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Dalian Yingbo v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 November 2026 · CHN-Super League · 2627

CHN-Super League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Dalian Yingbo win
39.9%
model 38.6%
Draw
29.0%
model 29.1%
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger win
31.2%
model 32.3%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 13.7%
  2. 1-0 11.6%
  3. 0-0 10.3%
  4. 0-1 10.3%
  5. 2-1 8.1%

Goals

Over 2.540.9% Under 2.559.1%
BTTS yes47.4% BTTS no52.6%
Dalian Yingbo 1+70.6% Dalian Yingbo 2+34.6%
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger 1+66.5% Tianjin Jinmen Tiger 2+29.9%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.09. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
24/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
Not both teams to score
GG/NG · usually 37%
53.4% fair odds 1.87
strong signal · 1528 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (0:2)
Handicap 0:2 · usually 75%
83.7% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out Dalian Yingbo.

Risk factors

  • The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0107 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Dalian Yingbo have an estimated 39.9% win probability, against 31.2% for Tianjin Jinmen Tiger and 29.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.22 for Dalian Yingbo and 1.09 for Tianjin Jinmen Tiger.

Why Dalian Yingbo

Nothing in the data singles out Dalian Yingbo.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 29.0%. A combined 2.32 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.22 to 1.09. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Tianjin Jinmen Tiger can win

Nothing in the data singles out Tianjin Jinmen Tiger.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Dalian Yingbo, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Tianjin Jinmen Tiger, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Dalian Yingbo: 40% possession, 9.2 shots a match, 14.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Tianjin Jinmen Tiger: 42% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 14.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Dalian Yingbo are the model's most likely outcome at 39.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.7%. Confidence 24/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.22–1.09 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.20–1.10 1-1 14% 40% 47%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo to win 37.7% 36.3% 46.0% 0.79× 2.75
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger to win 33.0% 30.4% 27.9% 1.09× 3.29
Draw 29.3% 27.9% 26.3% 1.06× 3.58
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo & not both score 22.7% 21.8% 23.4% 0.93× 4.59
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger & not both score 19.6% 18.0% 9.8% 1.84× 5.56
Draw & both teams score 18.8% 18.0% 22.2% 0.81× 5.56
Dalian Yingbo & both teams score 15.0% 18.0% 22.9% 0.78× 5.57
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger & both teams score 13.3% 13.3% 18.4% 0.72× 7.54
Draw & not both score 10.5% 13.3% 4.3% 3.08× 7.54
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo & under 3.5 29.5% 26.1% 27.4% 0.95× 3.84
Dalian Yingbo & over 1.5 26.2% 26.1% 36.3% 0.72× 3.84
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger & under 3.5 26.2% 26.1% 15.9% 1.64× 3.84
Draw & under 2.5 24.2% 21.6% 16.6% 1.31× 4.63
Draw & under 3.5 24.2% 21.6% 16.6% 1.31× 4.63
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger & over 1.5 22.4% 21.6% 23.6% 0.92× 4.63
Dalian Yingbo & over 2.5 19.0% 18.0% 29.3% 0.62× 5.55
Dalian Yingbo & under 2.5 18.7% 18.0% 17.0% 1.06× 5.55
Draw & over 1.5 18.8% 18.0% 22.2% 0.81× 5.55
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger & under 2.5 16.6% 18.0% 7.3% 2.48× 5.56
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger & over 2.5 16.3% 18.0% 20.9% 0.86× 5.56
Dalian Yingbo & under 1.5 11.5% 12.8% 10.0% 1.29× 7.79
Draw & under 1.5 10.5% 12.8% 4.3% 2.98× 7.79
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger & under 1.5 10.6% 12.8% 4.5% 2.83× 7.79
Dalian Yingbo & over 3.5 8.2% 7.9% 18.8% 0.42× 12.63
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger & over 3.5 6.8% 7.9% 12.2% 0.65× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 5.1% 7.9% 10.0% 0.79× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 5.1% 7.9% 10.0% 0.79× 12.63
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo (1UP) 52.5% 52.4% — — 1.91
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (1UP) 48.2% 43.9% — — 2.28
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo (2UP) 37.7% 37.3% — — 2.68
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (2UP) 33.0% 30.3% — — 3.30
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 39.6% 36.5% — — 2.74
Dalian Yingbo to win 2nd half 30.9% 34.0% — — 2.94
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger to win 2nd half 29.5% 26.1% — — 3.83
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger under 1.5 in 2nd half 85.8% 87.0% — — 1.15
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger under 0.5 in 2nd half 51.6% 52.4% — — 1.91
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger over 0.5 in 2nd half 48.4% 47.6% — — 2.10
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger over 1.5 in 2nd half 14.2% 13.0% — — 7.71
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo under 1.5 in 2nd half 85.0% 82.6% — — 1.21
Dalian Yingbo under 0.5 in 2nd half 50.5% 54.9% — — 1.82
Dalian Yingbo over 0.5 in 2nd half 49.5% 45.1% — — 2.22
Dalian Yingbo over 1.5 in 2nd half 15.0% 17.4% — — 5.73
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (+2.5) 94.6% 92.1% 89.3% 1.03× 1.09
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (+1.5) 83.7% 82.6% 74.8% 1.10× 1.21
Dalian Yingbo (+0.5) 67.0% 68.7% 72.1% 0.95× 1.46
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (+0.5) 62.3% 62.9% 54.0% 1.17× 1.59
Dalian Yingbo (-0.5) 37.7% 37.1% 46.0% 0.80× 2.70
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (-0.5) 33.0% 31.3% 27.9% 1.12× 3.19
Dalian Yingbo (-1.5) 16.3% 17.4% 25.2% 0.69× 5.74
Dalian Yingbo (-2.5) 5.4% 7.9% 10.7% 0.74× 12.72
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger to concede 69.9% 72.4% 86.2% 0.84× 1.38
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger clean sheet 30.2% 27.6% 13.8% 2.00× 3.62
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger clean sheet in 1st half 59.7% 56.6% — — 1.77
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger to concede in 1st half 40.3% 43.4% — — 2.30
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger clean sheet in 2nd half 50.5% 54.4% — — 1.84
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger to concede in 2nd half 49.5% 45.6% — — 2.19
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger under 6.5 corners 90.9% 89.9% — — 1.11
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger under 5.5 corners 83.3% 81.4% — — 1.23
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger under 4.5 corners 71.4% 71.6% — — 1.40
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger over 2.5 corners 64.3% 61.7% — — 1.62
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger under 3.5 corners 55.1% 57.2% — — 1.75
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger over 3.5 corners 44.9% 42.8% — — 2.34
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger under 2.5 corners 35.7% 38.3% — — 2.61
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger over 4.5 corners 28.6% 28.4% — — 3.52
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger over 5.5 corners 16.7% 18.6% — — 5.38
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger over 6.5 corners 9.1% 10.1% — — 9.88
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger under 3.5 goals 97.4% 97.5% 93.0% 1.05× 1.03
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger under 2.5 goals 90.0% 92.3% 83.2% 1.11× 1.08
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger under 1.5 goals 69.8% 68.0% 61.0% 1.12× 1.47
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger over 0.5 goals 66.8% 68.0% 72.6% 0.94× 1.47
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger under 0.5 goals 33.2% 32.0% 27.4% 1.17× 3.13
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger over 1.5 goals 30.2% 32.0% 39.0% 0.82× 3.13
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger over 2.5 goals 10.0% 7.7% 16.8% 0.46× 13.05
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger over 3.5 goals 2.6% 2.5% 7.0% 0.36× 39.84
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger under 1.5 in 1st half 92.7% 93.9% — — 1.07
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger under 0.5 in 1st half 64.4% 63.3% — — 1.58
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger over 0.5 in 1st half 35.6% 36.7% — — 2.73
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger over 1.5 in 1st half 7.3% 6.1% — — 16.50
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger scores equally in both 43.6% 43.7% — — 2.29
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger scores more in 2nd half 35.4% 37.3% — — 2.68
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger scores more in 1st half 21.0% 21.8% — — 4.60
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo (away no bet) 56.3% 57.3% 63.6% 0.90× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 43.7% 42.7% 36.4% 1.17× 2.34
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger even goals 55.5% 56.9% 54.6% 1.04× 1.76
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger odd goals 44.5% 43.1% 45.4% 0.95× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 90.3% 91.2% — — 1.10
Both halves over 1.5 goals 9.7% 8.8% — — 11.35
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 54.3% 51.2% — — 1.95
Both halves under 1.5 goals 45.7% 48.8% — — 2.05
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 46.8% 46.1% — — 2.17
Dalian Yingbo to score 2+ in a row 27.1% 24.9% — — 4.01
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger to score 2+ in a row 23.7% 19.5% — — 5.12
Either team to score 3+ in a row 14.1% 12.2% — — 8.20
Dalian Yingbo to score 3+ in a row 7.9% 5.5% — — 18.14
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger to score 3+ in a row 6.3% 5.5% — — 18.27
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo corners (+3.5) 96.5% 95.7% — — 1.04
Dalian Yingbo corners (+2.5) 93.7% 89.6% — — 1.12
Dalian Yingbo corners (+1.5) 89.4% 84.5% — — 1.18
Dalian Yingbo corners (-1.5) 65.5% 65.9% — — 1.52
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger corners (+3.5) 55.8% 57.1% — — 1.75
Dalian Yingbo corners (-2.5) 54.9% 52.4% — — 1.91
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger corners (+2.5) 45.1% 47.6% — — 2.10
Dalian Yingbo corners (-3.5) 44.2% 42.9% — — 2.33
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger corners (+1.5) 34.5% 34.1% — — 2.93
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger corners (-1.5) 10.6% 15.5% — — 6.45
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger corners (-2.5) 6.3% 10.4% — — 9.60
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger corners (-3.5) 3.5% 4.3% — — 23.48
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 36.3% 34.0% — — 2.94
12+ corners 33.5% 33.2% — — 3.01
9-11 corners 30.3% 33.2% — — 3.01
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 74.7% 72.5% — — 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 73.8% 72.5% — — 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 66.5% 67.8% — — 1.48
Over 8.5 corners 63.7% 63.3% — — 1.58
Under 10.5 corners 57.1% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 9.5 corners 53.2% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 9.5 corners 46.8% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 10.5 corners 42.9% 42.1% — — 2.37
Under 8.5 corners 36.3% 36.7% — — 2.72
Over 11.5 corners 33.5% 32.2% — — 3.11
Under 7.5 corners 26.2% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 25.3% 27.5% — — 3.64
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 13.7% 11.5% 12.5% 0.92× 8.71
1-0 11.5% 11.5% 10.0% 1.15× 8.72
0-1 10.6% 11.5% 4.5% 2.53× 8.72
0-0 10.5% 11.5% 4.3% 2.66× 8.72
1-2 7.3% 7.4% 7.5% 0.99× 13.51
2-0 7.2% 7.4% 7.3% 1.02× 13.51
2-1 7.9% 7.4% 7.5% 0.99× 13.51
0-2 6.1% 7.4% 2.9% 2.51× 13.51
0-3 2.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.08× 58.31
0-4 0.6% 1.7% 1.1% 1.51× 58.32
1-3 2.7% 1.7% 3.2% 0.54× 58.30
1-4 0.7% 1.7% 1.1% 1.51× 58.32
2-2 4.4% 1.7% 7.5% 0.23× 58.29
2-3 1.6% 1.7% 3.2% 0.54× 58.31
2-4 0.4% 1.7% 1.4% 1.26× 58.32
3-0 2.9% 1.7% 3.4% 0.50× 58.30
3-1 3.2% 1.7% 6.1% 0.28× 58.30
3-2 1.7% 1.7% 3.6% 0.47× 58.31
3-3 0.6% 1.7% 2.0% 0.84× 58.32
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.08× 58.32
4-0 0.9% 1.7% 2.7% 0.63× 58.31
4-1 1.0% 1.7% 2.5% 0.69× 58.31
4-2 0.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.08× 58.32
4-3 0.2% 1.7% 0.7% 2.52× 58.32
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.9% 1.89× 58.32
Any other score 1.3% 1.7% 4.8% 0.36× 58.31
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo (2nd half DNB) 51.1% 54.4% — — 1.84
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (2nd half DNB) 48.9% 45.6% — — 2.19
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo leading at HT (DNB) 54.9% 56.4% — — 1.77
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger leading at HT (DNB) 45.1% 43.6% — — 2.29
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo or Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (12) 70.7% 72.1% 73.7% 0.98× 1.39
Dalian Yingbo or draw (1X) 67.0% 69.6% 72.1% 0.97× 1.44
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger or draw (X2) 62.3% 63.7% 54.0% 1.18× 1.57
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo or draw at HT 76.5% 79.6% — — 1.26
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger or draw at HT 71.4% 74.4% — — 1.34
Dalian Yingbo or Tianjin Jinmen Tiger at HT 52.2% 48.5% — — 2.06
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo or draw (1UP) 67.0% 76.4% — — 1.31
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger or draw (1UP) 62.3% 71.6% — — 1.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo or draw in 2nd half 70.5% 73.9% — — 1.35
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger or draw in 2nd half 69.1% 66.0% — — 1.51
Dalian Yingbo or Tianjin Jinmen Tiger in 2nd half 60.4% 63.5% — — 1.58
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 68.0% 68.3% — — 1.46
Neither half drawn 32.0% 31.7% — — 3.15
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo (DNB) 53.4% 50.9% 62.3% 0.82× 1.96
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (DNB) 46.6% 49.1% 37.7% 1.30× 2.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo to score first 46.6% 45.8% — — 2.18
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger to score first 42.9% 41.7% — — 2.40
No goal scored 10.5% 9.3% — — 10.70
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 52.9% 51.3% 37.0% 1.39× 1.95
Both teams to score 47.1% 48.7% 63.0% 0.77× 2.05
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 45.9% 44.3% 28.1% 1.58× 2.26
Both score & over 2.5 33.4% 34.6% 50.8% 0.68× 2.89
Both score & under 2.5 13.7% 12.4% 12.5% 0.99× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 7.0% 8.3% 9.1% 0.91× 12.07
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 89.8% 85.6% 78.5% 1.09× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 10.2% 14.4% 21.5% 0.67× 6.96
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 75.9% 75.0% — — 1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half 24.1% 25.0% — — 3.99
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 64.9% 66.1% — — 1.51
Both score 2nd half only 20.7% 21.2% — — 4.72
Both score 1st half only 11.0% 10.7% — — 9.34
Both score in both halves 3.4% 4.9% — — 20.46
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 85.6% 84.7% — — 1.18
Both teams to score by HT 14.4% 15.3% — — 6.52
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 54.2% 52.7% — — 1.90
A goal in each half 45.8% 47.3% — — 2.11
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.3% 47.2% 41.3% 1.14× 2.12
0-1 goals 32.6% 30.7% 18.4% 1.67× 3.25
4-6 goals 19.1% 20.2% 36.7% 0.55× 4.94
7+ goals 0.9% 1.8% 4.1% 0.45× 54.47
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger to score exactly 1 36.6% 35.9% 33.8% 1.06× 2.78
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger to score exactly 0 33.2% 33.8% 27.4% 1.23× 2.96
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger to score exactly 2 20.2% 22.3% 22.4% 0.99× 4.49
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger to score 3+ 10.0% 8.6% 16.8% 0.51× 11.68
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo to score exactly 1 36.2% 35.5% 34.5% 1.03× 2.81
Dalian Yingbo to score exactly 0 30.2% 32.6% 13.8% 2.35× 3.07
Dalian Yingbo to score exactly 2 21.7% 23.3% 26.1% 0.89× 4.29
Dalian Yingbo to score 3+ 12.0% 14.3% 26.1% 0.55× 7.00
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 47.8% 51.5% — — 1.94
Dalian Yingbo leading at HT 28.6% 25.6% — — 3.91
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger leading at HT 23.5% 20.4% — — 4.89
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo -1: 2 62.3% 62.5% — — 1.60
Dalian Yingbo -1: X 21.4% 23.5% — — 4.25
Dalian Yingbo -1: 1 16.3% 17.5% — — 5.72
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (0:1) 62.3% 61.5% 54.0% 1.14× 1.63
Draw (0:1) 21.4% 24.2% 21.1% 1.15× 4.13
Dalian Yingbo (0:1) 16.3% 17.8% 25.2% 0.71× 5.62
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (0:2) 83.7% 83.0% 74.8% 1.11× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 10.9% 11.0% 14.7% 0.75× 9.11
Dalian Yingbo (0:2) 5.4% 7.6% 10.7% 0.72× 13.07
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (0:3) 94.6% 92.7% 89.3% 1.04× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 4.0% 2.4% 5.9% 0.40× 41.97
Dalian Yingbo (0:3) 1.4% 2.4% 5.0% 0.48× 42.08
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (0:4) 98.6% 98.1% 95.0% 1.03× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.1% 1.2% 3.9% 0.32× 81.85
Dalian Yingbo (0:4) 0.3% 1.2% 1.4% 0.90× 81.93
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo (1:0) 67.0% 70.2% 72.1% 0.97× 1.43
Draw (1:0) 19.6% 17.1% 16.3% 1.05× 5.84
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (1:0) 13.3% 12.7% 11.8% 1.08× 7.87
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo (2:0) 86.7% 88.5% 88.2% 1.00× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 9.2% 6.4% 7.0% 0.91× 15.64
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (2:0) 4.1% 2.3% 5.0% 0.46× 43.67
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 45.3% 48.5% — — 2.06
Halves equal 28.4% 26.2% — — 3.81
1st half highest scoring 26.3% 26.2% — — 3.81
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo to concede 66.8% 66.7% 72.6% 0.92× 1.50
Dalian Yingbo clean sheet 33.2% 33.3% 27.4% 1.21× 3.00
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo clean sheet in 1st half 64.4% 63.3% — — 1.58
Dalian Yingbo to concede in 1st half 35.6% 36.7% — — 2.72
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo clean sheet in 2nd half 51.6% 52.5% — — 1.91
Dalian Yingbo to concede in 2nd half 48.4% 47.5% — — 2.10
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo over 2.5 corners 92.1% 89.2% — — 1.12
Dalian Yingbo over 3.5 corners 83.7% 81.0% — — 1.24
Dalian Yingbo over 4.5 corners 72.5% 71.9% — — 1.39
Dalian Yingbo over 5.5 corners 59.9% 57.5% — — 1.74
Dalian Yingbo under 6.5 corners 52.9% 52.6% — — 1.90
Dalian Yingbo over 6.5 corners 47.1% 47.4% — — 2.11
Dalian Yingbo under 5.5 corners 40.1% 42.5% — — 2.35
Dalian Yingbo under 4.5 corners 27.5% 28.1% — — 3.56
Dalian Yingbo under 3.5 corners 16.3% 19.0% — — 5.26
Dalian Yingbo under 2.5 corners 7.9% 10.8% — — 9.28
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo under 3.5 goals 96.6% 96.4% 89.6% 1.08× 1.04
Dalian Yingbo under 2.5 goals 88.0% 87.3% 73.9% 1.18× 1.15
Dalian Yingbo over 0.5 goals 69.9% 68.0% 86.2% 0.79× 1.47
Dalian Yingbo under 1.5 goals 66.3% 67.9% 48.1% 1.41× 1.47
Dalian Yingbo over 1.5 goals 33.7% 32.1% 51.9% 0.62× 3.12
Dalian Yingbo under 0.5 goals 30.2% 32.0% 13.8% 2.32× 3.12
Dalian Yingbo over 2.5 goals 12.0% 12.7% 26.1% 0.49× 7.86
Dalian Yingbo over 3.5 goals 3.4% 3.6% 10.4% 0.35× 27.54
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo under 1.5 in 1st half 90.5% 94.6% — — 1.06
Dalian Yingbo under 0.5 in 1st half 59.7% 56.4% — — 1.77
Dalian Yingbo over 0.5 in 1st half 40.3% 43.6% — — 2.29
Dalian Yingbo over 1.5 in 1st half 9.5% 5.4% — — 18.53
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo scores equally in both 41.7% 41.7% — — 2.40
Dalian Yingbo scores more in 2nd half 34.4% 33.3% — — 3.01
Dalian Yingbo scores more in 1st half 23.8% 21.0% — — 4.76
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (home no bet) 52.9% 51.4% 51.5% 1.00× 1.94
Draw (home no bet) 47.1% 48.6% 48.5% 1.00× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo even goals 54.5% 50.8% 48.1% 1.06× 1.97
Dalian Yingbo odd goals 45.5% 49.2% 51.9% 0.95× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 38.5% 38.8% — — 2.58
HT 1-0 19.7% 18.6% — — 5.38
HT 0-1 16.9% 18.6% — — 5.39
HT 1-1 8.8% 6.9% — — 14.52
HT 2-0 5.1% 6.9% — — 14.58
HT 0-2 3.7% 2.4% — — 42.18
Any other HT score 2.6% 2.4% — — 42.25
HT 2-1 2.3% 2.4% — — 42.27
HT 1-2 1.9% 2.4% — — 42.29
HT 2-2 0.5% 2.4% — — 42.39
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo at HT / Dalian Yingbo at FT 21.5% 21.6% — — 4.63
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 19.4% 16.8% — — 5.96
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger at HT / Tianjin Jinmen Tiger at FT 17.2% 16.8% — — 5.96
Draw at HT / Dalian Yingbo at FT 14.5% 12.7% — — 7.88
Draw at HT / Tianjin Jinmen Tiger at FT 13.9% 12.7% — — 7.89
Dalian Yingbo at HT / Draw at FT 5.3% 6.0% — — 16.54
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger at HT / Draw at FT 4.6% 3.5% — — 28.87
Dalian Yingbo at HT / Tianjin Jinmen Tiger at FT 1.9% 3.5% — — 28.97
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger at HT / Dalian Yingbo at FT 1.8% 3.5% — — 28.97
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo to score last 46.6% 46.3% — — 2.16
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger to score last 42.9% 40.0% — — 2.50
No goal scored 10.5% 8.7% — — 11.44
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 89.5% 91.7% — — 1.09
Dalian Yingbo to lead by 1 at any time 52.5% 50.6% — — 1.98
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger to lead by 1 at any time 48.2% 44.3% — — 2.26
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 38.9% 34.9% — — 2.87
Dalian Yingbo to lead by 2 at any time 21.2% 19.5% — — 5.13
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger to lead by 2 at any time 17.9% 14.8% — — 6.74
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 11.9% 10.6% — — 9.45
Dalian Yingbo to lead by 3 at any time 6.7% 6.6% — — 15.07
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger to lead by 3 at any time 5.2% 6.6% — — 15.14
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo most corners 75.1% 74.1% — — 1.35
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger most corners 16.8% 19.2% — — 5.20
Corners level 8.1% 8.3% — — 11.99
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.5% 87.4% 84.8% 1.03× 1.14
1-4 goals 81.1% 83.4% 74.8% 1.11× 1.20
1-3 goals 69.4% 68.8% 55.3% 1.24× 1.45
2-6 goals 66.5% 68.8% 77.8% 0.88× 1.45
2-5 goals 64.4% 63.3% 70.7% 0.90× 1.58
2-4 goals 59.0% 59.1% 60.8% 0.97× 1.69
1-2 goals 49.1% 48.4% 36.3% 1.34× 2.06
2-3 goals 47.3% 48.4% 41.3% 1.17× 2.06
3-6 goals 39.5% 39.2% 55.8% 0.70× 2.55
3-5 goals 37.4% 39.2% 48.8% 0.80× 2.55
3-4 goals 32.0% 35.2% 38.8% 0.91× 2.84
4-6 goals 19.1% 18.8% 36.7% 0.51× 5.31
4-5 goals 17.1% 18.8% 29.7% 0.63× 5.31
5-6 goals 7.4% 8.9% 17.2% 0.52× 11.26
7+ goals 0.9% 2.5% 4.1% 0.62× 39.23
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dalian Yingbo never behind 41.3% 48.7% — — 2.06
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger never behind 37.0% 44.2% — — 2.26
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.5% 50.9% 46.3% 1.10× 1.97
Even number of goals 51.5% 49.1% 53.7% 0.91× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 57.6% 57.8% — — 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 42.4% 42.2% — — 2.37
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 53.7% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 46.3% 48.0% — — 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 97.0% 95.4% 88.9% 1.07× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 91.6% 92.3% 78.9% 1.17× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 89.5% 87.6% 95.7% 0.92× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 79.9% 77.3% 59.4% 1.30× 1.29
Over 1.5 goals 67.4% 66.3% 81.6% 0.81× 1.51
Under 2.5 goals 59.6% 58.7% 40.4% 1.45× 1.71
Over 2.5 goals 40.4% 41.3% 59.6% 0.69× 2.42
Under 1.5 goals 32.6% 33.7% 18.4% 1.83× 2.97
Over 3.5 goals 20.1% 22.7% 40.6% 0.56× 4.41
Under 0.5 goals 10.5% 12.4% 4.3% 2.88× 8.07
Over 4.5 goals 8.4% 7.7% 21.1% 0.37× 12.93
Over 5.5 goals 3.0% 4.6% 11.1% 0.41× 21.83
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.0% 97.2% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 96.8% 97.2% 87.7% 1.11× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 90.5% 92.4% 73.8% 1.25× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 74.8% 72.4% 49.9% 1.45× 1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 55.4% 55.8% 76.5% 0.73× 1.79
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 44.6% 44.2% 23.5% 1.88× 2.26
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 25.2% 27.6% 50.1% 0.55× 3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 9.5% 7.6% 26.2% 0.29× 13.17
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 3.2% 2.8% 12.3% 0.23× 35.60
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.0% 2.8% 4.4% 0.64× 35.67
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 92.8% 92.8% — — 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 75.1% 78.0% — — 1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half 61.5% 63.1% — — 1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half 38.5% 36.9% — — 2.71
Over 1.5 in 1st half 24.9% 22.0% — — 4.54
Over 2.5 in 1st half 7.2% 7.2% — — 13.94
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 84.7% 83.0% — — 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 73.8% 77.8% — — 1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 60.9% 61.4% — — 1.63
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 39.1% 38.6% — — 2.59
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 26.2% 22.2% — — 4.50
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 15.3% 17.0% — — 5.88
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger not to score in both halves 82.8% 84.3% — — 1.19
Dalian Yingbo not to score in both halves 80.1% 84.2% — — 1.19
Dalian Yingbo to score in both halves 19.9% 15.8% — — 6.33
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger to score in both halves 17.2% 15.7% — — 6.38
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 47.1% 50.7% 63.0% 0.80× 1.97
Only Dalian Yingbo scores 22.7% 22.3% 23.4% 0.95× 4.49
Only Tianjin Jinmen Tiger scores 19.6% 16.1% 9.8% 1.65× 6.23
Neither team scores 10.5% 11.0% 4.3% 2.56× 9.07
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 27.0% 24.9% 22.2% 1.12× 4.02
Exactly 1 goals 22.1% 22.6% 14.3% 1.58× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 20.3% 22.6% 19.3% 1.17× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 11.7% 12.1% 19.7% 0.61× 8.26
Exactly 0 goals 10.5% 12.1% 4.3% 2.81× 8.26
Exactly 5 goals 5.4% 7.6% 10.2% 0.75× 13.15
6 or more goals 3.0% 4.5% 11.1% 0.40× 22.35
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 1st half 38.5% 37.3% — — 2.68
1 goal in 1st half 36.6% 37.3% — — 2.68
2 goals in 1st half 17.7% 15.7% — — 6.38
3+ goals in 1st half 7.2% 7.2% — — 13.94
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 39.1% 40.1% — — 2.50
1 goal in 2nd half 34.7% 33.9% — — 2.95
No goals in 2nd half 26.2% 29.1% — — 3.44
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger not to win both halves 93.0% 94.2% — — 1.06
Dalian Yingbo not to win both halves 91.1% 94.1% — — 1.06
Dalian Yingbo to win both halves 8.9% 5.9% — — 17.01
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger to win both halves 7.0% 5.8% — — 17.15
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger to win neither half 53.9% 54.4% — — 1.84
Dalian Yingbo to win either half 50.6% 54.3% — — 1.84
Dalian Yingbo to win neither half 49.4% 45.7% — — 2.19
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger to win either half 46.1% 45.6% — — 2.19
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger not to win to nil 80.4% 83.1% 90.2% 0.92× 1.20
Dalian Yingbo not to win to nil 77.3% 78.1% 76.6% 1.02× 1.28
Dalian Yingbo to win to nil 22.7% 21.9% 23.4% 0.94× 4.57
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger to win to nil 19.6% 16.9% 9.8% 1.74× 5.91
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 29.3% 27.9% 26.3% 1.06× 3.59
Dalian Yingbo by 1 21.4% 24.1% 21.1% 1.14× 4.15
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger by 1 19.6% 17.1% 16.3% 1.04× 5.86
Dalian Yingbo by 2 10.9% 11.8% 14.7% 0.80× 8.51
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger by 2 9.2% 7.2% 7.0% 1.02× 13.90
Dalian Yingbo by 3+ 5.4% 7.2% 10.7% 0.67× 13.92
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger by 3+ 4.1% 2.7% 5.0% 0.54× 36.84
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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