Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburger SV — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 2 May 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 9
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
5 – 4
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.42 – 0.14
Goals − xG
+0.01 – +1.37
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Eintracht Frankfurt win
59.4%
Draw
22.0%
Hamburger SV win
18.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Eintracht Frankfurt have scored 16 from 17.9 expected and conceded 24 from 22.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLLDDLWDLW last 10
scored 16
from 17.9 xG
conceded 24
from 22.2 xG
Hamburger SV have scored 13 from 12.9 expected and conceded 21 from 19.9 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWDLLLWWW last 10
scored 13
from 12.9 xG
conceded 21
from 19.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.90–0.96 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.16–1.03 | 2-1 10% | 62% | 57% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Eintracht Frankfurt 0.99 xGHamburger SV 0.63 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Eintracht Frankfurt attacking right
Hamburger SV attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 14' |
 Eintracht Frankfurt |
Can Uzun | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 25' |
Hamburger SV |
Albert Sambi Lokonga | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bakery Jatta |
| 26' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Albert Sambi Lokonga |
| 30' |
Hamburger SV |
Bakery Jatta | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolás Capaldo |
| 33' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 37' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Can Uzun | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hugo Larsson |
| 38' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Can Uzun | 0.30 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ansgar Knauff |
| 42' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Can Uzun | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jonathan Burkardt |
| 50' |
Hamburger SV |
Albert Grønbæk | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Warmed Omari |
| 52' |
Hamburger SV |
Albert Grønbæk | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 54' |
Hamburger SV |
Nicolás Capaldo | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 58' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Albert Grønbæk |
| 73' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Farès Chaïbi | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 92' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Younes Ebnoutalib | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Can Uzun |
| 96' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jean Négoce | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Farès Chaïbi |
Players
Eintracht Frankfurt
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Can Uzun MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.72 | 0.04 | 0.47 |
| Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Aurèle Amenda DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Robin Koch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Michael Zetterer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Nathaniel Brown DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Ansgar Knauff MR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Hugo Larsson MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Jonathan Burkardt FW | 63 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| Oscar Højlund MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ellyes Skhiri DC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Farès Chaïbi Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Jean Négoce Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Rasmus Kristensen Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Younes Ebnoutalib Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Hamburger SV
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fábio Vieira FWR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Nicolás Capaldo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Nicolai Remberg MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Ransford Königsdörffer FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Warmed Omari DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Daniel Heuer Fernandes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Jordan Torunarigha DC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Albert Sambi Lokonga MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.38 |
| Albert Grønbæk DML | 80 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Bakery Jatta DMR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| Robert Glatzel FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giorgi Gocholeishvili Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Damion Downs Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luka Vuskovic Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Elfadli Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yussuf Poulsen Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |