Deportivo Moquegua v Atlético Grau — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 14 November 2026 · PER-Liga 1 · 2627

PER-Liga 1 results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Deportivo Moquegua

20:00 UTC

Atlético Grau

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 26 Oct, 10:59 · 465h before kick-off

Deportivo Moquegua win

39.1%

model 39.1%

Draw

30.4%

model 30.2%

Atlético Grau win

30.5%

model 30.7%

393030

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 15.6%
0-0 13.8%
0-1 13.3%
1-1 12.9%
2-0 7.9%

Goals

Over 2.5	30.8%	Under 2.5	69.2%
BTTS yes	37.8%	BTTS no	62.2%
Deportivo Moquegua 1+	65.0%	Deportivo Moquegua 2+	28.3%
Atlético Grau 1+	59.0%	Atlético Grau 2+	22.5%

Expected goals 1.05 – 0.89. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

78/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Under 2 (void on exactly 2)

Over/Under (whole line) · usually 35%

55.9% fair odds 1.79

strong signal · 764 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Atlético Grau not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 828 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Deportivo Moquegua.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Deportivo Moquegua have an estimated 39.1% win probability, against 30.5% for Atlético Grau and 30.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.05 for Deportivo Moquegua and 0.89 for Atlético Grau.

Why Deportivo Moquegua

Nothing in the data singles out Deportivo Moquegua.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 30.4%. A combined 1.94 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.05 to 0.89. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Atlético Grau can win

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Deportivo Moquegua, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Atlético Grau, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Deportivo Moquegua: 41% possession, 9.0 shots a match, 19.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Atlético Grau: 44% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 16.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Deportivo Moquegua are the model's most likely outcome at 39.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 15.6%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	393031	1.05–0.89	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	373429	0.89–0.75	0-0 19%	23%	31%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Moquegua to win	37.1%	36.3%	49.8%	0.73×	2.75
Draw	33.6%	30.4%	25.0%	1.22×	3.29
Atlético Grau to win	29.3%	27.9%	25.4%	1.10×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Moquegua & not both score	28.3%	25.2%	26.4%	0.95×	3.97
Atlético Grau & not both score	22.2%	21.8%	12.3%	1.77×	4.59
Draw & not both score	18.8%	18.0%	7.8%	2.31×	5.56
Draw & both teams score	14.8%	13.3%	17.4%	0.76×	7.54
Deportivo Moquegua & both teams score	8.8%	8.3%	23.6%	0.35×	12.00
Atlético Grau & both teams score	7.1%	8.3%	13.2%	0.63×	12.00

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Moquegua & under 3.5	33.5%	30.8%	33.7%	0.91×	3.25
Draw & under 2.5	31.2%	30.7%	18.8%	1.63×	3.25
Draw & under 3.5	31.2%	30.7%	18.8%	1.63×	3.25
Atlético Grau & under 3.5	26.8%	26.1%	19.4%	1.34×	3.84
Deportivo Moquegua & under 2.5	25.4%	26.0%	19.2%	1.36×	3.84
Atlético Grau & under 2.5	20.5%	21.6%	11.1%	1.96×	4.63
Deportivo Moquegua & over 1.5	19.4%	18.0%	38.0%	0.47×	5.55
Draw & under 1.5	18.8%	18.0%	7.8%	2.31×	5.55
Deportivo Moquegua & under 1.5	17.7%	18.0%	12.0%	1.51×	5.55
Atlético Grau & under 1.5	15.1%	18.0%	8.2%	2.21×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	14.8%	12.8%	17.4%	0.74×	7.79
Atlético Grau & over 1.5	14.3%	12.8%	17.4%	0.74×	7.79
Deportivo Moquegua & over 2.5	11.7%	12.8%	30.8%	0.42×	7.79
Atlético Grau & over 2.5	8.8%	7.9%	14.5%	0.55×	12.63
Deportivo Moquegua & over 3.5	3.7%	4.8%	16.3%	0.29×	20.82
Draw & over 2.5	2.4%	4.8%	6.3%	0.76×	20.83
Draw & over 3.5	2.4%	4.8%	6.3%	0.76×	20.83
Atlético Grau & over 3.5	2.5%	4.8%	6.2%	0.78×	20.83

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Moquegua (1UP)	47.3%	43.8%	—	—	2.28
Atlético Grau (1UP)	40.0%	34.5%	—	—	2.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Moquegua (2UP)	37.1%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Atlético Grau (2UP)	29.3%	25.3%	—	—	3.95

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	47.2%	45.2%	—	—	2.22
Deportivo Moquegua to win 2nd half	28.3%	26.1%	—	—	3.83
Atlético Grau to win 2nd half	24.5%	24.4%	—	—	4.10

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Grau under 1.5 in 2nd half	92.4%	91.8%	—	—	1.09
Atlético Grau under 0.5 in 2nd half	63.6%	60.4%	—	—	1.66
Atlético Grau over 0.5 in 2nd half	36.4%	39.6%	—	—	2.52
Atlético Grau over 1.5 in 2nd half	7.6%	8.2%	—	—	12.13

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Moquegua under 1.5 in 2nd half	90.7%	93.7%	—	—	1.07
Deportivo Moquegua under 0.5 in 2nd half	60.1%	63.0%	—	—	1.59
Deportivo Moquegua over 0.5 in 2nd half	39.9%	37.0%	—	—	2.70
Deportivo Moquegua over 1.5 in 2nd half	9.3%	6.3%	—	—	15.95

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Grau (+2.5)	96.6%	96.3%	88.6%	1.09×	1.04
Atlético Grau (+1.5)	87.1%	88.5%	75.4%	1.17×	1.13
Deportivo Moquegua (+0.5)	70.7%	73.6%	74.6%	0.99×	1.36
Atlético Grau (+0.5)	62.9%	62.9%	50.2%	1.25×	1.59
Deportivo Moquegua (-0.5)	37.1%	37.1%	49.8%	0.74×	2.70
Atlético Grau (-0.5)	29.3%	26.4%	25.4%	1.04×	3.79
Deportivo Moquegua (-1.5)	12.9%	11.5%	24.6%	0.47×	8.67
Deportivo Moquegua (-2.5)	3.4%	3.7%	11.4%	0.32×	27.12

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Grau to concede	59.0%	62.5%	80.1%	0.78×	1.60
Atlético Grau clean sheet	41.0%	37.5%	19.9%	1.88×	2.67

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Grau clean sheet in 1st half	68.1%	71.4%	—	—	1.40
Atlético Grau to concede in 1st half	31.9%	28.6%	—	—	3.50

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Grau clean sheet in 2nd half	60.1%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Atlético Grau to concede in 2nd half	39.9%	38.3%	—	—	2.61

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Grau under 6.5 corners	86.4%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Atlético Grau under 5.5 corners	77.4%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Atlético Grau over 2.5 corners	69.7%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Atlético Grau under 4.5 corners	64.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Atlético Grau over 3.5 corners	51.8%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Atlético Grau under 3.5 corners	48.2%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Atlético Grau over 4.5 corners	35.5%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Atlético Grau under 2.5 corners	30.3%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Atlético Grau over 5.5 corners	22.6%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Atlético Grau over 6.5 corners	13.6%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Grau under 3.5 goals	99.3%	97.5%	97.5%	1.00×	1.03
Atlético Grau under 2.5 goals	95.9%	97.5%	92.0%	1.06×	1.03
Atlético Grau under 1.5 goals	82.5%	81.5%	71.6%	1.14×	1.23
Atlético Grau over 0.5 goals	53.0%	53.5%	65.9%	0.81×	1.87
Atlético Grau under 0.5 goals	47.0%	46.5%	34.1%	1.36×	2.15
Atlético Grau over 1.5 goals	17.5%	18.5%	28.4%	0.65×	5.41
Atlético Grau over 2.5 goals	4.1%	2.5%	8.0%	0.32×	39.76
Atlético Grau over 3.5 goals	0.7%	2.5%	2.5%	0.99×	39.93

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Grau under 1.5 in 1st half	96.3%	96.1%	—	—	1.04
Atlético Grau under 0.5 in 1st half	74.0%	68.2%	—	—	1.47
Atlético Grau over 0.5 in 1st half	26.0%	31.8%	—	—	3.14
Atlético Grau over 1.5 in 1st half	3.7%	3.9%	—	—	25.58

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Grau scores equally in both	53.7%	51.4%	—	—	1.95
Atlético Grau scores more in 2nd half	28.7%	26.6%	—	—	3.77
Atlético Grau scores more in 1st half	17.7%	18.0%	—	—	5.54

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Moquegua (away no bet)	52.5%	51.7%	66.6%	0.78×	1.94
Draw (away no bet)	47.5%	48.3%	33.4%	1.45×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Grau even goals	61.1%	59.1%	56.9%	1.04×	1.69
Atlético Grau odd goals	38.9%	40.9%	43.1%	0.95×	2.44

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	96.2%	96.3%	—	—	1.04
Both halves over 1.5 goals	3.8%	3.7%	—	—	27.23

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	64.0%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Not both halves under 1.5	36.0%	42.4%	—	—	2.36

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	31.6%	28.9%	—	—	3.46
Deportivo Moquegua to score 2+ in a row	18.9%	16.2%	—	—	6.18
Atlético Grau to score 2+ in a row	14.1%	12.2%	—	—	8.20
Either team to score 3+ in a row	7.3%	5.5%	—	—	18.18
Deportivo Moquegua to score 3+ in a row	4.5%	2.6%	—	—	38.24
Atlético Grau to score 3+ in a row	2.8%	2.5%	—	—	39.23

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Grau corners (+3.5)	88.2%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Deportivo Moquegua corners (+3.5)	85.0%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Atlético Grau corners (+2.5)	81.0%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Deportivo Moquegua corners (+2.5)	76.7%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Atlético Grau corners (+1.5)	71.2%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Deportivo Moquegua corners (+1.5)	66.0%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Atlético Grau corners (-1.5)	34.0%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Deportivo Moquegua corners (-1.5)	28.8%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Atlético Grau corners (-2.5)	23.3%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Deportivo Moquegua corners (-2.5)	19.0%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Atlético Grau corners (-3.5)	15.0%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Deportivo Moquegua corners (-3.5)	11.8%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	64.3%	48.5%	—	—	2.06
9-11 corners	23.8%	25.7%	—	—	3.90
12+ corners	11.9%	21.1%	—	—	4.74

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	92.4%	83.4%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	88.1%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 10.5 corners	82.1%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 9.5 corners	74.2%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 8.5 corners	64.3%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 7.5 corners	52.7%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 7.5 corners	47.3%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 8.5 corners	35.7%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 9.5 corners	25.8%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 10.5 corners	17.9%	19.3%	—	—	5.17
Over 11.5 corners	11.9%	16.9%	—	—	5.91
Over 12.5 corners	7.7%	16.6%	—	—	6.04

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-0	18.8%	13.8%	7.8%	1.78×	7.22
1-0	17.7%	13.8%	12.0%	1.16×	7.23
0-1	15.1%	13.8%	8.2%	1.69×	7.24
1-1	12.5%	11.5%	11.2%	1.02×	8.71
2-0	7.7%	7.4%	7.4%	1.00×	13.51
0-2	5.5%	7.4%	3.1%	2.40×	13.51
2-1	5.8%	7.4%	9.8%	0.76×	13.51
1-2	4.9%	1.7%	7.6%	0.23×	58.29
0-3	1.4%	1.7%	1.1%	1.58×	58.31
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.5%	3.16×	58.32
1-3	1.2%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.31
1-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.9%	1.89×	58.32
2-2	2.2%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.31
2-3	0.5%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.32
2-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.9%	1.89×	58.32
3-0	2.3%	1.7%	5.1%	0.34×	58.31
3-1	1.7%	1.7%	5.3%	0.33×	58.31
3-2	0.6%	1.7%	3.8%	0.45×	58.32
3-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.9%	1.89×	58.32
3-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.7%	2.37×	58.32
4-0	0.5%	1.7%	1.6%	1.05×	58.32
4-1	0.4%	1.7%	2.5%	0.68×	58.32
4-2	0.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.58×	58.32
4-3	0.0%	1.7%	0.4%	4.73×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	9.47×	58.32
Any other score	0.3%	1.7%	2.7%	0.63×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Moquegua (2nd half DNB)	53.6%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Atlético Grau (2nd half DNB)	46.4%	45.3%	—	—	2.21

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Moquegua leading at HT (DNB)	57.0%	55.5%	—	—	1.80
Atlético Grau leading at HT (DNB)	43.0%	44.5%	—	—	2.25

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Moquegua or draw (1X)	70.7%	72.1%	74.6%	0.97×	1.39
Deportivo Moquegua or Atlético Grau (12)	66.4%	69.6%	75.0%	0.93×	1.44
Atlético Grau or draw (X2)	62.9%	63.7%	50.2%	1.27×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Moquegua or draw at HT	81.2%	84.0%	—	—	1.19
Atlético Grau or draw at HT	75.0%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Deportivo Moquegua or Atlético Grau at HT	43.8%	43.4%	—	—	2.30

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Moquegua or draw (1UP)	70.7%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Atlético Grau or draw (1UP)	62.9%	71.6%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Moquegua or draw in 2nd half	75.5%	75.6%	—	—	1.32
Atlético Grau or draw in 2nd half	71.7%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Deportivo Moquegua or Atlético Grau in 2nd half	52.8%	54.9%	—	—	1.82

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	77.4%	77.9%	—	—	1.28
Neither half drawn	22.6%	22.1%	—	—	4.54

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Moquegua (DNB)	55.9%	58.1%	66.3%	0.88×	1.72
Atlético Grau (DNB)	44.1%	41.9%	33.7%	1.24×	2.38

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Moquegua to score first	44.0%	41.8%	—	—	2.40
Atlético Grau to score first	37.2%	32.7%	—	—	3.06
No goal scored	18.8%	18.4%	—	—	5.45

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	69.3%	58.5%	46.2%	1.27×	1.71
Both teams to score	30.7%	41.5%	53.8%	0.77×	2.41

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	64.7%	50.6%	37.7%	1.34×	1.98
Both score & over 2.5	18.3%	21.5%	42.8%	0.50×	4.65
Both score & under 2.5	12.5%	12.4%	11.2%	1.10×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	4.6%	4.7%	8.7%	0.55×	21.09

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	96.1%	91.6%	85.7%	1.07×	1.09
Both teams to score 2+	3.9%	8.4%	14.3%	0.59×	11.91

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	85.7%	86.0%	—	—	1.16
Both teams to score in 2nd half	14.3%	14.0%	—	—	7.15

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	78.7%	76.8%	—	—	1.30
Both score 2nd half only	13.1%	10.8%	—	—	9.29
Both score 1st half only	7.0%	6.8%	—	—	14.75
Both score in both halves	1.2%	4.8%	—	—	20.95

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	91.8%	92.0%	—	—	1.09
Both teams to score by HT	8.2%	8.0%	—	—	12.49

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	69.6%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
A goal in each half	30.4%	34.2%	—	—	2.92

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1 goals	51.5%	41.3%	27.5%	1.50×	2.42
2-3 goals	39.9%	35.1%	44.2%	0.79×	2.85
4-6 goals	8.4%	7.6%	26.8%	0.29×	13.09
7+ goals	0.2%	1.8%	1.8%	1.01×	54.55

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Grau to score exactly 0	47.0%	42.9%	34.1%	1.26×	2.33
Atlético Grau to score exactly 1	35.5%	35.9%	37.7%	0.95×	2.78
Atlético Grau to score exactly 2	13.4%	12.9%	20.7%	0.62×	7.76
Atlético Grau to score 3+	4.1%	4.6%	8.0%	0.58×	21.80

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Moquegua to score exactly 1	36.6%	35.5%	33.0%	1.08×	2.81
Deportivo Moquegua to score exactly 0	41.0%	35.1%	19.9%	1.76×	2.85
Deportivo Moquegua to score exactly 2	16.3%	18.8%	25.0%	0.75×	5.32
Deportivo Moquegua to score 3+	6.2%	10.3%	22.5%	0.46×	9.68

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	56.2%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Deportivo Moquegua leading at HT	25.0%	20.5%	—	—	4.87
Atlético Grau leading at HT	18.8%	16.0%	—	—	6.24

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Moquegua -1: 2	62.9%	62.6%	—	—	1.60
Deportivo Moquegua -1: X	24.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Deportivo Moquegua -1: 1	12.9%	13.9%	—	—	7.17

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Grau (0:1)	62.9%	61.5%	50.2%	1.22×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	24.2%	24.2%	25.4%	0.96×	4.13
Deportivo Moquegua (0:1)	12.9%	13.7%	24.6%	0.56×	7.30

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Grau (0:2)	87.1%	87.1%	75.4%	1.16×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	9.5%	7.7%	13.4%	0.57×	13.04
Deportivo Moquegua (0:2)	3.4%	3.7%	11.4%	0.33×	26.70

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Grau (0:3)	96.6%	96.6%	88.6%	1.09×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.7%	2.4%	7.6%	0.31×	42.02
Deportivo Moquegua (0:3)	0.7%	2.4%	4.0%	0.60×	42.11

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Grau (0:4)	99.3%	98.1%	96.0%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	2.5%	0.48×	81.84
Deportivo Moquegua (0:4)	0.1%	1.2%	1.6%	0.75×	81.89

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Moquegua (1:0)	70.7%	72.4%	74.6%	0.97×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	20.5%	21.7%	17.9%	1.21×	4.62
Atlético Grau (1:0)	8.8%	6.9%	7.6%	0.91×	14.47

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Moquegua (2:0)	91.2%	94.0%	92.4%	1.02×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	6.8%	6.4%	5.6%	1.14×	15.66
Atlético Grau (2:0)	2.0%	2.3%	2.2%	1.05×	43.80

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	41.1%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
Halves equal	33.5%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
1st half highest scoring	25.5%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Moquegua to concede	53.0%	53.2%	65.9%	0.81×	1.88
Deportivo Moquegua clean sheet	47.0%	46.8%	34.1%	1.38×	2.14

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Moquegua clean sheet in 1st half	74.0%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Deportivo Moquegua to concede in 1st half	26.0%	32.8%	—	—	3.05

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Moquegua clean sheet in 2nd half	63.6%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Deportivo Moquegua to concede in 2nd half	36.4%	40.1%	—	—	2.49

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Moquegua under 6.5 corners	88.9%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Deportivo Moquegua under 5.5 corners	80.7%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Deportivo Moquegua under 4.5 corners	68.5%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Deportivo Moquegua over 2.5 corners	66.2%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Deportivo Moquegua under 3.5 corners	52.3%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Deportivo Moquegua over 3.5 corners	47.7%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Deportivo Moquegua under 2.5 corners	33.8%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Deportivo Moquegua over 4.5 corners	31.5%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Deportivo Moquegua over 5.5 corners	19.3%	19.0%	—	—	5.26
Deportivo Moquegua over 6.5 corners	11.1%	13.8%	—	—	7.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Moquegua under 3.5 goals	98.7%	96.4%	92.4%	1.04×	1.04
Deportivo Moquegua under 2.5 goals	93.8%	92.2%	77.5%	1.19×	1.08
Deportivo Moquegua under 1.5 goals	77.5%	77.8%	52.7%	1.48×	1.29
Deportivo Moquegua over 0.5 goals	59.0%	58.7%	80.1%	0.73×	1.71
Deportivo Moquegua under 0.5 goals	41.0%	41.3%	19.9%	2.07×	2.42
Deportivo Moquegua over 1.5 goals	22.5%	22.2%	47.3%	0.47×	4.50
Deportivo Moquegua over 2.5 goals	6.2%	7.8%	22.5%	0.35×	12.85
Deportivo Moquegua over 3.5 goals	1.3%	3.6%	7.6%	0.48×	27.63

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Moquegua under 1.5 in 1st half	94.3%	94.9%	—	—	1.05
Deportivo Moquegua under 0.5 in 1st half	68.1%	69.5%	—	—	1.44
Deportivo Moquegua over 0.5 in 1st half	31.9%	30.5%	—	—	3.28
Deportivo Moquegua over 1.5 in 1st half	5.7%	5.1%	—	—	19.59

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Moquegua scores equally in both	49.4%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Deportivo Moquegua scores more in 2nd half	29.7%	27.9%	—	—	3.59
Deportivo Moquegua scores more in 1st half	21.0%	21.0%	—	—	4.76

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	53.4%	51.5%	49.6%	1.04×	1.94
Atlético Grau (home no bet)	46.6%	48.5%	50.4%	0.96×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Moquegua even goals	58.4%	55.3%	50.5%	1.09×	1.81
Deportivo Moquegua odd goals	41.6%	44.7%	49.5%	0.90×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	50.3%	49.1%	—	—	2.04
HT 1-0	19.4%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
HT 0-1	15.3%	18.5%	—	—	5.40
HT 1-1	5.7%	6.9%	—	—	14.57
HT 2-0	3.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.16
HT 0-2	2.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.25
HT 1-2	0.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.35
HT 2-1	1.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.33
Any other HT score	1.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.33
HT 2-2	0.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.39

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	26.1%	27.2%	—	—	3.67
Deportivo Moquegua at HT / Deportivo Moquegua at FT	19.9%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Draw at HT / Deportivo Moquegua at FT	16.2%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Atlético Grau at HT / Atlético Grau at FT	14.3%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Draw at HT / Atlético Grau at FT	14.0%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Deportivo Moquegua at HT / Draw at FT	4.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.87
Atlético Grau at HT / Draw at FT	3.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.89
Deportivo Moquegua at HT / Atlético Grau at FT	1.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.98
Atlético Grau at HT / Deportivo Moquegua at FT	1.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.98

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Moquegua to score last	44.0%	40.1%	—	—	2.49
Atlético Grau to score last	37.2%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
No goal scored	18.8%	14.4%	—	—	6.95

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	81.2%	87.4%	—	—	1.14
Deportivo Moquegua to lead by 1 at any time	47.3%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
Atlético Grau to lead by 1 at any time	40.0%	34.9%	—	—	2.86
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	26.9%	25.3%	—	—	3.96
Deportivo Moquegua to lead by 2 at any time	15.7%	14.8%	—	—	6.76
Atlético Grau to lead by 2 at any time	11.2%	10.6%	—	—	9.45
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	6.4%	6.6%	—	—	15.09
Deportivo Moquegua to lead by 3 at any time	4.0%	1.6%	—	—	61.40
Atlético Grau to lead by 3 at any time	2.4%	1.6%	—	—	62.89

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Grau most corners	46.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Deportivo Moquegua most corners	40.7%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	12.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	80.5%	83.4%	87.1%	0.96×	1.20
1-4 goals	78.6%	78.7%	78.1%	1.01×	1.27
1-3 goals	72.7%	72.3%	63.9%	1.13×	1.38
1-2 goals	58.4%	59.1%	41.1%	1.44×	1.69
2-6 goals	48.3%	48.4%	70.8%	0.68×	2.06
2-5 goals	47.8%	48.4%	67.4%	0.72×	2.06
2-4 goals	45.8%	48.4%	58.3%	0.83×	2.06
2-3 goals	39.9%	39.2%	44.2%	0.89×	2.55
3-6 goals	22.7%	24.5%	49.6%	0.49×	4.09
3-5 goals	22.2%	24.5%	46.2%	0.53×	4.09
3-4 goals	20.2%	24.4%	37.1%	0.66×	4.09
4-6 goals	8.4%	8.9%	26.8%	0.33×	11.25
4-5 goals	7.8%	8.9%	23.4%	0.38×	11.26
5-6 goals	2.5%	2.6%	12.7%	0.20×	39.16
7+ goals	0.2%	2.5%	1.8%	1.41×	39.26

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportivo Moquegua never behind	41.2%	48.7%	—	—	2.06
Atlético Grau never behind	34.0%	36.4%	—	—	2.75

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.2%	50.9%	53.3%	0.96×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.8%	49.1%	46.7%	1.05×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	62.5%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Odd goals in 1st half	37.5%	40.0%	—	—	2.50

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	57.0%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Odd goals in 2nd half	43.0%	40.0%	—	—	2.50

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	99.3%	95.4%	94.7%	1.01×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	97.4%	95.4%	85.7%	1.11×	1.05
Under 3.5 goals	91.5%	92.3%	71.6%	1.29×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	81.2%	82.3%	92.2%	0.89×	1.22
Under 2.5 goals	77.1%	77.3%	48.7%	1.59×	1.29
Under 1.5 goals	51.5%	52.5%	27.5%	1.91×	1.90
Over 1.5 goals	48.5%	47.5%	72.5%	0.66×	2.11
Over 2.5 goals	22.9%	22.7%	51.3%	0.44×	4.40
Under 0.5 goals	18.8%	17.7%	7.8%	2.27×	5.65
Over 3.5 goals	8.5%	7.7%	28.4%	0.27×	12.93
Over 4.5 goals	2.6%	4.6%	14.3%	0.32×	21.83
Over 5.5 goals	0.7%	4.6%	5.3%	0.87×	21.87

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.8%	97.2%	98.1%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	99.3%	97.2%	94.2%	1.03×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	97.2%	97.2%	83.3%	1.17×	1.03
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	90.0%	92.4%	63.1%	1.46×	1.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	69.3%	67.5%	34.9%	1.93×	1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	30.7%	32.5%	65.1%	0.50×	3.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	10.0%	7.6%	36.9%	0.21×	13.17
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	2.8%	2.8%	16.7%	0.17×	35.60
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	0.7%	2.8%	5.8%	0.49×	35.66
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.2%	2.8%	1.9%	1.49×	35.68

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	96.8%	97.4%	—	—	1.03
Under 1.5 in 1st half	85.0%	88.9%	—	—	1.12
Under 0.5 in 1st half	50.3%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 0.5 in 1st half	49.7%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 1.5 in 1st half	15.0%	11.1%	—	—	9.04
Over 2.5 in 1st half	3.2%	2.6%	—	—	37.85

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	92.7%	90.5%	—	—	1.11
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	75.2%	79.4%	—	—	1.26
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	61.9%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	38.1%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	24.8%	20.6%	—	—	4.86
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	7.3%	9.5%	—	—	10.52

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Grau not to score in both halves	90.5%	90.1%	—	—	1.11
Deportivo Moquegua not to score in both halves	87.3%	85.6%	—	—	1.17
Deportivo Moquegua to score in both halves	12.7%	14.4%	—	—	6.94
Atlético Grau to score in both halves	9.5%	9.9%	—	—	10.13

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	30.7%	33.3%	53.8%	0.62×	3.01
Only Deportivo Moquegua scores	28.3%	26.1%	26.4%	0.99×	3.84
Only Atlético Grau scores	22.2%	22.2%	12.3%	1.81×	4.50
Neither team scores	18.8%	16.0%	7.8%	2.06×	6.23

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 1 goals	32.8%	25.5%	19.9%	1.28×	3.93
Exactly 2 goals	25.6%	24.9%	21.4%	1.16×	4.02
Exactly 0 goals	18.8%	17.5%	7.8%	2.24×	5.73
Exactly 3 goals	14.3%	12.1%	23.0%	0.53×	8.25
Exactly 4 goals	5.9%	7.6%	14.3%	0.53×	13.14
Exactly 5 goals	1.9%	4.5%	9.2%	0.48×	22.37
6 or more goals	0.7%	4.5%	5.3%	0.85×	22.39

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	50.3%	49.1%	—	—	2.04
1 goal in 1st half	34.7%	35.8%	—	—	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	11.7%	10.9%	—	—	9.21
3+ goals in 1st half	3.2%	2.6%	—	—	37.85

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 2nd half	38.1%	39.8%	—	—	2.51
1 goal in 2nd half	37.1%	39.7%	—	—	2.52
2+ goals in 2nd half	24.8%	23.0%	—	—	4.34

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Grau not to win both halves	95.4%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Deportivo Moquegua not to win both halves	93.0%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Deportivo Moquegua to win both halves	7.0%	5.8%	—	—	17.15
Atlético Grau to win both halves	4.6%	2.8%	—	—	35.35

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Grau to win neither half	61.3%	64.9%	—	—	1.54
Deportivo Moquegua to win neither half	53.7%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Deportivo Moquegua to win either half	46.3%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
Atlético Grau to win either half	38.8%	35.1%	—	—	2.85

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Grau not to win to nil	77.8%	78.1%	87.7%	0.89×	1.28
Deportivo Moquegua not to win to nil	71.7%	75.3%	73.6%	1.02×	1.33
Deportivo Moquegua to win to nil	28.3%	24.7%	26.4%	0.93×	4.05
Atlético Grau to win to nil	22.2%	21.9%	12.3%	1.78×	4.57

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	33.6%	27.7%	25.0%	1.11×	3.61
Deportivo Moquegua by 1	24.2%	24.1%	25.4%	0.95×	4.15
Atlético Grau by 1	20.5%	24.1%	17.9%	1.34×	4.15
Deportivo Moquegua by 2	9.5%	7.2%	13.4%	0.54×	13.90
Atlético Grau by 2	6.8%	7.2%	5.6%	1.28×	13.91
Deportivo Moquegua by 3+	3.4%	2.7%	11.4%	0.24×	36.87
Atlético Grau by 3+	2.0%	2.7%	2.2%	1.25×	36.91