Derby County v Norwich City — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 3 November 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Derby County

19:45 UTC

Norwich City

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 26 Oct, 10:59 · 201h before kick-off

Derby County win

36.6%

model 35.3%

Draw

26.7%

model 27.9%

Norwich City win

36.7%

model 36.9%

372737

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.2%
1-2 8.5%
2-1 8.3%
0-0 7.2%
0-1 7.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	54.1%	Under 2.5	45.9%
BTTS yes	59.0%	BTTS no	41.0%
Derby County 1+	75.4%	Derby County 2+	41.0%
Norwich City 1+	76.3%	Norwich City 2+	42.2%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.44. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

48/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

3-6 goals

Multi goal · usually 47%

52.2% fair odds 1.91

moderate signal · 1994 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Norwich City (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 81%

83.7% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Norwich City carry the stronger rating, 1491 Elo against 1427.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Norwich City have an estimated 36.7% win probability, against 36.6% for Derby County and 26.7% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.40 for Derby County and 1.44 for Norwich City.

Why Derby County

Nothing in the data singles out Derby County.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.7%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.40 to 1.44. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Norwich City can win

Norwich City carry the stronger rating, 1491 Elo against 1427.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Derby County, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Norwich City, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Derby County: 49% possession, 12.4 shots a match, 16.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Norwich City: 52% possession, 15.6 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Norwich City are the model's most likely outcome at 36.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.2%. Confidence 48/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

333 sports channels, playing now →

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	352837	1.40–1.44	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	372835	1.40–1.35	1-1 14%	52%	57%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County to win	36.8%	36.3%	43.4%	0.84×	2.75
Norwich City to win	34.7%	30.4%	29.1%	1.05×	3.29
Draw	28.5%	27.9%	27.6%	1.01×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw & both teams score	20.6%	21.8%	20.4%	1.07×	4.59
Derby County & both teams score	18.7%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.56
Derby County & not both score	18.0%	18.0%	23.3%	0.77×	5.56
Norwich City & both teams score	17.8%	18.0%	13.9%	1.29×	5.56
Norwich City & not both score	16.9%	18.0%	15.2%	1.18×	5.57
Draw & not both score	7.9%	8.3%	7.3%	1.14×	12.00

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County & over 1.5	29.3%	26.1%	32.5%	0.80×	3.84
Norwich City & over 1.5	27.5%	26.1%	21.4%	1.22×	3.84
Derby County & under 3.5	25.1%	26.0%	32.4%	0.80×	3.84
Norwich City & under 3.5	23.9%	21.6%	22.3%	0.97×	4.63
Derby County & over 2.5	23.0%	21.6%	26.4%	0.82×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	21.4%	21.6%	21.8%	0.99×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	21.4%	21.6%	21.8%	0.99×	4.63
Norwich City & over 2.5	21.7%	21.6%	16.2%	1.33×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	20.6%	21.6%	20.4%	1.06×	4.63
Derby County & under 2.5	13.8%	12.8%	17.1%	0.75×	7.79
Norwich City & under 2.5	13.1%	12.8%	12.9%	0.99×	7.79
Derby County & over 3.5	11.7%	12.8%	11.1%	1.15×	7.79
Norwich City & over 3.5	10.9%	12.8%	6.8%	1.89×	7.79
Derby County & under 1.5	7.5%	7.9%	11.0%	0.72×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	7.9%	7.9%	7.3%	1.08×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	7.0%	7.9%	5.9%	1.33×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	7.0%	7.9%	5.9%	1.33×	12.63
Norwich City & under 1.5	7.2%	7.9%	7.7%	1.02×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County (1UP)	54.4%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Norwich City (1UP)	52.6%	52.4%	—	—	1.91

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County (2UP)	36.8%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Norwich City (2UP)	34.7%	30.4%	—	—	3.29

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	36.3%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Norwich City to win 2nd half	32.3%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
Derby County to win 2nd half	31.4%	34.0%	—	—	2.94

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City under 1.5 in 2nd half	80.5%	84.0%	—	—	1.19
Norwich City over 0.5 in 2nd half	55.5%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Norwich City under 0.5 in 2nd half	44.5%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Norwich City over 1.5 in 2nd half	19.5%	16.0%	—	—	6.24

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County under 1.5 in 2nd half	81.1%	82.3%	—	—	1.22
Derby County over 0.5 in 2nd half	54.8%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Derby County under 0.5 in 2nd half	45.2%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
Derby County over 1.5 in 2nd half	18.9%	17.7%	—	—	5.66

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City (+2.5)	93.5%	92.1%	91.9%	1.00×	1.09
Norwich City (+1.5)	82.3%	82.6%	80.7%	1.02×	1.21
Derby County (+0.5)	65.3%	68.7%	70.9%	0.97×	1.46
Norwich City (+0.5)	63.2%	62.9%	56.6%	1.11×	1.59
Derby County (-0.5)	36.8%	37.1%	43.4%	0.85×	2.70
Norwich City (-0.5)	34.7%	31.3%	29.1%	1.08×	3.19
Derby County (-1.5)	17.7%	17.4%	19.3%	0.90×	5.74
Derby County (-2.5)	6.5%	7.9%	8.1%	0.97×	12.71

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City to concede	75.2%	78.7%	77.6%	1.01×	1.27
Norwich City clean sheet	24.8%	21.3%	22.4%	0.95×	4.70

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City clean sheet in 1st half	54.9%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
Norwich City to concede in 1st half	45.1%	49.0%	—	—	2.04

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City to concede in 2nd half	54.8%	54.5%	—	—	1.83
Norwich City clean sheet in 2nd half	45.2%	45.5%	—	—	2.20

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City over 2.5 corners	83.3%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Norwich City over 3.5 corners	71.8%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Norwich City under 6.5 corners	63.7%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Norwich City over 4.5 corners	59.3%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Norwich City under 5.5 corners	52.8%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Norwich City over 5.5 corners	47.2%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Norwich City under 4.5 corners	40.7%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Norwich City over 6.5 corners	36.3%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Norwich City under 3.5 corners	28.2%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Norwich City under 2.5 corners	16.7%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City under 3.5 goals	95.2%	97.5%	97.8%	1.00×	1.03
Norwich City under 2.5 goals	84.5%	81.5%	90.6%	0.90×	1.23
Norwich City over 0.5 goals	74.1%	71.9%	69.5%	1.03×	1.39
Norwich City under 1.5 goals	60.9%	63.2%	70.0%	0.90×	1.58
Norwich City over 1.5 goals	39.1%	36.8%	30.0%	1.23×	2.72
Norwich City under 0.5 goals	25.9%	28.1%	30.5%	0.92×	3.55
Norwich City over 2.5 goals	15.5%	18.5%	9.4%	1.96×	5.41
Norwich City over 3.5 goals	4.8%	2.5%	2.2%	1.14×	39.72

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City under 1.5 in 1st half	89.7%	89.4%	—	—	1.12
Norwich City under 0.5 in 1st half	58.3%	62.3%	—	—	1.60
Norwich City over 0.5 in 1st half	41.7%	37.7%	—	—	2.66
Norwich City over 1.5 in 1st half	10.3%	10.6%	—	—	9.40

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City scores more in 2nd half	38.9%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Norwich City scores equally in both	38.6%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Norwich City scores more in 1st half	22.5%	21.8%	—	—	4.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County (away no bet)	56.4%	57.3%	61.1%	0.94×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	43.6%	42.7%	38.9%	1.10×	2.34

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City even goals	53.4%	52.6%	52.4%	1.00×	1.90
Norwich City odd goals	46.6%	47.4%	47.6%	1.00×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.0%	83.3%	—	—	1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals	15.0%	16.7%	—	—	5.98

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	64.9%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Both halves under 1.5 goals	35.1%	42.3%	—	—	2.36

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	55.7%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Derby County to score 2+ in a row	32.0%	28.9%	—	—	3.46
Norwich City to score 2+ in a row	30.4%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
Either team to score 3+ in a row	19.2%	16.2%	—	—	6.18
Derby County to score 3+ in a row	10.2%	12.1%	—	—	8.27
Norwich City to score 3+ in a row	9.3%	5.6%	—	—	18.02

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County corners (+3.5)	78.8%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Norwich City corners (+3.5)	75.5%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Derby County corners (+2.5)	72.3%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Norwich City corners (+2.5)	68.5%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Derby County corners (+1.5)	64.8%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Norwich City corners (+1.5)	60.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Derby County corners (-1.5)	39.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Norwich City corners (-1.5)	35.2%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Derby County corners (-2.5)	31.5%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Norwich City corners (-2.5)	27.7%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Derby County corners (-3.5)	24.5%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Norwich City corners (-3.5)	21.2%	25.2%	—	—	3.97

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	48.5%	41.8%	—	—	2.40
0-8 corners	27.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
9-11 corners	24.5%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	80.4%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Over 8.5 corners	73.0%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 9.5 corners	65.0%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 12.5 corners	59.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 10.5 corners	56.7%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 11.5 corners	51.5%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 11.5 corners	48.5%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 10.5 corners	43.3%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 12.5 corners	40.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 9.5 corners	35.0%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 8.5 corners	27.0%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	19.6%	19.3%	—	—	5.17

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	13.6%	11.5%	14.5%	0.79×	8.71
2-1	8.4%	7.4%	11.5%	0.65×	13.51
0-0	7.9%	7.4%	7.3%	1.01×	13.51
0-1	7.2%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.51
1-0	7.5%	7.4%	11.0%	0.67×	13.51
1-2	8.2%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.51
0-2	5.9%	7.4%	5.3%	1.41×	13.51
2-0	6.3%	7.4%	6.1%	1.21×	13.51
2-2	5.7%	7.4%	5.2%	1.43×	13.51
0-3	2.6%	1.7%	1.6%	1.06×	58.30
0-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.4%	4.04×	58.31
1-3	3.7%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.30
1-4	1.2%	1.7%	0.6%	2.88×	58.31
2-3	2.6%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.30
2-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.3%	6.73×	58.31
3-0	2.9%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.30
3-1	3.9%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.30
3-2	2.6%	1.7%	1.8%	0.96×	58.30
3-3	1.2%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	58.31
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	6.73×	58.32
4-0	1.0%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.31
4-1	1.4%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	58.31
4-2	0.9%	1.7%	0.8%	2.24×	58.31
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%	10.09×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	20.18×	58.32
Any other score	2.6%	1.7%	3.0%	0.58×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City (2nd half DNB)	50.7%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Derby County (2nd half DNB)	49.3%	45.6%	—	—	2.19

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County leading at HT (DNB)	53.4%	56.2%	—	—	1.78
Norwich City leading at HT (DNB)	46.6%	43.8%	—	—	2.28

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County or Norwich City (12)	71.5%	72.1%	72.4%	1.00×	1.39
Derby County or draw (1X)	65.3%	69.6%	70.9%	0.98×	1.44
Norwich City or draw (X2)	63.2%	63.7%	56.6%	1.13×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County or draw at HT	73.8%	74.5%	—	—	1.34
Norwich City or draw at HT	69.9%	67.3%	—	—	1.49
Derby County or Norwich City at HT	56.3%	57.4%	—	—	1.74

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County or draw (1UP)	65.3%	76.2%	—	—	1.31
Norwich City or draw (1UP)	63.2%	71.7%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City or draw in 2nd half	68.6%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
Derby County or draw in 2nd half	67.7%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
Derby County or Norwich City in 2nd half	63.7%	63.6%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	62.5%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	37.5%	38.6%	—	—	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County (DNB)	51.4%	50.9%	59.9%	0.85×	1.97
Norwich City (DNB)	48.6%	49.1%	40.1%	1.23×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County to score first	46.8%	45.8%	—	—	2.18
Norwich City to score first	45.3%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
No goal scored	7.9%	7.6%	—	—	13.18

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	57.2%	55.0%	54.4%	1.01×	1.82
Not both teams to score	42.8%	45.0%	45.6%	0.99×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	43.6%	41.6%	39.9%	1.04×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	34.7%	34.6%	37.1%	0.93×	2.89
Both score & under 2.5	13.6%	12.4%	14.5%	0.85×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.1%	8.3%	8.6%	0.97×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	84.1%	82.7%	89.0%	0.93×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	15.9%	17.3%	11.0%	1.58×	5.77

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	69.1%	67.3%	—	—	1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half	30.9%	32.7%	—	—	3.06

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	55.7%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	25.2%	26.8%	—	—	3.73
Both score 1st half only	13.3%	10.8%	—	—	9.29
Both score in both halves	5.7%	6.8%	—	—	14.81

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.9%	83.4%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	19.1%	16.6%	—	—	6.01

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	55.1%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
A half without a goal	44.9%	43.2%	—	—	2.32

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.8%	47.2%	50.5%	0.94×	2.12
4-6 goals	27.4%	26.6%	22.4%	1.19×	3.76
0-1 goals	22.6%	22.9%	25.9%	0.88×	4.36
7+ goals	2.2%	1.8%	1.4%	1.35×	54.34

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City to score exactly 1	35.0%	33.8%	39.6%	0.85×	2.96
Norwich City to score exactly 0	25.9%	27.4%	30.5%	0.90×	3.65
Norwich City to score exactly 2	23.6%	22.3%	20.6%	1.08×	4.49
Norwich City to score 3+	15.5%	19.5%	9.4%	2.07×	5.12

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County to score exactly 1	34.6%	32.6%	37.0%	0.88×	3.07
Derby County to score exactly 0	24.8%	23.3%	22.4%	1.04×	4.29
Derby County to score exactly 2	24.1%	23.3%	24.6%	0.95×	4.29
Derby County to score 3+	16.5%	18.8%	16.1%	1.16×	5.32

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	43.7%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Derby County leading at HT	30.1%	32.7%	—	—	3.05
Norwich City leading at HT	26.2%	25.5%	—	—	3.93

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County -1: 2	63.2%	62.6%	—	—	1.60
Derby County -1: X	19.1%	17.5%	—	—	5.71
Derby County -1: 1	17.7%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City (0:1)	63.2%	61.5%	56.6%	1.09×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	19.1%	17.8%	24.2%	0.74×	5.61
Derby County (0:1)	17.7%	17.8%	19.3%	0.92×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City (0:2)	82.3%	83.0%	80.7%	1.03×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	11.2%	11.0%	11.3%	0.97×	9.11
Derby County (0:2)	6.5%	7.7%	8.1%	0.95×	13.06

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City (0:3)	93.5%	92.7%	91.9%	1.01×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.6%	2.4%	4.8%	0.50×	41.94
Derby County (0:3)	1.9%	2.4%	3.4%	0.70×	42.05

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City (0:4)	98.1%	98.1%	96.6%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.5%	1.2%	2.4%	0.51×	81.74
Derby County (0:4)	0.5%	1.2%	1.1%	1.11×	81.85

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County (1:0)	65.3%	70.1%	70.9%	0.99×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	18.4%	17.1%	17.4%	0.98×	5.85
Norwich City (1:0)	16.3%	17.1%	11.7%	1.46×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County (2:0)	83.7%	84.6%	88.3%	0.96×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	10.5%	10.3%	8.6%	1.20×	9.73
Norwich City (2:0)	5.8%	6.4%	3.2%	1.98×	15.68

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.0%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
Halves equal	26.9%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
1st half highest scoring	26.1%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County to concede	74.1%	73.1%	69.5%	1.05×	1.37
Derby County clean sheet	25.9%	26.9%	30.5%	0.88×	3.71

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County clean sheet in 1st half	58.3%	62.3%	—	—	1.60
Derby County to concede in 1st half	41.7%	37.7%	—	—	2.66

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County to concede in 2nd half	55.5%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Derby County clean sheet in 2nd half	44.5%	45.3%	—	—	2.21

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County over 2.5 corners	84.9%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Derby County over 3.5 corners	74.1%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Derby County over 4.5 corners	62.1%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Derby County under 6.5 corners	60.7%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Derby County over 5.5 corners	50.2%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Derby County under 5.5 corners	49.8%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Derby County over 6.5 corners	39.3%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Derby County under 4.5 corners	37.9%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Derby County under 3.5 corners	25.9%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Derby County under 2.5 corners	15.1%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County under 3.5 goals	94.7%	92.2%	94.8%	0.97×	1.08
Derby County under 2.5 goals	83.5%	82.2%	83.9%	0.98×	1.22
Derby County over 0.5 goals	75.2%	77.7%	77.6%	1.00×	1.29
Derby County under 1.5 goals	59.4%	58.7%	59.4%	0.99×	1.71
Derby County over 1.5 goals	40.6%	41.3%	40.6%	1.02×	2.42
Derby County under 0.5 goals	24.8%	22.3%	22.4%	0.99×	4.49
Derby County over 2.5 goals	16.5%	17.8%	16.1%	1.10×	5.62
Derby County over 3.5 goals	5.3%	7.8%	5.2%	1.50×	12.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County under 1.5 in 1st half	87.8%	90.2%	—	—	1.11
Derby County under 0.5 in 1st half	54.9%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Derby County over 0.5 in 1st half	45.1%	49.2%	—	—	2.03
Derby County over 1.5 in 1st half	12.2%	9.8%	—	—	10.19

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County scores equally in both	38.1%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Derby County scores more in 2nd half	36.8%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Derby County scores more in 1st half	25.1%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City (home no bet)	55.0%	51.5%	51.3%	1.00×	1.94
Draw (home no bet)	45.0%	48.5%	48.7%	1.00×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County even goals	53.1%	50.8%	50.5%	1.01×	1.97
Derby County odd goals	46.9%	49.2%	49.5%	0.99×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	32.2%	33.5%	—	—	2.98
HT 1-0	18.9%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
HT 0-1	17.0%	18.6%	—	—	5.39
HT 1-1	10.6%	11.0%	—	—	9.11
HT 2-0	5.8%	6.9%	—	—	14.57
HT 0-2	4.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.10
Any other HT score	4.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.14
HT 2-1	3.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.20
HT 1-2	2.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.22
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.35

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County at HT / Derby County at FT	21.6%	21.6%	—	—	4.64
Norwich City at HT / Norwich City at FT	18.9%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	17.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Norwich City at FT	13.3%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Derby County at FT	13.0%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Derby County at HT / Draw at FT	5.9%	6.1%	—	—	16.52
Norwich City at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.54
Derby County at HT / Norwich City at FT	2.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.93
Norwich City at HT / Derby County at FT	2.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.94

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County to score last	46.8%	46.3%	—	—	2.16
Norwich City to score last	45.3%	46.2%	—	—	2.16
No goal scored	7.9%	7.6%	—	—	13.18

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.1%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Derby County to lead by 1 at any time	54.4%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Norwich City to lead by 1 at any time	52.6%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	46.2%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
Derby County to lead by 2 at any time	24.0%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Norwich City to lead by 2 at any time	22.4%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	16.0%	14.8%	—	—	6.76
Derby County to lead by 3 at any time	8.4%	6.7%	—	—	15.00
Norwich City to lead by 3 at any time	7.6%	6.7%	—	—	15.03

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County most corners	47.8%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Norwich City most corners	43.5%	43.6%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	8.6%	8.3%	—	—	11.98

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.1%	87.4%	88.8%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	77.7%	78.7%	83.3%	0.94×	1.27
2-6 goals	75.2%	78.7%	72.8%	1.08×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.4%	72.3%	70.2%	1.03×	1.38
2-4 goals	63.0%	63.3%	64.7%	0.98×	1.58
1-3 goals	62.5%	63.3%	69.1%	0.92×	1.58
3-6 goals	49.5%	48.4%	47.2%	1.03×	2.06
2-3 goals	47.8%	48.4%	50.5%	0.96×	2.06
3-5 goals	45.7%	48.4%	44.5%	1.09×	2.06
1-2 goals	40.4%	43.6%	44.4%	0.98×	2.29
3-4 goals	37.3%	39.2%	39.1%	1.00×	2.55
4-6 goals	27.4%	30.2%	22.4%	1.35×	3.31
4-5 goals	23.5%	24.5%	19.8%	1.24×	4.09
5-6 goals	12.2%	14.8%	8.2%	1.81×	6.76
7+ goals	2.2%	2.6%	1.4%	1.88×	39.17

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County never behind	39.5%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
Norwich City never behind	37.7%	44.2%	—	—	2.26

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	46.9%	50.9%	49.4%	1.03×	1.97
Even number of goals	53.1%	49.1%	50.6%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.6%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	44.4%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.0%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.0%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.0%	92.3%	96.0%	0.96×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	92.1%	92.3%	92.7%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	85.6%	87.6%	90.6%	0.97×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	77.4%	77.3%	74.1%	1.04×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	70.4%	72.5%	76.3%	0.95×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	51.7%	52.5%	48.4%	1.08×	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	48.3%	47.5%	51.6%	0.92×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	29.6%	27.5%	23.7%	1.16×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	22.6%	22.7%	25.9%	0.88×	4.40
Over 4.5 goals	14.4%	12.4%	9.4%	1.32×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	7.9%	7.7%	7.3%	1.06×	12.93
Over 5.5 goals	6.0%	7.7%	4.0%	1.94×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.7%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.4%	92.4%	95.8%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	83.0%	81.1%	89.0%	0.91×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	69.6%	67.5%	65.1%	1.04×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	62.0%	61.9%	68.5%	0.90×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	38.0%	38.1%	31.5%	1.21×	2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	30.4%	32.5%	34.9%	0.93×	3.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	17.0%	18.9%	11.0%	1.72×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.6%	7.6%	4.2%	1.79×	13.19
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.3%	2.8%	1.4%	2.01×	35.61

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.2%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half	68.2%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Over 0.5 in 1st half	67.8%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	32.2%	31.4%	—	—	3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half	31.8%	31.4%	—	—	3.18
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.8%	10.9%	—	—	9.15

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	79.4%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	78.2%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	51.8%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	48.2%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	21.8%	20.5%	—	—	4.89
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	20.6%	20.4%	—	—	4.89

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City not to score in both halves	76.8%	78.4%	—	—	1.28
Derby County not to score in both halves	75.3%	78.3%	—	—	1.28
Derby County to score in both halves	24.7%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
Norwich City to score in both halves	23.2%	21.6%	—	—	4.63

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	57.2%	58.6%	54.4%	1.08×	1.71
Only Derby County scores	18.0%	16.0%	23.3%	0.69×	6.23
Only Norwich City scores	16.9%	16.0%	15.2%	1.05×	6.24
Neither team scores	7.9%	7.1%	7.3%	0.98×	14.00

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.7%	24.9%	25.7%	0.97×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	22.1%	22.6%	24.8%	0.91×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	15.2%	17.4%	14.4%	1.22×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	14.7%	12.1%	18.7%	0.65×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	7.9%	7.6%	7.3%	1.04×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	8.3%	7.6%	5.5%	1.38×	13.13
6 or more goals	6.0%	7.6%	4.0%	1.91×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.0%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
No goals in 1st half	32.2%	35.7%	—	—	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	21.0%	21.4%	—	—	4.68
3+ goals in 1st half	10.8%	10.8%	—	—	9.23

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	48.2%	44.9%	—	—	2.23
1 goal in 2nd half	31.2%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	20.6%	22.8%	—	—	4.38

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City not to win both halves	91.3%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Derby County not to win both halves	90.3%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Derby County to win both halves	9.7%	5.9%	—	—	16.96
Norwich City to win both halves	8.7%	5.9%	—	—	17.03

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County to win either half	51.8%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Norwich City to win neither half	50.2%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Norwich City to win either half	49.8%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Derby County to win neither half	48.2%	45.7%	—	—	2.19

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Norwich City not to win to nil	83.1%	83.1%	84.8%	0.98×	1.20
Derby County not to win to nil	82.0%	83.1%	76.7%	1.08×	1.20
Derby County to win to nil	18.0%	16.9%	23.3%	0.73×	5.91
Norwich City to win to nil	16.9%	16.9%	15.2%	1.11×	5.91

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	28.5%	27.9%	27.6%	1.01×	3.59
Derby County by 1	19.1%	17.0%	24.2%	0.70×	5.87
Norwich City by 1	18.4%	17.0%	17.4%	0.98×	5.87
Derby County by 2	11.2%	11.8%	11.3%	1.04×	8.51
Norwich City by 2	10.5%	11.8%	8.6%	1.37×	8.51
Derby County by 3+	6.5%	7.2%	8.1%	0.89×	13.91
Norwich City by 3+	5.8%	7.2%	3.2%	2.23×	13.92