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Eintracht Frankfurt v FC Cologne — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 17 October 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Eintracht Frankfurt win
49.6%
model 46.7%
Draw
22.5%
model 24.0%
FC Cologne win
27.9%
model 29.4%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (483 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 11.2%
  2. 2-1 9.3%
  3. 1-0 8.7%
  4. 2-0 7.3%
  5. 1-2 7.2%

Goals

Over 2.556.7% Under 2.543.3%
BTTS yes58.7% BTTS no41.3%
Eintracht Frankfurt 1+81.3% Eintracht Frankfurt 2+49.9%
FC Cologne 1+72.2% FC Cologne 2+36.6%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.28. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
89/100
Data quality
90/100
Model agreement
94%
★ Best pick
1-3 goals
Multi goal · usually 51%
62.2% fair odds 1.61
strong signal · 3499 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Not both to score by HT
GG/NG half time · usually 79%
83.2% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 1245 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Eintracht Frankfurt have created 1.71 xG a match over their last five while FC Cologne have allowed 1.94.
  • At home Eintracht Frankfurt average 2.01 xG a match.
  • Their last eleven was closer to full strength: FC Cologne were missing 1.11 expected goal involvements a match against 0.75.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Eintracht Frankfurt have an estimated 49.6% win probability, against 27.9% for FC Cologne and 22.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.67 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.28 for FC Cologne.

Why Eintracht Frankfurt

Eintracht Frankfurt have created 1.71 xG a match over their last five while FC Cologne have allowed 1.94. At home Eintracht Frankfurt average 2.01 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: FC Cologne were missing 1.11 expected goal involvements a match against 0.75.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.5%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why FC Cologne can win

FC Cologne have created 2.23 xG a match over their last five while Eintracht Frankfurt have allowed 2.00. Away from home FC Cologne average 1.96 xG a match.

Key players

Eintracht Frankfurt's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Jonathan Burkardt (0.48), Younes Ebnoutalib (0.37), Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga (0.33). FC Cologne's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Said El Mala (0.47), Ragnar Ache (0.43), Jakub Kaminski (0.35).

Availability

1 of Eintracht Frankfurt's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Eintracht Frankfurt's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of FC Cologne's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of FC Cologne's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Eintracht Frankfurt: 55% possession, 13.6 shots a match, 15.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. FC Cologne: 42% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 15.6 faced, 0.39 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Eintracht Frankfurt are the model's most likely outcome at 49.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.2%. Confidence 89/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Eintracht Frankfurt are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LDWLDLLDDL last 10 scored 16 from 17.1 xG conceded 23 from 20.0 xG

FC Cologne are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

DDWDLDLLWL last 10 scored 18 from 22.3 xG conceded 25 from 19.5 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.67–1.28 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 2.20–1.55 2-1 9% 72% 70%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt to win 46.6% 49.1% 41.6% 1.18× 2.04
FC Cologne to win 29.4% 27.6% 33.7% 0.82× 3.62
Draw 24.0% 22.2% 24.8% 0.90× 4.50
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt & both teams score 24.1% 22.7% 22.2% 1.03× 4.40
Eintracht Frankfurt & not both score 22.6% 22.7% 19.6% 1.16× 4.41
Draw & both teams score 18.8% 17.8% 19.1% 0.93× 5.61
FC Cologne & both teams score 15.8% 17.8% 18.4% 0.97× 5.62
FC Cologne & not both score 13.5% 12.1% 15.5% 0.78× 8.24
Draw & not both score 5.2% 7.3% 5.9% 1.24× 13.75
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt & over 1.5 37.9% 37.6% 35.4% 1.06× 2.66
Eintracht Frankfurt & over 2.5 30.6% 33.0% 29.4% 1.12× 3.03
Eintracht Frankfurt & under 3.5 29.4% 25.6% 21.5% 1.19× 3.91
FC Cologne & over 1.5 22.7% 21.5% 27.8% 0.77× 4.66
FC Cologne & under 3.5 19.9% 17.6% 19.8% 0.89× 5.68
Draw & over 1.5 18.8% 17.6% 19.1% 0.92× 5.68
FC Cologne & over 2.5 18.4% 17.6% 23.6% 0.75× 5.68
Eintracht Frankfurt & over 3.5 17.2% 17.6% 20.3% 0.87× 5.68
Draw & under 2.5 16.4% 17.6% 15.5% 1.14× 5.68
Draw & under 3.5 16.4% 17.6% 15.5% 1.14× 5.68
Eintracht Frankfurt & under 2.5 16.0% 17.6% 12.3% 1.43× 5.68
FC Cologne & under 2.5 10.9% 12.7% 10.3% 1.23× 7.88
FC Cologne & over 3.5 9.4% 7.5% 14.1% 0.53× 13.33
Eintracht Frankfurt & under 1.5 8.7% 7.5% 6.3% 1.19× 13.33
Draw & over 2.5 7.6% 7.5% 9.5% 0.79× 13.34
Draw & over 3.5 7.6% 7.5% 9.5% 0.79× 13.34
FC Cologne & under 1.5 6.7% 7.5% 6.0% 1.25× 13.34
Draw & under 1.5 5.2% 7.5% 5.9% 1.28× 13.35
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt (1UP) 62.9% 64.0% 59.6% 1.07× 1.56
FC Cologne (1UP) 48.2% 44.6% 52.9% 0.84× 2.24
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt (2UP) 46.6% 49.4% 45.0% 1.10× 2.03
FC Cologne (2UP) 29.4% 31.1% 36.6% 0.85× 3.22
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt to win 2nd half 37.3% 37.5% 37.1% 1.01× 2.67
2nd half drawn 32.5% 33.8% 33.4% 1.01× 2.96
FC Cologne to win 2nd half 30.2% 33.7% 29.6% 1.14× 2.97
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne under 1.5 in 2nd half 79.1% 78.1% 79.2% 0.99× 1.28
FC Cologne over 0.5 in 2nd half 57.2% 56.3% 56.6% 1.00× 1.78
FC Cologne under 0.5 in 2nd half 42.8% 43.7% 43.4% 1.01× 2.29
FC Cologne over 1.5 in 2nd half 20.9% 21.9% 20.8% 1.06× 4.57
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt under 1.5 in 2nd half 74.4% 71.2% 74.8% 0.95× 1.40
Eintracht Frankfurt over 0.5 in 2nd half 62.4% 65.3% 62.1% 1.05× 1.53
Eintracht Frankfurt under 0.5 in 2nd half 37.6% 34.7% 37.9% 0.92× 2.88
Eintracht Frankfurt over 1.5 in 2nd half 25.6% 28.8% 25.2% 1.14× 3.47
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne (+2.5) 89.6% 89.1% 88.3% 1.01× 1.12
FC Cologne (+1.5) 75.4% 78.7% 75.3% 1.04× 1.27
Eintracht Frankfurt (+0.5) 70.6% 73.0% 66.3% 1.10× 1.37
FC Cologne (+0.5) 53.4% 51.9% 58.4% 0.89× 1.93
Eintracht Frankfurt (-0.5) 46.6% 48.1% 41.6% 1.16× 2.08
FC Cologne (-0.5) 29.4% 27.0% 33.7% 0.80× 3.71
Eintracht Frankfurt (-1.5) 24.6% 21.3% 24.7% 0.86× 4.69
Eintracht Frankfurt (-2.5) 10.4% 10.9% 11.7% 0.93× 9.17
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne to concede 81.3% 84.6% 78.8% 1.07× 1.18
FC Cologne clean sheet 18.7% 15.4% 21.2% 0.73× 6.50
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne to concede in 1st half 50.1% 54.5% 51.8% 1.05× 1.83
FC Cologne clean sheet in 1st half 49.9% 45.5% 48.2% 0.94× 2.20
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne to concede in 2nd half 62.4% 63.7% 62.1% 1.03× 1.57
FC Cologne clean sheet in 2nd half 37.6% 36.3% 37.9% 0.96× 2.76
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne under 6.5 corners 78.4% 76.0% 1.32
FC Cologne over 2.5 corners 77.3% 76.0% 1.32
FC Cologne under 5.5 corners 67.5% 67.6% 1.48
FC Cologne over 3.5 corners 61.8% 61.8% 1.62
FC Cologne under 4.5 corners 53.8% 53.1% 1.89
FC Cologne over 4.5 corners 46.2% 46.9% 2.13
FC Cologne under 3.5 corners 38.2% 38.2% 2.62
FC Cologne over 5.5 corners 32.5% 32.4% 3.08
FC Cologne under 2.5 corners 22.7% 24.0% 4.16
FC Cologne over 6.5 corners 21.6% 24.0% 4.16
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne under 3.5 goals 95.9% 97.2% 92.6% 1.05× 1.03
FC Cologne under 2.5 goals 86.1% 89.1% 79.0% 1.13× 1.12
FC Cologne over 0.5 goals 72.2% 72.0% 74.7% 0.96× 1.39
FC Cologne under 1.5 goals 63.3% 63.9% 57.1% 1.12× 1.57
FC Cologne over 1.5 goals 36.7% 36.1% 42.9% 0.84× 2.77
FC Cologne under 0.5 goals 27.8% 28.0% 25.3% 1.10× 3.58
FC Cologne over 2.5 goals 13.9% 10.9% 21.0% 0.52× 9.15
FC Cologne over 3.5 goals 4.1% 2.8% 7.4% 0.37× 36.18
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne under 1.5 in 1st half 92.9% 93.3% 85.7% 1.09× 1.07
FC Cologne under 0.5 in 1st half 64.9% 63.6% 54.4% 1.17× 1.57
FC Cologne over 0.5 in 1st half 35.1% 36.4% 45.6% 0.80× 2.75
FC Cologne over 1.5 in 1st half 7.1% 6.7% 14.3% 0.47× 15.00
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne scores more in 2nd half 43.3% 42.3% 36.9% 1.15× 2.37
FC Cologne scores equally in both 38.9% 38.9% 38.8% 1.00× 2.57
FC Cologne scores more in 1st half 17.8% 18.3% 24.4% 0.75× 5.47
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt (away no bet) 66.0% 72.0% 62.6% 1.15× 1.39
Draw (away no bet) 34.0% 28.0% 37.4% 0.75× 3.57
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne even goals 53.9% 52.2% 53.2% 0.98× 1.91
FC Cologne odd goals 46.1% 47.8% 46.8% 1.02× 2.09
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 83.0% 81.7% 75.8% 1.08× 1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals 17.0% 18.3% 24.2% 0.75× 5.48
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 68.7% 65.3% 72.3% 0.90× 1.53
Both halves under 1.5 goals 31.3% 34.7% 27.7% 1.25× 2.88
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 60.0% 59.5% 66.9% 0.89× 1.68
Eintracht Frankfurt to score 2+ in a row 40.6% 44.9% 42.3% 1.06× 2.23
FC Cologne to score 2+ in a row 27.0% 25.2% 34.7% 0.73× 3.97
Either team to score 3+ in a row 22.5% 21.8% 29.5% 0.74× 4.59
Eintracht Frankfurt to score 3+ in a row 15.3% 17.8% 17.6% 1.01× 5.63
FC Cologne to score 3+ in a row 7.6% 7.3% 12.8% 0.57× 13.63
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt corners (+3.5) 87.5% 84.5% 1.18
Eintracht Frankfurt corners (+2.5) 81.4% 79.8% 1.25
FC Cologne corners (+3.5) 74.7% 70.7% 1.41
Eintracht Frankfurt corners (+1.5) 73.7% 70.7% 1.41
FC Cologne corners (+2.5) 66.0% 65.8% 1.52
FC Cologne corners (+1.5) 56.2% 57.1% 1.75
Eintracht Frankfurt corners (-1.5) 43.8% 42.9% 2.33
Eintracht Frankfurt corners (-2.5) 34.0% 34.2% 2.93
FC Cologne corners (-1.5) 26.3% 29.3% 3.42
Eintracht Frankfurt corners (-3.5) 25.3% 29.3% 3.42
FC Cologne corners (-2.5) 18.6% 20.2% 4.95
FC Cologne corners (-3.5) 12.5% 15.5% 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 36.8% 34.0% 2.94
12+ corners 34.1% 33.2% 3.01
9-11 corners 29.1% 31.2% 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 73.9% 72.6% 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 72.9% 72.6% 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 65.9% 67.7% 1.48
Over 8.5 corners 63.2% 63.3% 1.58
Under 10.5 corners 56.9% 57.9% 1.73
Over 9.5 corners 53.0% 53.2% 1.88
Under 9.5 corners 47.0% 46.8% 2.14
Over 10.5 corners 43.1% 42.1% 2.38
Under 8.5 corners 36.8% 36.7% 2.72
Over 11.5 corners 34.1% 32.3% 3.10
Under 7.5 corners 27.1% 27.4% 3.65
Over 12.5 corners 26.1% 27.4% 3.65
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 11.2% 11.6% 9.8% 1.18× 8.62
2-1 9.3% 7.3% 6.8% 1.07× 13.76
1-0 8.7% 7.3% 6.3% 1.15× 13.76
1-2 7.2% 7.3% 6.8% 1.07× 13.77
2-0 7.3% 7.3% 6.2% 1.18× 13.76
0-1 6.7% 7.3% 6.0% 1.21× 13.77
2-2 6.0% 7.3% 6.3% 1.15× 13.77
0-0 5.2% 7.3% 5.9% 1.24× 13.77
3-1 5.2% 7.3% 6.2% 1.18× 13.77
0-2 4.3% 1.8% 4.4% 0.41× 55.40
3-0 4.1% 1.8% 2.7% 0.67× 55.41
Any other score 3.8% 1.8% 5.4% 0.34× 55.42
1-3 3.1% 1.8% 4.6% 0.39× 55.43
2-3 2.6% 1.8% 2.7% 0.67× 55.44
3-2 3.3% 1.8% 3.5% 0.52× 55.43
0-3 1.8% 1.8% 3.0% 0.60× 55.46
3-3 1.4% 1.8% 3.0% 0.60× 55.47
4-0 1.7% 1.8% 3.6% 0.50× 55.47
4-1 2.2% 1.8% 2.2% 0.81× 55.45
4-2 1.4% 1.8% 1.1% 1.63× 55.47
0-4 0.6% 1.8% 1.6% 1.14× 55.49
1-4 1.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.04× 55.48
2-4 0.8% 1.8% 1.1% 1.63× 55.49
3-4 0.5% 1.8% 1.4% 1.27× 55.50
4-3 0.6% 1.8% 0.9% 1.90× 55.49
4-4 0.2% 1.8% 0.5% 3.80× 55.50
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt (2nd half DNB) 55.2% 58.4% 55.6% 1.05× 1.71
FC Cologne (2nd half DNB) 44.8% 41.6% 44.4% 0.94× 2.40
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt leading at HT (DNB) 64.9% 65.4% 55.5% 1.18× 1.53
FC Cologne leading at HT (DNB) 35.1% 34.6% 44.5% 0.78× 2.89
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt or FC Cologne (12) 76.0% 77.8% 75.2% 1.03× 1.29
Eintracht Frankfurt or draw (1X) 70.6% 72.4% 66.3% 1.09× 1.38
FC Cologne or draw (X2) 53.4% 50.9% 58.4% 0.87× 1.96
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt or draw at HT 79.9% 79.0% 70.7% 1.12× 1.27
FC Cologne or draw at HT 62.9% 63.2% 63.4% 1.00× 1.58
Eintracht Frankfurt or FC Cologne at HT 57.2% 58.1% 65.8% 0.88× 1.72
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt or draw (1UP) 70.6% 77.2% 73.5% 1.05× 1.30
FC Cologne or draw (1UP) 53.4% 58.9% 65.1% 0.90× 1.70
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt or draw in 2nd half 69.8% 66.3% 70.4% 0.94× 1.51
Eintracht Frankfurt or FC Cologne in 2nd half 67.5% 66.2% 66.6% 1.00× 1.51
FC Cologne or draw in 2nd half 62.7% 62.5% 62.9% 0.99× 1.60
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 61.4% 59.4% 53.7% 1.11× 1.69
Neither half drawn 38.6% 40.6% 46.3% 0.88× 2.46
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt (DNB) 61.4% 61.7% 55.3% 1.12× 1.62
FC Cologne (DNB) 38.6% 38.3% 44.7% 0.85× 2.61
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt to score first 53.7% 53.6% 50.7% 1.06× 1.87
FC Cologne to score first 41.1% 41.3% 43.6% 0.95× 2.42
No goal scored 5.2% 6.2% 5.9% 1.06× 16.13
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 58.7% 56.6% 59.3% 0.95× 1.77
Not both teams to score 41.3% 43.4% 40.7% 1.07× 2.30
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 47.5% 45.6% 49.7% 0.92× 2.19
Not both score & under 2.5 32.2% 34.2% 28.2% 1.22× 2.92
Both score & under 2.5 11.2% 11.7% 9.8% 1.19× 8.55
Not both score & over 2.5 9.2% 8.7% 12.7% 0.69× 11.53
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 81.7% 80.9% 79.7% 1.01× 1.24
Both teams to score 2+ 18.3% 19.1% 20.3% 0.94× 5.25
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 64.3% 65.0% 65.6% 0.99× 1.54
Both teams to score in 2nd half 35.7% 35.0% 34.4% 1.02× 2.86
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 53.0% 54.8% 51.7% 1.06× 1.83
Both score 2nd half only 29.4% 24.9% 27.7% 0.90× 4.02
Both score 1st half only 11.3% 11.5% 14.1% 0.82× 8.66
Both score in both halves 6.3% 6.4% 6.8% 0.94× 15.65
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 82.4% 83.2% 79.2% 1.05× 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 17.6% 16.8% 20.8% 0.81× 5.95
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 56.8% 55.7% 66.9% 0.83× 1.80
A half without a goal 43.2% 44.3% 33.1% 1.34× 2.26
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 45.1% 45.9% 38.8% 1.18× 2.18
4-6 goals 31.2% 31.8% 39.9% 0.80× 3.14
0-1 goals 20.6% 22.7% 17.9% 1.27× 4.41
7+ goals 3.1% 1.9% 3.8% 0.51× 51.52
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne to score exactly 1 35.6% 34.6% 32.0% 1.08× 2.89
FC Cologne to score exactly 0 27.8% 27.1% 25.3% 1.07× 3.69
FC Cologne to score exactly 2 22.8% 24.1% 22.0% 1.09× 4.15
FC Cologne to score 3+ 13.9% 13.4% 21.0% 0.64× 7.46
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt to score exactly 1 31.4% 30.4% 29.1% 1.05× 3.29
Eintracht Frankfurt to score exactly 2 26.3% 27.0% 22.6% 1.20× 3.70
Eintracht Frankfurt to score 3+ 23.6% 23.0% 27.4% 0.84× 4.35
Eintracht Frankfurt to score exactly 0 18.7% 18.5% 21.2% 0.87× 5.40
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 42.8% 41.9% 34.2% 1.22× 2.39
Eintracht Frankfurt leading at HT 37.1% 36.8% 36.6% 1.00× 2.72
FC Cologne leading at HT 20.1% 21.0% 29.3% 0.72× 4.76
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt -1: 2 53.4% 51.5% 1.94
Eintracht Frankfurt -1: 1 24.6% 24.0% 4.16
Eintracht Frankfurt -1: X 22.1% 24.0% 4.17
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne (0:1) 53.4% 53.6% 58.4% 0.92× 1.87
Eintracht Frankfurt (0:1) 24.6% 24.6% 24.7% 0.99× 4.07
Draw (0:1) 22.1% 24.5% 17.1% 1.43× 4.08
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne (0:2) 75.4% 77.3% 75.3% 1.03× 1.29
Draw (0:2) 14.1% 11.6% 13.1% 0.89× 8.59
Eintracht Frankfurt (0:2) 10.4% 11.5% 11.7% 0.99× 8.67
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne (0:3) 89.6% 88.7% 88.3% 1.00× 1.13
Draw (0:3) 6.8% 6.8% 5.1% 1.34× 14.70
Eintracht Frankfurt (0:3) 3.7% 2.3% 6.8% 0.34× 43.03
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne (0:4) 96.3% 98.1% 93.2% 1.05× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.6% 1.2% 5.2% 0.24× 80.80
Eintracht Frankfurt (0:4) 1.1% 1.2% 1.7% 0.70× 81.58
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt (1:0) 70.6% 73.4% 66.3% 1.11× 1.36
Draw (1:0) 16.9% 16.4% 16.5% 1.00× 6.10
FC Cologne (1:0) 12.5% 11.7% 17.4% 0.67× 8.58
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt (2:0) 87.5% 89.3% 82.6% 1.08× 1.12
Draw (2:0) 8.3% 6.5% 10.0% 0.66× 15.30
FC Cologne (2:0) 4.2% 2.7% 7.6% 0.36× 36.61
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 53.7% 51.0% 46.9% 1.09× 1.96
1st half highest scoring 23.4% 23.2% 26.3% 0.88× 4.32
Halves equal 22.9% 23.1% 26.9% 0.86× 4.32
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt to concede 72.2% 71.4% 74.7% 0.96× 1.40
Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet 27.8% 28.6% 25.3% 1.13× 3.50
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet in 1st half 64.9% 63.4% 54.4% 1.17× 1.58
Eintracht Frankfurt to concede in 1st half 35.1% 36.6% 45.6% 0.80× 2.74
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt to concede in 2nd half 57.2% 56.0% 56.6% 0.99× 1.79
Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet in 2nd half 42.8% 44.0% 43.4% 1.01× 2.27
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt over 2.5 corners 85.2% 86.3% 1.16
Eintracht Frankfurt over 3.5 corners 73.2% 71.9% 1.39
Eintracht Frankfurt under 6.5 corners 66.3% 66.7% 1.50
Eintracht Frankfurt over 4.5 corners 59.4% 57.6% 1.74
Eintracht Frankfurt under 5.5 corners 54.2% 52.6% 1.90
Eintracht Frankfurt over 5.5 corners 45.8% 47.4% 2.11
Eintracht Frankfurt under 4.5 corners 40.6% 42.4% 2.36
Eintracht Frankfurt over 6.5 corners 33.7% 33.3% 3.01
Eintracht Frankfurt under 3.5 corners 26.8% 28.1% 3.56
Eintracht Frankfurt under 2.5 corners 14.8% 13.7% 7.30
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt under 3.5 goals 91.1% 92.2% 88.6% 1.04× 1.09
Eintracht Frankfurt over 0.5 goals 81.3% 82.5% 78.8% 1.05× 1.21
Eintracht Frankfurt under 2.5 goals 76.4% 76.9% 72.6% 1.06× 1.30
Eintracht Frankfurt under 1.5 goals 50.1% 52.9% 50.2% 1.05× 1.89
Eintracht Frankfurt over 1.5 goals 49.9% 47.1% 49.8% 0.95× 2.12
Eintracht Frankfurt over 2.5 goals 23.6% 23.1% 27.4% 0.84× 4.32
Eintracht Frankfurt under 0.5 goals 18.7% 17.5% 21.2% 0.83× 5.71
Eintracht Frankfurt over 3.5 goals 8.9% 7.8% 11.4% 0.69× 12.75
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt under 1.5 in 1st half 84.6% 80.6% 80.8% 1.00× 1.24
Eintracht Frankfurt over 0.5 in 1st half 50.1% 54.5% 51.8% 1.05× 1.84
Eintracht Frankfurt under 0.5 in 1st half 49.9% 45.5% 48.2% 0.94× 2.20
Eintracht Frankfurt over 1.5 in 1st half 15.4% 19.4% 19.2% 1.01× 5.16
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt scores more in 2nd half 41.0% 40.3% 37.7% 1.07× 2.48
Eintracht Frankfurt scores equally in both 33.9% 31.6% 36.8% 0.86× 3.16
Eintracht Frankfurt scores more in 1st half 25.2% 27.8% 25.7% 1.08× 3.60
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne (home no bet) 55.0% 54.2% 57.6% 0.94× 1.84
Draw (home no bet) 45.0% 45.8% 42.4% 1.08× 2.19
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt even goals 51.8% 50.2% 52.5% 0.96× 1.99
Eintracht Frankfurt odd goals 48.2% 49.8% 47.5% 1.05× 2.01
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 32.3% 30.5% 23.3% 1.31× 3.28
HT 1-0 22.5% 22.7% 19.3% 1.17× 4.41
HT 0-1 14.0% 11.2% 16.5% 0.68× 8.92
HT 1-1 9.7% 7.7% 9.8% 0.79× 12.96
HT 2-0 7.8% 7.7% 9.5% 0.81× 12.99
Any other HT score 4.3% 2.5% 6.7% 0.38× 39.75
HT 2-1 3.4% 2.5% 4.3% 0.59× 39.81
HT 0-2 3.0% 2.5% 7.1% 0.35× 39.83
HT 1-2 2.1% 2.5% 3.5% 0.72× 39.88
HT 2-2 0.7% 2.5% 1.3% 1.97× 39.96
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt at HT / Eintracht Frankfurt at FT 28.3% 27.3% 28.1% 0.97× 3.66
Draw at HT / Eintracht Frankfurt at FT 16.0% 16.8% 10.6% 1.58× 5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 13.9% 12.0% 13.9% 0.86× 8.37
FC Cologne at HT / FC Cologne at FT 13.6% 11.9% 20.3% 0.59× 8.37
Draw at HT / FC Cologne at FT 13.0% 11.9% 10.0% 1.20× 8.37
Eintracht Frankfurt at HT / Draw at FT 6.0% 6.6% 5.1% 1.29× 15.25
FC Cologne at HT / Draw at FT 4.1% 3.4% 6.0% 0.57× 29.33
Eintracht Frankfurt at HT / FC Cologne at FT 2.9% 3.4% 3.8% 0.89× 29.38
FC Cologne at HT / Eintracht Frankfurt at FT 2.4% 3.4% 3.3% 1.02× 29.40
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt to score last 53.7% 53.6% 49.8% 1.08× 1.87
FC Cologne to score last 41.1% 40.3% 44.5% 0.90× 2.48
No goal scored 5.2% 6.2% 5.9% 1.06× 16.13
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 94.8% 93.8% 94.1% 1.00× 1.07
Eintracht Frankfurt to lead by 1 at any time 62.9% 64.4% 59.6% 1.08× 1.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 50.0% 50.9% 55.9% 0.91× 1.97
FC Cologne to lead by 1 at any time 48.2% 46.1% 52.9% 0.87× 2.17
Eintracht Frankfurt to lead by 2 at any time 31.7% 31.8% 33.1% 0.96× 3.14
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 18.8% 17.6% 25.7% 0.69× 5.67
FC Cologne to lead by 2 at any time 18.6% 17.6% 23.6% 0.75× 5.67
Eintracht Frankfurt to lead by 3 at any time 13.0% 11.4% 15.5% 0.73× 8.80
FC Cologne to lead by 3 at any time 5.8% 7.0% 10.3% 0.68× 14.26
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt most corners 54.2% 52.0% 1.93
FC Cologne most corners 35.6% 39.2% 2.55
Corners level 10.2% 10.4% 9.60
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.9% 87.9% 83.2% 1.06× 1.14
1-4 goals 77.1% 78.9% 72.3% 1.09× 1.27
2-6 goals 76.3% 78.9% 78.5% 1.01× 1.27
2-5 goals 71.5% 73.6% 71.2% 1.03× 1.36
2-4 goals 61.7% 62.2% 60.3% 1.03× 1.61
1-3 goals 60.5% 62.2% 50.8% 1.22× 1.61
3-6 goals 53.6% 52.4% 58.5% 0.89× 1.91
3-5 goals 48.7% 48.0% 51.3% 0.94× 2.08
2-3 goals 45.1% 48.0% 38.8% 1.24× 2.09
3-4 goals 39.0% 38.9% 40.3% 0.96× 2.57
1-2 goals 38.1% 38.9% 32.1% 1.21× 2.57
4-6 goals 31.2% 34.0% 39.9% 0.85× 2.94
4-5 goals 26.3% 30.5% 32.6% 0.94× 3.27
5-6 goals 14.6% 13.6% 18.4% 0.74× 7.38
7+ goals 3.1% 2.0% 3.8% 0.53× 49.55
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt never behind 46.6% 53.6% 47.1% 1.14× 1.87
FC Cologne never behind 31.9% 36.2% 40.4% 0.90× 2.76
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.9% 50.2% 44.8% 1.12× 1.99
Even number of goals 50.1% 49.8% 55.2% 0.90× 2.01
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.2% 55.2% 52.6% 1.05× 1.81
Odd goals in 1st half 44.8% 44.8% 47.4% 0.94× 2.23
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.3% 51.7% 52.9% 0.98× 1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.7% 48.3% 47.1% 1.03× 2.07
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 94.8% 93.0% 94.1% 0.99× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 92.1% 93.0% 88.9% 1.05× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 82.3% 81.0% 78.0% 1.04× 1.24
Over 1.5 goals 79.4% 78.1% 82.1% 0.95× 1.28
Under 3.5 goals 65.7% 65.2% 56.5% 1.15× 1.53
Over 2.5 goals 56.7% 57.5% 62.2% 0.92× 1.74
Under 2.5 goals 43.3% 42.5% 37.8% 1.12× 2.35
Over 3.5 goals 34.3% 34.8% 43.5% 0.80× 2.88
Under 1.5 goals 20.6% 21.9% 17.9% 1.22× 4.58
Over 4.5 goals 17.7% 19.0% 22.0% 0.86× 5.26
Over 5.5 goals 7.9% 7.0% 11.1% 0.63× 14.24
Under 0.5 goals 5.2% 7.0% 5.9% 1.19× 14.30
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 96.7% 97.2% 95.9% 1.01× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 91.2% 92.8% 87.6% 1.06× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 78.8% 76.5% 72.0% 1.06× 1.31
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 73.4% 72.2% 77.7% 0.93× 1.39
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 55.8% 55.5% 46.5% 1.19× 1.80
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 44.2% 44.5% 53.5% 0.83× 2.25
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 26.6% 27.8% 22.3% 1.24× 3.60
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 21.2% 23.5% 28.0% 0.84× 4.26
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 8.8% 7.2% 12.4% 0.58× 13.87
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 3.3% 2.8% 4.1% 0.67× 36.25
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 89.5% 88.2% 84.8% 1.04× 1.13
Under 1.5 in 1st half 68.9% 68.6% 58.8% 1.17× 1.46
Over 0.5 in 1st half 67.7% 68.6% 76.7% 0.89× 1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half 32.3% 31.4% 23.3% 1.35× 3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half 31.1% 31.4% 41.2% 0.76× 3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half 10.5% 11.8% 15.2% 0.78× 8.44
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 83.9% 82.1% 84.3% 0.97× 1.22
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 72.3% 76.2% 73.4% 1.04× 1.31
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 45.5% 51.7% 44.7% 1.16× 1.94
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 54.5% 48.3% 55.3% 0.87× 2.07
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 27.7% 23.8% 26.6% 0.89× 4.20
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 16.1% 17.9% 15.7% 1.14× 5.57
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne not to score in both halves 79.9% 78.1% 72.4% 1.08× 1.28
Eintracht Frankfurt not to score in both halves 68.7% 67.1% 64.8% 1.03× 1.49
Eintracht Frankfurt to score in both halves 31.3% 32.9% 35.2% 0.94× 3.04
FC Cologne to score in both halves 20.1% 21.9% 27.6% 0.80× 4.56
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 58.7% 57.9% 59.3% 0.98× 1.73
Only Eintracht Frankfurt scores 22.6% 22.8% 19.6% 1.16× 4.38
Only FC Cologne scores 13.5% 10.9% 15.5% 0.70× 9.19
Neither team scores 5.2% 6.6% 5.9% 1.12× 15.19
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 22.7% 21.6% 20.1% 1.07× 4.63
Exactly 3 goals 22.4% 21.6% 18.8% 1.15× 4.63
Exactly 4 goals 16.6% 18.6% 21.7% 0.86× 5.39
Exactly 1 goals 15.4% 18.5% 12.2% 1.52× 5.40
Exactly 5 goals 9.8% 7.6% 11.1% 0.69× 13.10
6 or more goals 7.9% 7.6% 11.1% 0.69× 13.12
Exactly 0 goals 5.2% 7.6% 5.9% 1.30× 13.16
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 36.5% 37.3% 35.7% 1.05× 2.68
No goals in 1st half 32.3% 32.5% 23.3% 1.40× 3.07
2 goals in 1st half 20.6% 21.6% 26.1% 0.82× 4.64
3+ goals in 1st half 10.5% 11.8% 15.2% 0.78× 8.46
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 54.5% 47.7% 55.3% 0.86× 2.10
1 goal in 2nd half 29.4% 28.5% 29.2% 0.98× 3.51
No goals in 2nd half 16.1% 18.3% 15.7% 1.17× 5.47
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne not to win both halves 93.9% 93.5% 90.5% 1.03× 1.07
Eintracht Frankfurt not to win both halves 86.2% 87.5% 84.2% 1.04× 1.14
Eintracht Frankfurt to win both halves 13.8% 12.5% 15.8% 0.79× 8.01
FC Cologne to win both halves 6.1% 6.5% 9.5% 0.69× 15.32
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eintracht Frankfurt to win either half 60.5% 63.6% 57.8% 1.10× 1.57
FC Cologne to win neither half 55.8% 59.4% 50.6% 1.18× 1.68
FC Cologne to win either half 44.2% 40.6% 49.4% 0.82× 2.46
Eintracht Frankfurt to win neither half 39.5% 36.4% 42.2% 0.86× 2.75
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Cologne not to win to nil 86.5% 88.1% 84.5% 1.04× 1.13
Eintracht Frankfurt not to win to nil 77.4% 77.2% 80.4% 0.96× 1.30
Eintracht Frankfurt to win to nil 22.6% 22.8% 19.6% 1.16× 4.38
FC Cologne to win to nil 13.5% 11.9% 15.5% 0.76× 8.44
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 24.0% 23.9% 24.8% 0.96× 4.19
Eintracht Frankfurt by 1 22.1% 23.9% 17.1% 1.40× 4.19
FC Cologne by 1 16.9% 17.1% 16.5% 1.04× 5.86
Eintracht Frankfurt by 2 14.1% 11.7% 13.1% 0.89× 8.52
Eintracht Frankfurt by 3+ 10.4% 11.7% 11.7% 1.00× 8.55
FC Cologne by 2 8.3% 7.0% 10.0% 0.71× 14.21
FC Cologne by 3+ 4.2% 2.8% 7.6% 0.38× 35.12
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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