De Graafschap v MVV Maastricht — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 20 November 2026 · NED-Eerste Divisie · 2627

NED-Eerste Divisie results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

De Graafschap

19:00 UTC

MVV Maastricht

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 656h before kick-off

De Graafschap win

55.6%

model 55.4%

Draw

22.2%

model 21.4%

MVV Maastricht win

22.2%

model 23.2%

562222

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (346 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 9.8%
2-1 9.8%
1-0 9.0%
2-0 8.4%
3-1 6.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	59.9%	Under 2.5	40.1%
BTTS yes	58.6%	BTTS no	41.4%
De Graafschap 1+	85.5%	De Graafschap 2+	57.4%
MVV Maastricht 1+	69.0%	MVV Maastricht 2+	32.7%

Expected goals 1.93 – 1.17. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

59/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

De Graafschap (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 45%

57.0% fair odds 1.76

strong signal · 1154 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

De Graafschap not to win both halves

Win both halves

83.2% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 588 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

De Graafschap carry the stronger rating, 1486 Elo against 1390.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

De Graafschap have an estimated 55.6% win probability, against 22.2% for MVV Maastricht and 22.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.93 for De Graafschap and 1.17 for MVV Maastricht.

Why De Graafschap

De Graafschap carry the stronger rating, 1486 Elo against 1390.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.2%. Draws run at 22% in this competition.

Why MVV Maastricht can win

Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for De Graafschap, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for MVV Maastricht, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

De Graafschap: 52% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 17.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. MVV Maastricht: 53% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

De Graafschap are the model's most likely outcome at 55.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 9.8%. Confidence 59/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	552123	1.93–1.17	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	572122	1.94–1.10	2-1 10%	58%	57%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap to win	57.2%	53.9%	44.5%	1.21×	1.85
MVV Maastricht to win	21.5%	24.5%	33.5%	0.73×	4.09
Draw	21.3%	24.5%	22.1%	1.11×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap & not both score	28.9%	25.2%	22.6%	1.11×	3.97
De Graafschap & both teams score	28.3%	25.2%	22.0%	1.14×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	16.8%	18.0%	17.4%	1.03×	5.57
MVV Maastricht & both teams score	11.6%	13.3%	19.7%	0.67×	7.54
MVV Maastricht & not both score	10.0%	8.3%	14.0%	0.60×	12.00
Draw & not both score	4.5%	4.9%	4.8%	1.02×	20.53

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap & over 1.5	47.6%	45.1%	37.0%	1.22×	2.22
De Graafschap & over 2.5	38.6%	34.9%	30.8%	1.13×	2.87
De Graafschap & under 3.5	34.4%	30.8%	25.7%	1.20×	3.25
De Graafschap & over 3.5	22.8%	21.6%	18.9%	1.14×	4.63
De Graafschap & under 2.5	18.7%	18.0%	13.8%	1.31×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	16.8%	18.0%	17.4%	1.03×	5.56
MVV Maastricht & over 1.5	15.9%	18.0%	27.4%	0.66×	5.56
MVV Maastricht & under 3.5	15.2%	18.0%	19.8%	0.91×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	14.3%	12.8%	14.1%	0.91×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	14.3%	12.8%	14.1%	0.91×	7.79
MVV Maastricht & over 2.5	13.0%	12.8%	23.7%	0.54×	7.79
De Graafschap & under 1.5	9.7%	7.9%	7.6%	1.04×	12.63
MVV Maastricht & under 2.5	8.5%	7.9%	10.0%	0.80×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.9%	7.9%	8.1%	0.98×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.9%	7.9%	8.1%	0.98×	12.63
MVV Maastricht & over 3.5	6.3%	7.9%	13.9%	0.57×	12.63
MVV Maastricht & under 1.5	5.6%	7.9%	6.3%	1.26×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	4.5%	4.8%	4.8%	1.00×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap (1UP)	71.0%	75.0%	—	—	1.33
MVV Maastricht (1UP)	40.3%	38.5%	—	—	2.60

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap (2UP)	57.2%	54.8%	—	—	1.83
MVV Maastricht (2UP)	21.5%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap to win 2nd half	46.2%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
2nd half drawn	31.9%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
MVV Maastricht to win 2nd half	21.9%	24.1%	—	—	4.15

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht under 1.5 in 2nd half	85.8%	86.7%	—	—	1.15
MVV Maastricht under 0.5 in 2nd half	51.7%	52.7%	—	—	1.90
MVV Maastricht over 0.5 in 2nd half	48.3%	47.3%	—	—	2.11
MVV Maastricht over 1.5 in 2nd half	14.2%	13.3%	—	—	7.53

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap under 1.5 in 2nd half	69.8%	70.9%	—	—	1.41
De Graafschap over 0.5 in 2nd half	66.8%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
De Graafschap under 0.5 in 2nd half	33.2%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
De Graafschap over 1.5 in 2nd half	30.2%	29.1%	—	—	3.44

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht (+2.5)	83.9%	82.6%	88.2%	0.94×	1.21
De Graafschap (+0.5)	78.5%	78.5%	66.5%	1.18×	1.27
MVV Maastricht (+1.5)	66.5%	68.7%	75.6%	0.91×	1.46
De Graafschap (-0.5)	57.2%	57.0%	44.5%	1.28×	1.75
MVV Maastricht (+0.5)	42.8%	43.0%	55.5%	0.77×	2.33
De Graafschap (-1.5)	33.5%	31.3%	24.4%	1.28×	3.19
MVV Maastricht (-0.5)	21.5%	21.5%	33.5%	0.64×	4.65
De Graafschap (-2.5)	16.1%	17.4%	11.8%	1.48×	5.74

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht to concede	85.6%	86.2%	81.3%	1.06×	1.16
MVV Maastricht clean sheet	14.4%	13.8%	18.7%	0.74×	7.26

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht to concede in 1st half	56.5%	57.0%	—	—	1.76
MVV Maastricht clean sheet in 1st half	43.5%	43.0%	—	—	2.33

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht to concede in 2nd half	66.8%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
MVV Maastricht clean sheet in 2nd half	33.2%	34.2%	—	—	2.92

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht under 6.5 corners	86.1%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
MVV Maastricht under 5.5 corners	76.3%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
MVV Maastricht over 2.5 corners	72.6%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
MVV Maastricht under 4.5 corners	62.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
MVV Maastricht over 3.5 corners	54.5%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
MVV Maastricht under 3.5 corners	45.5%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
MVV Maastricht over 4.5 corners	37.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
MVV Maastricht under 2.5 corners	27.4%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
MVV Maastricht over 5.5 corners	23.7%	24.0%	—	—	4.18
MVV Maastricht over 6.5 corners	13.9%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht under 3.5 goals	97.4%	97.5%	93.0%	1.05×	1.03
MVV Maastricht under 2.5 goals	90.1%	92.3%	81.5%	1.13×	1.08
MVV Maastricht under 1.5 goals	70.0%	68.0%	58.0%	1.17×	1.47
MVV Maastricht over 0.5 goals	66.6%	68.0%	72.7%	0.94×	1.47
MVV Maastricht under 0.5 goals	33.4%	32.0%	27.3%	1.17×	3.13
MVV Maastricht over 1.5 goals	30.0%	32.0%	42.0%	0.76×	3.13
MVV Maastricht over 2.5 goals	9.9%	7.7%	18.6%	0.41×	13.04
MVV Maastricht over 3.5 goals	2.6%	2.5%	7.0%	0.36×	39.93

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht under 1.5 in 1st half	92.8%	93.8%	—	—	1.07
MVV Maastricht under 0.5 in 1st half	64.5%	63.5%	—	—	1.58
MVV Maastricht over 0.5 in 1st half	35.5%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
MVV Maastricht over 1.5 in 1st half	7.2%	6.2%	—	—	16.15

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht scores equally in both	43.7%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
MVV Maastricht scores more in 2nd half	35.3%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
MVV Maastricht scores more in 1st half	21.0%	21.8%	—	—	4.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap (away no bet)	72.9%	68.4%	66.8%	1.02×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	27.1%	31.6%	33.2%	0.95×	3.17

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht even goals	55.6%	56.9%	57.0%	1.00×	1.76
MVV Maastricht odd goals	44.4%	43.1%	43.0%	1.00×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	80.9%	82.7%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	19.1%	17.3%	—	—	5.79

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	69.6%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	30.4%	31.5%	—	—	3.18

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	62.7%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
De Graafschap to score 2+ in a row	49.2%	46.2%	—	—	2.16
Either team to score 3+ in a row	26.0%	25.0%	—	—	4.00
De Graafschap to score 3+ in a row	21.5%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
MVV Maastricht to score 2+ in a row	20.7%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
MVV Maastricht to score 3+ in a row	4.9%	2.6%	—	—	37.90

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap corners (+3.5)	95.8%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
De Graafschap corners (+2.5)	92.8%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
De Graafschap corners (+1.5)	88.3%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
De Graafschap corners (-1.5)	65.1%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
MVV Maastricht corners (+3.5)	55.2%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
De Graafschap corners (-2.5)	55.0%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
De Graafschap corners (-3.5)	44.8%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
MVV Maastricht corners (+2.5)	45.0%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
MVV Maastricht corners (+1.5)	34.9%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
MVV Maastricht corners (-1.5)	11.7%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
MVV Maastricht corners (-2.5)	7.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
MVV Maastricht corners (-3.5)	4.2%	4.3%	—	—	23.44

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	43.8%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	29.6%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
0-8 corners	26.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	81.8%	80.6%	—	—	1.24
Over 8.5 corners	73.3%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	65.4%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Over 9.5 corners	63.8%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 11.5 corners	56.2%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 10.5 corners	53.7%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 10.5 corners	46.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 11.5 corners	43.8%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 9.5 corners	36.2%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 12.5 corners	34.6%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 8.5 corners	26.7%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	18.2%	19.4%	—	—	5.17

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	9.7%	7.4%	7.6%	0.97×	13.51
1-1	9.9%	7.4%	9.5%	0.78×	13.51
2-0	9.0%	7.4%	6.3%	1.18×	13.51
2-1	9.9%	7.4%	8.1%	0.91×	13.51
0-1	5.6%	7.4%	6.3%	1.18×	13.51
1-2	5.6%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.51
2-2	5.4%	7.4%	6.6%	1.12×	13.51
3-0	5.8%	7.4%	4.1%	1.83×	13.51
3-1	6.4%	7.4%	4.9%	1.51×	13.51
Any other score	5.2%	7.4%	4.7%	1.59×	13.51
0-0	4.5%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.29
0-2	2.9%	1.7%	3.8%	0.45×	58.30
0-3	1.1%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.31
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	58.32
1-3	2.1%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	58.31
1-4	0.6%	1.7%	2.2%	0.78×	58.32
2-3	2.0%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.31
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.32
3-2	3.5%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.30
3-3	1.3%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	58.31
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.2%	1.40×	58.32
4-0	2.8%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.30
4-1	3.1%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	58.30
4-2	1.7%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
4-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.5%	3.49×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.1%	13.96×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap (2nd half DNB)	67.8%	66.8%	—	—	1.50
MVV Maastricht (2nd half DNB)	32.2%	33.2%	—	—	3.01

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap leading at HT (DNB)	69.9%	74.5%	—	—	1.34
MVV Maastricht leading at HT (DNB)	30.1%	25.5%	—	—	3.93

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap or MVV Maastricht (12)	78.7%	75.5%	77.9%	0.97×	1.32
De Graafschap or draw (1X)	78.5%	75.5%	66.5%	1.14×	1.32
MVV Maastricht or draw (X2)	42.8%	46.1%	55.5%	0.83×	2.17

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap or draw at HT	81.7%	83.9%	—	—	1.19
De Graafschap or MVV Maastricht at HT	60.9%	60.9%	—	—	1.64
MVV Maastricht or draw at HT	57.4%	57.7%	—	—	1.73

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap or draw (1UP)	78.5%	83.8%	—	—	1.19
MVV Maastricht or draw (1UP)	42.8%	52.7%	—	—	1.90

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap or draw in 2nd half	78.1%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
De Graafschap or MVV Maastricht in 2nd half	68.1%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
MVV Maastricht or draw in 2nd half	53.8%	54.5%	—	—	1.83

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	58.9%	58.8%	—	—	1.70
Neither half drawn	41.1%	41.2%	—	—	2.43

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap (DNB)	72.7%	71.4%	57.0%	1.25×	1.40
MVV Maastricht (DNB)	27.3%	28.6%	43.0%	0.67×	3.50

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap to score first	61.0%	63.9%	—	—	1.57
MVV Maastricht to score first	34.6%	27.9%	—	—	3.58
No goal scored	4.5%	4.4%	—	—	22.98

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	56.7%	55.0%	58.8%	0.94×	1.82
Not both teams to score	43.3%	45.0%	41.2%	1.09×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	46.8%	44.4%	49.5%	0.90×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	31.7%	34.5%	28.3%	1.22×	2.90
Not both score & over 2.5	11.6%	12.4%	13.0%	0.95×	8.09
Both score & under 2.5	9.9%	8.3%	9.5%	0.88×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	82.7%	82.6%	79.0%	1.05×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	17.3%	17.4%	21.0%	0.83×	5.75

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	67.9%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half	32.1%	32.9%	—	—	3.04

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	54.3%	54.6%	—	—	1.83
Both score 2nd half only	25.7%	27.2%	—	—	3.68
Both score 1st half only	13.6%	10.8%	—	—	9.26
Both score in both halves	6.5%	6.8%	—	—	14.71

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.0%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	20.0%	18.7%	—	—	5.34

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	59.5%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
A half without a goal	40.5%	42.9%	—	—	2.33

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.2%	42.2%	41.0%	1.03×	2.37
4-6 goals	32.5%	30.7%	37.6%	0.82×	3.25
0-1 goals	19.7%	20.2%	18.4%	1.10×	4.94
7+ goals	3.5%	1.8%	3.2%	0.58×	54.18

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht to score exactly 1	36.6%	35.9%	30.8%	1.17×	2.78
MVV Maastricht to score exactly 0	33.4%	33.8%	27.3%	1.24×	2.96
MVV Maastricht to score exactly 2	20.1%	22.3%	23.6%	0.94×	4.49
MVV Maastricht to score 3+	9.9%	8.6%	18.6%	0.46×	11.67

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap to score 3+	30.6%	32.6%	25.6%	1.27×	3.07
De Graafschap to score exactly 1	27.9%	26.6%	30.2%	0.88×	3.77
De Graafschap to score exactly 2	27.0%	26.5%	25.8%	1.03×	3.77
De Graafschap to score exactly 0	14.4%	14.3%	18.7%	0.77×	6.98

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap leading at HT	42.6%	42.3%	—	—	2.36
Draw at HT	39.1%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
MVV Maastricht leading at HT	18.3%	16.1%	—	—	6.22

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap -1: 2	42.8%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
De Graafschap -1: 1	33.5%	30.1%	—	—	3.33
De Graafschap -1: X	23.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht (0:1)	42.8%	42.7%	55.5%	0.77×	2.34
De Graafschap (0:1)	33.5%	30.1%	24.4%	1.23×	3.32
Draw (0:1)	23.8%	24.2%	20.1%	1.20×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht (0:2)	66.5%	72.2%	75.6%	0.96×	1.39
Draw (0:2)	17.4%	15.3%	12.8%	1.19×	6.55
De Graafschap (0:2)	16.1%	15.3%	11.8%	1.29×	6.56

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht (0:3)	83.9%	85.4%	88.2%	0.97×	1.17
Draw (0:3)	9.7%	5.8%	5.7%	1.03×	17.19
De Graafschap (0:3)	6.4%	5.8%	6.3%	0.93×	17.24

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht (0:4)	93.6%	94.6%	93.7%	1.01×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	4.3%	1.2%	4.3%	0.28×	81.70
De Graafschap (0:4)	2.2%	1.2%	2.1%	0.58×	81.93

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap (1:0)	78.5%	78.6%	66.5%	1.18×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	13.6%	12.7%	18.2%	0.70×	7.87
MVV Maastricht (1:0)	7.9%	6.9%	15.5%	0.45×	14.47

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap (2:0)	92.1%	94.0%	84.5%	1.11×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	5.6%	6.4%	8.8%	0.72×	15.69
MVV Maastricht (2:0)	2.3%	2.3%	6.8%	0.34×	43.74

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	49.2%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	27.9%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	22.9%	24.4%	—	—	4.10

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap to concede	66.6%	66.7%	72.7%	0.92×	1.50
De Graafschap clean sheet	33.4%	33.3%	27.3%	1.22×	3.00

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap clean sheet in 1st half	64.5%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
De Graafschap to concede in 1st half	35.5%	36.6%	—	—	2.73

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap clean sheet in 2nd half	51.7%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
De Graafschap to concede in 2nd half	48.3%	47.2%	—	—	2.12

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap over 2.5 corners	94.4%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
De Graafschap over 3.5 corners	87.6%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
De Graafschap over 4.5 corners	78.0%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
De Graafschap over 5.5 corners	66.3%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
De Graafschap over 6.5 corners	53.9%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
De Graafschap under 6.5 corners	46.1%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
De Graafschap under 5.5 corners	33.7%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
De Graafschap under 4.5 corners	22.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
De Graafschap under 3.5 corners	12.4%	13.8%	—	—	7.27
De Graafschap under 2.5 corners	5.6%	10.7%	—	—	9.31

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap under 3.5 goals	86.8%	87.3%	89.9%	0.97×	1.15
De Graafschap over 0.5 goals	85.6%	87.2%	81.3%	1.07×	1.15
De Graafschap under 2.5 goals	69.4%	68.0%	74.4%	0.91×	1.47
De Graafschap over 1.5 goals	57.7%	58.6%	51.2%	1.14×	1.71
De Graafschap under 1.5 goals	42.3%	41.4%	48.8%	0.85×	2.42
De Graafschap over 2.5 goals	30.6%	32.0%	25.6%	1.25×	3.12
De Graafschap under 0.5 goals	14.4%	12.8%	18.7%	0.68×	7.84
De Graafschap over 3.5 goals	13.2%	12.7%	10.1%	1.27×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap under 1.5 in 1st half	79.7%	77.3%	—	—	1.29
De Graafschap over 0.5 in 1st half	56.5%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
De Graafschap under 0.5 in 1st half	43.5%	43.2%	—	—	2.32
De Graafschap over 1.5 in 1st half	20.3%	22.7%	—	—	4.40

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap scores more in 2nd half	41.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
De Graafschap scores equally in both	31.1%	33.1%	—	—	3.02
De Graafschap scores more in 1st half	27.3%	27.8%	—	—	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht (home no bet)	50.3%	51.4%	60.3%	0.85×	1.95
Draw (home no bet)	49.7%	48.6%	39.7%	1.22×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap even goals	51.0%	50.7%	51.7%	0.98×	1.97
De Graafschap odd goals	49.0%	49.3%	48.3%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	28.0%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
HT 1-0	23.4%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 0-1	12.4%	11.0%	—	—	9.11
HT 1-1	10.2%	11.0%	—	—	9.13
HT 2-0	9.7%	6.9%	—	—	14.43
Any other HT score	6.2%	6.9%	—	—	14.48
HT 2-1	4.3%	2.4%	—	—	41.93
HT 0-2	2.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.03
HT 1-2	2.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.06
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.15

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap at HT / De Graafschap at FT	35.9%	40.8%	—	—	2.45
Draw at HT / De Graafschap at FT	18.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.1%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
MVV Maastricht at HT / MVV Maastricht at FT	11.0%	12.6%	—	—	7.92
Draw at HT / MVV Maastricht at FT	8.8%	6.1%	—	—	16.40
De Graafschap at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.79
MVV Maastricht at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.81
MVV Maastricht at HT / De Graafschap at FT	3.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.86
De Graafschap at HT / MVV Maastricht at FT	1.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.91

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap to score last	60.9%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
MVV Maastricht to score last	34.6%	32.6%	—	—	3.07
No goal scored	4.5%	4.4%	—	—	22.98

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.5%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
De Graafschap to lead by 1 at any time	71.0%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	53.4%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
De Graafschap to lead by 2 at any time	40.6%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
MVV Maastricht to lead by 1 at any time	40.3%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	22.6%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
De Graafschap to lead by 3 at any time	19.1%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
MVV Maastricht to lead by 2 at any time	13.1%	10.5%	—	—	9.50
MVV Maastricht to lead by 3 at any time	3.5%	1.6%	—	—	61.58

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap most corners	74.4%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
MVV Maastricht most corners	17.8%	19.2%	—	—	5.21
Corners level	7.8%	8.3%	—	—	11.99

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.8%	87.4%	86.4%	1.01×	1.14
2-6 goals	76.7%	78.7%	78.5%	1.00×	1.27
1-4 goals	76.5%	78.7%	74.1%	1.06×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.5%	72.3%	72.7%	0.99×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.2%	63.3%	60.4%	1.05×	1.58
1-3 goals	59.5%	59.1%	54.7%	1.08×	1.69
3-6 goals	54.9%	53.2%	59.3%	0.90×	1.88
3-5 goals	49.7%	48.5%	53.6%	0.91×	2.06
2-3 goals	44.2%	43.6%	41.0%	1.06×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.4%	39.2%	41.3%	0.95×	2.55
1-2 goals	37.1%	39.2%	32.9%	1.19×	2.55
4-6 goals	32.5%	35.2%	37.6%	0.94×	2.84
4-5 goals	27.3%	30.2%	31.8%	0.95×	3.31
5-6 goals	15.5%	18.8%	18.2%	1.04×	5.31
7+ goals	3.5%	2.6%	3.2%	0.80×	39.10

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap never behind	55.2%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
MVV Maastricht never behind	24.6%	25.2%	—	—	3.97

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.4%	50.9%	49.6%	1.03×	1.96
Odd number of goals	50.6%	49.1%	50.4%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.8%	51.8%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	46.2%	48.2%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.2%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.8%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.5%	95.4%	95.2%	1.00×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	91.3%	92.3%	91.0%	1.01×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	81.0%	82.3%	78.7%	1.05×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	80.3%	82.3%	81.6%	1.01×	1.22
Under 3.5 goals	64.0%	61.7%	59.3%	1.04×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	58.5%	58.6%	62.4%	0.94×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	41.5%	41.4%	37.6%	1.10×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	36.0%	38.3%	40.7%	0.94×	2.61
Under 1.5 goals	19.7%	17.7%	18.4%	0.96×	5.65
Over 4.5 goals	19.1%	17.7%	21.3%	0.83×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	8.7%	7.7%	9.0%	0.86×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	4.5%	4.6%	4.8%	0.96×	21.83

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.3%	97.2%	96.6%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	90.3%	92.4%	89.8%	1.03×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	77.0%	75.9%	73.6%	1.03×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	74.7%	72.4%	77.2%	0.94×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	53.5%	51.9%	48.0%	1.08×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	46.5%	48.1%	52.0%	0.93×	2.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	25.3%	27.6%	22.8%	1.21×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	23.0%	24.1%	26.4%	0.91×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	9.7%	7.6%	10.2%	0.74×	13.15
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.7%	2.8%	3.4%	0.83×	35.56

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	86.4%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	72.0%	71.4%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	63.7%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	36.3%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half	28.0%	28.6%	—	—	3.50
Over 2.5 in 1st half	13.6%	11.0%	—	—	9.07

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	83.0%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	74.1%	77.6%	—	—	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	52.5%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	47.5%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	25.9%	22.4%	—	—	4.47
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.0%	17.0%	—	—	5.87

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht not to score in both halves	82.8%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
De Graafschap not to score in both halves	62.2%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
De Graafschap to score in both halves	37.8%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
MVV Maastricht to score in both halves	17.2%	15.8%	—	—	6.33

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	56.7%	58.6%	58.8%	1.00×	1.71
Only De Graafschap scores	28.9%	26.0%	22.6%	1.15×	3.84
Only MVV Maastricht scores	10.0%	7.1%	14.0%	0.51×	14.01
Neither team scores	4.5%	4.6%	4.8%	0.97×	21.60

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	21.9%	1.03×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	21.8%	22.6%	19.3%	1.17×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	17.0%	17.5%	19.5%	0.89×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	15.3%	17.5%	13.8%	1.27×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	10.3%	12.1%	12.4%	0.98×	8.25
6 or more goals	8.7%	7.6%	9.0%	0.85×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	4.5%	4.5%	4.8%	0.93×	22.35

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.8%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	28.0%	28.5%	—	—	3.50
2 goals in 1st half	22.6%	21.5%	—	—	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	13.6%	10.9%	—	—	9.16

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	52.5%	51.5%	—	—	1.94
1 goal in 2nd half	30.5%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
No goals in 2nd half	17.0%	16.7%	—	—	6.00

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht not to win both halves	96.0%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
De Graafschap not to win both halves	80.4%	83.7%	—	—	1.20
De Graafschap to win both halves	19.6%	16.3%	—	—	6.13
MVV Maastricht to win both halves	4.0%	2.8%	—	—	35.38

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap to win either half	69.2%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
MVV Maastricht to win neither half	63.8%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
MVV Maastricht to win either half	36.2%	35.0%	—	—	2.86
De Graafschap to win neither half	30.8%	32.2%	—	—	3.11

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
MVV Maastricht not to win to nil	90.0%	92.0%	86.0%	1.07×	1.09
De Graafschap not to win to nil	71.1%	75.3%	77.4%	0.97×	1.33
De Graafschap to win to nil	28.9%	24.7%	22.6%	1.09×	4.05
MVV Maastricht to win to nil	10.0%	8.0%	14.0%	0.57×	12.58

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
De Graafschap by 1	23.8%	24.1%	20.1%	1.20×	4.15
Draw	21.3%	24.1%	22.1%	1.09×	4.15
De Graafschap by 2	17.4%	17.0%	12.8%	1.33×	5.87
De Graafschap by 3+	16.1%	17.0%	11.8%	1.45×	5.87
MVV Maastricht by 1	13.6%	11.8%	18.2%	0.65×	8.51
MVV Maastricht by 2	5.6%	7.2%	8.8%	0.81×	13.91
MVV Maastricht by 3+	2.3%	2.7%	6.8%	0.40×	36.86