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Dundee v Kilmarnock — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 28 October 2026 · SCO-Premiership · 2627

SCO-Premiership results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Dundee win
48.2%
model 46.6%
Draw
22.6%
model 23.0%
Kilmarnock win
29.2%
model 30.4%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 10.4%
  2. 2-1 9.3%
  3. 1-0 7.8%
  4. 1-2 7.3%
  5. 2-0 6.7%

Goals

Over 2.560.5% Under 2.539.5%
BTTS yes61.6% BTTS no38.4%
Dundee 1+82.7% Dundee 2+52.3%
Kilmarnock 1+74.7% Kilmarnock 2+40.0%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.38. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
85/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
3-5 goals
Multi goal · usually 50%
52.2% fair odds 1.92
moderate signal · 1994 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Not both teams to score 2+
GG/NG 2+ · usually 84%
83.1% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 264 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Dundee carry the stronger rating, 1461 Elo against 1393.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Dundee have an estimated 48.2% win probability, against 29.2% for Kilmarnock and 22.6% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.75 for Dundee and 1.38 for Kilmarnock.

Why Dundee

Dundee carry the stronger rating, 1461 Elo against 1393.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.6%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Kilmarnock can win

Nothing in the data singles out Kilmarnock.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Dundee, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Kilmarnock, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Dundee: 39% possession, 12.8 shots a match, 18.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Kilmarnock: 45% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 17.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Dundee are the model's most likely outcome at 48.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.4%. Confidence 85/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.75–1.38 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.87–1.43 1-1 10% 64% 64%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee to win 48.2% 47.4% 45.9% 1.03× 2.11
Kilmarnock to win 29.6% 27.9% 31.0% 0.90× 3.58
Draw 22.2% 24.5% 23.3% 1.05× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee & both teams score 27.8% 25.2% 18.6% 1.36× 3.97
Dundee & not both score 20.4% 21.8% 27.5% 0.79× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 18.7% 18.0% 17.8% 1.01× 5.56
Kilmarnock & both teams score 17.8% 18.0% 16.3% 1.10× 5.56
Kilmarnock & not both score 11.8% 13.3% 14.9% 0.89× 7.54
Draw & not both score 3.6% 4.9% 5.8% 0.84× 20.51
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee & over 1.5 41.2% 40.3% 36.6% 1.10× 2.48
Dundee & over 2.5 34.7% 30.8% 28.1% 1.09× 3.25
Dundee & under 3.5 26.7% 26.1% 30.2% 0.86× 3.84
Kilmarnock & over 1.5 24.2% 21.6% 24.4% 0.89× 4.63
Dundee & over 3.5 21.5% 21.6% 15.9% 1.36× 4.63
Kilmarnock & over 2.5 20.5% 21.6% 20.5% 1.06× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 18.7% 18.0% 17.8% 1.01× 5.55
Kilmarnock & under 3.5 18.0% 18.0% 22.5% 0.80× 5.56
Dundee & under 2.5 13.5% 12.8% 18.0% 0.71× 7.79
Draw & under 2.5 13.3% 12.8% 14.9% 0.86× 7.79
Draw & under 3.5 13.3% 12.8% 14.9% 0.86× 7.79
Kilmarnock & over 3.5 11.6% 12.8% 8.7% 1.48× 7.79
Draw & over 2.5 8.9% 7.9% 8.7% 0.91× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 8.9% 7.9% 8.7% 0.91× 12.63
Kilmarnock & under 2.5 9.1% 7.9% 10.7% 0.74× 12.63
Dundee & under 1.5 7.0% 7.9% 9.5% 0.83× 12.63
Kilmarnock & under 1.5 5.4% 7.9% 6.8% 1.16× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 3.6% 4.8% 5.8% 0.83× 20.82
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee (1UP) 65.5% 70.1% — — 1.43
Kilmarnock (1UP) 50.0% 44.0% — — 2.27
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee (2UP) 48.2% 50.1% — — 1.99
Kilmarnock (2UP) 29.6% 25.3% — — 3.95
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee to win 2nd half 40.0% 36.5% — — 2.74
2nd half drawn 31.2% 34.0% — — 2.94
Kilmarnock to win 2nd half 28.8% 26.1% — — 3.83
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock under 1.5 in 2nd half 78.8% 79.6% — — 1.26
Kilmarnock over 0.5 in 2nd half 57.6% 54.4% — — 1.84
Kilmarnock under 0.5 in 2nd half 42.4% 45.6% — — 2.19
Kilmarnock over 1.5 in 2nd half 21.2% 20.4% — — 4.90
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee under 1.5 in 2nd half 71.1% 74.3% — — 1.35
Dundee over 0.5 in 2nd half 65.6% 70.7% — — 1.42
Dundee under 0.5 in 2nd half 34.4% 29.3% — — 3.41
Dundee over 1.5 in 2nd half 28.9% 25.7% — — 3.89
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock (+2.5) 87.8% 88.5% 87.8% 1.01× 1.13
Kilmarnock (+1.5) 73.2% 73.7% 73.6% 1.00× 1.36
Dundee (+0.5) 70.4% 73.6% 69.0% 1.07× 1.36
Kilmarnock (+0.5) 51.8% 52.4% 54.1% 0.97× 1.91
Dundee (-0.5) 48.2% 47.6% 45.9% 1.04× 2.10
Kilmarnock (-0.5) 29.6% 26.4% 31.0% 0.85× 3.79
Dundee (-1.5) 26.8% 26.3% 26.4% 1.00× 3.80
Dundee (-2.5) 12.2% 11.5% 12.2% 0.95× 8.67
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock to concede 84.6% 81.5% 79.5% 1.02× 1.23
Kilmarnock clean sheet 15.4% 18.5% 20.5% 0.90× 5.41
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock to concede in 1st half 55.3% 56.4% — — 1.77
Kilmarnock clean sheet in 1st half 44.7% 43.6% — — 2.29
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock to concede in 2nd half 65.6% 65.6% — — 1.53
Kilmarnock clean sheet in 2nd half 34.4% 34.4% — — 2.90
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock under 6.5 corners 82.8% 81.4% — — 1.23
Kilmarnock over 2.5 corners 76.1% 76.0% — — 1.32
Kilmarnock under 5.5 corners 72.1% 71.6% — — 1.40
Kilmarnock over 3.5 corners 59.1% 57.2% — — 1.75
Kilmarnock under 4.5 corners 57.8% 57.2% — — 1.75
Kilmarnock over 4.5 corners 42.2% 42.8% — — 2.34
Kilmarnock under 3.5 corners 40.9% 42.8% — — 2.34
Kilmarnock over 5.5 corners 27.9% 28.4% — — 3.52
Kilmarnock under 2.5 corners 23.9% 24.0% — — 4.17
Kilmarnock over 6.5 corners 17.2% 18.6% — — 5.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock under 3.5 goals 94.3% 92.4% 96.3% 0.96× 1.08
Kilmarnock under 2.5 goals 82.6% 81.5% 85.5% 0.95× 1.23
Kilmarnock over 0.5 goals 76.0% 76.2% 66.9% 1.14× 1.31
Kilmarnock under 1.5 goals 58.2% 59.4% 63.2% 0.94× 1.68
Kilmarnock over 1.5 goals 41.8% 40.6% 36.8% 1.10× 2.47
Kilmarnock under 0.5 goals 24.0% 23.8% 33.1% 0.72× 4.21
Kilmarnock over 2.5 goals 17.4% 18.5% 14.5% 1.28× 5.41
Kilmarnock over 3.5 goals 5.7% 7.6% 3.7% 2.05× 13.09
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock under 1.5 in 1st half 88.7% 89.3% — — 1.12
Kilmarnock under 0.5 in 1st half 56.5% 62.3% — — 1.61
Kilmarnock over 0.5 in 1st half 43.5% 37.7% — — 2.65
Kilmarnock over 1.5 in 1st half 11.3% 10.7% — — 9.36
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock scores more in 2nd half 39.9% 37.4% — — 2.67
Kilmarnock scores equally in both 37.2% 37.3% — — 2.68
Kilmarnock scores more in 1st half 22.9% 21.8% — — 4.59
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee (away no bet) 68.5% 66.4% 66.3% 1.00× 1.51
Draw (away no bet) 31.5% 33.6% 33.7% 0.99× 2.98
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock even goals 52.9% 52.6% 57.6% 0.91× 1.90
Kilmarnock odd goals 47.1% 47.4% 42.4% 1.12× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 77.0% 80.8% — — 1.24
Both halves over 1.5 goals 23.0% 19.2% — — 5.22
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 74.4% 67.8% — — 1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals 25.6% 32.2% — — 3.10
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 65.7% 62.4% — — 1.60
Dundee to score 2+ in a row 45.4% 46.0% — — 2.17
Kilmarnock to score 2+ in a row 30.4% 28.8% — — 3.47
Either team to score 3+ in a row 26.8% 24.9% — — 4.01
Dundee to score 3+ in a row 18.3% 16.2% — — 6.18
Kilmarnock to score 3+ in a row 9.1% 5.5% — — 18.05
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee corners (+3.5) 87.5% 84.5% — — 1.18
Kilmarnock corners (+3.5) 82.0% 79.8% — — 1.25
Dundee corners (+2.5) 80.5% 79.8% — — 1.25
Kilmarnock corners (+2.5) 73.5% 70.8% — — 1.41
Dundee corners (+1.5) 71.4% 70.8% — — 1.41
Kilmarnock corners (+1.5) 63.1% 61.9% — — 1.62
Dundee corners (-1.5) 37.0% 38.1% — — 2.62
Kilmarnock corners (-1.5) 28.6% 29.2% — — 3.42
Dundee corners (-2.5) 26.5% 29.2% — — 3.42
Kilmarnock corners (-2.5) 19.5% 20.2% — — 4.94
Dundee corners (-3.5) 18.0% 20.2% — — 4.95
Kilmarnock corners (-3.5) 12.5% 15.5% — — 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 47.2% 41.7% — — 2.40
9-11 corners 30.2% 33.2% — — 3.01
12+ corners 22.6% 25.7% — — 3.90
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 84.3% 80.7% — — 1.24
Under 11.5 corners 77.4% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 10.5 corners 68.8% 67.8% — — 1.48
Over 7.5 corners 64.4% 63.3% — — 1.58
Under 9.5 corners 58.6% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 8.5 corners 52.8% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 8.5 corners 47.2% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 9.5 corners 41.4% 42.1% — — 2.37
Under 7.5 corners 35.6% 36.7% — — 2.72
Over 10.5 corners 31.2% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 11.5 corners 22.6% 23.4% — — 4.27
Over 12.5 corners 15.7% 19.3% — — 5.18
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-1 9.2% 7.4% 7.0% 1.05× 13.51
1-1 9.7% 7.4% 9.3% 0.80× 13.51
2-0 6.5% 7.4% 8.7% 0.85× 13.51
2-2 6.6% 7.4% 6.6% 1.12× 13.51
1-0 7.0% 7.4% 9.5% 0.78× 13.51
1-2 7.0% 7.4% 8.9% 0.83× 13.51
3-1 5.8% 7.4% 5.6% 1.33× 13.51
Any other score 5.7% 7.4% 4.1% 1.79× 13.51
0-1 5.4% 7.4% 6.8% 1.09× 13.51
1-4 1.2% 1.7% 0.8% 2.08× 58.31
2-3 3.1% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.30
2-4 1.1% 1.7% 0.8% 2.08× 58.31
3-0 4.0% 1.7% 5.6% 0.31× 58.30
3-2 4.1% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.30
3-3 2.0% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.31
3-4 0.7% 1.7% 0.4% 4.15× 58.32
4-0 1.9% 1.7% 3.5% 0.49× 58.31
4-1 2.7% 1.7% 1.4% 1.19× 58.30
4-2 1.9% 1.7% 0.6% 2.77× 58.31
4-3 0.9% 1.7% 0.8% 2.08× 58.31
4-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.2% 8.30× 58.32
0-0 3.6% 1.7% 5.8% 0.30× 58.30
0-2 3.8% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.30
0-3 1.8% 1.7% 3.3% 0.52× 58.31
0-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.4% 4.15× 58.32
1-3 3.4% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.30
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee (2nd half DNB) 58.1% 59.6% — — 1.68
Kilmarnock (2nd half DNB) 41.9% 40.4% — — 2.47
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee leading at HT (DNB) 61.4% 66.3% — — 1.51
Kilmarnock leading at HT (DNB) 38.6% 33.7% — — 2.97
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee or Kilmarnock (12) 77.8% 75.5% 76.7% 0.99× 1.32
Dundee or draw (1X) 70.4% 72.1% 69.0% 1.04× 1.39
Kilmarnock or draw (X2) 51.8% 52.6% 54.1% 0.97× 1.90
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee or draw at HT 76.2% 79.6% — — 1.26
Kilmarnock or draw at HT 62.0% 60.9% — — 1.64
Dundee or Kilmarnock at HT 61.8% 60.9% — — 1.64
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee or draw (1UP) 70.4% 79.5% — — 1.26
Kilmarnock or draw (1UP) 51.8% 58.6% — — 1.71
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee or draw in 2nd half 71.2% 73.9% — — 1.35
Dundee or Kilmarnock in 2nd half 68.8% 66.0% — — 1.51
Kilmarnock or draw in 2nd half 60.0% 63.5% — — 1.58
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 57.7% 58.8% — — 1.70
Neither half drawn 42.3% 41.2% — — 2.43
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee (DNB) 62.0% 62.7% 59.7% 1.05× 1.60
Kilmarnock (DNB) 38.0% 37.3% 40.3% 0.93× 2.68
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee to score first 54.7% 53.4% — — 1.87
Kilmarnock to score first 41.7% 41.6% — — 2.40
No goal scored 3.6% 4.4% — — 22.89
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 64.2% 56.7% 52.3% 1.08× 1.77
Not both teams to score 35.8% 43.3% 47.7% 0.91× 2.31
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 54.5% 47.3% 43.2% 1.09× 2.12
Not both score & under 2.5 26.2% 33.3% 34.1% 0.98× 3.00
Both score & under 2.5 9.7% 8.3% 9.3% 0.89× 12.06
Not both score & over 2.5 9.6% 8.3% 13.8% 0.60× 12.06
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 76.6% 79.7% 83.9% 0.95× 1.25
Both teams to score 2+ 23.4% 20.3% 16.1% 1.26× 4.93
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 62.3% 65.9% — — 1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half 37.7% 34.1% — — 2.93
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 47.3% 53.0% — — 1.89
Both score 2nd half only 28.6% 26.8% — — 3.73
Both score 1st half only 15.0% 10.8% — — 9.28
Both score in both halves 9.1% 6.8% — — 14.65
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 75.9% 80.9% — — 1.24
Both teams to score by HT 24.1% 19.1% — — 5.24
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 63.8% 59.5% — — 1.68
A half without a goal 36.2% 40.5% — — 2.47
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 42.0% 42.2% 45.7% 0.92× 2.37
4-6 goals 36.9% 35.0% 31.2% 1.12× 2.85
0-1 goals 15.9% 20.2% 21.7% 0.93× 4.95
7+ goals 5.1% 7.6% 1.9% 4.08× 13.18
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock to score exactly 1 34.2% 33.8% 30.4% 1.11× 2.96
Kilmarnock to score exactly 2 24.5% 22.3% 22.5% 0.99× 4.49
Kilmarnock to score exactly 0 24.0% 22.3% 33.1% 0.67× 4.49
Kilmarnock to score 3+ 17.4% 19.5% 14.5% 1.35× 5.12
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee to score 3+ 28.9% 26.6% 23.8% 1.12× 3.77
Dundee to score exactly 1 28.8% 26.6% 31.2% 0.85× 3.77
Dundee to score exactly 2 27.0% 26.6% 25.0% 1.06× 3.77
Dundee to score exactly 0 15.4% 18.8% 20.5% 0.92× 5.33
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 38.2% 39.1% — — 2.56
Dundee leading at HT 38.0% 39.1% — — 2.56
Kilmarnock leading at HT 23.8% 20.4% — — 4.89
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee -1: 2 51.8% 52.1% — — 1.92
Dundee -1: 1 26.8% 26.5% — — 3.77
Dundee -1: X 21.4% 23.5% — — 4.25
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock (0:1) 51.8% 51.3% 54.1% 0.95× 1.95
Dundee (0:1) 26.8% 27.0% 26.4% 1.02× 3.70
Draw (0:1) 21.4% 24.2% 19.6% 1.23× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock (0:2) 73.2% 75.7% 73.6% 1.03× 1.32
Draw (0:2) 14.5% 11.0% 14.5% 0.76× 9.09
Dundee (0:2) 12.2% 11.0% 12.2% 0.90× 9.10
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock (0:3) 87.8% 90.6% 87.8% 1.03× 1.10
Draw (0:3) 7.6% 5.8% 6.8% 0.85× 17.24
Dundee (0:3) 4.7% 2.4% 5.6% 0.43× 41.93
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock (0:4) 95.3% 98.1% 94.4% 1.04× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 3.2% 1.2% 4.8% 0.26× 81.62
Dundee (0:4) 1.5% 1.2% 1.0% 1.18× 81.80
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee (1:0) 70.4% 72.4% 69.0% 1.05× 1.38
Draw (1:0) 16.4% 17.1% 17.8% 0.96× 5.85
Kilmarnock (1:0) 13.2% 12.7% 13.4% 0.95× 7.87
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee (2:0) 86.8% 88.5% 86.6% 1.02× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 8.5% 6.4% 7.6% 0.84× 15.65
Kilmarnock (2:0) 4.8% 2.3% 6.0% 0.38× 43.63
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 50.4% 50.1% — — 1.99
1st half highest scoring 27.6% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 22.0% 24.5% — — 4.09
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee to concede 76.0% 76.0% 66.9% 1.14× 1.32
Dundee clean sheet 24.0% 24.0% 33.1% 0.73× 4.17
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee clean sheet in 1st half 56.5% 62.3% — — 1.61
Dundee to concede in 1st half 43.5% 37.7% — — 2.65
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee to concede in 2nd half 57.6% 54.8% — — 1.82
Dundee clean sheet in 2nd half 42.4% 45.2% — — 2.21
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee over 2.5 corners 80.5% 81.0% — — 1.24
Dundee under 6.5 corners 77.8% 76.5% — — 1.31
Dundee under 5.5 corners 66.0% 66.7% — — 1.50
Dundee over 3.5 corners 65.1% 66.7% — — 1.50
Dundee under 4.5 corners 51.2% 52.6% — — 1.90
Dundee over 4.5 corners 48.8% 47.4% — — 2.11
Dundee under 3.5 corners 34.9% 33.3% — — 3.00
Dundee over 5.5 corners 34.0% 33.3% — — 3.00
Dundee over 6.5 corners 22.2% 23.5% — — 4.26
Dundee under 2.5 corners 19.5% 19.0% — — 5.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee under 3.5 goals 87.9% 87.3% 92.1% 0.95× 1.15
Dundee over 0.5 goals 84.6% 82.2% 79.5% 1.03× 1.22
Dundee under 2.5 goals 71.1% 74.2% 76.2% 0.97× 1.35
Dundee over 1.5 goals 55.9% 58.6% 48.6% 1.21× 1.71
Dundee under 1.5 goals 44.1% 41.4% 51.4% 0.80× 2.42
Dundee over 2.5 goals 28.9% 25.8% 23.8% 1.09× 3.88
Dundee under 0.5 goals 15.4% 17.8% 20.5% 0.87× 5.62
Dundee over 3.5 goals 12.1% 12.7% 7.9% 1.62× 7.86
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee under 1.5 in 1st half 80.7% 84.1% — — 1.19
Dundee over 0.5 in 1st half 55.3% 56.2% — — 1.78
Dundee under 0.5 in 1st half 44.7% 43.8% — — 2.28
Dundee over 1.5 in 1st half 19.3% 15.9% — — 6.28
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee scores more in 2nd half 41.2% 41.7% — — 2.40
Dundee scores equally in both 31.7% 33.2% — — 3.02
Dundee scores more in 1st half 27.1% 27.9% — — 3.59
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock (home no bet) 57.1% 56.4% 57.0% 0.99× 1.77
Draw (home no bet) 42.9% 43.6% 43.0% 1.02× 2.29
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee even goals 51.2% 50.7% 51.7% 0.98× 1.97
Dundee odd goals 48.8% 49.3% 48.3% 1.02× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 25.2% 28.4% — — 3.53
HT 1-0 20.3% 24.3% — — 4.11
HT 0-1 14.4% 11.0% — — 9.08
HT 1-1 11.6% 11.0% — — 9.11
HT 2-0 8.2% 6.9% — — 14.53
Any other HT score 6.8% 6.9% — — 14.55
HT 2-1 4.7% 2.4% — — 42.12
HT 0-2 4.1% 2.4% — — 42.15
HT 1-2 3.3% 2.4% — — 42.20
HT 2-2 1.3% 2.4% — — 42.33
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee at HT / Dundee at FT 29.7% 27.5% — — 3.64
Kilmarnock at HT / Kilmarnock at FT 15.9% 16.8% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / Dundee at FT 15.3% 16.7% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 11.8% 12.7% — — 7.90
Draw at HT / Kilmarnock at FT 11.1% 12.7% — — 7.90
Dundee at HT / Draw at FT 5.6% 6.0% — — 16.53
Kilmarnock at HT / Draw at FT 4.8% 3.5% — — 28.86
Kilmarnock at HT / Dundee at FT 3.1% 3.5% — — 28.92
Dundee at HT / Kilmarnock at FT 2.7% 3.5% — — 28.94
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee to score last 54.7% 52.2% — — 1.91
Kilmarnock to score last 41.7% 40.0% — — 2.50
No goal scored 3.6% 4.4% — — 22.89
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 96.4% 95.6% — — 1.05
Dundee to lead by 1 at any time 65.5% 69.2% — — 1.45
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 54.9% 50.7% — — 1.97
Kilmarnock to lead by 1 at any time 50.0% 44.4% — — 2.25
Dundee to lead by 2 at any time 35.0% 34.7% — — 2.88
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 22.3% 19.5% — — 5.12
Kilmarnock to lead by 2 at any time 20.4% 19.5% — — 5.13
Dundee to lead by 3 at any time 15.5% 14.8% — — 6.76
Kilmarnock to lead by 3 at any time 6.9% 6.6% — — 15.07
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee most corners 48.6% 47.0% — — 2.13
Kilmarnock most corners 39.5% 39.4% — — 2.54
Corners level 11.9% 10.4% — — 9.59
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 84.7% 83.4% 87.0% 0.96× 1.20
2-6 goals 79.0% 78.7% 76.7% 1.03× 1.27
1-4 goals 72.7% 72.3% 79.8% 0.91× 1.38
2-5 goals 72.3% 72.3% 71.1% 1.02× 1.38
2-4 goals 60.3% 63.3% 63.8% 0.99× 1.58
3-6 goals 59.0% 59.1% 55.2% 1.07× 1.69
1-3 goals 54.4% 53.2% 61.6% 0.86× 1.88
3-5 goals 52.4% 53.2% 49.6% 1.07× 1.88
2-3 goals 42.0% 43.6% 45.7% 0.95× 2.29
3-4 goals 40.3% 43.6% 42.4% 1.03× 2.29
4-6 goals 36.9% 39.2% 31.2% 1.26× 2.55
1-2 goals 32.3% 35.2% 37.6% 0.94× 2.84
4-5 goals 30.3% 35.2% 25.6% 1.37× 2.84
5-6 goals 18.7% 18.8% 13.0% 1.45× 5.31
7+ goals 5.1% 8.9% 1.9% 4.77× 11.28
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee never behind 46.5% 56.7% — — 1.77
Kilmarnock never behind 30.9% 36.2% — — 2.76
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.8% 50.9% 51.2% 0.99× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.2% 49.1% 48.8% 1.01× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.1% 51.8% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 46.9% 48.2% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.0% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 49.0% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 96.4% 95.4% 94.2% 1.01× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 88.3% 87.6% 92.6% 0.95× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 84.1% 82.3% 78.3% 1.05× 1.22
Under 4.5 goals 76.2% 77.3% 85.3% 0.91× 1.29
Over 2.5 goals 64.1% 61.7% 56.8% 1.09× 1.62
Under 3.5 goals 58.0% 58.6% 67.1% 0.87× 1.71
Over 3.5 goals 42.0% 41.4% 32.9% 1.26× 2.42
Under 2.5 goals 35.9% 38.3% 43.2% 0.89× 2.61
Over 4.5 goals 23.8% 22.7% 14.7% 1.55× 4.40
Under 1.5 goals 15.9% 17.7% 21.7% 0.82× 5.65
Over 5.5 goals 11.7% 12.4% 7.4% 1.67× 8.07
Under 0.5 goals 3.6% 4.6% 5.8% 0.79× 21.82
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 94.5% 92.4% 98.0% 0.94× 1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 86.7% 86.7% 92.0% 0.94× 1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 80.1% 81.1% 72.4% 1.12× 1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 70.9% 72.3% 82.1% 0.88× 1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 53.9% 51.9% 43.2% 1.20× 1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 46.1% 48.1% 56.8% 0.85× 2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 29.1% 27.7% 17.9% 1.54× 3.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 19.9% 18.9% 27.6% 0.69× 5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 13.3% 13.3% 8.0% 1.66× 7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 5.5% 7.6% 2.0% 3.85× 13.20
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 83.9% 85.8% — — 1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half 74.8% 71.4% — — 1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half 60.0% 64.8% — — 1.54
Over 1.5 in 1st half 40.0% 35.2% — — 2.85
Under 0.5 in 1st half 25.2% 28.6% — — 3.50
Over 2.5 in 1st half 16.1% 14.2% — — 7.02
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 85.5% 85.3% — — 1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 69.7% 68.6% — — 1.46
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 57.3% 55.3% — — 1.81
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 42.7% 44.7% — — 2.24
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 30.3% 31.4% — — 3.19
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 14.5% 14.7% — — 6.80
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock not to score in both halves 74.9% 74.0% — — 1.35
Dundee not to score in both halves 63.7% 63.4% — — 1.58
Dundee to score in both halves 36.3% 36.6% — — 2.74
Kilmarnock to score in both halves 25.1% 26.0% — — 3.84
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 64.2% 60.3% 52.3% 1.15× 1.66
Only Dundee scores 20.4% 22.2% 27.5% 0.81× 4.50
Only Kilmarnock scores 11.8% 11.0% 14.9% 0.74× 9.07
Neither team scores 3.6% 4.6% 5.8% 0.80× 21.58
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.1% 22.6% 24.2% 0.93× 4.43
Exactly 2 goals 19.9% 17.5% 21.7% 0.81× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 18.2% 17.5% 18.4% 0.95× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 12.4% 12.1% 16.1% 0.75× 8.26
Exactly 5 goals 12.0% 12.1% 7.4% 1.63× 8.26
6 or more goals 11.7% 12.1% 7.4% 1.63× 8.26
Exactly 0 goals 3.6% 4.5% 5.8% 0.77× 22.35
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 34.8% 35.7% — — 2.80
No goals in 1st half 25.2% 28.5% — — 3.50
2 goals in 1st half 23.9% 21.5% — — 4.65
3+ goals in 1st half 16.1% 15.6% — — 6.40
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 57.3% 54.2% — — 1.85
1 goal in 2nd half 28.2% 29.1% — — 3.43
No goals in 2nd half 14.5% 14.6% — — 6.87
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock not to win both halves 93.2% 94.2% — — 1.06
Dundee not to win both halves 84.9% 83.6% — — 1.20
Dundee to win both halves 15.1% 16.4% — — 6.10
Kilmarnock to win both halves 6.8% 5.8% — — 17.16
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee to win either half 62.8% 65.0% — — 1.54
Kilmarnock to win neither half 54.2% 54.4% — — 1.84
Kilmarnock to win either half 45.8% 45.6% — — 2.19
Dundee to win neither half 37.2% 35.0% — — 2.86
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kilmarnock not to win to nil 88.2% 88.1% 85.1% 1.04× 1.14
Dundee not to win to nil 79.6% 78.2% 72.5% 1.08× 1.28
Dundee to win to nil 20.4% 21.9% 27.5% 0.80× 4.58
Kilmarnock to win to nil 11.8% 11.9% 14.9% 0.80× 8.42
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 22.2% 24.1% 23.3% 1.03× 4.15
Dundee by 1 21.4% 24.1% 19.6% 1.23× 4.15
Kilmarnock by 1 16.4% 17.0% 17.8% 0.96× 5.87
Dundee by 2 14.5% 11.8% 14.5% 0.81× 8.50
Dundee by 3+ 12.2% 11.8% 12.2% 0.96× 8.51
Kilmarnock by 2 8.5% 7.2% 7.6% 0.94× 13.91
Kilmarnock by 3+ 4.8% 2.7% 6.0% 0.45× 36.82
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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