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Dundee United v Kilmarnock — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 December 2026 · SCO-Premiership · 2627

SCO-Premiership results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Dundee United win
48.1%
model 45.1%
Draw
22.6%
model 23.7%
Kilmarnock win
29.3%
model 31.2%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 10.9%
  2. 2-1 9.2%
  3. 1-0 8.4%
  4. 1-2 7.4%
  5. 2-0 6.8%

Goals

Over 2.557.7% Under 2.542.3%
BTTS yes59.7% BTTS no40.3%
Dundee United 1+81.0% Dundee United 2+49.4%
Kilmarnock 1+73.9% Kilmarnock 2+38.8%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.34. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
79/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
Under 12.5 corners
Corners O/U
80.7% fair odds 1.24
moderate signal · 8635 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Dundee United over 0.5 goals
Home goals O/U · usually 80%
82.6% fair odds 1.21
moderate signal · 1431 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Dundee United carry the stronger rating, 1439 Elo against 1393.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Dundee United have an estimated 48.1% win probability, against 29.3% for Kilmarnock and 22.6% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.66 for Dundee United and 1.34 for Kilmarnock.

Why Dundee United

Dundee United carry the stronger rating, 1439 Elo against 1393.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.6%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Kilmarnock can win

Nothing in the data singles out Kilmarnock.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Dundee United, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Kilmarnock, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Dundee United: 51% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 16.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Kilmarnock: 45% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 17.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Dundee United are the model's most likely outcome at 48.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.9%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.66–1.34 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.74–1.36 1-1 11% 60% 61%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United to win 46.6% 47.4% 45.9% 1.03× 2.11
Kilmarnock to win 30.3% 30.4% 31.0% 0.98× 3.29
Draw 23.1% 24.5% 23.3% 1.05× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United & both teams score 25.4% 25.2% 18.6% 1.35× 3.97
Dundee United & not both score 21.2% 21.8% 27.5% 0.79× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 18.8% 18.0% 17.8% 1.01× 5.56
Kilmarnock & both teams score 17.1% 18.0% 16.3% 1.10× 5.57
Kilmarnock & not both score 13.2% 13.3% 14.9% 0.89× 7.54
Draw & not both score 4.4% 4.9% 5.8% 0.84× 20.49
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United & over 1.5 38.7% 34.9% 36.6% 0.95× 2.87
Dundee United & over 2.5 31.9% 30.7% 28.1% 1.09× 3.25
Dundee United & under 3.5 28.0% 26.1% 30.2% 0.86× 3.84
Kilmarnock & over 1.5 24.0% 21.6% 24.4% 0.89× 4.63
Kilmarnock & over 2.5 19.9% 18.0% 20.5% 0.88× 5.55
Dundee United & over 3.5 18.6% 18.0% 15.9% 1.13× 5.55
Draw & over 1.5 18.8% 18.0% 17.8% 1.01× 5.55
Kilmarnock & under 3.5 19.6% 18.0% 22.5% 0.80× 5.55
Dundee United & under 2.5 14.7% 12.8% 18.0% 0.71× 7.79
Draw & under 2.5 14.9% 12.8% 14.9% 0.86× 7.79
Draw & under 3.5 14.9% 12.8% 14.9% 0.86× 7.79
Kilmarnock & under 2.5 10.4% 12.8% 10.7% 1.19× 7.79
Kilmarnock & over 3.5 10.7% 12.8% 8.7% 1.48× 7.79
Dundee United & under 1.5 7.9% 7.9% 9.5% 0.83× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 8.3% 7.9% 8.7% 0.91× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 8.3% 7.9% 8.7% 0.91× 12.63
Kilmarnock & under 1.5 6.2% 7.9% 6.8% 1.16× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 4.4% 4.8% 5.8% 0.83× 20.81
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United (1UP) 63.5% 62.9% — — 1.59
Kilmarnock (1UP) 49.7% 44.0% — — 2.27
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United (2UP) 46.6% 50.0% — — 2.00
Kilmarnock (2UP) 30.3% 30.1% — — 3.32
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United to win 2nd half 38.5% 36.5% — — 2.74
2nd half drawn 32.5% 34.0% — — 2.94
Kilmarnock to win 2nd half 29.0% 26.1% — — 3.83
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock under 1.5 in 2nd half 80.2% 84.0% — — 1.19
Kilmarnock over 0.5 in 2nd half 55.9% 54.3% — — 1.84
Kilmarnock under 0.5 in 2nd half 44.1% 45.7% — — 2.19
Kilmarnock over 1.5 in 2nd half 19.8% 16.0% — — 6.25
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United under 1.5 in 2nd half 73.8% 74.5% — — 1.34
Dundee United over 0.5 in 2nd half 62.9% 63.2% — — 1.58
Dundee United under 0.5 in 2nd half 37.1% 36.8% — — 2.71
Dundee United over 1.5 in 2nd half 26.2% 25.5% — — 3.92
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock (+2.5) 89.2% 88.5% 87.8% 1.01× 1.13
Kilmarnock (+1.5) 75.1% 78.5% 73.6% 1.07× 1.27
Dundee United (+0.5) 69.7% 68.7% 69.0% 1.00× 1.46
Kilmarnock (+0.5) 53.4% 52.4% 54.1% 0.97× 1.91
Dundee United (-0.5) 46.6% 47.6% 45.9% 1.04× 2.10
Kilmarnock (-0.5) 30.3% 31.3% 31.0% 1.01× 3.19
Dundee United (-1.5) 24.9% 21.5% 26.4% 0.81× 4.65
Dundee United (-2.5) 10.8% 11.5% 12.2% 0.95× 8.68
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock to concede 82.5% 81.5% 79.5% 1.02× 1.23
Kilmarnock clean sheet 17.5% 18.5% 20.5% 0.91× 5.40
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock to concede in 1st half 52.7% 50.9% — — 1.97
Kilmarnock clean sheet in 1st half 47.3% 49.1% — — 2.04
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock to concede in 2nd half 62.9% 61.8% — — 1.62
Kilmarnock clean sheet in 2nd half 37.1% 38.2% — — 2.62
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock under 6.5 corners 80.1% 81.4% — — 1.23
Kilmarnock over 2.5 corners 78.6% 76.1% — — 1.32
Kilmarnock under 5.5 corners 68.8% 67.6% — — 1.48
Kilmarnock over 3.5 corners 62.5% 61.7% — — 1.62
Kilmarnock under 4.5 corners 54.1% 53.1% — — 1.88
Kilmarnock over 4.5 corners 45.9% 46.9% — — 2.13
Kilmarnock under 3.5 corners 37.5% 38.3% — — 2.61
Kilmarnock over 5.5 corners 31.2% 32.4% — — 3.09
Kilmarnock under 2.5 corners 21.4% 23.9% — — 4.18
Kilmarnock over 6.5 corners 19.9% 18.6% — — 5.37
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock under 3.5 goals 95.0% 97.5% 96.3% 1.01× 1.03
Kilmarnock under 2.5 goals 84.2% 81.5% 85.5% 0.95× 1.23
Kilmarnock over 0.5 goals 74.4% 71.8% 66.9% 1.07× 1.39
Kilmarnock under 1.5 goals 60.5% 63.2% 63.2% 1.00× 1.58
Kilmarnock over 1.5 goals 39.5% 36.8% 36.8% 1.00× 2.72
Kilmarnock under 0.5 goals 25.6% 28.2% 33.1% 0.85× 3.55
Kilmarnock over 2.5 goals 15.8% 18.5% 14.5% 1.28× 5.41
Kilmarnock over 3.5 goals 5.0% 2.5% 3.7% 0.68× 39.72
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock under 1.5 in 1st half 89.6% 89.4% — — 1.12
Kilmarnock under 0.5 in 1st half 58.0% 62.4% — — 1.60
Kilmarnock over 0.5 in 1st half 42.0% 37.6% — — 2.66
Kilmarnock over 1.5 in 1st half 10.4% 10.6% — — 9.39
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock scores more in 2nd half 39.1% 37.4% — — 2.68
Kilmarnock scores equally in both 38.3% 37.4% — — 2.68
Kilmarnock scores more in 1st half 22.6% 21.8% — — 4.59
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United (away no bet) 66.8% 66.4% 66.3% 1.00× 1.51
Draw (away no bet) 33.2% 33.6% 33.7% 1.00× 2.98
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock even goals 53.3% 52.6% 57.6% 0.91× 1.90
Kilmarnock odd goals 46.7% 47.4% 42.4% 1.12× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 79.9% 81.0% — — 1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals 20.1% 19.0% — — 5.27
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 71.0% 67.6% — — 1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals 29.0% 32.4% — — 3.08
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 62.5% 60.0% — — 1.67
Dundee United to score 2+ in a row 42.1% 38.7% — — 2.58
Kilmarnock to score 2+ in a row 29.1% 25.0% — — 4.00
Either team to score 3+ in a row 24.2% 19.6% — — 5.11
Dundee United to score 3+ in a row 16.2% 16.1% — — 6.20
Kilmarnock to score 3+ in a row 8.5% 5.5% — — 18.10
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United corners (+3.5) 87.0% 84.5% — — 1.18
Kilmarnock corners (+3.5) 80.8% 79.8% — — 1.25
Dundee United corners (+2.5) 80.2% 79.8% — — 1.25
Kilmarnock corners (+2.5) 72.3% 70.8% — — 1.41
Dundee United corners (+1.5) 71.3% 70.8% — — 1.41
Kilmarnock corners (+1.5) 62.0% 61.9% — — 1.62
Dundee United corners (-1.5) 38.0% 38.1% — — 2.62
Kilmarnock corners (-1.5) 28.7% 29.2% — — 3.42
Dundee United corners (-2.5) 27.7% 29.2% — — 3.42
Kilmarnock corners (-2.5) 19.8% 20.2% — — 4.94
Dundee United corners (-3.5) 19.2% 20.2% — — 4.94
Kilmarnock corners (-3.5) 13.0% 15.5% — — 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 41.7% 38.3% — — 2.61
9-11 corners 31.0% 33.2% — — 3.01
12+ corners 27.3% 31.2% — — 3.21
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 80.3% 80.7% — — 1.24
Under 11.5 corners 72.7% 72.5% — — 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 69.4% 67.8% — — 1.48
Under 10.5 corners 63.4% 63.3% — — 1.58
Over 8.5 corners 58.3% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 9.5 corners 52.9% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 9.5 corners 47.1% 46.8% — — 2.14
Under 8.5 corners 41.7% 42.1% — — 2.37
Over 10.5 corners 36.6% 36.7% — — 2.72
Under 7.5 corners 30.6% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 11.5 corners 27.3% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 19.7% 19.3% — — 5.17
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 10.5% 11.5% 9.3% 1.23× 8.72
2-1 9.3% 7.4% 7.0% 1.05× 13.51
1-0 7.9% 7.4% 9.5% 0.78× 13.51
1-2 7.3% 7.4% 8.9% 0.83× 13.51
2-0 6.8% 7.4% 8.7% 0.85× 13.51
0-1 6.2% 7.4% 6.8% 1.09× 13.51
2-2 6.3% 7.4% 6.6% 1.12× 13.51
3-1 5.4% 7.4% 5.6% 1.33× 13.51
0-0 4.4% 1.7% 5.8% 0.30× 58.29
0-2 4.2% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.30
0-3 1.9% 1.7% 3.3% 0.52× 58.31
0-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.4% 4.15× 58.32
1-3 3.3% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.30
1-4 1.1% 1.7% 0.8% 2.08× 58.31
2-3 2.9% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.30
2-4 1.0% 1.7% 0.8% 2.08× 58.31
3-0 4.0% 1.7% 5.6% 0.31× 58.30
3-2 3.7% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.30
3-3 1.7% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.31
3-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.4% 4.15× 58.32
4-0 1.7% 1.7% 3.5% 0.49× 58.31
4-1 2.3% 1.7% 1.4% 1.19× 58.31
4-2 1.6% 1.7% 0.6% 2.77× 58.31
4-3 0.7% 1.7% 0.8% 2.08× 58.32
4-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.2% 8.30× 58.32
Any other score 4.5% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.29
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United (2nd half DNB) 57.1% 59.5% — — 1.68
Kilmarnock (2nd half DNB) 42.9% 40.5% — — 2.47
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United leading at HT (DNB) 60.4% 66.2% — — 1.51
Kilmarnock leading at HT (DNB) 39.6% 33.8% — — 2.96
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United or Kilmarnock (12) 76.9% 75.5% 76.7% 0.99× 1.32
Dundee United or draw (1X) 69.7% 69.6% 69.0% 1.01× 1.44
Kilmarnock or draw (X2) 53.4% 52.6% 54.1% 0.97× 1.90
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United or draw at HT 76.2% 79.6% — — 1.26
Kilmarnock or draw at HT 63.6% 61.0% — — 1.64
Dundee United or Kilmarnock at HT 60.2% 60.9% — — 1.64
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United or draw (1UP) 69.7% 76.6% — — 1.31
Kilmarnock or draw (1UP) 53.4% 58.7% — — 1.70
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United or draw in 2nd half 71.0% 73.9% — — 1.35
Dundee United or Kilmarnock in 2nd half 67.5% 66.0% — — 1.52
Kilmarnock or draw in 2nd half 61.5% 63.5% — — 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 59.5% 58.9% — — 1.70
Neither half drawn 40.5% 41.1% — — 2.43
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United (DNB) 60.6% 62.6% 59.7% 1.05× 1.60
Kilmarnock (DNB) 39.4% 37.4% 40.3% 0.93× 2.68
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United to score first 53.7% 53.4% — — 1.87
Kilmarnock to score first 42.0% 41.7% — — 2.40
No goal scored 4.4% 4.4% — — 22.77
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 61.2% 56.6% 52.3% 1.08× 1.77
Not both teams to score 38.8% 43.4% 47.7% 0.91× 2.31
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 50.7% 47.2% 43.2% 1.09× 2.12
Not both score & under 2.5 29.5% 33.3% 34.1% 0.98× 3.00
Both score & under 2.5 10.5% 12.4% 9.3% 1.33× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 9.3% 8.3% 13.8% 0.60× 12.06
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 79.5% 79.8% 83.9% 0.95× 1.25
Both teams to score 2+ 20.5% 20.2% 16.1% 1.25× 4.95
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 64.9% 66.0% — — 1.51
Both teams to score in 2nd half 35.1% 34.0% — — 2.95
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 50.5% 54.6% — — 1.83
Both score 2nd half only 27.3% 26.8% — — 3.74
Both score 1st half only 14.3% 10.8% — — 9.29
Both score in both halves 7.8% 6.8% — — 14.72
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 77.9% 81.0% — — 1.24
Both teams to score by HT 22.1% 19.0% — — 5.26
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 60.7% 59.3% — — 1.69
A half without a goal 39.3% 40.7% — — 2.46
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 43.8% 42.2% 45.7% 0.92× 2.37
4-6 goals 33.7% 30.7% 31.2% 0.99× 3.25
0-1 goals 18.5% 20.2% 21.7% 0.93× 4.94
7+ goals 3.9% 1.8% 1.9% 0.99× 54.17
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock to score exactly 1 34.9% 33.8% 30.4% 1.11× 2.96
Kilmarnock to score exactly 0 25.6% 27.4% 33.1% 0.83× 3.65
Kilmarnock to score exactly 2 23.8% 22.3% 22.5% 0.99× 4.49
Kilmarnock to score 3+ 15.8% 19.5% 14.5% 1.35× 5.12
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United to score exactly 1 30.5% 32.6% 31.2% 1.04× 3.07
Dundee United to score exactly 2 26.6% 26.6% 25.0% 1.06× 3.77
Dundee United to score 3+ 25.4% 26.6% 23.8% 1.12× 3.77
Dundee United to score exactly 0 17.5% 18.8% 20.5% 0.92× 5.32
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 39.8% 39.1% — — 2.56
Dundee United leading at HT 36.4% 39.0% — — 2.56
Kilmarnock leading at HT 23.8% 20.4% — — 4.89
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United -1: 2 53.4% 52.2% — — 1.92
Dundee United -1: 1 24.9% 23.5% — — 4.25
Dundee United -1: X 21.7% 23.5% — — 4.25
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock (0:1) 53.4% 51.3% 54.1% 0.95× 1.95
Dundee United (0:1) 24.9% 24.2% 26.4% 0.92× 4.13
Draw (0:1) 21.7% 24.2% 19.6% 1.23× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock (0:2) 75.1% 79.3% 73.6% 1.08× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 14.1% 11.0% 14.5% 0.76× 9.09
Dundee United (0:2) 10.8% 11.0% 12.2% 0.90× 9.11
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock (0:3) 89.2% 90.6% 87.8% 1.03× 1.10
Draw (0:3) 6.9% 5.8% 6.8% 0.85× 17.25
Dundee United (0:3) 3.9% 2.4% 5.6% 0.43× 41.97
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock (0:4) 96.1% 98.1% 94.4% 1.04× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.7% 1.2% 4.8% 0.26× 81.67
Dundee United (0:4) 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 1.18× 81.84
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United (1:0) 69.7% 70.2% 69.0% 1.02× 1.42
Draw (1:0) 17.0% 17.1% 17.8% 0.96× 5.85
Kilmarnock (1:0) 13.3% 12.7% 13.4% 0.95× 7.87
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United (2:0) 86.7% 88.5% 86.6% 1.02× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 8.6% 6.4% 7.6% 0.84× 15.64
Kilmarnock (2:0) 4.7% 2.3% 6.0% 0.38× 43.64
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 49.7% 48.6% — — 2.06
1st half highest scoring 27.5% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 22.8% 24.5% — — 4.08
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United to concede 74.4% 73.0% 66.9% 1.09× 1.37
Dundee United clean sheet 25.6% 27.0% 33.1% 0.82× 3.71
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United clean sheet in 1st half 58.0% 62.4% — — 1.60
Dundee United to concede in 1st half 42.0% 37.6% — — 2.66
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United to concede in 2nd half 55.9% 54.7% — — 1.83
Dundee United clean sheet in 2nd half 44.1% 45.3% — — 2.21
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United over 2.5 corners 83.1% 81.0% — — 1.24
Dundee United under 6.5 corners 74.2% 71.9% — — 1.39
Dundee United over 3.5 corners 68.9% 66.7% — — 1.50
Dundee United under 5.5 corners 61.8% 62.3% — — 1.61
Dundee United over 4.5 corners 53.1% 52.6% — — 1.90
Dundee United under 4.5 corners 46.9% 47.4% — — 2.11
Dundee United over 5.5 corners 38.2% 37.7% — — 2.65
Dundee United under 3.5 corners 31.1% 33.3% — — 3.01
Dundee United over 6.5 corners 25.8% 28.1% — — 3.56
Dundee United under 2.5 corners 16.9% 19.0% — — 5.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United under 3.5 goals 90.1% 92.2% 92.1% 1.00× 1.09
Dundee United over 0.5 goals 82.5% 82.2% 79.5% 1.03× 1.22
Dundee United under 2.5 goals 74.6% 74.2% 76.2% 0.97× 1.35
Dundee United over 1.5 goals 52.0% 53.2% 48.6% 1.10× 1.88
Dundee United under 1.5 goals 48.0% 46.8% 51.4% 0.91× 2.14
Dundee United over 2.5 goals 25.4% 25.8% 23.8% 1.08× 3.88
Dundee United under 0.5 goals 17.5% 17.8% 20.5% 0.87× 5.62
Dundee United over 3.5 goals 9.9% 7.8% 7.9% 0.99× 12.81
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United under 1.5 in 1st half 82.7% 84.2% — — 1.19
Dundee United over 0.5 in 1st half 52.7% 50.6% — — 1.97
Dundee United under 0.5 in 1st half 47.3% 49.4% — — 2.03
Dundee United over 1.5 in 1st half 17.3% 15.8% — — 6.33
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United scores more in 2nd half 40.1% 41.6% — — 2.40
Dundee United scores equally in both 33.2% 33.2% — — 3.01
Dundee United scores more in 1st half 26.7% 27.8% — — 3.59
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock (home no bet) 56.7% 56.4% 57.0% 0.99× 1.77
Draw (home no bet) 43.3% 43.6% 43.0% 1.02× 2.29
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United even goals 51.5% 50.8% 51.7% 0.98× 1.97
Dundee United odd goals 48.5% 49.3% 48.3% 1.02× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 27.4% 28.4% — — 3.52
HT 1-0 20.6% 24.3% — — 4.11
HT 0-1 15.0% 11.0% — — 9.08
HT 1-1 11.2% 11.0% — — 9.11
HT 2-0 7.7% 6.9% — — 14.54
Any other HT score 5.8% 6.9% — — 14.57
HT 2-1 4.2% 2.4% — — 42.15
HT 0-2 4.1% 2.4% — — 42.15
HT 1-2 3.1% 2.4% — — 42.22
HT 2-2 1.1% 2.4% — — 42.35
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United at HT / Dundee United at FT 28.3% 27.4% — — 3.65
Kilmarnock at HT / Kilmarnock at FT 16.1% 16.8% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / Dundee United at FT 15.4% 16.7% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 12.8% 12.7% — — 7.89
Draw at HT / Kilmarnock at FT 11.6% 12.7% — — 7.90
Dundee United at HT / Draw at FT 5.5% 6.0% — — 16.54
Kilmarnock at HT / Draw at FT 4.8% 3.5% — — 28.86
Kilmarnock at HT / Dundee United at FT 2.9% 3.5% — — 28.93
Dundee United at HT / Kilmarnock at FT 2.5% 3.5% — — 28.94
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United to score last 53.7% 52.2% — — 1.92
Kilmarnock to score last 42.0% 40.0% — — 2.50
No goal scored 4.4% 4.4% — — 22.77
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 95.6% 95.5% — — 1.05
Dundee United to lead by 1 at any time 63.5% 61.3% — — 1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 52.1% 50.6% — — 1.98
Kilmarnock to lead by 1 at any time 49.7% 44.4% — — 2.25
Dundee United to lead by 2 at any time 32.5% 29.7% — — 3.37
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 20.2% 19.5% — — 5.14
Kilmarnock to lead by 2 at any time 19.9% 14.9% — — 6.72
Dundee United to lead by 3 at any time 13.6% 10.6% — — 9.41
Kilmarnock to lead by 3 at any time 6.5% 6.6% — — 15.08
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United most corners 49.3% 47.0% — — 2.13
Kilmarnock most corners 39.3% 39.4% — — 2.54
Corners level 11.4% 10.4% — — 9.59
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.2% 87.4% 87.0% 1.00× 1.14
2-6 goals 77.6% 78.7% 76.7% 1.03× 1.27
1-4 goals 75.4% 78.7% 79.8% 0.99× 1.27
2-5 goals 72.0% 72.3% 71.1% 1.02× 1.38
2-4 goals 61.2% 63.3% 63.8% 0.99× 1.58
1-3 goals 58.0% 59.1% 61.6% 0.96× 1.69
3-6 goals 56.1% 59.1% 55.2% 1.07× 1.69
3-5 goals 50.5% 53.1% 49.6% 1.07× 1.88
2-3 goals 43.8% 43.6% 45.7% 0.95× 2.29
3-4 goals 39.7% 39.2% 42.4% 0.93× 2.55
1-2 goals 35.7% 39.2% 37.6% 1.04× 2.55
4-6 goals 33.7% 35.2% 31.2% 1.13× 2.84
4-5 goals 28.1% 30.2% 25.6% 1.18× 3.31
5-6 goals 16.4% 18.8% 13.0% 1.45× 5.31
7+ goals 3.9% 2.6% 1.9% 1.38× 39.09
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United never behind 45.9% 56.6% — — 1.77
Kilmarnock never behind 32.2% 36.3% — — 2.76
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.8% 50.9% 51.2% 0.99× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.2% 49.1% 48.8% 1.01× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.7% 51.8% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 46.3% 48.2% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.2% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.8% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 95.6% 95.4% 94.2% 1.01× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 90.5% 92.3% 92.6% 1.00× 1.08
Over 1.5 goals 81.5% 82.3% 78.3% 1.05× 1.22
Under 4.5 goals 79.7% 77.3% 85.3% 0.91× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 62.4% 61.7% 67.1% 0.92× 1.62
Over 2.5 goals 60.0% 58.7% 56.8% 1.03× 1.71
Under 2.5 goals 40.0% 41.3% 43.2% 0.96× 2.42
Over 3.5 goals 37.6% 38.3% 32.9% 1.17× 2.61
Over 4.5 goals 20.3% 22.7% 14.7% 1.55× 4.41
Under 1.5 goals 18.5% 17.7% 21.7% 0.82× 5.65
Over 5.5 goals 9.5% 7.7% 7.4% 1.04× 12.93
Under 0.5 goals 4.4% 4.6% 5.8% 0.79× 21.81
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 95.9% 97.2% 98.0% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 89.4% 86.8% 92.0% 0.94× 1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 76.4% 75.9% 72.4% 1.05× 1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 75.5% 75.9% 82.1% 0.92× 1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 51.5% 51.9% 56.8% 0.91× 1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 48.5% 48.1% 43.2% 1.11× 2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 24.5% 24.1% 17.9% 1.35× 4.14
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 23.6% 24.1% 27.6% 0.87× 4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 10.6% 13.3% 8.0% 1.65× 7.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 4.1% 2.8% 2.0% 1.43× 35.58
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 85.8% 89.0% — — 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 72.6% 71.3% — — 1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half 62.9% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half 37.1% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half 27.4% 28.7% — — 3.49
Over 2.5 in 1st half 14.2% 11.0% — — 9.08
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 83.7% 83.0% — — 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 72.8% 77.7% — — 1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 54.0% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 46.0% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 27.2% 22.3% — — 4.49
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 16.3% 17.0% — — 5.87
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock not to score in both halves 76.5% 78.4% — — 1.28
Dundee United not to score in both halves 66.8% 70.0% — — 1.43
Dundee United to score in both halves 33.2% 30.0% — — 3.33
Kilmarnock to score in both halves 23.5% 21.6% — — 4.63
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 61.2% 60.2% 52.3% 1.15× 1.66
Only Dundee United scores 21.2% 22.2% 27.5% 0.81× 4.50
Only Kilmarnock scores 13.2% 11.0% 14.9% 0.74× 9.06
Neither team scores 4.4% 4.6% 5.8% 0.80× 21.55
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.4% 22.6% 24.2% 0.93× 4.43
Exactly 2 goals 21.5% 22.6% 21.7% 1.04× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 17.4% 17.5% 18.4% 0.95× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 14.2% 12.1% 16.1% 0.75× 8.25
Exactly 5 goals 10.8% 12.1% 7.4% 1.63× 8.26
6 or more goals 9.5% 7.6% 7.4% 1.02× 13.13
Exactly 0 goals 4.4% 4.5% 5.8% 0.77× 22.33
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 35.5% 37.2% — — 2.69
No goals in 1st half 27.4% 28.6% — — 3.50
2 goals in 1st half 22.9% 21.5% — — 4.65
3+ goals in 1st half 14.2% 10.9% — — 9.16
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 54.0% 51.2% — — 1.95
1 goal in 2nd half 29.7% 29.2% — — 3.43
No goals in 2nd half 16.3% 16.7% — — 5.97
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock not to win both halves 93.1% 94.2% — — 1.06
Dundee United not to win both halves 86.0% 87.9% — — 1.14
Dundee United to win both halves 14.0% 12.1% — — 8.26
Kilmarnock to win both halves 6.9% 5.8% — — 17.16
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United to win either half 60.9% 64.9% — — 1.54
Kilmarnock to win neither half 54.1% 54.4% — — 1.84
Kilmarnock to win either half 45.9% 45.6% — — 2.19
Dundee United to win neither half 39.1% 35.1% — — 2.85
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock not to win to nil 86.8% 88.1% 85.1% 1.04× 1.14
Dundee United not to win to nil 78.8% 78.1% 72.5% 1.08× 1.28
Dundee United to win to nil 21.2% 21.9% 27.5% 0.80× 4.58
Kilmarnock to win to nil 13.2% 11.9% 14.9% 0.80× 8.41
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 23.1% 24.1% 23.3% 1.03× 4.15
Dundee United by 1 21.7% 24.1% 19.6% 1.23× 4.15
Kilmarnock by 1 17.0% 17.0% 17.8% 0.96× 5.87
Dundee United by 2 14.1% 11.8% 14.5% 0.81× 8.50
Dundee United by 3+ 10.8% 11.8% 12.2% 0.96× 8.51
Kilmarnock by 2 8.6% 7.2% 7.6% 0.94× 13.90
Kilmarnock by 3+ 4.7% 2.7% 6.0% 0.45× 36.83
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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