Defensa y Justicia v Gimnasia Mendoza — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 11 September 2026 · ARG-Liga Profesional · 2627

ARG-Liga Profesional results-only Prediction generated 10 Sep 2026, 19:28 UTC

Defensa y Justicia

2–0

22:15 UTC

Gimnasia Mendoza

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 11 Sep, 11:38 · 11h before kick-off

Defensa y Justicia win

36.8%

model 36.9%

Draw

26.5%

model 26.4%

Gimnasia Mendoza win

36.8%

model 36.6%

372637

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (7,703 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.5%
1-0 8.4%
0-1 8.4%
2-1 8.3%
1-2 8.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	51.6%	Under 2.5	48.4%
BTTS yes	56.1%	BTTS no	43.9%
Defensa y Justicia 1+	74.7%	Defensa y Justicia 2+	39.9%
Gimnasia Mendoza 1+	74.5%	Gimnasia Mendoza 2+	39.7%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.37. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

23/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Over 2.5 goals

Over/Under · usually 34%

51.8% fair odds 1.93

strong signal · 12853 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Defensa y Justicia (2:0)

Handicap 2:0 · usually 91%

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 4439 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0032 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Defensa y Justicia have an estimated 36.8% win probability, against 36.8% for Gimnasia Mendoza and 26.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.37 for Defensa y Justicia and 1.37 for Gimnasia Mendoza.

Why Defensa y Justicia

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.5%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.37 to 1.37. Draws run at 31% in this competition.

Why Gimnasia Mendoza can win

Gimnasia Mendoza carry the stronger rating, 1552 Elo against 1507. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Defensa y Justicia, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Gimnasia Mendoza, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Defensa y Justicia: 50% possession, 15.0 shots a match, 14.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Gimnasia Mendoza: 47% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 13.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-11 15:19 · team_stats 2026-09-11 06:03 · availability 2026-09-11 15:38 · prediction 2026-09-10 19:28 ·

Defensa y Justicia are the model's most likely outcome at 36.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.5%. Confidence 23/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	372637	1.37–1.37	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
ai-blend-oos	382636	1.40–1.35	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
dc-xg	332641	1.30–1.46	1-1 12%	52%	56%	Away ✗
dc-xg-oos	402535	1.45–1.35	1-1 12%	53%	57%	Home ✓
deep	402732	1.40–1.23	1-1 13%	49%	54%	Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia to win	40.4%	43.0%	41.8%	1.03×	2.33
Gimnasia Mendoza to win	32.5%	30.7%	27.6%	1.11×	3.26
Draw	27.2%	27.7%	30.7%	0.90×	3.61

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia & not both score	21.4%	21.8%	27.7%	0.79×	4.59
Defensa y Justicia & both teams score	18.9%	18.0%	14.3%	1.26×	5.55
Draw & both teams score	19.5%	18.0%	16.0%	1.13×	5.55
Gimnasia Mendoza & not both score	16.9%	18.0%	17.1%	1.05×	5.55
Gimnasia Mendoza & both teams score	15.6%	18.0%	10.6%	1.70×	5.55
Draw & not both score	7.7%	8.3%	14.8%	0.56×	11.99

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia & over 1.5	30.9%	31.0%	27.8%	1.11×	3.23
Defensa y Justicia & under 3.5	28.5%	26.0%	34.8%	0.75×	3.85
Gimnasia Mendoza & over 1.5	24.2%	21.6%	17.4%	1.24×	4.63
Defensa y Justicia & over 2.5	23.8%	21.6%	18.4%	1.18×	4.63
Gimnasia Mendoza & under 3.5	23.6%	21.6%	23.5%	0.92×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	20.7%	21.6%	28.2%	0.77×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	20.7%	21.6%	28.2%	0.77×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.5%	18.0%	16.0%	1.13×	5.57
Gimnasia Mendoza & over 2.5	18.7%	18.0%	13.1%	1.37×	5.57
Defensa y Justicia & under 2.5	16.5%	18.0%	23.6%	0.76×	5.57
Gimnasia Mendoza & under 2.5	13.7%	12.8%	14.6%	0.88×	7.78
Defensa y Justicia & over 3.5	11.8%	12.8%	7.2%	1.79×	7.79
Defensa y Justicia & under 1.5	9.5%	8.0%	14.1%	0.56×	12.55
Gimnasia Mendoza & over 3.5	8.9%	8.0%	4.2%	1.89×	12.55
Draw & under 1.5	7.7%	8.0%	14.8%	0.54×	12.55
Gimnasia Mendoza & under 1.5	8.3%	8.0%	10.3%	0.78×	12.55
Draw & over 2.5	6.5%	8.0%	2.6%	3.04×	12.56
Draw & over 3.5	6.5%	8.0%	2.6%	3.04×	12.56

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia (1UP)	56.5%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Gimnasia Mendoza (1UP)	49.7%	43.4%	—	—	2.30

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia (2UP)	40.4%	47.5%	—	—	2.11
Gimnasia Mendoza (2UP)	32.5%	30.8%	—	—	3.24

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	36.5%	36.0%	—	—	2.78
Defensa y Justicia to win 2nd half	33.5%	34.4%	—	—	2.90
Gimnasia Mendoza to win 2nd half	30.0%	34.4%	—	—	2.91

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gimnasia Mendoza under 1.5 in 2nd half	83.0%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Gimnasia Mendoza over 0.5 in 2nd half	52.3%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Gimnasia Mendoza under 0.5 in 2nd half	47.7%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Gimnasia Mendoza over 1.5 in 2nd half	17.0%	15.9%	—	—	6.31

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia under 1.5 in 2nd half	80.9%	82.3%	—	—	1.22
Defensa y Justicia over 0.5 in 2nd half	55.0%	58.7%	—	—	1.70
Defensa y Justicia under 0.5 in 2nd half	45.0%	41.3%	—	—	2.42
Defensa y Justicia over 1.5 in 2nd half	19.1%	17.7%	—	—	5.65

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gimnasia Mendoza (+2.5)	92.8%	92.1%	95.0%	0.97×	1.09
Gimnasia Mendoza (+1.5)	80.7%	82.6%	82.3%	1.00×	1.21
Defensa y Justicia (+0.5)	67.5%	68.7%	72.4%	0.95×	1.46
Gimnasia Mendoza (+0.5)	59.6%	56.9%	58.2%	0.98×	1.76
Defensa y Justicia (-0.5)	40.4%	43.1%	41.8%	1.03×	2.32
Gimnasia Mendoza (-0.5)	32.5%	31.3%	27.6%	1.13×	3.19
Defensa y Justicia (-1.5)	19.3%	17.4%	17.7%	0.99×	5.74
Defensa y Justicia (-2.5)	7.2%	7.9%	5.0%	1.56×	12.74

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gimnasia Mendoza to concede	75.4%	78.6%	68.2%	1.15×	1.27
Gimnasia Mendoza clean sheet	24.6%	21.4%	31.8%	0.67×	4.68

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gimnasia Mendoza to concede in 1st half	45.3%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Gimnasia Mendoza clean sheet in 1st half	54.7%	49.3%	—	—	2.03

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gimnasia Mendoza to concede in 2nd half	55.0%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
Gimnasia Mendoza clean sheet in 2nd half	45.0%	41.8%	—	—	2.39

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gimnasia Mendoza under 3.5 goals	96.3%	97.4%	98.9%	0.99×	1.03
Gimnasia Mendoza under 2.5 goals	87.2%	87.9%	93.4%	0.94×	1.14
Gimnasia Mendoza over 0.5 goals	70.9%	71.8%	57.6%	1.25×	1.39
Gimnasia Mendoza under 1.5 goals	65.1%	67.8%	78.2%	0.87×	1.48
Gimnasia Mendoza over 1.5 goals	34.9%	32.2%	21.8%	1.48×	3.11
Gimnasia Mendoza under 0.5 goals	29.1%	28.2%	42.4%	0.66×	3.55
Gimnasia Mendoza over 2.5 goals	12.8%	12.1%	6.6%	1.83×	8.25
Gimnasia Mendoza over 3.5 goals	3.7%	2.6%	1.1%	2.27×	38.68

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gimnasia Mendoza under 1.5 in 1st half	91.2%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Gimnasia Mendoza under 0.5 in 1st half	61.1%	64.2%	—	—	1.56
Gimnasia Mendoza over 0.5 in 1st half	38.9%	35.8%	—	—	2.79
Gimnasia Mendoza over 1.5 in 1st half	8.8%	5.9%	—	—	17.03

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gimnasia Mendoza scores equally in both	40.8%	43.8%	—	—	2.28
Gimnasia Mendoza scores more in 2nd half	37.3%	36.4%	—	—	2.74
Gimnasia Mendoza scores more in 1st half	21.9%	22.4%	—	—	4.47

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia (away no bet)	59.7%	57.5%	57.7%	1.00×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	40.3%	42.5%	42.3%	1.00×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gimnasia Mendoza even goals	54.2%	52.7%	58.4%	0.90×	1.90
Gimnasia Mendoza odd goals	45.8%	47.3%	41.6%	1.14×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	86.4%	87.6%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	13.6%	12.4%	—	—	8.07

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	62.1%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Both halves under 1.5 goals	37.9%	41.9%	—	—	2.39

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	53.7%	51.4%	—	—	1.95
Defensa y Justicia to score 2+ in a row	32.8%	29.1%	—	—	3.43
Gimnasia Mendoza to score 2+ in a row	26.8%	25.0%	—	—	4.00
Either team to score 3+ in a row	18.1%	16.3%	—	—	6.13
Defensa y Justicia to score 3+ in a row	10.7%	12.2%	—	—	8.22
Gimnasia Mendoza to score 3+ in a row	7.6%	5.6%	—	—	17.73

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	13.0%	11.4%	13.5%	0.84×	8.80
1-0	9.5%	7.4%	14.1%	0.52×	13.53
2-1	8.7%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.53
0-0	7.7%	7.4%	14.8%	0.50×	13.54
0-1	8.3%	7.4%	10.3%	0.72×	13.54
1-2	7.6%	7.4%	7.1%	1.05×	13.54
2-0	7.1%	7.4%	9.6%	0.77×	13.54
0-2	5.4%	7.4%	4.4%	1.66×	13.54
2-2	5.4%	7.4%	2.3%	3.24×	13.54
0-3	2.2%	1.7%	2.1%	0.85×	57.57
0-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.6%	3.05×	57.58
1-3	3.1%	1.7%	1.9%	0.90×	57.56
1-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.3%	5.08×	57.57
2-3	2.2%	1.7%	1.5%	1.17×	57.57
2-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.1%	15.24×	57.58
3-0	3.3%	1.7%	2.7%	0.63×	57.56
3-1	4.1%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	57.56
3-2	2.5%	1.7%	1.6%	1.09×	57.57
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	0.3%	5.08×	57.57
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.1%	15.23×	57.58
4-0	1.2%	1.7%	1.1%	1.52×	57.57
4-1	1.4%	1.7%	0.8%	2.18×	57.57
4-2	0.9%	1.7%	0.3%	5.08×	57.58
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%	7.62×	57.58
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.62×	57.58
Any other score	2.3%	1.7%	0.9%	1.90×	57.57

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia (2nd half DNB)	52.7%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Gimnasia Mendoza (2nd half DNB)	47.3%	47.0%	—	—	2.13

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia leading at HT (DNB)	56.5%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Gimnasia Mendoza leading at HT (DNB)	43.5%	41.9%	—	—	2.39

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia or Gimnasia Mendoza (12)	72.8%	72.3%	69.3%	1.04×	1.38
Defensa y Justicia or draw (1X)	67.5%	69.3%	72.4%	0.96×	1.44
Gimnasia Mendoza or draw (X2)	59.6%	57.0%	58.2%	0.98×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia or draw at HT	75.7%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Gimnasia Mendoza or draw at HT	68.6%	66.4%	—	—	1.51
Defensa y Justicia or Gimnasia Mendoza at HT	55.7%	57.0%	—	—	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia or draw (1UP)	67.5%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Gimnasia Mendoza or draw (1UP)	59.6%	62.9%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia or draw in 2nd half	70.0%	65.6%	—	—	1.52
Gimnasia Mendoza or draw in 2nd half	66.5%	65.6%	—	—	1.53
Defensa y Justicia or Gimnasia Mendoza in 2nd half	63.5%	64.0%	—	—	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	64.0%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Neither half drawn	36.0%	38.3%	—	—	2.61

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia (DNB)	55.4%	58.3%	60.3%	0.97×	1.72
Gimnasia Mendoza (DNB)	44.6%	41.7%	39.7%	1.05×	2.40

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia to score first	49.1%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Gimnasia Mendoza to score first	43.2%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
No goal scored	7.7%	7.5%	—	—	13.32

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	54.0%	51.6%	40.6%	1.27×	1.94
Not both teams to score	46.0%	48.4%	59.4%	0.81×	2.07

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	41.0%	41.7%	27.3%	1.53×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	38.0%	38.6%	52.8%	0.73×	2.59
Both score & under 2.5	13.0%	12.3%	13.5%	0.91×	8.14
Not both score & over 2.5	8.0%	8.3%	6.7%	1.24×	11.99

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	85.7%	85.4%	94.1%	0.91×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	14.3%	14.6%	5.9%	2.46×	6.86

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	71.0%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.0%	26.0%	—	—	3.85

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	58.4%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
Both score 2nd half only	23.9%	21.0%	—	—	4.76
Both score 1st half only	12.7%	10.7%	—	—	9.32
Both score in both halves	5.1%	6.8%	—	—	14.77

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.3%	82.3%	—	—	1.22
Both teams to score by HT	17.7%	17.7%	—	—	5.66

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	52.6%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
A half without a goal	47.4%	46.6%	—	—	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.3%	46.9%	47.3%	0.99×	2.13
0-1 goals	25.5%	27.0%	39.0%	0.69×	3.71
4-6 goals	25.3%	27.0%	13.5%	2.00×	3.71
7+ goals	1.8%	1.8%	0.5%	4.05×	54.11

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gimnasia Mendoza to score exactly 1	35.9%	35.7%	35.9%	1.00×	2.80
Gimnasia Mendoza to score exactly 0	29.1%	27.6%	42.4%	0.65×	3.62
Gimnasia Mendoza to score exactly 2	22.2%	22.4%	15.3%	1.47×	4.47
Gimnasia Mendoza to score 3+	12.8%	13.0%	6.6%	1.97×	7.69

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia to score exactly 1	34.5%	32.6%	36.5%	0.89×	3.07
Defensa y Justicia to score exactly 0	24.6%	23.4%	31.8%	0.74×	4.27
Defensa y Justicia to score exactly 2	24.2%	23.4%	21.8%	1.08×	4.27
Defensa y Justicia to score 3+	16.7%	19.1%	10.1%	1.88×	5.23

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	44.3%	43.0%	—	—	2.32
Defensa y Justicia leading at HT	31.4%	33.6%	—	—	2.98
Gimnasia Mendoza leading at HT	24.3%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia -1: 2	59.6%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Defensa y Justicia -1: X	21.1%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Defensa y Justicia -1: 1	19.3%	17.3%	—	—	5.77

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gimnasia Mendoza (0:1)	59.6%	55.6%	58.2%	0.96×	1.80
Draw (0:1)	21.1%	24.4%	24.3%	1.00×	4.10
Defensa y Justicia (0:1)	19.3%	17.8%	17.7%	1.01×	5.62

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gimnasia Mendoza (0:2)	80.7%	83.1%	82.3%	1.01×	1.20
Draw (0:2)	12.1%	10.9%	12.8%	0.86×	9.16
Defensa y Justicia (0:2)	7.2%	7.7%	5.0%	1.53×	13.03

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gimnasia Mendoza (0:3)	92.8%	92.7%	95.0%	0.98×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.0%	2.4%	3.4%	0.69×	42.23
Defensa y Justicia (0:3)	2.2%	2.4%	1.7%	1.38×	42.35

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gimnasia Mendoza (0:4)	97.8%	98.1%	98.3%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.6%	1.2%	1.3%	0.98×	81.00
Defensa y Justicia (0:4)	0.5%	1.2%	0.6%	2.16×	81.11

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia (1:0)	67.5%	69.5%	72.4%	0.96×	1.44
Draw (1:0)	18.5%	17.1%	18.6%	0.92×	5.84
Gimnasia Mendoza (1:0)	14.0%	12.8%	9.1%	1.40×	7.82

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia (2:0)	86.0%	88.2%	90.9%	0.97×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	9.4%	6.5%	6.3%	1.04×	15.29
Gimnasia Mendoza (2:0)	4.6%	2.4%	3.0%	0.82×	41.14

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.1%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
1st half highest scoring	26.7%	26.5%	—	—	3.78
Halves equal	26.3%	26.5%	—	—	3.78

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia to concede	70.9%	73.1%	57.6%	1.27×	1.37
Defensa y Justicia clean sheet	29.1%	26.9%	42.4%	0.63×	3.72

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia clean sheet in 1st half	61.1%	64.2%	—	—	1.56
Defensa y Justicia to concede in 1st half	38.9%	35.8%	—	—	2.79

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia to concede in 2nd half	52.3%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Defensa y Justicia clean sheet in 2nd half	47.7%	46.8%	—	—	2.14

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia under 3.5 goals	94.6%	92.1%	97.1%	0.95×	1.09
Defensa y Justicia under 2.5 goals	83.3%	81.9%	89.9%	0.91×	1.22
Defensa y Justicia over 0.5 goals	75.4%	77.4%	68.2%	1.14×	1.29
Defensa y Justicia under 1.5 goals	59.1%	58.6%	68.2%	0.86×	1.71
Defensa y Justicia over 1.5 goals	40.9%	41.4%	31.8%	1.30×	2.41
Defensa y Justicia under 0.5 goals	24.6%	22.6%	31.8%	0.71×	4.43
Defensa y Justicia over 2.5 goals	16.7%	18.1%	10.1%	1.78×	5.54
Defensa y Justicia over 3.5 goals	5.4%	7.9%	2.9%	2.77×	12.68

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia under 1.5 in 1st half	87.7%	89.8%	—	—	1.11
Defensa y Justicia over 0.5 in 1st half	45.3%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Defensa y Justicia under 0.5 in 1st half	54.7%	49.2%	—	—	2.03
Defensa y Justicia over 1.5 in 1st half	12.3%	10.2%	—	—	9.81

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia scores equally in both	38.0%	37.5%	—	—	2.66
Defensa y Justicia scores more in 2nd half	36.9%	37.5%	—	—	2.67
Defensa y Justicia scores more in 1st half	25.1%	28.0%	—	—	3.57

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gimnasia Mendoza (home no bet)	54.4%	51.5%	47.4%	1.09×	1.94
Draw (home no bet)	45.6%	48.5%	52.6%	0.92×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia even goals	53.0%	50.4%	55.6%	0.91×	1.98
Defensa y Justicia odd goals	47.0%	49.6%	44.4%	1.12×	2.02

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	33.5%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
HT 1-0	20.1%	24.1%	—	—	4.15
HT 0-1	16.4%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
HT 1-1	10.0%	10.9%	—	—	9.19
HT 2-0	6.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.03
HT 0-2	4.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.24
Any other HT score	3.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.26
HT 2-1	3.0%	2.3%	—	—	43.32
HT 1-2	2.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.36
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.48

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia at HT / Defensa y Justicia at FT	23.6%	21.9%	—	—	4.56
Gimnasia Mendoza at HT / Gimnasia Mendoza at FT	17.2%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.8%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Defensa y Justicia at FT	14.5%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Gimnasia Mendoza at FT	13.0%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Defensa y Justicia at HT / Draw at FT	5.5%	6.0%	—	—	16.59
Gimnasia Mendoza at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.93
Defensa y Justicia at HT / Gimnasia Mendoza at FT	2.3%	3.4%	—	—	29.03
Gimnasia Mendoza at HT / Defensa y Justicia at FT	2.2%	3.4%	—	—	29.04

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia to score last	49.1%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Gimnasia Mendoza to score last	43.2%	40.1%	—	—	2.49
No goal scored	7.7%	7.5%	—	—	13.32

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.3%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Defensa y Justicia to lead by 1 at any time	56.5%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Gimnasia Mendoza to lead by 1 at any time	49.7%	44.1%	—	—	2.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	44.6%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Defensa y Justicia to lead by 2 at any time	25.3%	25.5%	—	—	3.93
Gimnasia Mendoza to lead by 2 at any time	19.5%	15.0%	—	—	6.69
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	15.1%	14.9%	—	—	6.73
Defensa y Justicia to lead by 3 at any time	9.0%	6.7%	—	—	14.92
Gimnasia Mendoza to lead by 3 at any time	6.1%	6.6%	—	—	15.06

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.1%	87.5%	84.3%	1.04×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.5%	78.5%	79.9%	0.98×	1.27
2-6 goals	72.7%	72.3%	60.7%	1.19×	1.38
2-5 goals	69.3%	68.8%	60.1%	1.14×	1.45
1-3 goals	65.1%	68.8%	71.5%	0.96×	1.45
2-4 goals	61.7%	63.2%	55.8%	1.13×	1.58
2-3 goals	47.3%	48.4%	47.3%	1.02×	2.07
3-6 goals	47.2%	48.4%	33.5%	1.44×	2.07
3-5 goals	43.9%	43.6%	33.0%	1.32×	2.29
1-2 goals	43.2%	43.6%	51.4%	0.85×	2.29
3-4 goals	36.3%	39.3%	28.6%	1.37×	2.55
4-6 goals	25.3%	30.6%	13.5%	2.28×	3.26
4-5 goals	22.0%	24.8%	12.9%	1.93×	4.03
5-6 goals	10.9%	15.0%	5.0%	2.99×	6.66
7+ goals	1.8%	2.6%	0.5%	5.62×	38.99

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia never behind	42.6%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
Gimnasia Mendoza never behind	35.7%	44.5%	—	—	2.25

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.6%	51.0%	48.9%	1.04×	1.96
Even number of goals	51.4%	49.0%	51.1%	0.96×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.8%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	44.2%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.7%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.3%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.8%	92.2%	99.0%	0.93×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	92.3%	92.2%	85.2%	1.08×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	87.2%	87.5%	94.6%	0.92×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	74.5%	72.4%	61.0%	1.19×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	72.8%	72.4%	86.2%	0.84×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	51.0%	52.9%	66.1%	0.80×	1.89
Over 2.5 goals	49.0%	47.1%	33.9%	1.39×	2.13
Over 3.5 goals	27.2%	27.6%	13.8%	2.00×	3.62
Under 1.5 goals	25.5%	27.6%	39.0%	0.71×	3.62
Over 4.5 goals	12.8%	12.5%	5.4%	2.34×	7.97
Under 0.5 goals	7.7%	7.8%	14.8%	0.53×	12.85
Over 5.5 goals	5.2%	7.8%	1.0%	7.58×	12.86

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.1%	97.1%	99.5%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.4%	92.4%	98.9%	0.93×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	85.1%	86.6%	94.1%	0.92×	1.16
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	65.8%	67.6%	46.5%	1.45×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	65.2%	67.6%	82.7%	0.82×	1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	34.8%	32.4%	17.3%	1.88×	3.09
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	34.2%	32.4%	53.5%	0.61×	3.09
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	14.9%	13.4%	5.9%	2.29×	7.45
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.6%	7.6%	1.1%	7.08×	13.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.9%	2.9%	0.5%	6.22×	35.01

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.1%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	69.9%	69.1%	—	—	1.45
Over 0.5 in 1st half	66.5%	69.0%	—	—	1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half	33.5%	31.0%	—	—	3.23
Over 1.5 in 1st half	30.1%	30.9%	—	—	3.24
Over 2.5 in 1st half	9.9%	7.5%	—	—	13.41

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.9%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	78.4%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	54.3%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	45.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.6%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.1%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gimnasia Mendoza not to score in both halves	79.6%	78.3%	—	—	1.28
Defensa y Justicia not to score in both halves	75.1%	78.1%	—	—	1.28
Defensa y Justicia to score in both halves	24.9%	21.9%	—	—	4.56
Gimnasia Mendoza to score in both halves	20.4%	21.8%	—	—	4.60

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	54.0%	54.3%	40.6%	1.34×	1.84
Only Defensa y Justicia scores	21.4%	22.0%	27.7%	0.80×	4.54
Only Gimnasia Mendoza scores	16.9%	16.0%	17.1%	0.93×	6.26
Neither team scores	7.7%	7.1%	14.8%	0.48×	14.11

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.5%	24.7%	27.3%	0.91×	4.05
Exactly 3 goals	21.9%	22.4%	20.2%	1.11×	4.46
Exactly 1 goals	17.8%	17.5%	24.3%	0.72×	5.70
Exactly 4 goals	14.4%	12.1%	8.6%	1.41×	8.27
Exactly 0 goals	7.7%	7.8%	14.8%	0.52×	12.89
Exactly 5 goals	7.6%	7.8%	4.4%	1.74×	12.89
6 or more goals	5.2%	7.8%	1.0%	7.56×	12.90

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.4%	37.1%	—	—	2.70
No goals in 1st half	33.5%	35.9%	—	—	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	20.2%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
3+ goals in 1st half	9.9%	7.5%	—	—	13.41

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	45.7%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
1 goal in 2nd half	32.6%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
No goals in 2nd half	21.6%	23.0%	—	—	4.35

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gimnasia Mendoza not to win both halves	92.6%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Defensa y Justicia not to win both halves	89.4%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Defensa y Justicia to win both halves	10.6%	12.1%	—	—	8.27
Gimnasia Mendoza to win both halves	7.4%	6.0%	—	—	16.61

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia to win either half	54.3%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Gimnasia Mendoza to win neither half	53.1%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Gimnasia Mendoza to win either half	46.9%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
Defensa y Justicia to win neither half	45.7%	45.0%	—	—	2.22

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Gimnasia Mendoza not to win to nil	83.1%	83.2%	82.9%	1.00×	1.20
Defensa y Justicia not to win to nil	78.6%	78.3%	72.3%	1.08×	1.28
Defensa y Justicia to win to nil	21.4%	21.7%	27.7%	0.78×	4.62
Gimnasia Mendoza to win to nil	16.9%	16.8%	17.1%	0.98×	5.95

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	27.2%	27.7%	30.7%	0.90×	3.61
Defensa y Justicia by 1	21.1%	24.1%	24.3%	0.99×	4.15
Gimnasia Mendoza by 1	18.5%	16.9%	18.6%	0.91×	5.91
Defensa y Justicia by 2	12.1%	11.8%	12.8%	0.92×	8.50
Gimnasia Mendoza by 2	9.4%	7.3%	6.3%	1.16×	13.78
Defensa y Justicia by 3+	7.2%	7.3%	5.0%	1.45×	13.79
Gimnasia Mendoza by 3+	4.6%	2.8%	3.0%	0.95×	35.55

Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.