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Dinamo Tbilisi v Meshakhte Tkibuli — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 10 September 2026 · GEO-Erovnuli Liga · 2627

GEO-Erovnuli Liga results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Dinamo Tbilisi win
66.2%
Draw
21.0%
Meshakhte Tkibuli win
12.8%

Raw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 2-0 11.7%
  2. 1-0 10.3%
  3. 1-1 10.0%
  4. 2-1 9.8%
  5. 3-0 8.3%

Goals

Over 2.556.6% Under 2.543.4%
BTTS yes50.5% BTTS no49.5%
Dinamo Tbilisi 1+88.0% Dinamo Tbilisi 2+62.5%
Meshakhte Tkibuli 1+56.5% Meshakhte Tkibuli 2+20.3%

Expected goals 2.12 – 0.83. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
22/100
Data quality
20/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
Dinamo Tbilisi & over 1.5
1X2 & Over/Under · usually 31%
57.5% fair odds 1.74
strong signal · 1808 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Not both to score by HT
GG/NG half time
82.7% fair odds 1.21
moderate signal · 1599 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • At home Dinamo Tbilisi average 1.35 xG a match.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 20/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • Dinamo Tbilisi have only 1 matches on record.
  • Meshakhte Tkibuli have only 1 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Dinamo Tbilisi have an estimated 66.2% win probability, against 21.0% for the draw and 12.8% for Meshakhte Tkibuli. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.12 for Dinamo Tbilisi and 0.83 for Meshakhte Tkibuli.

Why Dinamo Tbilisi

At home Dinamo Tbilisi average 1.35 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.0%.

Why Meshakhte Tkibuli can win

Away from home Meshakhte Tkibuli average 1.35 xG a match.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Dinamo Tbilisi, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Meshakhte Tkibuli, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Dinamo Tbilisi: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Meshakhte Tkibuli: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Dinamo Tbilisi are the model's most likely outcome at 66.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 11.7%. Confidence 22/100, data quality 20/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 2.12–0.83 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 2.04–0.77 2-0 13% 53% 48%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Tbilisi to win 66.1% 65.9% 40.3% 1.63× 1.52
Draw 21.5% 24.6% 25.7% 0.96× 4.07
Meshakhte Tkibuli to win 12.3% 13.6% 34.3% 0.40× 7.35
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Tbilisi & not both score 39.4% 32.9% 21.3% 1.54× 3.04
Dinamo Tbilisi & both teams score 26.7% 25.5% 19.3% 1.32× 3.93
Draw & both teams score 14.7% 13.2% 18.0% 0.74× 7.55
Draw & not both score 6.8% 8.4% 8.0% 1.05× 11.95
Meshakhte Tkibuli & both teams score 6.1% 8.4% 17.7% 0.47× 11.95
Meshakhte Tkibuli & not both score 6.2% 8.4% 17.0% 0.49× 11.95
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Tbilisi & over 1.5 54.7% 48.8% 31.3% 1.56× 2.05
Dinamo Tbilisi & over 2.5 42.2% 40.0% 25.0% 1.60× 2.50
Dinamo Tbilisi & under 3.5 42.1% 40.0% 30.3% 1.32× 2.50
Dinamo Tbilisi & under 2.5 24.0% 21.6% 15.7% 1.38× 4.63
Dinamo Tbilisi & over 3.5 24.0% 21.6% 10.3% 2.09× 4.63
Draw & under 2.5 17.1% 18.0% 19.3% 0.93× 5.57
Draw & under 3.5 17.1% 18.0% 19.3% 0.93× 5.57
Draw & over 1.5 14.7% 12.9% 18.0% 0.71× 7.77
Dinamo Tbilisi & under 1.5 11.5% 12.9% 9.3% 1.38× 7.78
Meshakhte Tkibuli & under 3.5 9.7% 8.0% 24.3% 0.33× 12.56
Meshakhte Tkibuli & over 1.5 8.5% 8.0% 25.0% 0.32× 12.56
Draw & under 1.5 6.8% 8.0% 8.0% 0.99× 12.56
Meshakhte Tkibuli & over 2.5 6.7% 8.0% 20.7% 0.39× 12.56
Meshakhte Tkibuli & under 2.5 5.6% 8.0% 14.0% 0.57× 12.57
Draw & over 2.5 4.4% 4.9% 6.7% 0.73× 20.52
Draw & over 3.5 4.4% 4.9% 6.7% 0.73× 20.52
Meshakhte Tkibuli & under 1.5 3.8% 4.9% 9.7% 0.50× 20.53
Meshakhte Tkibuli & over 3.5 2.6% 4.9% 10.3% 0.47× 20.53
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Tbilisi (1UP) 76.5% 78.7% 1.27
Meshakhte Tkibuli (1UP) 28.7% 27.1% 3.69
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Tbilisi (2UP) 66.1% 68.5% 1.46
Meshakhte Tkibuli (2UP) 12.3% 13.3% 7.50
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Tbilisi to win 2nd half 53.2% 52.4% 1.91
2nd half drawn 32.3% 34.5% 2.90
Meshakhte Tkibuli to win 2nd half 14.5% 12.6% 7.96
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Tbilisi (+0.5) 87.7% 88.3% 65.7% 1.35× 1.13
Meshakhte Tkibuli (+2.5) 78.4% 78.3% 91.0% 0.86× 1.28
Dinamo Tbilisi (-0.5) 66.1% 68.7% 40.3% 1.70× 1.46
Meshakhte Tkibuli (+1.5) 57.9% 56.9% 81.7% 0.70× 1.76
Dinamo Tbilisi (-1.5) 42.1% 43.1% 18.3% 2.35× 2.32
Meshakhte Tkibuli (+0.5) 33.9% 31.3% 59.7% 0.52× 3.20
Dinamo Tbilisi (-2.5) 21.6% 21.7% 9.0% 2.41× 4.61
Meshakhte Tkibuli (-0.5) 12.3% 11.7% 34.3% 0.34× 8.58
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Meshakhte Tkibuli to concede 87.0% 86.2% 75.3% 1.14× 1.16
Meshakhte Tkibuli clean sheet 13.0% 13.8% 24.7% 0.56× 7.24
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Meshakhte Tkibuli to concede in 1st half 58.4% 58.5% 1.71
Meshakhte Tkibuli clean sheet in 1st half 41.6% 41.5% 2.41
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Meshakhte Tkibuli under 3.5 goals 99.2% 97.4% 94.7% 1.03× 1.03
Meshakhte Tkibuli under 2.5 goals 95.7% 97.4% 86.3% 1.13× 1.03
Meshakhte Tkibuli under 1.5 goals 81.9% 81.2% 66.0% 1.23× 1.23
Meshakhte Tkibuli over 0.5 goals 53.8% 53.7% 71.0% 0.76× 1.86
Meshakhte Tkibuli under 0.5 goals 46.2% 46.3% 29.0% 1.60× 2.16
Meshakhte Tkibuli over 1.5 goals 18.1% 18.8% 34.0% 0.55× 5.33
Meshakhte Tkibuli over 2.5 goals 4.3% 2.6% 13.7% 0.19× 38.73
Meshakhte Tkibuli over 3.5 goals 0.8% 2.6% 5.3% 0.48× 38.89
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Meshakhte Tkibuli under 1.5 in 1st half 96.1% 95.7% 1.05
Meshakhte Tkibuli under 0.5 in 1st half 73.4% 68.7% 1.46
Meshakhte Tkibuli over 0.5 in 1st half 26.6% 31.3% 3.19
Meshakhte Tkibuli over 1.5 in 1st half 3.9% 4.3% 23.36
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Tbilisi (away no bet) 75.4% 73.9% 61.1% 1.21× 1.35
Draw (away no bet) 24.6% 26.1% 38.9% 0.67× 3.84
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Meshakhte Tkibuli even goals 60.7% 58.4% 54.3% 1.08× 1.71
Meshakhte Tkibuli odd goals 39.3% 41.6% 45.7% 0.91× 2.41
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 83.9% 83.0% 1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals 16.1% 17.0% 5.90
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 65.9% 68.4% 1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals 34.1% 31.6% 3.17
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 61.5% 59.9% 1.67
Dinamo Tbilisi to score 2+ in a row 54.2% 51.4% 1.95
Either team to score 3+ in a row 27.9% 25.1% 3.99
Dinamo Tbilisi to score 3+ in a row 26.1% 25.0% 4.00
Meshakhte Tkibuli to score 2+ in a row 11.7% 12.1% 8.25
Meshakhte Tkibuli to score 3+ in a row 2.0% 2.5% 39.43
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-0 12.5% 11.4% 6.7% 1.70× 8.80
1-0 11.5% 11.4% 9.3% 1.22× 8.80
1-1 10.3% 11.4% 11.7% 0.97× 8.81
2-1 9.7% 7.4% 11.3% 0.65× 13.53
3-0 8.5% 7.4% 4.0% 1.85× 13.53
0-0 6.8% 7.4% 8.0% 0.92× 13.54
3-1 6.6% 7.4% 3.0% 2.46× 13.54
Any other score 5.7% 7.4% 3.3% 2.22× 13.54
0-1 3.8% 1.7% 9.7% 0.18× 57.56
0-2 1.8% 1.7% 4.7% 0.37× 57.57
0-3 0.5% 1.7% 2.0% 0.87× 57.58
0-4 0.1% 1.7% 1.3% 1.30× 57.58
1-2 3.7% 1.7% 9.0% 0.19× 57.56
1-3 0.9% 1.7% 3.0% 0.58× 57.58
1-4 0.2% 1.7% 2.3% 0.74× 57.58
2-2 3.7% 1.7% 6.0% 0.29× 57.56
2-3 1.0% 1.7% 2.7% 0.65× 57.58
2-4 0.2% 1.7% 1.3% 1.30× 57.58
3-2 2.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.04× 57.57
3-3 0.7% 1.7% 1.0% 1.74× 57.58
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.7% 2.61× 57.58
4-0 4.3% 1.7% 1.7% 1.04× 57.56
4-1 3.3% 1.7% 2.0% 0.87× 57.56
4-2 1.3% 1.7% 0.3% 5.21× 57.57
4-3 0.3% 1.7% 1.0% 1.74× 57.58
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 5.21× 57.58
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Tbilisi leading at HT (DNB) 79.5% 78.2% 1.28
Meshakhte Tkibuli leading at HT (DNB) 20.5% 21.8% 4.59
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Tbilisi or draw (1X) 87.7% 86.4% 65.7% 1.32× 1.16
Dinamo Tbilisi or Meshakhte Tkibuli (12) 78.5% 75.4% 74.3% 1.01× 1.33
Meshakhte Tkibuli or draw (X2) 33.9% 34.1% 59.7% 0.57× 2.93
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Tbilisi or draw at HT 87.6% 88.2% 1.13
Dinamo Tbilisi or Meshakhte Tkibuli at HT 60.3% 62.0% 1.61
Meshakhte Tkibuli or draw at HT 52.1% 47.6% 2.10
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Tbilisi or draw (1UP) 87.7% 91.8% 1.09
Meshakhte Tkibuli or draw (1UP) 33.9% 39.1% 2.56
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Tbilisi or draw in 2nd half 85.5% 87.4% 1.14
Dinamo Tbilisi or Meshakhte Tkibuli in 2nd half 67.7% 65.5% 1.53
Meshakhte Tkibuli or draw in 2nd half 46.8% 47.6% 2.10
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 58.3% 58.0% 1.72
Neither half drawn 41.7% 42.0% 2.38
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Tbilisi (DNB) 84.3% 80.4% 54.0% 1.49× 1.24
Meshakhte Tkibuli (DNB) 15.7% 19.6% 46.0% 0.43× 5.11
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Tbilisi to score first 67.6% 69.3% 1.44
Meshakhte Tkibuli to score first 25.6% 28.0% 3.57
No goal scored 6.8% 7.5% 13.36
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 52.4% 51.6% 45.7% 1.13× 1.94
Both teams to score 47.6% 48.4% 54.3% 0.89× 2.07
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 37.3% 38.6% 43.0% 0.90× 2.59
Not both score & under 2.5 36.4% 38.6% 37.0% 1.04× 2.59
Not both score & over 2.5 16.0% 21.3% 9.0% 2.37× 4.69
Both score & under 2.5 10.3% 12.3% 11.7% 1.05× 8.15
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 89.0% 85.4% 87.0% 0.98× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 11.0% 14.6% 13.0% 1.12× 6.86
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 74.2% 74.1% 1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half 25.8% 25.9% 3.87
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 62.5% 66.4% 1.51
Both score 2nd half only 21.8% 20.8% 4.80
Both score 1st half only 11.7% 10.7% 9.34
Both score in both halves 4.0% 5.0% 19.93
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 84.3% 82.5% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 15.7% 17.5% 5.72
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 56.2% 57.2% 1.75
A half without a goal 43.8% 42.8% 2.34
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.8% 46.9% 47.3% 0.99× 2.13
4-6 goals 28.6% 27.0% 23.7% 1.14× 3.71
0-1 goals 22.1% 23.0% 26.3% 0.88× 4.34
7+ goals 2.5% 1.9% 3.3% 0.56× 53.88
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Meshakhte Tkibuli to score exactly 0 46.2% 42.1% 29.0% 1.45× 2.38
Meshakhte Tkibuli to score exactly 1 35.7% 35.8% 37.3% 0.96× 2.80
Meshakhte Tkibuli to score exactly 2 13.8% 13.0% 20.7% 0.63× 7.69
Meshakhte Tkibuli to score 3+ 4.3% 4.6% 13.7% 0.34× 21.65
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Tbilisi to score 3+ 33.4% 32.6% 15.0% 2.18× 3.06
Dinamo Tbilisi to score exactly 2 27.1% 26.1% 26.7% 0.98× 3.83
Dinamo Tbilisi to score exactly 1 26.5% 26.1% 34.3% 0.76× 3.83
Dinamo Tbilisi to score exactly 0 13.0% 14.3% 24.7% 0.58× 6.98
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Tbilisi leading at HT 47.9% 52.4% 1.91
Draw at HT 39.7% 38.0% 2.63
Meshakhte Tkibuli leading at HT 12.4% 11.8% 8.46
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Tbilisi -1: 1 42.1% 42.9% 2.33
Dinamo Tbilisi -1: 2 33.9% 29.3% 3.42
Dinamo Tbilisi -1: X 24.0% 23.7% 4.23
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Tbilisi (0:1) 42.1% 42.5% 18.3% 2.32× 2.35
Meshakhte Tkibuli (0:1) 33.9% 29.4% 59.7% 0.49× 3.40
Draw (0:1) 24.0% 24.4% 22.3% 1.09× 4.10
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Meshakhte Tkibuli (0:2) 57.9% 63.4% 81.7% 0.78× 1.58
Dinamo Tbilisi (0:2) 21.6% 20.0% 9.0% 2.22× 5.00
Draw (0:2) 20.5% 20.0% 9.7% 2.07× 5.01
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Meshakhte Tkibuli (0:3) 78.4% 80.4% 91.0% 0.88× 1.24
Draw (0:3) 12.4% 10.1% 5.7% 1.77× 9.95
Dinamo Tbilisi (0:3) 9.2% 5.9% 3.7% 1.61× 16.90
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Meshakhte Tkibuli (0:4) 90.8% 94.4% 96.3% 0.98× 1.06
Draw (0:4) 5.9% 4.8% 2.3% 2.07× 20.75
Dinamo Tbilisi (0:4) 3.3% 1.2% 1.7% 0.74× 81.62
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Tbilisi (1:0) 87.7% 86.2% 65.7% 1.31× 1.16
Draw (1:0) 8.6% 7.0% 21.0% 0.33× 14.28
Meshakhte Tkibuli (1:0) 3.8% 3.5% 13.7% 0.25× 28.73
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Tbilisi (2:0) 96.2% 96.5% 86.3% 1.12× 1.04
Draw (2:0) 2.9% 2.4% 8.3% 0.29× 41.33
Meshakhte Tkibuli (2:0) 0.8% 2.4% 5.7% 0.43× 41.44
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 46.9% 48.2% 2.08
1st half highest scoring 27.3% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 25.7% 26.5% 3.78
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Tbilisi to concede 53.8% 53.5% 71.0% 0.75× 1.87
Dinamo Tbilisi clean sheet 46.2% 46.5% 29.0% 1.60× 2.15
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Tbilisi clean sheet in 1st half 73.4% 68.2% 1.47
Dinamo Tbilisi to concede in 1st half 26.6% 31.8% 3.15
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Tbilisi over 0.5 goals 87.0% 87.2% 75.3% 1.16× 1.15
Dinamo Tbilisi under 3.5 goals 85.0% 87.2% 93.7% 0.93× 1.15
Dinamo Tbilisi under 2.5 goals 66.6% 67.9% 85.0% 0.80× 1.47
Dinamo Tbilisi over 1.5 goals 60.5% 63.3% 41.3% 1.53× 1.58
Dinamo Tbilisi under 1.5 goals 39.5% 36.7% 58.7% 0.63× 2.72
Dinamo Tbilisi over 2.5 goals 33.4% 32.1% 15.0% 2.14× 3.11
Dinamo Tbilisi over 3.5 goals 15.0% 12.8% 6.3% 2.03× 7.79
Dinamo Tbilisi under 0.5 goals 13.0% 12.8% 24.7% 0.52× 7.80
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Tbilisi under 1.5 in 1st half 78.1% 77.2% 1.30
Dinamo Tbilisi over 0.5 in 1st half 58.4% 58.2% 1.72
Dinamo Tbilisi under 0.5 in 1st half 41.6% 41.8% 2.39
Dinamo Tbilisi over 1.5 in 1st half 21.9% 22.8% 4.39
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 63.6% 60.0% 42.8% 1.40× 1.67
Meshakhte Tkibuli (home no bet) 36.4% 40.0% 57.2% 0.70× 2.50
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Tbilisi even goals 50.8% 50.4% 55.7% 0.91× 1.98
Dinamo Tbilisi odd goals 49.2% 49.6% 44.3% 1.12× 2.02
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 30.7% 32.2% 3.11
HT 1-0 26.7% 28.8% 3.47
HT 2-0 11.8% 10.9% 9.16
HT 0-1 9.3% 7.1% 13.99
HT 1-1 8.4% 7.1% 14.01
Any other HT score 6.3% 7.1% 14.04
HT 2-1 3.6% 2.3% 43.44
HT 0-2 1.5% 2.3% 43.60
HT 1-2 1.3% 2.3% 43.61
HT 2-2 0.6% 2.3% 43.66
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Tbilisi at HT / Dinamo Tbilisi at FT 42.8% 43.3% 2.31
Draw at HT / Dinamo Tbilisi at FT 20.6% 21.7% 4.61
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 13.7% 12.7% 7.89
Meshakhte Tkibuli at HT / Meshakhte Tkibuli at FT 6.1% 6.0% 16.71
Draw at HT / Meshakhte Tkibuli at FT 5.3% 6.0% 16.73
Dinamo Tbilisi at HT / Draw at FT 4.2% 3.5% 28.76
Meshakhte Tkibuli at HT / Draw at FT 3.6% 3.5% 28.78
Meshakhte Tkibuli at HT / Dinamo Tbilisi at FT 2.7% 3.5% 28.82
Dinamo Tbilisi at HT / Meshakhte Tkibuli at FT 1.0% 3.5% 28.88
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Tbilisi to score last 67.8% 70.2% 1.42
Meshakhte Tkibuli to score last 25.4% 26.7% 3.74
No goal scored 6.8% 7.5% 13.36
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 93.2% 92.6% 1.08
Dinamo Tbilisi to lead by 1 at any time 76.5% 78.1% 1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 54.5% 50.8% 1.97
Dinamo Tbilisi to lead by 2 at any time 47.8% 44.0% 2.27
Meshakhte Tkibuli to lead by 1 at any time 28.7% 25.5% 3.92
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 25.5% 25.4% 3.93
Dinamo Tbilisi to lead by 3 at any time 24.2% 19.6% 5.09
Meshakhte Tkibuli to lead by 2 at any time 6.9% 6.6% 15.13
Meshakhte Tkibuli to lead by 3 at any time 1.3% 1.6% 63.10
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.6% 87.4% 86.7% 1.01× 1.14
1-4 goals 77.8% 78.5% 79.0% 0.99× 1.27
2-6 goals 75.4% 78.5% 70.7% 1.11× 1.27
2-5 goals 71.3% 72.2% 68.3% 1.06× 1.38
2-4 goals 62.5% 63.1% 60.7% 1.04× 1.58
1-3 goals 62.1% 63.1% 65.7% 0.96× 1.58
3-6 goals 50.9% 53.4% 48.7% 1.10× 1.87
2-3 goals 46.8% 48.5% 47.3% 1.02× 2.06
3-5 goals 46.7% 48.4% 46.3% 1.05× 2.06
1-2 goals 39.9% 39.3% 40.7% 0.97× 2.55
3-4 goals 37.9% 39.3% 38.7% 1.02× 2.55
4-6 goals 28.6% 30.6% 23.7% 1.29× 3.26
4-5 goals 24.5% 24.8% 21.3% 1.16× 4.03
5-6 goals 12.9% 15.1% 10.3% 1.46× 6.64
7+ goals 2.5% 2.6% 3.3% 0.77× 38.90
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Tbilisi never behind 64.5% 67.8% 1.48
Meshakhte Tkibuli never behind 16.7% 18.6% 5.39
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.2% 50.9% 53.7% 0.95× 1.96
Even number of goals 51.8% 49.1% 46.3% 1.06× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.9% 51.7% 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 45.1% 48.3% 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.5% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.5% 48.0% 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 93.4% 92.2% 94.3% 0.98× 1.09
Over 0.5 goals 93.2% 92.2% 92.0% 1.00× 1.09
Under 4.5 goals 84.6% 82.1% 86.7% 0.95× 1.22
Over 1.5 goals 77.9% 77.2% 73.7% 1.05× 1.30
Under 3.5 goals 68.9% 66.0% 73.3% 0.90× 1.52
Over 2.5 goals 53.3% 53.0% 51.7% 1.03× 1.89
Under 2.5 goals 46.7% 47.0% 48.3% 0.97× 2.13
Over 3.5 goals 31.1% 34.0% 26.7% 1.28× 2.94
Under 1.5 goals 22.1% 22.8% 26.3% 0.87× 4.39
Over 4.5 goals 15.4% 17.9% 13.3% 1.34× 5.60
Over 5.5 goals 6.6% 7.8% 5.7% 1.38× 12.82
Under 0.5 goals 6.8% 7.8% 8.0% 0.98× 12.82
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.4% 97.2% 96.6% 1.01× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 92.8% 92.4% 93.9% 0.98× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 81.7% 80.5% 84.6% 0.95× 1.24
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 70.7% 72.2% 66.2% 1.09× 1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 60.0% 61.6% 64.4% 0.96× 1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 40.0% 38.4% 35.6% 1.08× 2.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 29.3% 27.8% 33.8% 0.82× 3.60
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 18.3% 19.5% 15.4% 1.27× 5.12
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 7.2% 7.6% 6.1% 1.24× 13.13
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.6% 2.9% 3.4% 0.84× 35.08
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 88.3% 89.0% 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 69.3% 69.1% 1.45
Under 1.5 in 1st half 66.6% 69.0% 1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half 33.4% 31.0% 3.23
Under 0.5 in 1st half 30.7% 30.9% 3.24
Over 2.5 in 1st half 11.7% 11.0% 9.11
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 80.1% 82.7% 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 77.7% 79.7% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 51.4% 53.3% 1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 48.6% 46.7% 2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 22.3% 20.3% 4.94
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 20.0% 17.3% 5.78
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Meshakhte Tkibuli not to score in both halves 90.2% 89.7% 1.11
Dinamo Tbilisi not to score in both halves 59.9% 57.8% 1.73
Dinamo Tbilisi to score in both halves 40.1% 42.2% 2.37
Meshakhte Tkibuli to score in both halves 9.8% 10.3% 9.74
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 47.6% 50.4% 54.3% 0.93× 1.98
Only Dinamo Tbilisi scores 39.4% 39.7% 21.3% 1.86× 2.52
Neither team scores 6.8% 7.1% 8.0% 0.89× 14.02
Only Meshakhte Tkibuli scores 6.2% 7.1% 17.0% 0.42× 14.03
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 24.6% 22.4% 22.3% 1.00× 4.46
Exactly 3 goals 22.3% 22.4% 25.3% 0.89× 4.46
Exactly 4 goals 15.7% 17.5% 13.7% 1.28× 5.70
Exactly 1 goals 15.3% 17.5% 18.7% 0.94× 5.70
Exactly 5 goals 8.8% 7.8% 8.0% 0.97× 12.83
Exactly 0 goals 6.8% 7.8% 8.0% 0.97× 12.83
6 or more goals 6.6% 7.8% 5.7% 1.38× 12.83
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 48.6% 44.9% 2.23
1 goal in 2nd half 31.4% 33.3% 3.00
No goals in 2nd half 20.0% 17.3% 5.77
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Meshakhte Tkibuli not to win both halves 98.2% 97.3% 1.03
Dinamo Tbilisi not to win both halves 74.3% 73.0% 1.37
Dinamo Tbilisi to win both halves 25.7% 27.0% 3.71
Meshakhte Tkibuli to win both halves 1.8% 2.7% 36.50
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Tbilisi to win either half 75.4% 79.5% 1.26
Meshakhte Tkibuli to win neither half 75.0% 73.1% 1.37
Meshakhte Tkibuli to win either half 25.0% 26.9% 3.71
Dinamo Tbilisi to win neither half 24.6% 20.5% 4.88
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Meshakhte Tkibuli not to win to nil 93.8% 92.1% 83.0% 1.11× 1.09
Dinamo Tbilisi not to win to nil 60.6% 66.9% 78.7% 0.85× 1.49
Dinamo Tbilisi to win to nil 39.4% 33.1% 21.3% 1.55× 3.03
Meshakhte Tkibuli to win to nil 6.2% 7.9% 17.0% 0.47× 12.64
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dinamo Tbilisi by 1 24.0% 24.2% 22.3% 1.08× 4.14
Dinamo Tbilisi by 3+ 21.6% 24.2% 9.0% 2.68× 4.14
Draw 21.5% 24.2% 25.7% 0.94× 4.14
Dinamo Tbilisi by 2 20.5% 24.2% 9.7% 2.50× 4.14
Meshakhte Tkibuli by 1 8.6% 7.3% 21.0% 0.35× 13.73
Meshakhte Tkibuli by 2 2.9% 2.8% 8.3% 0.34× 35.53
Meshakhte Tkibuli by 3+ 0.8% 2.8% 5.7% 0.50× 35.59
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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