Eintracht Frankfurt v FC Cologne — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 5 April 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 14
On target
7 – 9
Shots in box
13 – 13
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.23
Set-piece xG
0.66 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.17 – -1.16
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Eintracht Frankfurt win
50.6%
Draw
24.2%
FC Cologne win
25.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Eintracht Frankfurt are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDWLDLLDDL last 10
scored 16
from 17.1 xG
conceded 23
from 20.0 xG
FC Cologne are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DDWDLDLLWL last 10
scored 18
from 22.3 xG
conceded 25
from 19.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.90–1.29 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.92–1.08 | 1-1 10% | 58% | 56% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Eintracht Frankfurt 2.17 xGFC Cologne 3.16 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Eintracht Frankfurt attacking right
FC Cologne attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tom Krauß |
| 0' |
FC Cologne |
Ragnar Ache | 0.71 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 5' |
 Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga |
| 13' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 15' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Larsson | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga |
| 15' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ritsu Doan | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 23' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ansgar Knauff | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hugo Larsson |
| 25' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sebastian Sebulonsen |
| 33' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Oscar Højlund |
| 39' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Said El Mala |
| 40' |
FC Cologne |
Ragnar Ache | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 42' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.11 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 43' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Arthur Theate | 0.07 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Aurèle Amenda |
| 48' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Larsson | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Robin Koch |
| 54' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ansgar Knauff | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hugo Larsson |
| 55' |
FC Cologne |
Tom Krauß | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 58' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Arthur Theate | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Ritsu Doan |
| 59' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Arthur Theate | 0.22 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Farès Chaïbi |
| 61' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Farès Chaïbi | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga |
| 63' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Farès Chaïbi |
| 64' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jan Thielmann |
| 65' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.65 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Farès Chaïbi |
| 68' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 69' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Ragnar Ache |
| 70' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Said El Mala |
| 71' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jan Thielmann |
| 80' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Aurèle Amenda | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga |
| 80' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.60 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Linton Maina |
| 82' |
FC Cologne |
Alessio Castro-Montes | 0.67 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Marius Bülter |
| 82' |
FC Cologne |
Gian-Luca Waldschmidt | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kristoffer Lund |
| 87' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Farès Chaïbi |
| 88' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Younes Ebnoutalib | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Farès Chaïbi |
| 93' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Aurèle Amenda | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga |
| 97' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Arthur Theate | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Eintracht Frankfurt
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0.56 | 0.20 | 0.77 |
| Arthur Theate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Aurèle Amenda DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.92 |
| Michael Zetterer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Robin Koch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.93 |
| Nathaniel Brown DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Jonathan Burkardt FW | 82 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.81 | 0.00 | 1.02 |
| Hugo Larsson MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.30 |
| Ritsu Doan AMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.90 |
| Ansgar Knauff DMR | 56 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Oscar Højlund MC | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| Farès Chaïbi Sub | 35 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0.05 | 1.02 | 0.71 |
| Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Mario Götze Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Younes Ebnoutalib Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ellyes Skhiri Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
FC Cologne
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub Kaminski MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.97 | 0.00 | 1.57 |
| Sebastian Sebulonsen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| Rav van den Berg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Cenk Özkacar DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Marvin Schwäbe GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kristoffer Lund DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Ragnar Ache FW | 82 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.76 | 0.10 | 2.01 |
| Said El Mala FW | 82 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.69 | 0.60 | 1.29 |
| Tom Krauß MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| Jan Thielmann DR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Denis Huseinbasic MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Linton Maina Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Alessio Castro-Montes Sub | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Gian-Luca Waldschmidt Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Marius Bülter Sub | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.67 |