Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Dortmund — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 9 January 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 06:02 UTC

Eintracht Frankfurt

3–3

1.66 – 2.30 xG

Borussia Dortmund

Shots

12 – 16

On target

6 – 6

Shots in box

11 – 13

xG per shot

0.14 – 0.14

Set-piece xG

0.81 – 0.38

Goals − xG

+1.34 – +0.69

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Eintracht Frankfurt win

35.0%

Draw

24.8%

Borussia Dortmund win

40.2%

352540

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Eintracht Frankfurt are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LDWLDLLDDL last 10 scored 16 from 17.1 xG conceded 23 from 20.0 xG

Borussia Dortmund are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWLLWLWWWW last 10 scored 20 from 22.3 xG conceded 10 from 12.7 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend-oos	352540	1.50–1.63	0%	0%	0%	Away ✗
dc-xg-oos	402436	1.55–1.47	1-1 11%	58%	61%	Home ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Eintracht Frankfurt 1.66 xGBorussia Dortmund 2.31 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Eintracht Frankfurt attacking right Borussia Dortmund attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
0'	Eintracht Frankfurt	Can Uzun	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Nathaniel Brown
3'	Borussia Dortmund	Felix Nmecha	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
9'	Borussia Dortmund	Maximilian Beier	0.32	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Julian Ryerson
11'	Borussia Dortmund	Serhou Guirassy	0.03	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Maximilian Beier
16'	Eintracht Frankfurt	Can Uzun	0.05	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Rasmus Kristensen
17'	Eintracht Frankfurt	Ansgar Knauff	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
21'	Eintracht Frankfurt	Can Uzun	0.76		Right Foot	Goal	—
25'	Borussia Dortmund	Julian Brandt	0.08	From Corner	Left Foot	Saved Shot	—
27'	Borussia Dortmund	Maximilian Beier	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
39'	Borussia Dortmund	Nico Schlotterbeck	0.11	Set Piece	—	Saved Shot	Julian Ryerson
41'	Eintracht Frankfurt	Younes Ebnoutalib	0.05	Set Piece	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Can Uzun
46'	Borussia Dortmund	Julian Brandt	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Niklas Süle
46'	Eintracht Frankfurt	Younes Ebnoutalib	0.04	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Hugo Larsson
48'	Eintracht Frankfurt	Ansgar Knauff	0.08	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Younes Ebnoutalib
51'	Borussia Dortmund	Daniel Svensson	0.37	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
53'	Eintracht Frankfurt	Ansgar Knauff	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
55'	Eintracht Frankfurt	Ansgar Knauff	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Younes Ebnoutalib
57'	Borussia Dortmund	Marcel Sabitzer	0.09	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Julian Ryerson
58'	Borussia Dortmund	Julian Ryerson	0.09	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Maximilian Beier
58'	Borussia Dortmund	Waldemar Anton	0.07	Open Play	—	Saved Shot	—
67'	Borussia Dortmund	Felix Nmecha	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	—
70'	Eintracht Frankfurt	Younes Ebnoutalib	0.35	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga
85'	Eintracht Frankfurt	Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Rasmus Kristensen
89'	Borussia Dortmund	Fabio Silva	0.12	From Corner	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
89'	Borussia Dortmund	Nico Schlotterbeck	0.07	From Corner	—	Shot On Post	Daniel Svensson
91'	Eintracht Frankfurt	Mahmoud Dahoud	0.06	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	—
94'	Borussia Dortmund	Carney Chukwuemeka	0.17	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Marcel Sabitzer
94'	Borussia Dortmund	Carney Chukwuemeka	0.61	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	—

Players

Borussia Dortmund

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Daniel Svensson DML	90	0	0	1	1	0.37	0.07	0.46
Nico Schlotterbeck DC	90	0	0	2	0	0.18	0.00	0.57
Felix Nmecha MC	90	1	0	2	0	0.09	0.00	0.45
Julian Ryerson DMR	90	0	1	1	3	0.09	0.52	0.72
Marcel Sabitzer MC	90	0	0	1	1	0.09	0.17	0.63
Waldemar Anton DC	90	0	0	1	0	0.07	0.00	0.53
Gregor Kobel GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.32
Julian Brandt AMC	89	0	0	2	0	0.13	0.00	0.15
Niklas Süle DC	78	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.06	0.38
Maximilian Beier AMC	77	1	0	2	2	0.34	0.13	0.47
Serhou Guirassy FW	68	0	0	1	0	0.03	0.00	0.03
Fabio Silva Sub	22	0	0	1	0	0.12	0.00	0.00
Karim Adeyemi Sub	13	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Emre Can Sub	12	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Carney Chukwuemeka Sub	1	1	0	2	0	0.78	0.00	0.78