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Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia M.Gladbach — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 14 February 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated

Eintracht Frankfurt
3–0
1.99 – 1.03 xG
Borussia M.Gladbach
Shots
12 – 20
On target
9 – 3
Shots in box
7 – 16
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.41 – 0.43
Goals − xG
+1.01 – -1.03

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Eintracht Frankfurt win
49.3%
Draw
25.6%
Borussia M.Gladbach win
25.2%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Eintracht Frankfurt have scored 16 from 17.9 expected and conceded 24 from 22.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

DLLDDLWDLW last 10 scored 16 from 17.9 xG conceded 24 from 22.2 xG

Borussia M.Gladbach have scored 17 from 16.5 expected and conceded 25 from 23.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

WLWLLLLLLW last 10 scored 17 from 16.5 xG conceded 25 from 23.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTSOutcome
ai-blend-oos 1.82–1.26 0% 0% 0% Home ✓
dc-xg-oos 2.45–1.38 2-1 9% 74% 68% Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.61.11.72.20'15'30'45'60'75'90'Nathaniel Brown 23' — goalAyoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab 33' — goalAnsgar Knauff 74' — goal
Eintracht Frankfurt 1.99 xGBorussia M.Gladbach 1.03 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga 3' — Saved Shot (0.29 xG, Open Play)Nico Elvedi 12' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Kota Takai 18' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Lukas Ullrich 21' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Nathaniel Brown 23' — Goal (0.10 xG, Open Play)Kevin Stöger 26' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Philipp Sander 28' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Kota Takai 32' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab 33' — Goal (0.03 xG, Open Play)Yannick Engelhardt 38' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Philipp Sander 40' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Rocco Reitz 41' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Kevin Stöger 44' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Haris Tabakovic 46' — Blocked Shot (0.15 xG, Set Piece)Haris Tabakovic 47' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)Jens Castrop 47' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Aurèle Amenda 49' — Saved Shot (0.41 xG, From Corner)Hugo Larsson 49' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Jens Castrop 55' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Jens Castrop 56' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Jean Négoce 60' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab 66' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Haris Tabakovic 67' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Ansgar Knauff 74' — Goal (0.46 xG, Open Play)Ansgar Knauff 76' — Saved Shot (0.37 xG, Open Play)Hugo Bolin 79' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Mahmoud Dahoud 81' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Wael Mohya 82' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Hugo Bolin 85' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Yannick Engelhardt 87' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Nathaniel Brown 88' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Ritsu Doan 91' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)
Eintracht Frankfurt attacking right Borussia M.Gladbach attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
3' Eintracht Frankfurt Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga 0.29 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Ritsu Doan
12' Borussia M.Gladbach Nico Elvedi 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Yannick Engelhardt
18' Borussia M.Gladbach Kota Takai 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot —
21' Borussia M.Gladbach Lukas Ullrich 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Yannick Engelhardt
23' Eintracht Frankfurt Nathaniel Brown 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Goal Jean Négoce
26' Borussia M.Gladbach Kevin Stöger 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
28' Borussia M.Gladbach Philipp Sander 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Jens Castrop
32' Borussia M.Gladbach Kota Takai 0.04 From Corner — Missed Shot Kevin Stöger
33' Eintracht Frankfurt Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Goal Jean Négoce
38' Borussia M.Gladbach Yannick Engelhardt 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Franck Honorat
40' Borussia M.Gladbach Philipp Sander 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Franck Honorat
41' Borussia M.Gladbach Rocco Reitz 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Franck Honorat
44' Borussia M.Gladbach Kevin Stöger 0.03 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot —
46' Borussia M.Gladbach Haris Tabakovic 0.15 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot Philipp Sander
47' Borussia M.Gladbach Haris Tabakovic 0.07 Set Piece — Saved Shot Franck Honorat
47' Borussia M.Gladbach Jens Castrop 0.06 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot —
49' Eintracht Frankfurt Aurèle Amenda 0.41 From Corner — Saved Shot Hugo Larsson
49' Eintracht Frankfurt Hugo Larsson 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Jean Négoce
55' Borussia M.Gladbach Jens Castrop 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Shuto Machino
56' Borussia M.Gladbach Jens Castrop 0.08 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot —
60' Eintracht Frankfurt Jean Négoce 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Mario Götze
66' Eintracht Frankfurt Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Ritsu Doan
67' Borussia M.Gladbach Haris Tabakovic 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Yannick Engelhardt
74' Eintracht Frankfurt Ansgar Knauff 0.46 Open Play Right Foot Goal —
76' Eintracht Frankfurt Ansgar Knauff 0.37 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Jean Négoce
79' Borussia M.Gladbach Hugo Bolin 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
81' Eintracht Frankfurt Mahmoud Dahoud 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jean Négoce
82' Borussia M.Gladbach Wael Mohya 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Lukas Ullrich
85' Borussia M.Gladbach Hugo Bolin 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Franck Honorat
87' Borussia M.Gladbach Yannick Engelhardt 0.01 Set Piece — Missed Shot Rocco Reitz
88' Eintracht Frankfurt Nathaniel Brown 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Mahmoud Dahoud
91' Eintracht Frankfurt Ritsu Doan 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot —

Players

Borussia M.Gladbach

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Kota Takai DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.08 0.00 0.21
Lukas Ullrich ML 90 0 0 1 1 0.08 0.04 0.22
Rocco Reitz MC 90 0 0 1 1 0.07 0.01 0.15
Yannick Engelhardt DMC 90 0 0 2 3 0.03 0.17 0.27
Nico Elvedi DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.12
Moritz Nicolas GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Franck Honorat FW 90 0 0 0 5 0.00 0.25 0.20
Haris Tabakovic FW 84 0 0 3 0 0.30 0.00 0.16
Jens Castrop MR 70 0 0 3 1 0.20 0.02 0.17
Kevin Stöger MC 70 0 0 2 1 0.05 0.04 0.08
Philipp Sander DC 51 0 0 2 1 0.08 0.15 0.10
Shuto Machino Sub 39 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.06
Hugo Bolin Sub 20 0 0 2 0 0.09 0.00 0.09
Joe Scally Sub 20 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Wael Mohya Sub 6 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.04

Eintracht Frankfurt

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Aurèle Amenda DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.41 0.00 0.42
Nathaniel Brown DML 90 1 0 2 0 0.14 0.00 0.64
Jean Négoce AMC 90 0 2 1 5 0.05 0.64 0.69
Ritsu Doan MC 90 0 0 1 2 0.02 0.36 0.57
Kauã Santos GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.07
Robin Koch DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.56
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab DMR 84 1 0 2 0 0.11 0.00 0.11
Hugo Larsson MC 84 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.41 0.16
Mario Götze AMC 75 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.28
Mahmoud Dahoud Sub 74 0 0 1 1 0.08 0.04 0.52
Rasmus Kristensen DC 51 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.48
Nnamdi Collins Sub 39 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga FW 16 0 0 1 0 0.29 0.00 0.29
Ansgar Knauff Sub 15 1 0 2 0 0.83 0.00 0.87
Love Arrhov Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ellyes Skhiri Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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