Derby County v Stoke City — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 17 October 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated 10 Sep 2026, 06:01 UTC

Derby County

14:00 UTC

Stoke City

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 5 Sep, 22:23 · 1,000h before kick-off

Derby County win

46.5%

model 45.5%

Draw

26.8%

model 28.7%

Stoke City win

26.8%

model 25.8%

462727

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,799 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.7%
1-0 10.0%
2-1 9.2%
0-0 9.0%
2-0 8.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	47.6%	Under 2.5	52.4%
BTTS yes	52.7%	BTTS no	47.3%
Derby County 1+	77.7%	Derby County 2+	44.3%
Stoke City 1+	65.9%	Stoke City 2+	29.3%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.08. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

44/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

★ Most likely to land

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

Derby County carry the stronger rating, 1466 Elo against 1330.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Derby County have an estimated 46.5% win probability, against 26.8% for the draw and 26.8% for Stoke City. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.50 for Derby County and 1.08 for Stoke City.

Why Derby County

Derby County carry the stronger rating, 1466 Elo against 1330.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.8%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Stoke City can win

Nothing in the data singles out Stoke City.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Derby County, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Stoke City, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Derby County: 45% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 17.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Stoke City: 42% possession, 10.4 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Derby County are the model's most likely outcome at 46.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.7%. Confidence 44/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
dc-xg	453025	1.43–1.00	1-1 14%	44%	50%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County to win	45.4%	47.4%	43.4%	1.09×	2.11
Draw	29.8%	27.9%	27.6%	1.01×	3.59
Stoke City to win	24.8%	24.5%	29.1%	0.84×	4.08

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County & not both score	26.4%	25.1%	23.2%	1.08×	3.98
Draw & both teams score	19.4%	17.9%	20.4%	0.88×	5.58
Derby County & both teams score	19.0%	17.9%	20.3%	0.89×	5.58
Stoke City & not both score	13.5%	13.3%	15.2%	0.87×	7.54
Stoke City & both teams score	11.3%	13.3%	13.9%	0.95×	7.54
Draw & not both score	10.3%	13.3%	7.3%	1.83×	7.54

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County & over 1.5	34.4%	30.8%	32.5%	0.95×	3.24
Derby County & under 3.5	33.3%	30.8%	32.4%	0.95×	3.24
Derby County & over 2.5	25.4%	26.0%	26.4%	0.99×	3.84
Draw & under 2.5	24.5%	21.6%	21.7%	0.99×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	24.5%	21.6%	21.7%	0.99×	4.63
Derby County & under 2.5	20.0%	18.0%	17.1%	1.05×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	19.4%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.56
Stoke City & under 3.5	19.4%	18.0%	22.3%	0.81×	5.56
Stoke City & over 1.5	17.6%	18.0%	21.5%	0.84×	5.56
Stoke City & over 2.5	13.2%	12.9%	16.2%	0.79×	7.76
Derby County & over 3.5	12.1%	12.9%	11.1%	1.16×	7.76
Stoke City & under 2.5	11.6%	12.9%	12.9%	1.00×	7.76
Derby County & under 1.5	11.0%	12.9%	11.0%	1.17×	7.76
Draw & under 1.5	10.3%	12.9%	7.3%	1.77×	7.76
Stoke City & under 1.5	7.2%	7.9%	7.7%	1.03×	12.65
Draw & over 2.5	5.3%	7.9%	6.0%	1.32×	12.65
Draw & over 3.5	5.3%	7.9%	6.0%	1.32×	12.65
Stoke City & over 3.5	5.4%	7.9%	6.8%	1.16×	12.65

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County (1UP)	59.9%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
Stoke City (1UP)	41.6%	39.3%	—	—	2.55

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County (2UP)	45.4%	49.7%	—	—	2.01
Stoke City (2UP)	24.8%	23.9%	—	—	4.19

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	38.7%	36.0%	—	—	2.78
Derby County to win 2nd half	37.1%	35.9%	—	—	2.78
Stoke City to win 2nd half	24.2%	23.2%	—	—	4.32

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City under 1.5 in 2nd half	87.8%	86.7%	—	—	1.15
Stoke City under 0.5 in 2nd half	54.8%	53.5%	—	—	1.87
Stoke City over 0.5 in 2nd half	45.2%	46.5%	—	—	2.15
Stoke City over 1.5 in 2nd half	12.2%	13.3%	—	—	7.52

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County under 1.5 in 2nd half	80.3%	82.3%	—	—	1.22
Derby County over 0.5 in 2nd half	55.8%	58.9%	—	—	1.70
Derby County under 0.5 in 2nd half	44.2%	41.1%	—	—	2.43
Derby County over 1.5 in 2nd half	19.7%	17.7%	—	—	5.66

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City (+2.5)	91.2%	92.1%	92.0%	1.00×	1.09
Stoke City (+1.5)	77.0%	78.4%	80.7%	0.97×	1.28
Derby County (+0.5)	75.2%	78.4%	70.9%	1.11×	1.28
Stoke City (+0.5)	54.6%	52.4%	56.6%	0.93×	1.91
Derby County (-0.5)	45.4%	47.6%	43.4%	1.10×	2.10
Stoke City (-0.5)	24.8%	21.6%	29.1%	0.74×	4.63
Derby County (-1.5)	23.0%	21.6%	19.3%	1.12×	4.63
Derby County (-2.5)	8.8%	7.9%	8.0%	0.99×	12.58

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City to concede	76.1%	78.9%	77.6%	1.02×	1.27
Stoke City clean sheet	23.9%	21.1%	22.4%	0.94×	4.74

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City to concede in 1st half	46.0%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Stoke City clean sheet in 1st half	54.0%	49.4%	—	—	2.03

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City to concede in 2nd half	55.8%	58.5%	—	—	1.71
Stoke City clean sheet in 2nd half	44.2%	41.5%	—	—	2.41

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City over 2.5 corners	85.2%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Stoke City over 3.5 corners	74.5%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Stoke City over 4.5 corners	62.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Stoke City under 6.5 corners	60.2%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Stoke City over 5.5 corners	50.7%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Stoke City under 5.5 corners	49.3%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Stoke City over 6.5 corners	39.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Stoke City under 4.5 corners	37.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Stoke City under 3.5 corners	25.5%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Stoke City under 2.5 corners	14.8%	14.8%	—	—	6.76

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City under 3.5 goals	98.1%	97.5%	97.8%	1.00×	1.03
Stoke City under 2.5 goals	92.0%	92.3%	90.5%	1.02×	1.08
Stoke City under 1.5 goals	73.5%	71.9%	69.9%	1.03×	1.39
Stoke City over 0.5 goals	63.2%	63.1%	69.6%	0.91×	1.59
Stoke City under 0.5 goals	36.8%	36.9%	30.4%	1.21×	2.71
Stoke City over 1.5 goals	26.5%	28.1%	30.1%	0.93×	3.56
Stoke City over 2.5 goals	8.0%	7.7%	9.5%	0.81×	13.00
Stoke City over 3.5 goals	1.9%	2.5%	2.2%	1.12×	40.08

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City under 1.5 in 1st half	93.8%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Stoke City under 0.5 in 1st half	67.0%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Stoke City over 0.5 in 1st half	33.0%	31.5%	—	—	3.17
Stoke City over 1.5 in 1st half	6.2%	5.8%	—	—	17.33

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City scores equally in both	46.1%	48.3%	—	—	2.07
Stoke City scores more in 2nd half	33.7%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Stoke City scores more in 1st half	20.2%	22.4%	—	—	4.47

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County (away no bet)	60.4%	61.9%	61.1%	1.01×	1.62
Draw (away no bet)	39.6%	38.1%	38.9%	0.98×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City even goals	56.8%	56.9%	52.4%	1.09×	1.76
Stoke City odd goals	43.2%	43.1%	47.6%	0.91×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	88.8%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	11.2%	12.2%	—	—	8.21

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	58.0%	60.3%	—	—	1.66
Both halves under 1.5 goals	42.0%	39.7%	—	—	2.52

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	50.2%	51.2%	—	—	1.95
Derby County to score 2+ in a row	35.0%	29.2%	—	—	3.43
Stoke City to score 2+ in a row	19.7%	16.4%	—	—	6.11
Either team to score 3+ in a row	16.6%	16.3%	—	—	6.14
Derby County to score 3+ in a row	12.1%	12.1%	—	—	8.24
Stoke City to score 3+ in a row	4.6%	2.6%	—	—	37.80

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City corners (+3.5)	77.5%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Derby County corners (+3.5)	76.2%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Stoke City corners (+2.5)	70.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Derby County corners (+2.5)	69.4%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Stoke City corners (+1.5)	63.3%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Derby County corners (+1.5)	61.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Stoke City corners (-1.5)	38.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Derby County corners (-1.5)	36.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Stoke City corners (-2.5)	30.6%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Derby County corners (-2.5)	29.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Stoke City corners (-3.5)	23.8%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Derby County corners (-3.5)	22.5%	25.2%	—	—	3.97

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	50.5%	45.4%	—	—	2.21
0-8 corners	25.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
9-11 corners	24.0%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	81.6%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Over 8.5 corners	74.6%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 9.5 corners	66.8%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 10.5 corners	58.7%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 12.5 corners	57.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 11.5 corners	50.5%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 11.5 corners	49.5%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 12.5 corners	42.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 10.5 corners	41.3%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 9.5 corners	33.2%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Under 8.5 corners	25.4%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Under 7.5 corners	18.4%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	14.2%	11.4%	14.5%	0.79×	8.74
1-0	11.0%	11.4%	11.0%	1.04×	8.74
0-0	10.3%	11.4%	7.3%	1.57×	8.74
2-0	9.0%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.50
2-1	9.0%	7.4%	11.5%	0.65×	13.50
0-1	7.2%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.50
1-2	6.3%	7.4%	7.9%	0.93×	13.50
0-2	4.4%	1.7%	5.3%	0.32×	58.29
0-3	1.5%	1.7%	1.6%	1.06×	58.31
0-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.4%	4.01×	58.32
1-3	2.1%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.31
1-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.6%	2.87×	58.32
2-2	4.5%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.29
2-3	1.5%	1.7%	1.7%	1.00×	58.31
2-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	6.69×	58.32
3-0	4.3%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.29
3-1	4.3%	1.7%	4.4%	0.39×	58.29
3-2	2.2%	1.7%	1.8%	0.96×	58.31
3-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.9%	2.01×	58.32
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	6.69×	58.32
4-0	1.5%	1.7%	1.7%	1.00×	58.31
4-1	1.5%	1.7%	0.9%	2.01×	58.31
4-2	0.8%	1.7%	0.8%	2.23×	58.31
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	10.03×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	20.06×	58.32
Any other score	1.9%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County (2nd half DNB)	60.5%	61.0%	—	—	1.64
Stoke City (2nd half DNB)	39.5%	39.0%	—	—	2.56

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County leading at HT (DNB)	63.4%	65.6%	—	—	1.52
Stoke City leading at HT (DNB)	36.6%	34.4%	—	—	2.91

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County or draw (1X)	75.2%	75.5%	70.9%	1.06×	1.33
Derby County or Stoke City (12)	70.2%	72.1%	72.4%	1.00×	1.39
Stoke City or draw (X2)	54.6%	52.6%	56.6%	0.93×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County or draw at HT	80.3%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Stoke City or draw at HT	65.9%	66.2%	—	—	1.51
Derby County or Stoke City at HT	53.8%	47.7%	—	—	2.09

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County or draw (1UP)	75.2%	83.8%	—	—	1.19
Stoke City or draw (1UP)	54.6%	59.3%	—	—	1.69

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County or draw in 2nd half	75.8%	76.8%	—	—	1.30
Stoke City or draw in 2nd half	62.9%	64.1%	—	—	1.56
Derby County or Stoke City in 2nd half	61.3%	64.0%	—	—	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	65.4%	69.2%	—	—	1.45
Neither half drawn	34.6%	30.8%	—	—	3.25

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County (DNB)	64.7%	62.9%	59.9%	1.05×	1.59
Stoke City (DNB)	35.3%	37.1%	40.1%	0.93×	2.69

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County to score first	52.8%	53.9%	—	—	1.86
Stoke City to score first	36.9%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
No goal scored	10.3%	9.5%	—	—	10.54

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	50.3%	51.3%	45.6%	1.13×	1.95
Both teams to score	49.7%	48.7%	54.4%	0.89×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	42.0%	41.7%	37.1%	1.12×	2.40
Both score & over 2.5	35.6%	38.5%	40.0%	0.96×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	14.2%	12.3%	14.5%	0.85×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	8.3%	8.3%	8.5%	0.98×	11.99

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	88.9%	85.6%	89.0%	0.96×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	11.1%	14.4%	11.0%	1.31×	6.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	74.3%	74.2%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	25.7%	25.9%	—	—	3.87

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	62.7%	66.5%	—	—	1.51
Both score 2nd half only	21.9%	20.8%	—	—	4.80
Both score 1st half only	11.6%	10.7%	—	—	9.34
Both score in both halves	3.8%	5.0%	—	—	19.96

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	84.6%	82.5%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	15.4%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	50.9%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
A goal in each half	49.1%	46.7%	—	—	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	48.6%	47.3%	50.5%	0.94×	2.11
0-1 goals	28.6%	26.6%	25.8%	1.03×	3.76
4-6 goals	21.6%	22.8%	22.5%	1.02×	4.38
7+ goals	1.2%	1.8%	1.4%	1.34×	54.77

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City to score exactly 0	36.8%	36.0%	30.4%	1.18×	2.78
Stoke City to score exactly 1	36.8%	36.0%	39.6%	0.91×	2.78
Stoke City to score exactly 2	18.4%	19.6%	20.7%	0.95×	5.10
Stoke City to score 3+	8.0%	8.5%	9.5%	0.90×	11.71

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County to score exactly 1	34.2%	32.6%	37.0%	0.88×	3.07
Derby County to score exactly 2	24.5%	23.2%	24.6%	0.94×	4.30
Derby County to score exactly 0	23.9%	23.2%	22.4%	1.04×	4.30
Derby County to score 3+	17.4%	18.9%	16.2%	1.17×	5.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	46.2%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Derby County leading at HT	34.1%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
Stoke City leading at HT	19.7%	15.7%	—	—	6.37

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County -1: 2	54.6%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Derby County -1: 1	23.0%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Derby County -1: X	22.4%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City (0:1)	54.6%	51.3%	56.6%	0.91×	1.95
Derby County (0:1)	23.0%	24.3%	19.3%	1.26×	4.12
Draw (0:1)	22.4%	24.3%	24.2%	1.00×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City (0:2)	77.0%	79.4%	80.7%	0.98×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	14.1%	10.9%	11.4%	0.96×	9.16
Derby County (0:2)	8.8%	7.7%	8.0%	0.96×	12.96

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City (0:3)	91.2%	92.6%	92.0%	1.01×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	6.1%	5.8%	4.8%	1.21×	17.30
Derby County (0:3)	2.7%	2.4%	3.3%	0.71×	42.11

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City (0:4)	97.3%	98.1%	96.7%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.0%	1.2%	2.4%	0.50×	83.51
Derby County (0:4)	0.7%	1.2%	1.0%	1.17×	83.67

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County (1:0)	75.2%	78.4%	70.9%	1.11×	1.28
Draw (1:0)	15.2%	17.0%	17.4%	0.98×	5.89
Stoke City (1:0)	9.6%	7.0%	11.8%	0.59×	14.37

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County (2:0)	90.4%	93.9%	88.2%	1.06×	1.07
Draw (2:0)	6.9%	6.5%	8.6%	0.75×	15.50
Stoke City (2:0)	2.7%	2.3%	3.2%	0.70×	43.68

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	44.9%	48.9%	—	—	2.04
Halves equal	29.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
1st half highest scoring	26.0%	26.5%	—	—	3.78

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County to concede	63.2%	63.6%	69.6%	0.91×	1.57
Derby County clean sheet	36.8%	36.4%	30.4%	1.20×	2.75

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County clean sheet in 1st half	67.0%	68.8%	—	—	1.45
Derby County to concede in 1st half	33.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County clean sheet in 2nd half	54.8%	53.5%	—	—	1.87
Derby County to concede in 2nd half	45.2%	46.5%	—	—	2.15

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County over 2.5 corners	84.6%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Derby County over 3.5 corners	73.6%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Derby County over 4.5 corners	61.5%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Derby County under 6.5 corners	61.4%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Derby County under 5.5 corners	50.5%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Derby County over 5.5 corners	49.5%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Derby County over 6.5 corners	38.6%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Derby County under 4.5 corners	38.5%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Derby County under 3.5 corners	26.4%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Derby County under 2.5 corners	15.4%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County under 3.5 goals	94.3%	92.2%	94.9%	0.97×	1.08
Derby County under 2.5 goals	82.6%	82.1%	83.8%	0.98×	1.22
Derby County over 0.5 goals	76.1%	77.7%	77.6%	1.00×	1.29
Derby County under 1.5 goals	58.1%	58.8%	59.3%	0.99×	1.70
Derby County over 1.5 goals	41.9%	41.2%	40.7%	1.01×	2.43
Derby County under 0.5 goals	23.9%	22.3%	22.4%	0.99×	4.49
Derby County over 2.5 goals	17.4%	17.9%	16.2%	1.11×	5.58
Derby County over 3.5 goals	5.7%	7.8%	5.1%	1.51×	12.90

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County under 1.5 in 1st half	87.3%	89.8%	—	—	1.11
Derby County over 0.5 in 1st half	46.0%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Derby County under 0.5 in 1st half	54.0%	49.2%	—	—	2.03
Derby County over 1.5 in 1st half	12.7%	10.2%	—	—	9.78

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County scores equally in both	37.5%	37.7%	—	—	2.66
Derby County scores more in 2nd half	37.2%	37.7%	—	—	2.66
Derby County scores more in 1st half	25.3%	28.0%	—	—	3.58

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	54.6%	51.5%	48.7%	1.06×	1.94
Stoke City (home no bet)	45.4%	48.5%	51.3%	0.95×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County even goals	52.9%	50.6%	50.4%	1.00×	1.98
Derby County odd goals	47.1%	49.4%	49.6%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	36.5%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
HT 1-0	22.0%	24.2%	—	—	4.14
HT 0-1	14.2%	10.9%	—	—	9.14
HT 1-1	9.2%	7.1%	—	—	13.99
HT 2-0	6.9%	7.1%	—	—	14.03
Any other HT score	3.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.47
HT 0-2	2.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.49
HT 2-1	2.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.50
HT 1-2	1.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.57
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.66

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County at HT / Derby County at FT	27.0%	27.0%	—	—	3.71
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	19.6%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Derby County at FT	16.3%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Stoke City at HT / Stoke City at FT	12.8%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Stoke City at FT	10.4%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
Derby County at HT / Draw at FT	5.4%	6.0%	—	—	16.72
Stoke City at HT / Draw at FT	4.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.74
Stoke City at HT / Derby County at FT	2.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.84
Derby County at HT / Stoke City at FT	1.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.86

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County to score last	52.9%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Stoke City to score last	36.7%	38.5%	—	—	2.60
No goal scored	10.3%	8.9%	—	—	11.27

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	89.7%	91.0%	—	—	1.10
Derby County to lead by 1 at any time	59.9%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	42.2%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Stoke City to lead by 1 at any time	41.6%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Derby County to lead by 2 at any time	28.4%	25.5%	—	—	3.92
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	14.2%	10.5%	—	—	9.52
Stoke City to lead by 2 at any time	13.9%	10.5%	—	—	9.53
Derby County to lead by 3 at any time	10.6%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Stoke City to lead by 3 at any time	3.6%	1.6%	—	—	60.82

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City most corners	46.6%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Derby County most corners	44.9%	43.6%	—	—	2.29
Corners level	8.5%	8.4%	—	—	11.90

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.9%	87.4%	88.9%	0.98×	1.15
1-4 goals	79.7%	78.6%	83.4%	0.94×	1.27
2-6 goals	70.2%	72.4%	72.9%	0.99×	1.38
2-5 goals	67.7%	68.9%	70.3%	0.98×	1.45
1-3 goals	66.8%	68.9%	69.1%	1.00×	1.45
2-4 goals	61.4%	63.4%	64.9%	0.98×	1.58
2-3 goals	48.6%	48.6%	50.5%	0.96×	2.06
1-2 goals	45.8%	48.6%	44.4%	1.10×	2.06
3-6 goals	42.6%	43.6%	47.2%	0.92×	2.30
3-5 goals	40.1%	43.6%	44.6%	0.98×	2.30
3-4 goals	33.9%	35.3%	39.1%	0.90×	2.83
4-6 goals	21.6%	24.5%	22.5%	1.09×	4.08
4-5 goals	19.1%	18.7%	19.9%	0.94×	5.34
5-6 goals	8.8%	8.8%	8.1%	1.09×	11.31
7+ goals	1.2%	2.6%	1.4%	1.87×	39.19

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Derby County never behind	48.0%	56.7%	—	—	1.77
Stoke City never behind	29.7%	30.2%	—	—	3.31

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	46.5%	50.8%	49.4%	1.03×	1.97
Even number of goals	53.5%	49.2%	50.6%	0.97×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	57.1%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	42.9%	42.5%	—	—	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.0%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.0%	48.0%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.2%	95.4%	96.1%	0.99×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	90.0%	87.6%	90.6%	0.97×	1.14
Over 0.5 goals	89.7%	87.6%	92.7%	0.94×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	77.2%	77.4%	76.2%	1.01×	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	71.4%	72.5%	74.2%	0.98×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	56.1%	58.7%	51.5%	1.14×	1.71
Over 2.5 goals	43.9%	41.3%	48.5%	0.85×	2.42
Under 1.5 goals	28.6%	27.5%	25.8%	1.07×	3.63
Over 3.5 goals	22.8%	22.6%	23.8%	0.95×	4.42
Under 0.5 goals	10.3%	12.4%	7.3%	1.70×	8.08
Over 4.5 goals	10.0%	12.4%	9.4%	1.32×	8.08
Over 5.5 goals	3.8%	4.6%	3.9%	1.16×	21.92

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.7%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	96.0%	97.2%	95.8%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	88.5%	86.7%	89.0%	0.97×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	71.1%	72.5%	68.4%	1.06×	1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	60.6%	61.9%	65.2%	0.95×	1.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	39.4%	38.1%	34.8%	1.10×	2.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	28.9%	27.5%	31.6%	0.87×	3.64
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	11.5%	13.3%	11.0%	1.21×	7.54
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.0%	2.8%	4.2%	0.67×	35.81
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.3%	2.8%	1.4%	1.99×	35.89

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	91.7%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	72.7%	71.2%	—	—	1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half	63.5%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half	36.5%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Over 1.5 in 1st half	27.3%	28.8%	—	—	3.48
Over 2.5 in 1st half	8.3%	7.3%	—	—	13.61

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	82.9%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	75.2%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	58.1%	54.8%	—	—	1.83
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	41.9%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	24.8%	20.3%	—	—	4.92
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	17.1%	17.2%	—	—	5.81

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City not to score in both halves	85.1%	85.6%	—	—	1.17
Derby County not to score in both halves	74.4%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
Derby County to score in both halves	25.7%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Stoke City to score in both halves	14.9%	14.4%	—	—	6.97

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	49.7%	50.6%	54.4%	0.93×	1.98
Only Derby County scores	26.4%	26.0%	23.2%	1.12×	3.84
Only Stoke City scores	13.5%	11.0%	15.2%	0.72×	9.10
Neither team scores	10.3%	11.0%	7.3%	1.51×	9.11

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	27.5%	24.9%	25.8%	0.97×	4.01
Exactly 3 goals	21.1%	22.6%	24.8%	0.91×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	18.2%	17.4%	18.6%	0.94×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	12.8%	12.1%	14.4%	0.84×	8.27
Exactly 0 goals	10.3%	12.1%	7.3%	1.66×	8.28
Exactly 5 goals	6.2%	7.6%	5.6%	1.38×	13.09
6 or more goals	3.8%	4.5%	3.9%	1.13×	22.42

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	36.5%	37.1%	—	—	2.70
1 goal in 1st half	36.2%	37.1%	—	—	2.70
2 goals in 1st half	19.0%	15.3%	—	—	6.54
3+ goals in 1st half	8.3%	7.3%	—	—	13.61

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	41.9%	44.5%	—	—	2.25
1 goal in 2nd half	33.3%	33.4%	—	—	3.00
No goals in 2nd half	24.8%	23.2%	—	—	4.32

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City not to win both halves	95.1%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Derby County not to win both halves	87.1%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Derby County to win both halves	12.9%	12.1%	—	—	8.27
Stoke City to win both halves	4.9%	2.8%	—	—	35.17

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City to win neither half	61.1%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
Derby County to win either half	58.2%	59.5%	—	—	1.68
Derby County to win neither half	41.8%	40.5%	—	—	2.47
Stoke City to win either half	38.9%	35.0%	—	—	2.86

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City not to win to nil	86.5%	88.1%	84.8%	1.04×	1.13
Derby County not to win to nil	73.6%	75.4%	76.8%	0.98×	1.33
Derby County to win to nil	26.4%	24.6%	23.2%	1.06×	4.06
Stoke City to win to nil	13.5%	11.9%	15.2%	0.78×	8.44

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	29.8%	27.9%	27.6%	1.01×	3.59
Derby County by 1	22.4%	24.2%	24.2%	1.00×	4.14
Stoke City by 1	15.2%	16.9%	17.4%	0.98×	5.91
Derby County by 2	14.1%	11.8%	11.4%	1.04×	8.49
Derby County by 3+	8.8%	7.2%	8.0%	0.90×	13.80
Stoke City by 2	6.9%	7.2%	8.6%	0.84×	13.81
Stoke City by 3+	2.7%	2.7%	3.2%	0.84×	36.67