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Eintracht Frankfurt v Freiburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 1 March 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated

Eintracht Frankfurt
2–0
1.67 – 0.64 xG
Freiburg
Shots
15 – 4
On target
7 – 2
Shots in box
12 – 4
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.16 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.32 – -0.65

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Eintracht Frankfurt win
46.2%
Draw
25.0%
Freiburg win
28.8%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Eintracht Frankfurt have scored 16 from 17.9 expected and conceded 24 from 22.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

DLLDDLWDLW last 10 scored 16 from 17.9 xG conceded 24 from 22.2 xG

Freiburg are finishing sharply above their chances — 6.0 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.

LDLWWWWDWL last 10 scored 22 from 16.0 xG conceded 15 from 14.0 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTSOutcome
ai-blend-oos 1.79–1.38 0% 0% 0% Home ✓
dc-xg-oos 1.68–1.30 1-1 11% 57% 59% Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.50.91.41.90'15'30'45'60'75'90'Farès Chaïbi 63' — goalJean Négoce 80' — goal
Eintracht Frankfurt 1.68 xGFreiburg 0.65 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Robin Koch 11' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Jonathan Burkardt 23' — Saved Shot (0.64 xG, Open Play)Nathaniel Brown 23' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga 28' — Saved Shot (0.28 xG, Open Play)Igor Matanovic 46' — Shot On Post (0.43 xG, Open Play)Jean Négoce 48' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Set Piece)Vincenzo Grifo 48' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga 53' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Mario Götze 58' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Farès Chaïbi 63' — Goal (0.06 xG, Open Play)Nathaniel Brown 69' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga 73' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Jean Négoce 80' — Goal (0.07 xG, Open Play)Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab 83' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Derry Scherhant 85' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Igor Matanovic 85' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga 87' — Saved Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Jean Négoce 87' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Jean Négoce 93' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)
Eintracht Frankfurt attacking right Freiburg attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
11' Eintracht Frankfurt Robin Koch 0.05 From Corner — Blocked Shot Nathaniel Brown
23' Eintracht Frankfurt Jonathan Burkardt 0.64 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot —
23' Eintracht Frankfurt Nathaniel Brown 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga
28' Eintracht Frankfurt Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga 0.28 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Mario Götze
46' Freiburg Igor Matanovic 0.43 Open Play — Shot On Post Christian Günter
48' Eintracht Frankfurt Jean Négoce 0.04 Set Piece Left Foot Blocked Shot Aurèle Amenda
48' Freiburg Vincenzo Grifo 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot —
53' Eintracht Frankfurt Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Mario Götze
58' Eintracht Frankfurt Mario Götze 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga
63' Eintracht Frankfurt Farès Chaïbi 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Goal Nnamdi Collins
69' Eintracht Frankfurt Nathaniel Brown 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga
73' Eintracht Frankfurt Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Farès Chaïbi
80' Eintracht Frankfurt Jean Négoce 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Goal Farès Chaïbi
83' Eintracht Frankfurt Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Ritsu Doan
85' Freiburg Derry Scherhant 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot —
85' Freiburg Igor Matanovic 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
87' Eintracht Frankfurt Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Jean Négoce
87' Eintracht Frankfurt Jean Négoce 0.03 From Corner — Saved Shot Aurèle Amenda
93' Eintracht Frankfurt Jean Négoce 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Ritsu Doan

Players

Eintracht Frankfurt

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga MR 90 0 0 4 3 0.55 0.14 0.68
Jean Négoce ML 90 1 0 4 1 0.21 0.12 0.36
Nathaniel Brown DR 90 0 0 2 1 0.05 0.05 0.52
Robin Koch DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.64
Nnamdi Collins DL 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.75
Aurèle Amenda DC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.06 0.59
Michael Zetterer Sub 86 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.24
Jonathan Burkardt FW 81 0 0 1 0 0.64 0.00 0.80
Hugo Larsson DMC 81 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Mario Götze MC 67 0 0 1 2 0.09 0.31 0.40
Oscar Højlund MC 67 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Farès Chaïbi Sub 23 1 1 1 2 0.06 0.19 0.32
Ritsu Doan Sub 23 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.12 0.38
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab Sub 9 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.07
Ellyes Skhiri Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Kauã Santos GK 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Freiburg

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Igor Matanovic FW 90 0 0 2 0 0.50 0.00 0.50
Philipp Treu DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.43
Noah Atubolu GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.43
Maximilian Eggestein DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Matthias Ginter DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.43
Christian Günter DL 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.43 0.43
Bruno Ogbus DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.43
Yuito Suzuki AMR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Patrick Osterhage DMC 84 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vincenzo Grifo AML 76 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.07
Lucas Höler AMC 76 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Derry Scherhant Sub 14 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.07
Cyriaque Irié Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nicolas Höfler Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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