Defensa y Justicia v Independiente — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 1 November 2026 · ARG-Liga Profesional · 2627

ARG-Liga Profesional results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Defensa y Justicia

20:00 UTC

Independiente

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 27 Oct, 10:57 · 129h before kick-off

Defensa y Justicia win

39.8%

model 37.2%

Draw

28.9%

model 28.4%

Independiente win

31.3%

model 34.4%

402931

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.5%
1-0 10.1%
0-1 9.7%
0-0 9.1%
2-1 8.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	44.7%	Under 2.5	55.3%
BTTS yes	50.7%	BTTS no	49.3%
Defensa y Justicia 1+	71.7%	Defensa y Justicia 2+	35.9%
Independiente 1+	70.0%	Independiente 2+	33.9%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.20. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

24/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Both teams to score

GG/NG · usually 41%

53.3% fair odds 1.88

strong signal · 1528 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Independiente (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 82%

83.7% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0026 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Defensa y Justicia have an estimated 39.8% win probability, against 31.3% for Independiente and 28.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.26 for Defensa y Justicia and 1.20 for Independiente.

Why Defensa y Justicia

Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.9%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.26 to 1.20. Draws run at 31% in this competition.

Why Independiente can win

Nothing in the data singles out Independiente.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Defensa y Justicia, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Independiente, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Defensa y Justicia: 48% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 14.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Independiente: 56% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 12.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Defensa y Justicia are the model's most likely outcome at 39.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.5%. Confidence 24/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	372834	1.26–1.20	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	392833	1.33–1.21	1-1 13%	47%	52%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia to win	38.8%	36.4%	41.8%	0.87×	2.75
Independiente to win	33.3%	30.4%	27.6%	1.10×	3.29
Draw	27.8%	27.9%	30.7%	0.91×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia & not both score	21.3%	21.8%	27.7%	0.79×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	19.4%	18.0%	16.0%	1.13×	5.56
Independiente & not both score	18.0%	18.0%	17.1%	1.05×	5.56
Defensa y Justicia & both teams score	17.5%	18.0%	14.3%	1.26×	5.56
Independiente & both teams score	15.3%	18.0%	10.6%	1.69×	5.57
Draw & not both score	8.5%	8.3%	14.8%	0.56×	12.00

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia & over 1.5	28.9%	26.1%	27.8%	0.94×	3.84
Defensa y Justicia & under 3.5	28.4%	26.1%	34.8%	0.75×	3.84
Independiente & under 3.5	24.8%	21.6%	23.5%	0.92×	4.63
Independiente & over 1.5	24.3%	21.6%	17.4%	1.24×	4.63
Defensa y Justicia & over 2.5	22.0%	21.6%	18.4%	1.18×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	21.7%	21.6%	28.2%	0.77×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	21.7%	21.6%	28.2%	0.77×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.4%	18.0%	16.0%	1.13×	5.55
Independiente & over 2.5	18.6%	18.0%	13.1%	1.37×	5.55
Defensa y Justicia & under 2.5	16.9%	18.0%	23.6%	0.76×	5.56
Independiente & under 2.5	14.8%	12.8%	14.6%	0.88×	7.79
Defensa y Justicia & over 3.5	10.5%	12.8%	7.2%	1.79×	7.79
Defensa y Justicia & under 1.5	9.9%	7.9%	14.1%	0.56×	12.63
Independiente & under 1.5	9.0%	7.9%	10.3%	0.77×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	8.5%	7.9%	14.8%	0.53×	12.63
Independiente & over 3.5	8.5%	7.9%	4.2%	1.88×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.1%	7.9%	2.6%	3.02×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.1%	7.9%	2.6%	3.02×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia (1UP)	54.8%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Independiente (1UP)	49.9%	44.0%	—	—	2.27

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia (2UP)	38.8%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Independiente (2UP)	33.3%	30.3%	—	—	3.30

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	37.4%	36.4%	—	—	2.74
Defensa y Justicia to win 2nd half	32.2%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
Independiente to win 2nd half	30.4%	34.0%	—	—	2.95

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente under 1.5 in 2nd half	83.5%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Independiente over 0.5 in 2nd half	51.7%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Independiente under 0.5 in 2nd half	48.3%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Independiente over 1.5 in 2nd half	16.5%	15.8%	—	—	6.32

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia under 1.5 in 2nd half	82.4%	82.4%	—	—	1.21
Defensa y Justicia over 0.5 in 2nd half	53.1%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Defensa y Justicia under 0.5 in 2nd half	46.9%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
Defensa y Justicia over 1.5 in 2nd half	17.6%	17.6%	—	—	5.68

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente (+2.5)	93.6%	92.1%	95.0%	0.97×	1.09
Independiente (+1.5)	82.1%	82.6%	82.3%	1.00×	1.21
Defensa y Justicia (+0.5)	66.7%	68.7%	72.4%	0.95×	1.46
Independiente (+0.5)	61.2%	62.9%	58.2%	1.08×	1.59
Defensa y Justicia (-0.5)	38.8%	37.1%	41.8%	0.89×	2.70
Independiente (-0.5)	33.3%	31.3%	27.6%	1.14×	3.19
Defensa y Justicia (-1.5)	17.9%	17.4%	17.7%	0.99×	5.74
Defensa y Justicia (-2.5)	6.4%	7.9%	5.0%	1.57×	12.71

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente to concede	73.5%	76.7%	68.2%	1.12×	1.30
Independiente clean sheet	26.5%	23.3%	31.8%	0.73×	4.29

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente clean sheet in 1st half	56.5%	56.4%	—	—	1.77
Independiente to concede in 1st half	43.5%	43.6%	—	—	2.30

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente to concede in 2nd half	53.1%	54.5%	—	—	1.83
Independiente clean sheet in 2nd half	46.9%	45.5%	—	—	2.20

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente over 2.5 corners	81.2%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Independiente under 6.5 corners	75.6%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Independiente over 3.5 corners	66.5%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Independiente under 5.5 corners	63.8%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Independiente over 4.5 corners	50.7%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Independiente under 4.5 corners	49.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Independiente over 5.5 corners	36.2%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Independiente under 3.5 corners	33.5%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Independiente over 6.5 corners	24.4%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Independiente under 2.5 corners	18.8%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente under 3.5 goals	96.5%	97.5%	98.9%	0.99×	1.03
Independiente under 2.5 goals	87.7%	87.8%	93.4%	0.94×	1.14
Independiente over 0.5 goals	70.2%	71.8%	57.6%	1.25×	1.39
Independiente under 1.5 goals	65.8%	68.0%	78.2%	0.87×	1.47
Independiente over 1.5 goals	34.2%	32.0%	21.8%	1.47×	3.13
Independiente under 0.5 goals	29.8%	28.2%	42.4%	0.66×	3.55
Independiente over 2.5 goals	12.3%	12.2%	6.6%	1.84×	8.20
Independiente over 3.5 goals	3.5%	2.5%	1.1%	2.20×	39.79

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente under 1.5 in 1st half	91.4%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Independiente under 0.5 in 1st half	61.6%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Independiente over 0.5 in 1st half	38.4%	36.8%	—	—	2.71
Independiente over 1.5 in 1st half	8.6%	6.1%	—	—	16.38

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente scores equally in both	41.2%	43.6%	—	—	2.29
Independiente scores more in 2nd half	37.0%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Independiente scores more in 1st half	21.8%	21.8%	—	—	4.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia (away no bet)	58.3%	57.4%	57.7%	0.99×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	41.7%	42.6%	42.3%	1.01×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente even goals	54.4%	52.7%	58.4%	0.90×	1.90
Independiente odd goals	45.6%	47.3%	41.6%	1.14×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	87.5%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	12.5%	12.1%	—	—	8.26

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	60.0%	57.3%	—	—	1.75
Both halves under 1.5 goals	40.0%	42.7%	—	—	2.34

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	51.8%	50.9%	—	—	1.97
Defensa y Justicia to score 2+ in a row	30.6%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
Independiente to score 2+ in a row	26.5%	24.9%	—	—	4.01
Either team to score 3+ in a row	16.9%	16.1%	—	—	6.20
Defensa y Justicia to score 3+ in a row	9.6%	5.6%	—	—	18.01
Independiente to score 3+ in a row	7.5%	5.5%	—	—	18.18

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente corners (+3.5)	85.5%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Defensa y Justicia corners (+3.5)	81.9%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Independiente corners (+2.5)	78.2%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Defensa y Justicia corners (+2.5)	73.8%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Independiente corners (+1.5)	69.1%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Defensa y Justicia corners (+1.5)	63.9%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Independiente corners (-1.5)	36.1%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Defensa y Justicia corners (-1.5)	30.9%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Independiente corners (-2.5)	26.2%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Defensa y Justicia corners (-2.5)	21.8%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Independiente corners (-3.5)	18.1%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Defensa y Justicia corners (-3.5)	14.5%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	42.8%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	30.2%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
12+ corners	27.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	80.4%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	73.0%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	68.2%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	64.0%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	57.2%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	53.8%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	46.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	42.8%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	36.0%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	31.8%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	27.0%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	19.6%	19.3%	—	—	5.17

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	13.3%	11.5%	13.5%	0.85×	8.71
0-0	8.5%	7.4%	14.8%	0.50×	13.51
0-1	9.0%	7.4%	10.3%	0.72×	13.51
1-0	9.9%	7.4%	14.1%	0.52×	13.51
2-1	8.4%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.51
1-2	7.7%	7.4%	7.1%	1.05×	13.51
2-0	7.0%	7.4%	9.6%	0.77×	13.51
0-2	5.8%	7.4%	4.4%	1.66×	13.51
2-2	5.1%	7.4%	2.3%	3.25×	13.51
0-3	2.3%	1.7%	2.1%	0.84×	58.31
0-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.6%	3.01×	58.32
1-3	3.1%	1.7%	1.9%	0.88×	58.30
1-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.3%	5.01×	58.31
2-3	2.1%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
2-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.1%	15.04×	58.32
3-0	3.1%	1.7%	2.7%	0.63×	58.30
3-1	3.7%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.30
3-2	2.3%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	58.31
3-3	0.9%	1.7%	0.3%	5.01×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.1%	15.04×	58.32
4-0	1.0%	1.7%	1.1%	1.50×	58.31
4-1	1.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.15×	58.31
4-2	0.8%	1.7%	0.3%	5.01×	58.31
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	7.52×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.52×	58.32
Any other score	2.0%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia (2nd half DNB)	51.4%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Independiente (2nd half DNB)	48.6%	45.6%	—	—	2.19

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia leading at HT (DNB)	55.2%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
Independiente leading at HT (DNB)	44.8%	44.7%	—	—	2.24

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia or Independiente (12)	72.2%	72.1%	69.3%	1.04×	1.39
Defensa y Justicia or draw (1X)	66.7%	69.6%	72.4%	0.96×	1.44
Independiente or draw (X2)	61.2%	63.6%	58.2%	1.09×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia or draw at HT	75.5%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Independiente or draw at HT	69.8%	67.3%	—	—	1.49
Defensa y Justicia or Independiente at HT	54.7%	48.7%	—	—	2.05

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia or draw (1UP)	66.7%	76.3%	—	—	1.31
Independiente or draw (1UP)	61.2%	71.5%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia or draw in 2nd half	69.6%	66.0%	—	—	1.51
Independiente or draw in 2nd half	67.8%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
Defensa y Justicia or Independiente in 2nd half	62.6%	63.6%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	65.1%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Neither half drawn	34.9%	32.0%	—	—	3.12

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia (DNB)	53.8%	50.9%	60.3%	0.85×	1.96
Independiente (DNB)	46.2%	49.1%	39.7%	1.23×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia to score first	47.9%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
Independiente to score first	43.7%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	8.5%	7.6%	—	—	13.15

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	52.2%	51.3%	40.6%	1.26×	1.95
Not both teams to score	47.8%	48.7%	59.4%	0.82×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	40.1%	41.6%	52.8%	0.79×	2.41
Both score & over 2.5	39.0%	38.5%	27.3%	1.41×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	13.3%	12.4%	13.5%	0.92×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	7.7%	8.3%	6.7%	1.23×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.9%	85.6%	94.1%	0.91×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.1%	14.4%	5.9%	2.43×	6.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	72.4%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	27.6%	26.4%	—	—	3.79

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	60.1%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Both score 2nd half only	23.1%	21.3%	—	—	4.70
Both score 1st half only	12.2%	10.7%	—	—	9.32
Both score in both halves	4.6%	4.9%	—	—	20.22

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	83.2%	83.5%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	16.8%	16.5%	—	—	6.05

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	50.7%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
A half without a goal	49.3%	47.5%	—	—	2.11

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.6%	47.2%	47.3%	1.00×	2.12
0-1 goals	27.3%	26.6%	39.0%	0.68×	3.76
4-6 goals	23.6%	22.9%	13.5%	1.70×	4.36
7+ goals	1.5%	1.8%	0.5%	4.03×	54.41

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente to score exactly 1	36.1%	35.9%	35.9%	1.00×	2.79
Independiente to score exactly 0	29.8%	27.5%	42.4%	0.65×	3.64
Independiente to score exactly 2	21.9%	22.3%	15.3%	1.46×	4.49
Independiente to score 3+	12.3%	12.9%	6.6%	1.95×	7.76

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia to score exactly 1	35.2%	35.5%	36.5%	0.97×	2.81
Defensa y Justicia to score exactly 0	26.5%	26.6%	31.8%	0.83×	3.77
Defensa y Justicia to score exactly 2	23.4%	23.3%	21.8%	1.07×	4.29
Defensa y Justicia to score 3+	15.0%	14.3%	10.1%	1.41×	6.98

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	45.3%	51.3%	—	—	1.95
Defensa y Justicia leading at HT	30.2%	32.7%	—	—	3.06
Independiente leading at HT	24.5%	20.5%	—	—	4.88

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia -1: 2	61.2%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Defensa y Justicia -1: X	20.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Defensa y Justicia -1: 1	17.9%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente (0:1)	61.2%	61.4%	58.2%	1.06×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	20.9%	24.2%	24.3%	1.00×	4.13
Defensa y Justicia (0:1)	17.9%	17.8%	17.7%	1.01×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente (0:2)	82.1%	83.0%	82.3%	1.01×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	11.5%	11.0%	12.8%	0.86×	9.10
Defensa y Justicia (0:2)	6.4%	7.7%	5.0%	1.53×	13.07

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente (0:3)	93.6%	92.7%	95.0%	0.98×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.5%	2.4%	3.4%	0.70×	41.94
Defensa y Justicia (0:3)	1.8%	2.4%	1.7%	1.39×	42.06

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente (0:4)	98.2%	98.1%	98.3%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.4%	1.2%	1.3%	0.97×	81.81
Defensa y Justicia (0:4)	0.4%	1.2%	0.6%	2.14×	81.92

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia (1:0)	66.7%	70.1%	72.4%	0.97×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	19.0%	17.1%	18.6%	0.92×	5.85
Independiente (1:0)	14.3%	12.7%	9.1%	1.39×	7.86

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia (2:0)	85.7%	88.5%	90.9%	0.97×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	9.6%	6.4%	6.3%	1.02×	15.63
Independiente (2:0)	4.7%	2.3%	3.0%	0.77×	43.63

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.6%	48.5%	—	—	2.06
Halves equal	26.9%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
1st half highest scoring	26.6%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia to concede	70.2%	73.0%	57.6%	1.27×	1.37
Defensa y Justicia clean sheet	29.8%	27.0%	42.4%	0.64×	3.70

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia clean sheet in 1st half	61.6%	63.1%	—	—	1.59
Defensa y Justicia to concede in 1st half	38.4%	36.9%	—	—	2.71

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia to concede in 2nd half	51.7%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Defensa y Justicia clean sheet in 2nd half	48.3%	47.5%	—	—	2.10

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia under 6.5 corners	79.0%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Defensa y Justicia over 2.5 corners	78.6%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Defensa y Justicia under 5.5 corners	67.7%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Defensa y Justicia over 3.5 corners	62.9%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Defensa y Justicia under 4.5 corners	53.3%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Defensa y Justicia over 4.5 corners	46.7%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Defensa y Justicia under 3.5 corners	37.1%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Defensa y Justicia over 5.5 corners	32.3%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Defensa y Justicia under 2.5 corners	21.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Defensa y Justicia over 6.5 corners	21.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia under 3.5 goals	95.4%	96.4%	97.1%	0.99×	1.04
Defensa y Justicia under 2.5 goals	85.0%	87.3%	89.9%	0.97×	1.15
Defensa y Justicia over 0.5 goals	73.5%	74.2%	68.2%	1.09×	1.35
Defensa y Justicia under 1.5 goals	61.7%	63.6%	68.2%	0.93×	1.57
Defensa y Justicia over 1.5 goals	38.3%	36.4%	31.8%	1.14×	2.75
Defensa y Justicia under 0.5 goals	26.5%	25.8%	31.8%	0.81×	3.88
Defensa y Justicia over 2.5 goals	15.0%	12.7%	10.1%	1.26×	7.84
Defensa y Justicia over 3.5 goals	4.6%	3.6%	2.9%	1.28×	27.48

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia under 1.5 in 1st half	88.7%	90.1%	—	—	1.11
Defensa y Justicia under 0.5 in 1st half	56.5%	56.2%	—	—	1.78
Defensa y Justicia over 0.5 in 1st half	43.5%	43.8%	—	—	2.29
Defensa y Justicia over 1.5 in 1st half	11.3%	9.9%	—	—	10.14

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia scores equally in both	39.2%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Defensa y Justicia scores more in 2nd half	36.1%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Defensa y Justicia scores more in 1st half	24.7%	21.1%	—	—	4.75

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente (home no bet)	54.5%	51.5%	47.4%	1.09×	1.94
Draw (home no bet)	45.5%	48.5%	52.6%	0.92×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia even goals	53.5%	50.8%	55.6%	0.91×	1.97
Defensa y Justicia odd goals	46.5%	49.2%	44.4%	1.11×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	34.9%	33.6%	—	—	2.98
HT 1-0	19.8%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
HT 0-1	16.8%	18.6%	—	—	5.39
HT 1-1	9.7%	6.9%	—	—	14.51
HT 2-0	5.7%	6.9%	—	—	14.57
HT 0-2	4.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.15
Any other HT score	3.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.20
HT 2-1	2.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.24
HT 1-2	2.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.27
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.38

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia at HT / Defensa y Justicia at FT	22.5%	21.6%	—	—	4.63
Independiente at HT / Independiente at FT	17.6%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	17.5%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Defensa y Justicia at FT	14.3%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Draw at HT / Independiente at FT	13.5%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Defensa y Justicia at HT / Draw at FT	5.5%	6.0%	—	—	16.54
Independiente at HT / Draw at FT	4.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.86
Defensa y Justicia at HT / Independiente at FT	2.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.96
Independiente at HT / Defensa y Justicia at FT	2.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.96

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia to score last	47.9%	46.4%	—	—	2.16
Independiente to score last	43.7%	40.1%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	8.5%	7.6%	—	—	13.15

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	91.6%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Defensa y Justicia to lead by 1 at any time	54.8%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Independiente to lead by 1 at any time	49.9%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	43.0%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Defensa y Justicia to lead by 2 at any time	23.6%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Independiente to lead by 2 at any time	19.6%	14.9%	—	—	6.73
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	14.1%	10.6%	—	—	9.41
Defensa y Justicia to lead by 3 at any time	8.0%	6.7%	—	—	15.01
Independiente to lead by 3 at any time	6.1%	6.6%	—	—	15.10

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente most corners	47.2%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Defensa y Justicia most corners	41.5%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	11.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.1%	87.4%	84.3%	1.04×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.1%	83.4%	79.9%	1.04×	1.20
2-6 goals	71.1%	72.3%	60.7%	1.19×	1.38
2-5 goals	68.2%	68.8%	60.1%	1.15×	1.45
1-3 goals	66.4%	68.8%	71.5%	0.96×	1.45
2-4 goals	61.2%	63.3%	55.8%	1.14×	1.58
2-3 goals	47.6%	48.4%	47.3%	1.02×	2.06
3-6 goals	45.1%	48.4%	33.5%	1.45×	2.06
1-2 goals	44.9%	43.6%	51.4%	0.85×	2.29
3-5 goals	42.2%	43.6%	33.0%	1.32×	2.29
3-4 goals	35.2%	39.2%	28.6%	1.37×	2.55
4-6 goals	23.6%	24.5%	13.5%	1.82×	4.09
4-5 goals	20.6%	24.4%	12.9%	1.90×	4.09
5-6 goals	9.9%	8.9%	5.0%	1.77×	11.24
7+ goals	1.5%	2.6%	0.5%	5.59×	39.20

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia never behind	41.6%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
Independiente never behind	36.8%	44.2%	—	—	2.26

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.5%	50.9%	48.9%	1.04×	1.97
Even number of goals	51.5%	49.1%	51.1%	0.96×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.2%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	43.8%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.0%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.0%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.5%	95.4%	99.0%	0.96×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	91.6%	92.3%	85.2%	1.08×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	88.6%	87.6%	94.6%	0.93×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	74.9%	72.5%	86.2%	0.84×	1.38
Over 1.5 goals	72.7%	72.5%	61.0%	1.19×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	53.3%	52.5%	66.1%	0.79×	1.90
Over 2.5 goals	46.7%	47.5%	33.9%	1.40×	2.11
Under 1.5 goals	27.3%	27.5%	39.0%	0.71×	3.63
Over 3.5 goals	25.1%	27.5%	13.8%	1.99×	3.64
Over 4.5 goals	11.4%	12.4%	5.4%	2.31×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	8.5%	7.7%	14.8%	0.52×	12.93
Over 5.5 goals	4.5%	4.6%	1.0%	4.47×	21.80

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.4%	97.2%	99.5%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.2%	97.2%	98.9%	0.98×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	86.8%	86.7%	94.1%	0.92×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	68.0%	67.5%	82.7%	0.82×	1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	63.1%	61.9%	46.5%	1.33×	1.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	36.9%	38.1%	53.5%	0.71×	2.63
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	32.0%	32.5%	17.3%	1.88×	3.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	13.2%	13.3%	5.9%	2.27×	7.54
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.8%	2.8%	1.1%	2.62×	35.56
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.6%	2.8%	0.5%	6.12×	35.65

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.9%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	71.4%	71.3%	—	—	1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half	65.1%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	34.9%	31.4%	—	—	3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half	28.6%	28.7%	—	—	3.48
Over 2.5 in 1st half	9.1%	7.3%	—	—	13.69

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	81.3%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	77.1%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	56.1%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	43.9%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	22.9%	20.4%	—	—	4.89
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	18.7%	17.1%	—	—	5.85

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente not to score in both halves	80.1%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Defensa y Justicia not to score in both halves	76.9%	78.4%	—	—	1.28
Defensa y Justicia to score in both halves	23.1%	21.6%	—	—	4.64
Independiente to score in both halves	19.9%	15.8%	—	—	6.33

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	52.2%	53.8%	40.6%	1.33×	1.86
Only Defensa y Justicia scores	21.3%	22.2%	27.7%	0.80×	4.50
Only Independiente scores	18.0%	16.0%	17.1%	0.94×	6.23
Neither team scores	8.5%	7.1%	14.8%	0.48×	13.99

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	26.0%	24.9%	27.3%	0.91×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	21.5%	22.6%	20.2%	1.12×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	18.9%	17.5%	24.3%	0.72×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	13.7%	12.1%	8.6%	1.42×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	8.5%	7.6%	14.8%	0.51×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	7.0%	7.6%	4.4%	1.71×	13.14
6 or more goals	4.5%	4.5%	1.0%	4.36×	22.33

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.5%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	34.9%	35.7%	—	—	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	19.5%	15.7%	—	—	6.36
3+ goals in 1st half	9.1%	7.3%	—	—	13.69

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	43.9%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
1 goal in 2nd half	33.2%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	22.9%	22.9%	—	—	4.37

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente not to win both halves	92.5%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Defensa y Justicia not to win both halves	90.2%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Defensa y Justicia to win both halves	9.8%	5.9%	—	—	16.95
Independiente to win both halves	7.5%	5.8%	—	—	17.11

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia to win either half	52.6%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Independiente to win neither half	52.6%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Defensa y Justicia to win neither half	47.4%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Independiente to win either half	47.4%	45.7%	—	—	2.19

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente not to win to nil	82.0%	83.1%	82.9%	1.00×	1.20
Defensa y Justicia not to win to nil	78.7%	78.1%	72.3%	1.08×	1.28
Defensa y Justicia to win to nil	21.3%	21.9%	27.7%	0.79×	4.58
Independiente to win to nil	18.0%	16.9%	17.1%	0.99×	5.91

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	27.8%	27.9%	30.7%	0.91×	3.59
Defensa y Justicia by 1	20.9%	24.1%	24.3%	0.99×	4.15
Independiente by 1	19.0%	17.1%	18.6%	0.92×	5.86
Defensa y Justicia by 2	11.5%	11.8%	12.8%	0.92×	8.51
Independiente by 2	9.6%	7.2%	6.3%	1.15×	13.90
Defensa y Justicia by 3+	6.4%	7.2%	5.0%	1.43×	13.91
Independiente by 3+	4.7%	2.7%	3.0%	0.92×	36.83