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Eintracht Frankfurt v FC Heidenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 April 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated

Eintracht Frankfurt
3–0
3.65 – 1.29 xG
FC Heidenheim
Shots
19 – 14
On target
8 – 3
Shots in box
13 – 7
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.45
Goals − xG
-0.65 – -1.32

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Eintracht Frankfurt win
56.4%
Draw
23.0%
FC Heidenheim win
20.5%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Eintracht Frankfurt are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LDWLDLLDDL last 10 scored 16 from 17.1 xG conceded 23 from 20.0 xG

FC Heidenheim have scored 19 from 17.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LLDDWLWDWL last 10 scored 19 from 17.3 xG conceded 19 from 18.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTSOutcome
ai-blend-oos 1.96–1.12 0% 0% 0% Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.01.02.03.14.10'15'30'45'60'75'90'Jean Négoce 9' — goalRobin Koch 41' — goalHugo Ekitike 70' — goal
Eintracht Frankfurt 3.65 xGFC Heidenheim 1.32 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Hugo Ekitike 4' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Marvin Pieringer 5' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jan Schöppner 6' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, From Corner)Tim Siersleben 6' — Saved Shot (0.32 xG, From Corner)Jan Schöppner 7' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jean Négoce 9' — Goal (0.66 xG, Open Play)Hugo Ekitike 14' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Arthur Theate 18' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Farès Chaïbi 19' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Marnon Busch 31' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Arthur Theate 34' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Jean Négoce 34' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Robin Koch 41' — Goal (0.39 xG, Open Play)Can Uzun 43' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Robin Koch 45' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Marvin Pieringer 46' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Sirlord Conteh 47' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Sirlord Conteh 50' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Sirlord Conteh 55' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Marvin Pieringer 56' — Missed Shot (0.52 xG, Open Play)Arthur Theate 60' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jan Schöppner 61' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Hugo Ekitike 62' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Oscar Højlund 62' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Marnon Busch 62' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Omar Traoré 68' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Hugo Ekitike 70' — Goal (0.68 xG, Open Play)Arthur Theate 74' — Saved Shot (0.43 xG, Open Play)Sepe Elye Wahi 77' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Thomas Keller 79' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Sepe Elye Wahi 84' — Missed Shot (0.47 xG, Open Play)Sepe Elye Wahi 86' — Saved Shot (0.39 xG, Open Play)Farès Chaïbi 89' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)
Eintracht Frankfurt attacking right FC Heidenheim attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
4' Eintracht Frankfurt Hugo Ekitike 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Can Uzun
5' FC Heidenheim Marvin Pieringer 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Adrian Beck
6' FC Heidenheim Jan Schöppner 0.11 From Corner — Missed Shot Frans Krätzig
6' FC Heidenheim Tim Siersleben 0.32 From Corner — Saved Shot Jan Schöppner
7' FC Heidenheim Jan Schöppner 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Marvin Pieringer
9' Eintracht Frankfurt Jean Négoce 0.66 Open Play Left Foot Goal Farès Chaïbi
14' Eintracht Frankfurt Hugo Ekitike 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Jean Négoce
18' Eintracht Frankfurt Arthur Theate 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Hugo Ekitike
19' Eintracht Frankfurt Farès Chaïbi 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Robin Koch
31' FC Heidenheim Marnon Busch 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
34' Eintracht Frankfurt Arthur Theate 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Rasmus Kristensen
34' Eintracht Frankfurt Jean Négoce 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Farès Chaïbi
41' Eintracht Frankfurt Robin Koch 0.39 Open Play Left Foot Goal Hugo Ekitike
43' Eintracht Frankfurt Can Uzun 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Rasmus Kristensen
45' Eintracht Frankfurt Robin Koch 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Farès Chaïbi
46' FC Heidenheim Marvin Pieringer 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Sirlord Conteh
47' FC Heidenheim Sirlord Conteh 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
50' FC Heidenheim Sirlord Conteh 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Omar Traoré
55' FC Heidenheim Sirlord Conteh 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Frans Krätzig
56' FC Heidenheim Marvin Pieringer 0.52 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Sirlord Conteh
60' Eintracht Frankfurt Arthur Theate 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Ellyes Skhiri
61' FC Heidenheim Jan Schöppner 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Sirlord Conteh
62' Eintracht Frankfurt Hugo Ekitike 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Ellyes Skhiri
62' Eintracht Frankfurt Oscar Højlund 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
62' FC Heidenheim Marnon Busch 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Paul Wanner
68' FC Heidenheim Omar Traoré 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Jonas Föhrenbach
70' Eintracht Frankfurt Hugo Ekitike 0.68 Open Play Right Foot Goal Nathaniel Brown
74' Eintracht Frankfurt Arthur Theate 0.43 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot —
77' Eintracht Frankfurt Sepe Elye Wahi 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Arthur Theate
79' FC Heidenheim Thomas Keller 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
84' Eintracht Frankfurt Sepe Elye Wahi 0.47 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
86' Eintracht Frankfurt Sepe Elye Wahi 0.39 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Nathaniel Brown
89' Eintracht Frankfurt Farès Chaïbi 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Nathaniel Brown

Players

Eintracht Frankfurt

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Arthur Theate DL 90 0 0 4 1 0.58 0.03 1.66
Robin Koch DC 90 1 0 2 1 0.40 0.02 1.71
Farès Chaïbi AMR 90 0 1 2 3 0.03 0.76 2.03
Tuta DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.53
Kauã Santos GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.86
Ellyes Skhiri DMC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.11 0.67
Hugo Ekitike FW 77 1 1 4 2 0.90 0.48 2.64
Jean Négoce AML 71 1 0 2 1 0.75 0.10 0.89
Oscar Højlund DMC 71 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Can Uzun AMC 62 0 0 1 1 0.08 0.02 0.30
Rasmus Kristensen DR 62 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.12 0.40
Nnamdi Collins Sub 28 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.43
Nathaniel Brown Sub 28 0 1 0 3 0.00 1.08 1.51
Hugo Larsson Sub 19 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.43
Mario Götze Sub 19 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.13
Sepe Elye Wahi Sub 13 0 0 3 0 0.88 0.00 0.88

FC Heidenheim

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Tim Siersleben DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.32 0.00 0.59
Jan Schöppner MC 90 0 0 3 1 0.21 0.32 0.20
Omar Traoré MR 90 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.09 0.10
Adrian Beck FW 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.64
Patrick Mainka DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Kevin Müller GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Marvin Pieringer FW 77 0 0 3 1 0.59 0.02 0.66
Marnon Busch DC 69 0 0 2 0 0.04 0.00 0.53
Frans Krätzig ML 69 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.16 0.11
Niklas Dorsch MC 47 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Benedikt Gimber DMC 47 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sirlord Conteh Sub 43 0 0 3 3 0.15 0.65 0.81
Paul Wanner Sub 43 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.52
Jonas Föhrenbach Sub 21 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.01
Stefan Schimmer Sub 21 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Thomas Keller Sub 13 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.01
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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