Eintracht Frankfurt v FC Heidenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 14 March 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 4
On target
4 – 1
Shots in box
9 – 3
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.03
Set-piece xG
0.17 – 0.05
Goals − xG
+0.27 – -0.14
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Eintracht Frankfurt win
67.4%
Draw
19.3%
FC Heidenheim win
13.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Eintracht Frankfurt have scored 16 from 17.9 expected and conceded 24 from 22.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLLDDLWDLW last 10
scored 16
from 17.9 xG
conceded 24
from 22.2 xG
FC Heidenheim have scored 19 from 17.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLDDWLWDWL last 10
scored 19
from 17.3 xG
conceded 19
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.38–0.99 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.45–1.17 | 2-1 9% | 70% | 63% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Eintracht Frankfurt 0.73 xGFC Heidenheim 0.14 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Eintracht Frankfurt attacking right
FC Heidenheim attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12' |
 Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Larsson | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga |
| 42' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jean Négoce | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab |
| 43' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jean Négoce | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 43' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jean Négoce | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ritsu Doan | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jean Négoce |
| 49' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ritsu Doan | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga | 0.09 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Robin Koch |
| 59' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Farès Chaïbi | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Ritsu Doan |
| 65' |
 FC Heidenheim |
Luca Kerber | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hennes Behrens |
| 71' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Robin Koch | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Farès Chaïbi |
| 72' |
FC Heidenheim |
Eren Sami Dinkci | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hennes Behrens |
| 74' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ritsu Doan | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jean Négoce |
| 78' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga |
| 78' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Farès Chaïbi | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 78' |
FC Heidenheim |
Budu Zivzivadze | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Hennes Behrens |
| 86' |
FC Heidenheim |
Omar Traoré | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Eintracht Frankfurt
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Négoce FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.16 | 0.36 |
| Hugo Larsson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Aurèle Amenda DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Nnamdi Collins DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nathaniel Brown DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Michael Zetterer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ritsu Doan MC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.08 | 0.39 |
| Farès Chaïbi MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.25 |
| Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga FW | 80 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab FWR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| Robin Koch DC | 73 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.24 |
| Jonathan Burkardt Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ellyes Skhiri Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Elias Baum Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Love Arrhov Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oscar Højlund Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
FC Heidenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eren Sami Dinkci FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Benedikt Gimber DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Diant Ramaj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Patrick Mainka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Hennes Behrens DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| Jan Schöppner MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Marnon Busch DR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Luca Kerber MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Budu Zivzivadze FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Niklas Dorsch MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arijon Ibrahimovic FWL | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mikkel Kaufmann Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Sirlord Conteh Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Mathias Honsak Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stefan Schimmer Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Omar Traoré Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |