Derby County v Bolton Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 6 November 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627
Championship
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 14.1%
- 1-0 10.1%
- 0-0 9.6%
- 2-1 9.0%
- 2-0 8.3%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 45.8% | Under 2.5 | 54.2% |
| BTTS yes | 51.8% | BTTS no | 48.2% |
| Derby County 1+ | 76.0% | Derby County 2+ | 41.7% |
| Bolton Wanderers 1+ | 66.1% | Bolton Wanderers 2+ | 29.5% |
Expected goals 1.43 – 1.08. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Nothing in the data singles out Derby County.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Bolton Wanderers have only 6 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Derby County have an estimated 43.4% win probability, against 29.5% for the draw and 27.1% for Bolton Wanderers. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.43 for Derby County and 1.08 for Bolton Wanderers.
Why Derby County
Nothing in the data singles out Derby County.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 29.5%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.
Why Bolton Wanderers can win
Bolton Wanderers carry the stronger rating, 1464 Elo against 1427.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Derby County, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Bolton Wanderers, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Derby County: 49% possession, 12.4 shots a match, 16.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Bolton Wanderers: 51% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Derby County are the model's most likely outcome at 43.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.1%. Confidence 41/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.43–1.08 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.37–1.00 | 1-1 14% | 42% | 49% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.