Djurgården v GAIS — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 14 September 2026 · SWE-Allsvenskan · 2627

SWE-Allsvenskan results-only Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 11:44 UTC

Djurgården

17:00 UTC

GAIS

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 153h before kick-off

Djurgården win

51.1%

model 52.3%

Draw

27.2%

model 27.4%

GAIS win

21.7%

model 20.3%

512722

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (419 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 13.3%
1-1 12.8%
2-0 10.7%
0-0 10.0%
2-1 9.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	42.6%	Under 2.5	57.4%
BTTS yes	45.8%	BTTS no	54.2%
Djurgården 1+	78.3%	Djurgården 2+	45.1%
GAIS 1+	57.6%	GAIS 2+	21.2%

Expected goals 1.53 – 0.86. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

23/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Draw (home no bet)

Home no bet · usually 38%

56.1% fair odds 1.78

strong signal · 4795 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Djurgården or draw at HT

Double chance 1HT

83.6% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 961 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Djurgården carry the stronger rating, 1665 Elo against 1568.
Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0255 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Djurgården have an estimated 51.1% win probability, against 27.2% for the draw and 21.7% for GAIS. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.53 for Djurgården and 0.86 for GAIS.

Why Djurgården

Djurgården carry the stronger rating, 1665 Elo against 1568. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.2%. A combined 2.38 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why GAIS can win

They have had 14 days' rest to Djurgården's 7.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Djurgården, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for GAIS, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Djurgården: 48% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 5.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. GAIS: 53% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Djurgården are the model's most likely outcome at 51.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 13.3%. Confidence 23/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	522720	1.53–0.86	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	482923	1.40–0.90	1-1 13%	41%	46%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Djurgården to win	52.3%	51.6%	40.4%	1.28×	1.94
Draw	27.4%	27.3%	23.0%	1.19×	3.66
GAIS to win	20.3%	23.5%	36.9%	0.64×	4.26

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Djurgården & not both score	32.5%	31.0%	23.5%	1.32×	3.23
Djurgården & both teams score	19.8%	18.2%	17.2%	1.06×	5.49
Draw & both teams score	17.4%	18.2%	17.7%	1.03×	5.49
GAIS & not both score	11.7%	12.6%	18.9%	0.67×	7.91
Draw & not both score	10.0%	7.7%	5.6%	1.38×	13.04
GAIS & both teams score	8.6%	7.7%	18.2%	0.42×	13.04

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Djurgården & over 1.5	39.0%	36.6%	34.3%	1.07×	2.73
Djurgården & under 3.5	38.7%	36.6%	26.0%	1.41×	2.73
Djurgården & over 2.5	28.2%	26.5%	25.3%	1.05×	3.78
Djurgården & under 2.5	24.1%	21.8%	15.4%	1.42×	4.59
Draw & under 2.5	22.8%	21.8%	18.2%	1.20×	4.59
Draw & under 3.5	22.8%	21.8%	18.2%	1.20×	4.59
Draw & over 1.5	17.4%	17.7%	17.7%	1.00×	5.66
GAIS & under 3.5	16.7%	17.7%	25.5%	0.69×	5.66
Djurgården & under 1.5	13.3%	12.5%	6.3%	1.97×	8.03
Djurgården & over 3.5	13.5%	12.5%	14.6%	0.85×	8.03
GAIS & over 1.5	13.2%	12.5%	27.8%	0.45×	8.03
GAIS & under 2.5	10.5%	12.5%	14.1%	0.88×	8.03
Draw & under 1.5	10.0%	7.6%	5.6%	1.37×	13.17
GAIS & over 2.5	9.8%	7.6%	23.0%	0.33×	13.17
GAIS & under 1.5	7.1%	7.6%	9.3%	0.81×	13.17
Draw & over 2.5	4.6%	4.3%	5.1%	0.86×	22.99
Draw & over 3.5	4.6%	4.3%	5.1%	0.86×	22.99
GAIS & over 3.5	3.7%	4.3%	11.6%	0.37×	23.00

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Djurgården (1UP)	64.7%	66.1%	—	—	1.51
GAIS (1UP)	36.2%	39.1%	—	—	2.56

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Djurgården (2UP)	52.3%	55.9%	—	—	1.79
GAIS (2UP)	20.3%	22.8%	—	—	4.39

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Djurgården to win 2nd half	41.6%	40.8%	—	—	2.45
2nd half drawn	38.1%	36.9%	—	—	2.71
GAIS to win 2nd half	20.3%	22.3%	—	—	4.49

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
GAIS (+2.5)	88.8%	87.4%	88.6%	0.99×	1.14
Djurgården (+0.5)	79.7%	78.3%	63.1%	1.24×	1.28
GAIS (+1.5)	72.5%	72.8%	76.5%	0.95×	1.37
Djurgården (-0.5)	52.3%	52.0%	40.4%	1.29×	1.92
GAIS (+0.5)	47.7%	48.0%	59.6%	0.81×	2.08
Djurgården (-1.5)	27.5%	27.2%	23.5%	1.16×	3.68
GAIS (-0.5)	20.3%	21.7%	36.9%	0.59×	4.60
Djurgården (-2.5)	11.2%	12.6%	11.4%	1.11×	7.93

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
GAIS to concede	78.3%	78.6%	75.8%	1.04×	1.27
GAIS clean sheet	21.7%	21.4%	24.2%	0.88×	4.67

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
GAIS clean sheet in 1st half	51.9%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
GAIS to concede in 1st half	48.1%	46.8%	—	—	2.14

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
GAIS under 6.5 corners	86.0%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
GAIS under 5.5 corners	76.3%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
GAIS over 2.5 corners	72.5%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
GAIS under 4.5 corners	62.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
GAIS over 3.5 corners	54.4%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
GAIS under 3.5 corners	45.6%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
GAIS over 4.5 corners	37.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
GAIS under 2.5 corners	27.5%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
GAIS over 5.5 corners	23.7%	24.1%	—	—	4.16
GAIS over 6.5 corners	14.0%	14.8%	—	—	6.74

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
GAIS under 3.5 goals	98.9%	97.3%	94.9%	1.03×	1.03
GAIS under 2.5 goals	94.4%	92.1%	81.6%	1.13×	1.09
GAIS under 1.5 goals	78.8%	76.4%	60.9%	1.26×	1.31
GAIS over 0.5 goals	57.6%	58.4%	71.2%	0.82×	1.71
GAIS under 0.5 goals	42.4%	41.6%	28.8%	1.44×	2.41
GAIS over 1.5 goals	21.2%	23.6%	39.1%	0.60×	4.25
GAIS over 2.5 goals	5.6%	7.9%	18.4%	0.43×	12.62
GAIS over 3.5 goals	1.1%	2.7%	5.1%	0.53×	37.50

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
GAIS under 1.5 in 1st half	95.3%	95.2%	—	—	1.05
GAIS under 0.5 in 1st half	71.0%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
GAIS over 0.5 in 1st half	29.0%	31.5%	—	—	3.17
GAIS over 1.5 in 1st half	4.7%	4.8%	—	—	21.02

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Djurgården (away no bet)	65.6%	66.7%	63.7%	1.05×	1.50
Draw (away no bet)	34.4%	33.3%	36.3%	0.92×	3.00

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
GAIS even goals	59.0%	56.5%	53.3%	1.06×	1.77
GAIS odd goals	41.0%	43.5%	46.7%	0.93×	2.30

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	89.4%	86.9%	—	—	1.15
Both halves over 1.5 goals	10.6%	13.1%	—	—	7.66

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	56.5%	60.2%	—	—	1.66
Both halves under 1.5 goals	43.5%	39.8%	—	—	2.52

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	50.3%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Djurgården to score 2+ in a row	38.8%	36.2%	—	—	2.76
Either team to score 3+ in a row	17.5%	17.4%	—	—	5.76
GAIS to score 2+ in a row	15.2%	17.3%	—	—	5.77
Djurgården to score 3+ in a row	14.6%	12.8%	—	—	7.81
GAIS to score 3+ in a row	3.1%	3.1%	—	—	32.79

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Djurgården corners (+3.5)	93.2%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Djurgården corners (+2.5)	88.7%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Djurgården corners (+1.5)	82.3%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
GAIS corners (+3.5)	68.4%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
GAIS corners (+2.5)	58.1%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Djurgården corners (-1.5)	52.9%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
GAIS corners (+1.5)	47.1%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Djurgården corners (-2.5)	41.9%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Djurgården corners (-3.5)	31.6%	34.3%	—	—	2.92
GAIS corners (-1.5)	17.7%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
GAIS corners (-2.5)	11.3%	15.5%	—	—	6.46
GAIS corners (-3.5)	6.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	37.9%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
9-11 corners	31.0%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
12+ corners	31.1%	33.2%	—	—	3.01

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	77.0%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	72.6%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	68.9%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	62.1%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	59.4%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	51.1%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	48.9%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	40.6%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	37.9%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 11.5 corners	31.1%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Under 7.5 corners	27.4%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Over 12.5 corners	23.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	13.3%	11.2%	6.3%	1.78×	8.90
1-1	12.8%	11.2%	12.9%	0.87×	8.90
2-0	10.7%	11.2%	9.3%	1.20×	8.90
0-0	10.0%	7.4%	5.6%	1.34×	13.48
0-1	7.1%	7.4%	9.3%	0.79×	13.48
1-2	5.2%	7.4%	8.1%	0.92×	13.49
2-1	9.2%	7.4%	5.8%	1.28×	13.48
3-0	5.5%	7.4%	5.3%	1.40×	13.49
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	2.3%	0.76×	58.11
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.5%	3.41×	58.11
Any other score	2.2%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.11
0-2	3.4%	1.7%	5.1%	0.34×	58.10
0-3	1.0%	1.7%	3.8%	0.45×	58.11
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.0%	1.70×	58.11
1-3	1.5%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.11
1-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.3%	1.36×	58.11
2-2	3.9%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.10
2-3	1.1%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.11
2-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.0%	1.70×	58.11
3-1	4.7%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.10
3-2	2.0%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.11
3-3	0.6%	1.7%	1.0%	1.70×	58.11
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.8%	2.27×	58.11
4-0	2.1%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.11
4-1	1.8%	1.7%	1.5%	1.14×	58.11
4-2	0.8%	1.7%	0.5%	3.41×	58.11

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Djurgården leading at HT (DNB)	69.4%	71.0%	—	—	1.41
GAIS leading at HT (DNB)	30.6%	29.0%	—	—	3.45

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Djurgården or draw (1X)	79.7%	76.5%	63.1%	1.21×	1.31
Djurgården or GAIS (12)	72.6%	72.7%	77.0%	0.94×	1.38
GAIS or draw (X2)	47.7%	48.4%	59.6%	0.81×	2.07

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Djurgården or draw at HT	83.4%	83.6%	—	—	1.20
GAIS or draw at HT	62.4%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Djurgården or GAIS at HT	54.2%	54.1%	—	—	1.85

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Djurgården or draw (1UP)	79.7%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
GAIS or draw (1UP)	47.7%	52.3%	—	—	1.91

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Djurgården or draw in 2nd half	79.7%	77.7%	—	—	1.29
Djurgården or GAIS in 2nd half	61.9%	63.1%	—	—	1.58
GAIS or draw in 2nd half	58.4%	59.2%	—	—	1.69

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	65.6%	65.3%	—	—	1.53
Neither half drawn	34.4%	34.7%	—	—	2.88

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Djurgården (DNB)	72.0%	73.1%	52.3%	1.40×	1.37
GAIS (DNB)	28.0%	26.9%	47.7%	0.56×	3.72

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Djurgården to score first	57.7%	59.5%	—	—	1.68
GAIS to score first	32.4%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
No goal scored	10.0%	6.4%	—	—	15.75

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	54.2%	51.8%	47.5%	1.09×	1.93
Both teams to score	45.8%	48.2%	52.5%	0.92×	2.08

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	44.6%	41.7%	34.6%	1.20×	2.40
Both score & over 2.5	33.0%	34.0%	39.9%	0.85×	2.94
Both score & under 2.5	12.8%	11.9%	12.9%	0.92×	8.41
Not both score & over 2.5	9.6%	8.5%	13.1%	0.64×	11.81

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	90.4%	89.7%	84.3%	1.06×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	9.6%	10.3%	15.7%	0.66×	9.71

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	76.4%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	23.6%	25.9%	—	—	3.87

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	65.5%	64.6%	—	—	1.55
Both score 2nd half only	20.4%	23.3%	—	—	4.30
Both score 1st half only	10.8%	11.9%	—	—	8.41
Both score in both halves	3.3%	4.6%	—	—	21.77

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	85.9%	84.9%	—	—	1.18
Both teams to score by HT	14.1%	15.1%	—	—	6.61

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	52.3%	52.5%	—	—	1.90
A goal in each half	47.7%	47.5%	—	—	2.11

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.8%	46.6%	48.7%	0.96×	2.15
0-1 goals	30.4%	30.8%	20.7%	1.49×	3.24
4-6 goals	20.7%	23.3%	26.3%	0.89×	4.29
7+ goals	1.1%	2.0%	4.8%	0.41×	50.28

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
GAIS to score exactly 0	42.4%	39.5%	28.8%	1.37×	2.53
GAIS to score exactly 1	36.4%	36.0%	32.3%	1.11×	2.78
GAIS to score exactly 2	15.6%	18.4%	21.0%	0.88×	5.44
GAIS to score 3+	5.6%	8.7%	18.4%	0.47×	11.54

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Djurgården to score exactly 1	33.2%	32.1%	32.8%	0.98×	3.12
Djurgården to score exactly 2	25.3%	26.4%	22.0%	1.20×	3.79
Djurgården to score exactly 0	21.7%	22.9%	24.2%	0.94×	4.37
Djurgården to score 3+	19.8%	18.3%	21.5%	0.85×	5.45

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	45.8%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
Djurgården leading at HT	37.6%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
GAIS leading at HT	16.6%	16.4%	—	—	6.08

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Djurgården -1: 2	47.7%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
Djurgården -1: 1	27.5%	26.9%	—	—	3.72
Djurgården -1: X	24.8%	23.2%	—	—	4.30

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
GAIS (0:1)	47.7%	47.7%	59.6%	0.80×	2.10
Djurgården (0:1)	27.5%	27.4%	23.5%	1.17×	3.65
Draw (0:1)	24.8%	23.5%	17.2%	1.37×	4.25

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
GAIS (0:2)	72.5%	74.5%	76.5%	0.97×	1.34
Draw (0:2)	16.3%	15.7%	12.4%	1.27×	6.37
Djurgården (0:2)	11.2%	11.4%	11.4%	1.00×	8.79

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
GAIS (0:3)	88.8%	88.6%	88.6%	1.00×	1.13
Draw (0:3)	7.5%	6.4%	6.8%	0.94×	15.57
Djurgården (0:3)	3.7%	2.6%	4.8%	0.54×	38.95

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
GAIS (0:4)	96.3%	97.7%	95.2%	1.03×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.7%	1.4%	3.8%	0.37×	70.53
Djurgården (0:4)	1.0%	1.4%	1.3%	1.12×	70.59

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Djurgården (1:0)	79.7%	77.3%	63.1%	1.22×	1.29
Draw (1:0)	13.6%	12.5%	20.5%	0.61×	8.02
GAIS (1:0)	6.8%	7.5%	16.7%	0.45×	13.32

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Djurgården (2:0)	93.2%	92.9%	83.3%	1.11×	1.08
Draw (2:0)	5.1%	6.7%	10.4%	0.64×	14.99
GAIS (2:0)	1.6%	2.7%	6.6%	0.42×	36.37

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	45.1%	48.5%	—	—	2.06
Halves equal	28.3%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
1st half highest scoring	26.6%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Djurgården to concede	57.6%	59.4%	71.2%	0.83×	1.68
Djurgården clean sheet	42.4%	40.6%	28.8%	1.41×	2.46

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Djurgården clean sheet in 1st half	71.0%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Djurgården to concede in 1st half	29.0%	32.4%	—	—	3.08

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Djurgården over 2.5 corners	89.1%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Djurgården over 3.5 corners	78.4%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Djurgården over 4.5 corners	65.0%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Djurgården under 6.5 corners	62.4%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Djurgården over 5.5 corners	50.8%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Djurgården under 5.5 corners	49.2%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Djurgården over 6.5 corners	37.6%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Djurgården under 4.5 corners	35.0%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Djurgården under 3.5 corners	21.7%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Djurgården under 2.5 corners	10.9%	13.7%	—	—	7.29

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Djurgården under 3.5 goals	93.1%	92.3%	90.7%	1.02×	1.08
Djurgården under 2.5 goals	80.2%	82.2%	78.5%	1.05×	1.22
Djurgården over 0.5 goals	78.3%	77.9%	75.8%	1.03×	1.28
Djurgården under 1.5 goals	54.9%	53.3%	56.8%	0.94×	1.88
Djurgården over 1.5 goals	45.1%	46.7%	43.2%	1.08×	2.14
Djurgården under 0.5 goals	21.7%	22.1%	24.2%	0.91×	4.53
Djurgården over 2.5 goals	19.8%	17.8%	21.5%	0.83×	5.61
Djurgården over 3.5 goals	6.9%	7.7%	9.3%	0.82×	13.04

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Djurgården under 1.5 in 1st half	85.9%	87.2%	—	—	1.15
Djurgården under 0.5 in 1st half	51.9%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Djurgården over 0.5 in 1st half	48.1%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Djurgården over 1.5 in 1st half	14.1%	12.8%	—	—	7.83

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	57.4%	56.1%	38.4%	1.46×	1.78
GAIS (home no bet)	42.6%	43.9%	61.6%	0.71×	2.28

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Djurgården even goals	52.4%	50.9%	54.0%	0.94×	1.96
Djurgården odd goals	47.6%	49.1%	46.0%	1.07×	2.04

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	36.9%	35.4%	—	—	2.82
HT 1-0	24.0%	22.2%	—	—	4.50
HT 0-1	12.5%	10.9%	—	—	9.14
HT 1-1	8.4%	8.0%	—	—	12.45
HT 2-0	7.9%	8.0%	—	—	12.46
Any other HT score	3.4%	2.5%	—	—	40.39
HT 2-1	2.7%	2.5%	—	—	40.43
HT 0-2	2.2%	2.5%	—	—	40.45
HT 1-2	1.4%	2.5%	—	—	40.49
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.5%	—	—	40.53

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Djurgården at HT / Djurgården at FT	31.4%	33.4%	—	—	2.99
Draw at HT / Djurgården at FT	18.7%	17.2%	—	—	5.82
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	18.3%	17.2%	—	—	5.82
GAIS at HT / GAIS at FT	10.1%	12.2%	—	—	8.22
Draw at HT / GAIS at FT	8.9%	6.4%	—	—	15.52
Djurgården at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.7%	—	—	27.26
GAIS at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.7%	—	—	27.28
GAIS at HT / Djurgården at FT	2.2%	3.7%	—	—	27.33
Djurgården at HT / GAIS at FT	1.3%	3.7%	—	—	27.36

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Djurgården to score last	57.8%	58.0%	—	—	1.73
GAIS to score last	32.3%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
No goal scored	10.0%	6.4%	—	—	15.75

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	90.0%	93.6%	—	—	1.07
Djurgården to lead by 1 at any time	64.7%	64.1%	—	—	1.56
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	43.0%	41.3%	—	—	2.42
GAIS to lead by 1 at any time	36.2%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Djurgården to lead by 2 at any time	32.7%	31.7%	—	—	3.16
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	15.4%	17.3%	—	—	5.79
Djurgården to lead by 3 at any time	13.0%	11.0%	—	—	9.10
GAIS to lead by 2 at any time	10.3%	11.0%	—	—	9.13
GAIS to lead by 3 at any time	2.3%	2.5%	—	—	40.63

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Djurgården most corners	63.9%	60.5%	—	—	1.65
GAIS most corners	26.1%	30.9%	—	—	3.23
Corners level	10.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.63

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.6%	87.1%	86.6%	1.01×	1.15
1-4 goals	80.6%	82.0%	78.0%	1.05×	1.22
1-3 goals	68.2%	68.2%	63.9%	1.07×	1.47
2-6 goals	68.5%	68.2%	74.7%	0.91×	1.47
2-5 goals	66.1%	68.2%	71.5%	0.95×	1.47
2-4 goals	60.2%	62.7%	62.9%	1.00×	1.60
1-2 goals	47.4%	47.4%	41.9%	1.13×	2.11
2-3 goals	47.8%	47.4%	48.7%	0.97×	2.11
3-6 goals	41.5%	43.7%	48.2%	0.91×	2.29
3-5 goals	39.2%	39.0%	44.9%	0.87×	2.56
3-4 goals	33.2%	34.6%	36.4%	0.95×	2.89
4-6 goals	20.7%	23.8%	26.3%	0.91×	4.20
4-5 goals	18.3%	18.8%	23.0%	0.82×	5.31
5-6 goals	8.3%	8.9%	12.1%	0.74×	11.18
7+ goals	1.1%	2.2%	4.8%	0.47×	44.61

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Djurgården never behind	53.9%	59.5%	—	—	1.68
GAIS never behind	25.3%	30.9%	—	—	3.24

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	51.9%	50.0%	50.5%	0.99×	2.00
Odd number of goals	48.1%	50.0%	49.5%	1.01×	2.00

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	57.0%	55.1%	—	—	1.81
Odd goals in 1st half	43.0%	44.9%	—	—	2.23

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.7%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.3%	48.4%	—	—	2.06

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.5%	96.0%	91.9%	1.04×	1.04
Over 0.5 goals	90.0%	92.3%	94.4%	0.98×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	90.6%	92.3%	83.3%	1.11×	1.08
Under 3.5 goals	78.2%	77.0%	69.2%	1.11×	1.30
Over 1.5 goals	69.6%	67.5%	79.3%	0.85×	1.48
Under 2.5 goals	57.4%	57.5%	47.2%	1.22×	1.74
Over 2.5 goals	42.6%	42.5%	52.8%	0.81×	2.35
Under 1.5 goals	30.4%	32.5%	20.7%	1.57×	3.08
Over 3.5 goals	21.8%	23.0%	30.8%	0.75×	4.35
Under 0.5 goals	10.0%	7.7%	5.6%	1.39×	12.94
Over 4.5 goals	9.4%	7.7%	16.7%	0.46×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	3.5%	4.0%	8.1%	0.49×	25.25

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.9%	97.3%	95.0%	1.02×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	96.3%	97.3%	91.2%	1.07×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	89.3%	86.7%	80.6%	1.08×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	72.5%	71.7%	60.5%	1.18×	1.40
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	58.3%	58.0%	71.8%	0.81×	1.73
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	41.7%	42.0%	28.2%	1.49×	2.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	27.5%	28.3%	39.5%	0.72×	3.54
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	10.7%	13.3%	19.4%	0.69×	7.49
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	3.7%	2.7%	8.8%	0.31×	36.67
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.1%	2.7%	5.0%	0.55×	36.71

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	92.0%	91.7%	—	—	1.09
Under 1.5 in 1st half	73.5%	73.4%	—	—	1.36
Over 0.5 in 1st half	63.1%	64.3%	—	—	1.56
Under 0.5 in 1st half	36.9%	35.7%	—	—	2.80
Over 1.5 in 1st half	26.5%	26.6%	—	—	3.76
Over 2.5 in 1st half	8.0%	8.3%	—	—	11.99

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	83.7%	82.7%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	74.7%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	59.4%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	40.6%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	25.3%	24.2%	—	—	4.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	16.3%	17.3%	—	—	5.77

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
GAIS not to score in both halves	88.3%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Djurgården not to score in both halves	72.0%	72.8%	—	—	1.37
Djurgården to score in both halves	28.0%	27.2%	—	—	3.67
GAIS to score in both halves	11.7%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	45.8%	50.6%	52.5%	0.96×	1.98
Only Djurgården scores	32.5%	31.7%	23.5%	1.35×	3.15
Only GAIS scores	11.7%	11.1%	18.9%	0.58×	9.04
Neither team scores	10.0%	7.2%	5.6%	1.29×	13.96

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	27.0%	25.0%	26.8%	0.93×	4.01
Exactly 3 goals	20.8%	22.3%	22.2%	1.00×	4.49
Exactly 1 goals	20.4%	22.3%	15.4%	1.45×	4.49
Exactly 4 goals	12.4%	12.3%	14.4%	0.86×	8.13
Exactly 0 goals	10.0%	7.8%	5.6%	1.40×	12.88
Exactly 5 goals	5.9%	7.8%	8.8%	0.88×	12.89
6 or more goals	3.5%	4.1%	8.1%	0.50×	24.66

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	40.6%	43.4%	—	—	2.31
1 goal in 2nd half	34.2%	34.4%	—	—	2.91
No goals in 2nd half	25.3%	26.6%	—	—	3.76

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
GAIS not to win both halves	96.6%	97.4%	—	—	1.03
Djurgården not to win both halves	84.2%	82.6%	—	—	1.21
Djurgården to win both halves	15.8%	17.4%	—	—	5.74
GAIS to win both halves	3.4%	2.6%	—	—	38.70

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
GAIS to win neither half	66.6%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Djurgården to win either half	63.4%	64.1%	—	—	1.56
Djurgården to win neither half	36.6%	35.9%	—	—	2.79
GAIS to win either half	33.4%	32.0%	—	—	3.13

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
GAIS not to win to nil	88.3%	88.1%	81.1%	1.09×	1.14
Djurgården not to win to nil	67.5%	69.3%	76.5%	0.91×	1.44
Djurgården to win to nil	32.5%	30.7%	23.5%	1.31×	3.26
GAIS to win to nil	11.7%	11.9%	18.9%	0.63×	8.40

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	27.4%	27.4%	23.0%	1.19×	3.65
Djurgården by 1	24.8%	23.3%	17.2%	1.36×	4.29
Djurgården by 2	16.3%	17.3%	12.4%	1.40×	5.78
GAIS by 1	13.6%	11.8%	20.5%	0.58×	8.46
Djurgården by 3+	11.2%	11.8%	11.4%	1.04×	8.46
GAIS by 2	5.1%	7.3%	10.4%	0.71×	13.66
GAIS by 3+	1.6%	3.0%	6.6%	0.45×	33.83