 goals 48.5% 47.4% 40.1% 1.18× 2.11
Over 3.5 goals 29.4% 27.5% 40.8% 0.68× 3.63
Under 1.5 goals 23.8% 22.6% 18.2% 1.24× 4.42
Over 4.5 goals 14.2% 12.4% 21.2% 0.58× 8.07
Under 0.5 goals 6.9% 7.8% 4.3% 1.79× 12.87
Over 5.5 goals 6.0% 7.8% 11.2% 0.70× 12.88
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.7% 97.2% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 93.5% 92.4% 87.6% 1.05× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 83.2% 81.0% 73.7% 1.10× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 68.4% 67.5% 76.7% 0.88× 1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 62.3% 61.9% 49.6% 1.25× 1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 37.7% 38.1% 50.4% 0.76× 2.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 31.6% 32.5% 23.3% 1.39× 3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 16.8% 19.0% 26.3% 0.72× 5.27
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 6.5% 7.6% 12.4% 0.61× 13.16
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.3% 2.8% 4.4% 0.63× 35.86
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 89.1% 89.1% 1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half 68.2% 69.1% 1.45
Over 0.5 in 1st half 68.1% 69.1% 1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half 31.9% 30.9% 3.23
Over 1.5 in 1st half 31.8% 30.9% 3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half 10.9% 10.9% 9.14
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 79.5% 79.8% 1.25
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 78.6% 79.8% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 52.6% 53.3% 1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 47.4% 46.7% 2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 21.4% 20.2% 4.94
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 20.5% 20.2% 4.95
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng not to score in both halves 83.4% 84.4% 1.19
Dalian Yingbo not to score in both halves 68.8% 70.6% 1.42
Dalian Yingbo to score in both halves 31.2% 29.4% 3.40
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to score in both halves 16.6% 15.6% 6.41
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 53.8% 53.9% 63.1% 0.85× 1.86
Only Dalian Yingbo scores 27.2% 26.0% 23.2% 1.12× 3.84
Only Shenzhen Xinpengcheng scores 12.1% 11.0% 9.8% 1.12× 9.10
Neither team scores 6.9% 7.2% 4.3% 1.66× 13.91
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 24.7% 22.6% 22.1% 1.02× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 22.1% 22.6% 19.4% 1.17× 4.43
Exactly 1 goals 16.9% 17.4% 14.1% 1.24× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 15.1% 17.4% 19.8% 0.88× 5.74
Exactly 5 goals 8.3% 7.6% 10.3% 0.75× 13.08
Exactly 0 goals 6.9% 7.6% 4.3% 1.77× 13.08
6 or more goals 6.0% 7.6% 11.2% 0.68× 13.09
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 47.4% 44.8% 2.23
1 goal in 2nd half 32.1% 33.3% 3.00
No goals in 2nd half 20.5% 22.9% 4.36
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng not to win both halves 95.3% 97.2% 1.03
Dalian Yingbo not to win both halves 84.4% 84.3% 1.19
Dalian Yingbo to win both halves 15.6% 15.7% 6.38
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to win both halves 4.7% 2.8% 35.25
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo to win either half 63.2% 65.1% 1.54
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to win neither half 61.2% 65.0% 1.54
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to win either half 38.8% 35.0% 2.86
Dalian Yingbo to win neither half 36.8% 34.9% 2.86
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng not to win to nil 87.9% 88.2% 90.2% 0.98× 1.13
Dalian Yingbo not to win to nil 72.8% 75.4% 76.8% 0.98× 1.33
Dalian Yingbo to win to nil 27.2% 24.6% 23.2% 1.06× 4.06
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng to win to nil 12.1% 11.8% 9.8% 1.21× 8.44
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 25.2% 27.8% 26.2% 1.06× 3.59
Dalian Yingbo by 1 23.3% 24.2% 21.0% 1.15× 4.14
Dalian Yingbo by 2 15.6% 16.9% 14.8% 1.14× 5.91
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng by 1 15.0% 11.8% 16.4% 0.72× 8.49
Dalian Yingbo by 3+ 11.7% 11.8% 10.7% 1.10× 8.50
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng by 2 6.6% 7.2% 7.1% 1.03× 13.81
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng by 3+ 2.7% 2.7% 5.0% 0.54× 36.67
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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