Deportivo Cali v Atlético Junior — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 19 October 2026 · COL-Primera A · 2627
COL-Primera A
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (5,276 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 14.4%
- 1-0 11.8%
- 0-0 11.8%
- 0-1 9.5%
- 2-1 8.2%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 39.0% | Under 2.5 | 61.0% |
| BTTS yes | 46.4% | BTTS no | 53.6% |
| Deportivo Cali 1+ | 70.9% | Deportivo Cali 2+ | 35.0% |
| Atlético Junior 1+ | 63.8% | Atlético Junior 2+ | 27.0% |
Expected goals 1.23 – 1.02. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Nothing in the data singles out Deportivo Cali.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Deportivo Cali have an estimated 38.9% win probability, against 32.7% for the draw and 28.3% for Atlético Junior. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.23 for Deportivo Cali and 1.01 for Atlético Junior.
Why Deportivo Cali
Nothing in the data singles out Deportivo Cali.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 32.7%. A combined 2.25 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.23 to 1.01. Draws run at 29% in this competition.
Why Atlético Junior can win
Atlético Junior carry the stronger rating, 1549 Elo against 1504.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Deportivo Cali, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Atlético Junior, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Deportivo Cali: 51% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 11.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Atlético Junior: 53% possession, 13.8 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Deportivo Cali are the model's most likely outcome at 38.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.4%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 1.14–0.99 | 1-1 15% | 36% | 44% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.