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Dundee United v St Johnstone — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 28 November 2026 · SCO-Premiership · 2627

SCO-Premiership results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Dundee United win
49.3%
model 49.6%
Draw
23.0%
model 24.5%
St Johnstone win
27.7%
model 25.9%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 11.7%
  2. 1-0 11.0%
  3. 2-1 9.5%
  4. 2-0 8.7%
  5. 0-1 7.5%

Goals

Over 2.550.6% Under 2.549.4%
BTTS yes52.9% BTTS no47.1%
Dundee United 1+80.0% Dundee United 2+47.8%
St Johnstone 1+66.3% St Johnstone 2+29.7%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.09. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
79/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Dundee United or draw (1X)
Double chance · usually 69%
72.7% fair odds 1.38
moderate signal · 1941 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Not both to score by HT
GG/NG half time
82.4% fair odds 1.21
moderate signal · 1272 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Dundee United carry the stronger rating, 1439 Elo against 1351.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Dundee United have an estimated 49.3% win probability, against 27.7% for St Johnstone and 23.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.61 for Dundee United and 1.09 for St Johnstone.

Why Dundee United

Dundee United carry the stronger rating, 1439 Elo against 1351.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.0%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why St Johnstone can win

Nothing in the data singles out St Johnstone.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Dundee United, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for St Johnstone, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Dundee United: 51% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 16.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. St Johnstone: 51% possession, 11.4 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Dundee United are the model's most likely outcome at 49.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.7%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.61–1.09 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.53–0.98 1-0 13% 46% 49%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United to win 50.3% 51.5% 45.9% 1.12× 1.94
Draw 25.4% 27.9% 23.3% 1.19× 3.59
St Johnstone to win 24.3% 24.5% 31.0% 0.79× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United & not both score 29.7% 25.2% 27.5% 0.92× 3.97
Dundee United & both teams score 20.7% 21.8% 18.6% 1.17× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 17.4% 18.0% 17.8% 1.01× 5.57
St Johnstone & not both score 13.6% 13.3% 14.9% 0.89× 7.54
St Johnstone & both teams score 10.6% 13.3% 16.3% 0.81× 7.54
Draw & not both score 8.0% 8.3% 5.8% 1.44× 12.00
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United & over 1.5 37.7% 34.9% 36.6% 0.95× 2.87
Dundee United & under 3.5 36.4% 34.9% 30.2% 1.16× 2.87
Dundee United & over 2.5 28.1% 26.1% 28.1% 0.93× 3.84
Dundee United & under 2.5 22.2% 21.6% 18.0% 1.20× 4.63
Draw & under 2.5 20.0% 21.6% 14.9% 1.45× 4.63
Draw & under 3.5 20.0% 21.6% 14.9% 1.45× 4.63
St Johnstone & under 3.5 19.2% 18.0% 22.5% 0.80× 5.55
Draw & over 1.5 17.4% 18.0% 17.8% 1.01× 5.56
St Johnstone & over 1.5 16.2% 18.0% 24.4% 0.74× 5.56
Dundee United & over 3.5 13.9% 12.8% 15.9% 0.81× 7.79
Dundee United & under 1.5 12.6% 12.8% 9.5% 1.35× 7.79
St Johnstone & over 2.5 12.3% 12.8% 20.5% 0.63× 7.79
St Johnstone & under 2.5 12.0% 12.8% 10.7% 1.19× 7.79
Draw & under 1.5 8.0% 7.9% 5.8% 1.37× 12.63
St Johnstone & under 1.5 8.1% 7.9% 6.8% 1.16× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 5.4% 7.9% 8.7% 0.91× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 5.4% 7.9% 8.7% 0.91× 12.63
St Johnstone & over 3.5 5.1% 7.9% 8.7% 0.91× 12.63
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United (1UP) 63.6% 62.9% — — 1.59
St Johnstone (1UP) 40.6% 38.5% — — 2.60
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United (2UP) 50.3% 55.1% — — 1.82
St Johnstone (2UP) 24.3% 23.9% — — 4.18
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United to win 2nd half 40.1% 41.8% — — 2.39
2nd half drawn 36.7% 36.4% — — 2.75
St Johnstone to win 2nd half 23.2% 24.4% — — 4.11
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone under 1.5 in 2nd half 88.3% 87.2% — — 1.15
St Johnstone under 0.5 in 2nd half 55.6% 54.3% — — 1.84
St Johnstone over 0.5 in 2nd half 44.4% 45.7% — — 2.19
St Johnstone over 1.5 in 2nd half 11.7% 12.8% — — 7.79
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United under 1.5 in 2nd half 78.2% 75.3% — — 1.33
Dundee United over 0.5 in 2nd half 58.2% 58.0% — — 1.72
Dundee United under 0.5 in 2nd half 41.8% 42.0% — — 2.38
Dundee United over 1.5 in 2nd half 21.8% 24.7% — — 4.05
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone (+2.5) 89.6% 88.5% 87.8% 1.01× 1.13
Dundee United (+0.5) 75.7% 78.5% 69.0% 1.14× 1.27
St Johnstone (+1.5) 74.3% 73.7% 73.6% 1.00× 1.36
Dundee United (-0.5) 50.3% 52.4% 45.9% 1.14× 1.91
St Johnstone (+0.5) 49.7% 47.6% 54.1% 0.88× 2.10
Dundee United (-1.5) 25.7% 26.3% 26.4% 1.00× 3.80
St Johnstone (-0.5) 24.3% 21.5% 31.0% 0.69× 4.65
Dundee United (-2.5) 10.4% 11.5% 12.2% 0.95× 8.68
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone to concede 78.4% 78.8% 79.5% 0.99× 1.27
St Johnstone clean sheet 21.6% 21.2% 20.5% 1.04× 4.71
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone clean sheet in 1st half 51.8% 50.8% — — 1.97
St Johnstone to concede in 1st half 48.2% 49.2% — — 2.03
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone to concede in 2nd half 58.2% 57.3% — — 1.74
St Johnstone clean sheet in 2nd half 41.8% 42.7% — — 2.34
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone under 6.5 corners 82.6% 81.4% — — 1.23
St Johnstone over 2.5 corners 76.3% 76.0% — — 1.32
St Johnstone under 5.5 corners 71.9% 71.6% — — 1.40
St Johnstone over 3.5 corners 59.3% 57.2% — — 1.75
St Johnstone under 4.5 corners 57.5% 57.2% — — 1.75
St Johnstone over 4.5 corners 42.5% 42.8% — — 2.34
St Johnstone under 3.5 corners 40.7% 42.8% — — 2.34
St Johnstone over 5.5 corners 28.1% 28.4% — — 3.52
St Johnstone under 2.5 corners 23.7% 24.0% — — 4.17
St Johnstone over 6.5 corners 17.4% 18.6% — — 5.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone under 3.5 goals 98.2% 97.5% 96.3% 1.01× 1.03
St Johnstone under 2.5 goals 92.4% 92.3% 85.5% 1.08× 1.08
St Johnstone under 1.5 goals 74.4% 71.8% 63.2% 1.14× 1.39
St Johnstone over 0.5 goals 62.4% 63.2% 66.9% 0.94× 1.58
St Johnstone under 0.5 goals 37.6% 36.8% 33.1% 1.11× 2.72
St Johnstone over 1.5 goals 25.6% 28.2% 36.8% 0.77× 3.55
St Johnstone over 2.5 goals 7.6% 7.7% 14.5% 0.53× 13.07
St Johnstone over 3.5 goals 1.8% 2.5% 3.7% 0.67× 39.88
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone under 1.5 in 1st half 94.1% 94.0% — — 1.06
St Johnstone under 0.5 in 1st half 67.7% 70.3% — — 1.42
St Johnstone over 0.5 in 1st half 32.3% 29.7% — — 3.37
St Johnstone over 1.5 in 1st half 5.9% 6.0% — — 16.63
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone scores equally in both 46.8% 48.2% — — 2.08
St Johnstone scores more in 2nd half 33.2% 33.3% — — 3.00
St Johnstone scores more in 1st half 20.0% 21.7% — — 4.60
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United (away no bet) 66.4% 66.4% 66.3% 1.00× 1.51
Draw (away no bet) 33.6% 33.6% 33.7% 1.00× 2.98
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone even goals 57.1% 56.9% 57.6% 0.99× 1.76
St Johnstone odd goals 42.9% 43.1% 42.4% 1.02× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 87.9% 87.9% — — 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 12.1% 12.1% — — 8.28
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 58.9% 60.5% — — 1.65
Both halves under 1.5 goals 41.1% 39.5% — — 2.53
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 52.2% 50.9% — — 1.97
Dundee United to score 2+ in a row 38.2% 36.5% — — 2.74
St Johnstone to score 2+ in a row 18.6% 16.2% — — 6.18
Either team to score 3+ in a row 18.1% 16.2% — — 6.19
Dundee United to score 3+ in a row 14.1% 12.2% — — 8.20
St Johnstone to score 3+ in a row 4.2% 2.6% — — 38.42
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United corners (+3.5) 90.2% 89.6% — — 1.12
Dundee United corners (+2.5) 84.5% 79.8% — — 1.25
Dundee United corners (+1.5) 76.8% 74.8% — — 1.34
St Johnstone corners (+3.5) 75.1% 74.8% — — 1.34
St Johnstone corners (+2.5) 65.7% 65.9% — — 1.52
St Johnstone corners (+1.5) 54.9% 52.4% — — 1.91
Dundee United corners (-1.5) 45.1% 47.6% — — 2.10
Dundee United corners (-2.5) 34.3% 34.1% — — 2.93
Dundee United corners (-3.5) 24.9% 25.2% — — 3.97
St Johnstone corners (-1.5) 23.2% 25.2% — — 3.97
St Johnstone corners (-2.5) 15.5% 20.2% — — 4.95
St Johnstone corners (-3.5) 9.8% 10.4% — — 9.59
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 39.2% 34.0% — — 2.94
9-11 corners 31.1% 33.2% — — 3.01
12+ corners 29.7% 31.2% — — 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 78.3% 76.6% — — 1.31
Over 7.5 corners 71.5% 72.5% — — 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 70.3% 72.5% — — 1.38
Over 8.5 corners 60.8% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 10.5 corners 60.9% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 9.5 corners 50.3% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 9.5 corners 49.7% 46.8% — — 2.14
Under 8.5 corners 39.2% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 10.5 corners 39.1% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 11.5 corners 29.7% 27.5% — — 3.64
Under 7.5 corners 28.5% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 21.7% 23.4% — — 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 12.6% 11.5% 9.5% 1.21× 8.71
1-1 12.0% 11.5% 9.3% 1.23× 8.71
2-0 9.5% 7.4% 8.7% 0.85× 13.51
2-1 9.3% 7.4% 7.0% 1.05× 13.51
0-0 8.0% 7.4% 5.8% 1.28× 13.51
0-1 8.1% 7.4% 6.8% 1.09× 13.51
1-2 6.0% 7.4% 8.9% 0.83× 13.51
3-0 4.9% 1.7% 5.6% 0.31× 58.29
3-1 4.8% 1.7% 5.6% 0.31× 58.29
0-2 3.9% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.30
0-3 1.3% 1.7% 3.3% 0.52× 58.31
0-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.4% 4.15× 58.32
1-3 1.9% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.31
1-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.8% 2.07× 58.32
2-2 4.6% 1.7% 6.6% 0.26× 58.29
2-3 1.5% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.31
2-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.8% 2.07× 58.32
3-2 2.3% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.31
3-3 0.8% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.31
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.4% 4.15× 58.32
4-0 1.9% 1.7% 3.5% 0.49× 58.31
4-1 1.8% 1.7% 1.4% 1.19× 58.31
4-2 0.9% 1.7% 0.6% 2.77× 58.31
4-3 0.3% 1.7% 0.8% 2.07× 58.32
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 8.30× 58.32
Any other score 2.3% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.31
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United (2nd half DNB) 63.3% 63.1% — — 1.59
St Johnstone (2nd half DNB) 36.7% 36.9% — — 2.71
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United leading at HT (DNB) 65.9% 73.4% — — 1.36
St Johnstone leading at HT (DNB) 34.1% 26.6% — — 3.77
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United or draw (1X) 75.7% 75.5% 69.0% 1.09× 1.32
Dundee United or St Johnstone (12) 74.6% 72.1% 76.7% 0.94× 1.39
St Johnstone or draw (X2) 49.7% 48.5% 54.1% 0.90× 2.06
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United or draw at HT 81.1% 84.0% — — 1.19
St Johnstone or draw at HT 63.5% 60.9% — — 1.64
Dundee United or St Johnstone at HT 55.4% 57.4% — — 1.74
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United or draw (1UP) 75.7% 83.5% — — 1.20
St Johnstone or draw (1UP) 49.7% 53.2% — — 1.88
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United or draw in 2nd half 76.8% 75.7% — — 1.32
Dundee United or St Johnstone in 2nd half 63.3% 63.6% — — 1.57
St Johnstone or draw in 2nd half 59.9% 58.2% — — 1.72
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 65.1% 68.0% — — 1.47
Neither half drawn 34.9% 32.0% — — 3.12
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United (DNB) 67.4% 67.4% 59.7% 1.13× 1.48
St Johnstone (DNB) 32.6% 32.6% 40.3% 0.81× 3.07
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United to score first 56.2% 62.4% — — 1.60
St Johnstone to score first 35.8% 32.6% — — 3.07
No goal scored 8.0% 7.6% — — 13.18
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 51.3% 51.3% 47.7% 1.07× 1.95
Both teams to score 48.7% 48.7% 52.3% 0.93× 2.05
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 42.1% 41.6% 34.1% 1.22× 2.41
Both score & over 2.5 36.7% 38.4% 43.2% 0.89× 2.60
Both score & under 2.5 12.0% 12.4% 9.3% 1.33× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 9.1% 8.3% 13.8% 0.60× 12.06
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 88.4% 85.6% 83.9% 1.02× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 11.6% 14.4% 16.1% 0.89× 6.96
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 74.2% 73.7% — — 1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half 25.8% 26.3% — — 3.81
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 62.7% 65.9% — — 1.52
Both score 2nd half only 21.7% 21.2% — — 4.71
Both score 1st half only 11.5% 10.7% — — 9.33
Both score in both halves 4.0% 4.9% — — 20.33
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 84.4% 83.5% — — 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 15.6% 16.5% — — 6.07
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 50.2% 52.5% — — 1.91
A goal in each half 49.8% 47.5% — — 2.10
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.9% 47.2% 45.7% 1.03× 2.12
0-1 goals 28.7% 26.6% 21.7% 1.23× 3.76
4-6 goals 23.0% 22.9% 31.2% 0.74× 4.36
7+ goals 1.4% 1.8% 1.9% 0.99× 54.42
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone to score exactly 0 37.6% 35.9% 33.1% 1.09× 2.78
St Johnstone to score exactly 1 36.8% 35.9% 30.4% 1.18× 2.78
St Johnstone to score exactly 2 18.0% 19.5% 22.5% 0.87× 5.12
St Johnstone to score 3+ 7.6% 8.5% 14.5% 0.59× 11.70
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United to score exactly 1 33.1% 32.6% 31.2% 1.04× 3.07
Dundee United to score exactly 2 25.4% 26.6% 25.0% 1.06× 3.77
Dundee United to score exactly 0 21.6% 23.3% 20.5% 1.14× 4.29
Dundee United to score 3+ 19.9% 18.8% 23.8% 0.79× 5.32
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 44.6% 42.6% — — 2.35
Dundee United leading at HT 36.5% 39.1% — — 2.56
St Johnstone leading at HT 18.9% 16.0% — — 6.24
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United -1: 2 49.7% 46.9% — — 2.13
Dundee United -1: 1 25.7% 26.5% — — 3.77
Dundee United -1: X 24.6% 23.5% — — 4.25
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone (0:1) 49.7% 46.1% 54.1% 0.85× 2.17
Dundee United (0:1) 25.7% 27.0% 26.4% 1.02× 3.70
Draw (0:1) 24.6% 24.2% 19.6% 1.23× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone (0:2) 74.3% 75.7% 73.6% 1.03× 1.32
Draw (0:2) 15.3% 15.2% 14.5% 1.05× 6.56
Dundee United (0:2) 10.4% 11.0% 12.2% 0.90× 9.11
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone (0:3) 89.6% 90.6% 87.8% 1.03× 1.10
Draw (0:3) 7.0% 5.8% 6.8% 0.85× 17.25
Dundee United (0:3) 3.4% 2.4% 5.6% 0.43× 41.99
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone (0:4) 96.6% 98.1% 94.4% 1.04× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.5% 1.2% 4.8% 0.26× 81.69
Dundee United (0:4) 1.0% 1.2% 1.0% 1.18× 81.86
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United (1:0) 75.7% 78.5% 69.0% 1.14× 1.27
Draw (1:0) 15.7% 17.1% 17.8% 0.96× 5.85
St Johnstone (1:0) 8.5% 6.9% 13.4% 0.51× 14.48
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United (2:0) 91.5% 94.0% 86.6% 1.09× 1.06
Draw (2:0) 6.2% 6.4% 7.6% 0.83× 15.67
St Johnstone (2:0) 2.3% 2.3% 6.0% 0.38× 43.78
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 46.7% 48.5% — — 2.06
1st half highest scoring 27.3% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 26.0% 26.2% — — 3.81
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United to concede 62.4% 63.6% 66.9% 0.95× 1.57
Dundee United clean sheet 37.6% 36.4% 33.1% 1.10× 2.75
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United clean sheet in 1st half 67.7% 70.7% — — 1.42
Dundee United to concede in 1st half 32.3% 29.3% — — 3.41
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United clean sheet in 2nd half 55.6% 54.7% — — 1.83
Dundee United to concede in 2nd half 44.4% 45.3% — — 2.21
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United over 2.5 corners 86.5% 86.2% — — 1.16
Dundee United over 3.5 corners 74.1% 71.9% — — 1.39
Dundee United under 6.5 corners 68.2% 66.7% — — 1.50
Dundee United over 4.5 corners 59.5% 57.5% — — 1.74
Dundee United under 5.5 corners 55.2% 57.5% — — 1.74
Dundee United over 5.5 corners 44.8% 42.5% — — 2.35
Dundee United under 4.5 corners 40.5% 42.5% — — 2.35
Dundee United over 6.5 corners 31.8% 33.3% — — 3.01
Dundee United under 3.5 corners 25.9% 28.1% — — 3.56
Dundee United under 2.5 corners 13.5% 13.8% — — 7.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United under 3.5 goals 93.0% 92.2% 92.1% 1.00× 1.08
Dundee United under 2.5 goals 80.1% 82.2% 76.2% 1.08× 1.22
Dundee United over 0.5 goals 78.4% 77.8% 79.5% 0.98× 1.29
Dundee United under 1.5 goals 54.8% 53.2% 51.4% 1.03× 1.88
Dundee United over 1.5 goals 45.2% 46.8% 48.6% 0.96× 2.14
Dundee United under 0.5 goals 21.6% 22.2% 20.5% 1.09× 4.50
Dundee United over 2.5 goals 19.9% 17.8% 23.8% 0.75× 5.61
Dundee United over 3.5 goals 7.0% 7.8% 7.9% 0.99× 12.84
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United under 1.5 in 1st half 85.9% 90.0% — — 1.11
Dundee United under 0.5 in 1st half 51.8% 50.6% — — 1.98
Dundee United over 0.5 in 1st half 48.2% 49.4% — — 2.03
Dundee United over 1.5 in 1st half 14.1% 10.0% — — 10.01
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United scores more in 2nd half 38.2% 38.1% — — 2.62
Dundee United scores equally in both 36.0% 38.1% — — 2.63
Dundee United scores more in 1st half 25.8% 27.8% — — 3.59
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 51.1% 51.4% 43.0% 1.20× 1.95
St Johnstone (home no bet) 48.9% 48.6% 57.0% 0.85× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United even goals 52.3% 50.8% 51.7% 0.98× 1.97
Dundee United odd goals 47.7% 49.2% 48.3% 1.02× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 35.0% 33.6% — — 2.98
HT 1-0 23.1% 24.4% — — 4.10
HT 0-1 13.7% 11.0% — — 9.09
HT 1-1 9.0% 6.9% — — 14.52
HT 2-0 7.6% 6.9% — — 14.54
Any other HT score 3.6% 2.4% — — 42.18
HT 2-1 3.0% 2.4% — — 42.23
HT 0-2 2.7% 2.4% — — 42.25
HT 1-2 1.8% 2.4% — — 42.31
HT 2-2 0.6% 2.4% — — 42.38
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United at HT / Dundee United at FT 30.0% 32.7% — — 3.06
Draw at HT / Dundee United at FT 18.0% 16.8% — — 5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 16.2% 16.8% — — 5.97
St Johnstone at HT / St Johnstone at FT 12.3% 12.7% — — 7.90
Draw at HT / St Johnstone at FT 10.4% 12.6% — — 7.91
Dundee United at HT / Draw at FT 4.9% 3.5% — — 28.86
St Johnstone at HT / Draw at FT 4.3% 3.5% — — 28.88
St Johnstone at HT / Dundee United at FT 2.3% 3.5% — — 28.95
Dundee United at HT / St Johnstone at FT 1.6% 3.5% — — 28.98
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United to score last 56.1% 56.6% — — 1.77
St Johnstone to score last 35.9% 38.6% — — 2.59
No goal scored 8.0% 7.6% — — 13.18
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 92.0% 92.5% — — 1.08
Dundee United to lead by 1 at any time 63.6% 61.3% — — 1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 44.1% 39.3% — — 2.55
St Johnstone to lead by 1 at any time 40.6% 39.1% — — 2.56
Dundee United to lead by 2 at any time 31.4% 29.7% — — 3.37
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 15.6% 14.8% — — 6.76
St Johnstone to lead by 2 at any time 12.8% 10.6% — — 9.43
Dundee United to lead by 3 at any time 12.4% 10.6% — — 9.44
St Johnstone to lead by 3 at any time 3.2% 1.6% — — 62.14
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United most corners 56.4% 55.6% — — 1.80
St Johnstone most corners 32.7% 34.4% — — 2.91
Corners level 10.9% 10.4% — — 9.59
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.8% 87.4% 87.0% 1.00× 1.14
1-4 goals 81.0% 83.4% 79.8% 1.05× 1.20
2-6 goals 69.8% 68.8% 76.7% 0.90× 1.45
1-3 goals 67.6% 68.8% 61.6% 1.12× 1.45
2-5 goals 67.0% 68.8% 71.1% 0.97× 1.45
2-4 goals 60.3% 63.3% 63.8% 0.99× 1.58
2-3 goals 46.9% 48.4% 45.7% 1.06× 2.06
1-2 goals 46.2% 48.4% 37.6% 1.29× 2.06
3-6 goals 44.4% 43.6% 55.2% 0.79× 2.29
3-5 goals 41.6% 43.6% 49.6% 0.88× 2.29
3-4 goals 34.8% 35.2% 42.4% 0.83× 2.84
4-6 goals 23.0% 24.5% 31.2% 0.78× 4.09
4-5 goals 20.2% 24.4% 25.6% 0.95× 4.09
5-6 goals 9.5% 8.9% 13.0% 0.68× 11.25
7+ goals 1.4% 2.6% 1.9% 1.37× 39.21
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United never behind 51.4% 62.3% — — 1.61
St Johnstone never behind 28.4% 29.9% — — 3.34
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 50.0% 50.9% 48.8% 1.04× 1.97
Even number of goals 50.0% 49.1% 51.2% 0.96× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 56.1% 57.7% — — 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 43.9% 42.3% — — 2.37
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.6% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.4% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 95.7% 95.4% 92.6% 1.03× 1.05
Over 0.5 goals 92.0% 92.3% 94.2% 0.98× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 89.0% 87.6% 85.3% 1.03× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 75.6% 77.3% 67.1% 1.15× 1.29
Over 1.5 goals 71.3% 72.5% 78.3% 0.93× 1.38
Under 2.5 goals 54.2% 52.5% 43.2% 1.22× 1.90
Over 2.5 goals 45.8% 47.5% 56.8% 0.84× 2.11
Under 1.5 goals 28.7% 27.5% 21.7% 1.27× 3.63
Over 3.5 goals 24.4% 22.7% 32.9% 0.69× 4.40
Over 4.5 goals 11.0% 12.4% 14.7% 0.84× 8.07
Under 0.5 goals 8.0% 7.7% 5.8% 1.34× 12.93
Over 5.5 goals 4.3% 4.6% 7.4% 0.62× 21.81
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.5% 97.2% 98.0% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 95.4% 97.2% 92.0% 1.06× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 87.3% 86.7% 82.1% 1.06× 1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 68.9% 67.5% 56.8% 1.19× 1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 61.5% 61.9% 72.4% 0.86× 1.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 38.5% 38.1% 27.6% 1.38× 2.63
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 31.1% 32.5% 43.2% 0.75× 3.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 12.7% 13.3% 17.9% 0.74× 7.54
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 4.6% 2.8% 8.0% 0.35× 35.56
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.5% 2.8% 2.0% 1.42× 35.65
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 91.0% 92.7% — — 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 71.8% 71.3% — — 1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half 65.0% 68.6% — — 1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half 35.0% 31.4% — — 3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half 28.2% 28.7% — — 3.49
Over 2.5 in 1st half 9.0% 7.3% — — 13.71
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 81.9% 82.9% — — 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 76.8% 79.5% — — 1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 57.2% 55.3% — — 1.81
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 42.8% 44.7% — — 2.24
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 23.2% 20.5% — — 4.89
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 18.1% 17.1% — — 5.85
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone not to score in both halves 85.7% 85.5% — — 1.17
Dundee United not to score in both halves 71.9% 73.8% — — 1.35
Dundee United to score in both halves 28.1% 26.2% — — 3.82
St Johnstone to score in both halves 14.3% 14.5% — — 6.89
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 48.7% 50.7% 52.3% 0.97× 1.97
Only Dundee United scores 29.7% 26.1% 27.5% 0.95× 3.83
Only St Johnstone scores 13.6% 11.0% 14.9% 0.74× 9.06
Neither team scores 8.0% 7.1% 5.8% 1.23× 14.00
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 25.5% 24.9% 21.7% 1.15× 4.02
Exactly 3 goals 21.4% 22.6% 24.2% 0.93× 4.43
Exactly 1 goals 20.7% 22.6% 16.1% 1.40× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 13.4% 12.1% 18.4% 0.66× 8.25
Exactly 0 goals 8.0% 7.6% 5.8% 1.32× 13.14
Exactly 5 goals 6.7% 7.6% 7.4% 1.02× 13.14
6 or more goals 4.3% 4.5% 7.4% 0.60× 22.34
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 36.8% 37.3% — — 2.68
No goals in 1st half 35.0% 35.7% — — 2.80
2 goals in 1st half 19.3% 15.7% — — 6.36
3+ goals in 1st half 9.0% 7.3% — — 13.71
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 42.8% 44.7% — — 2.24
1 goal in 2nd half 34.0% 33.9% — — 2.95
No goals in 2nd half 23.2% 22.9% — — 4.36
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone not to win both halves 95.6% 97.2% — — 1.03
Dundee United not to win both halves 85.4% 87.9% — — 1.14
Dundee United to win both halves 14.6% 12.1% — — 8.25
St Johnstone to win both halves 4.4% 2.8% — — 35.44
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone to win neither half 62.3% 65.0% — — 1.54
Dundee United to win either half 62.0% 65.0% — — 1.54
Dundee United to win neither half 38.0% 35.0% — — 2.85
St Johnstone to win either half 37.7% 35.0% — — 2.85
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone not to win to nil 86.4% 88.1% 85.1% 1.04× 1.14
Dundee United not to win to nil 70.4% 75.3% 72.5% 1.04× 1.33
Dundee United to win to nil 29.7% 24.7% 27.5% 0.90× 4.04
St Johnstone to win to nil 13.6% 11.9% 14.9% 0.80× 8.41
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 25.4% 27.9% 23.3% 1.19× 3.59
Dundee United by 1 24.6% 24.1% 19.6% 1.23× 4.15
St Johnstone by 1 15.7% 17.0% 17.8% 0.96× 5.87
Dundee United by 2 15.3% 17.0% 14.5% 1.18× 5.87
Dundee United by 3+ 10.4% 11.8% 12.2% 0.96× 8.51
St Johnstone by 2 6.2% 7.2% 7.6% 0.94× 13.91
St Johnstone by 3+ 2.3% 2.7% 6.0% 0.45× 36.90
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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