Eintracht Frankfurt v RasenBallsport Leipzig — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 26 April 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 7
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
7 – 3
xG per shot
0.25 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
1.34 – 0.11
Goals − xG
+1.74 – -0.32
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Eintracht Frankfurt win
45.9%
Draw
25.0%
RasenBallsport Leipzig win
29.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Eintracht Frankfurt are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDWLDLLDDL last 10
scored 16
from 17.1 xG
conceded 23
from 20.0 xG
RasenBallsport Leipzig are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWWWWLWLWL last 10
scored 22
from 24.3 xG
conceded 15
from 15.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.72–1.33 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Eintracht Frankfurt 2.26 xGRasenBallsport Leipzig 0.32 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Eintracht Frankfurt attacking right
RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12' |
 RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Christoph Baumgartner |
| 17' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
El Chadaille Bitshiabu | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Nicolas Seiwald |
| 20' |
 Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ansgar Knauff | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Hugo Ekitike |
| 29' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Tuta | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 37' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hugo Larsson |
| 39' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ansgar Knauff | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hugo Ekitike |
| 52' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ansgar Knauff | 0.12 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 52' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Arthur Theate | 0.16 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 54' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Loïs Openda | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 59' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Loïs Openda | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bote Baku |
| 66' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.45 | From Corner | — | Goal | Jean Négoce |
| 70' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Nathaniel Brown | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ellyes Skhiri |
| 70' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Robin Koch | 0.48 | From Corner | — | Goal | Nathaniel Brown |
| 79' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Loïs Openda | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 84' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Bote Baku | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 90' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Tidiam Gomis | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Eintracht Frankfurt
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robin Koch DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Tuta DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nathaniel Brown DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.48 | 0.02 |
| Kevin Trapp GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Hugo Larsson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.92 |
| Ellyes Skhiri MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.90 |
| Nnamdi Collins DMR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Hugo Ekitike FW | 85 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.47 | 0.90 | 0.92 |
| Arthur Theate DC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| Ansgar Knauff AMC | 78 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.01 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| Jean Négoce AMC | 78 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.92 |
| Sepe Elye Wahi Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oscar Højlund Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aurèle Amenda Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Farès Chaïbi Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Timothy Chandler Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bote Baku MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Castello Lukeba DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Lutsharel Geertruida DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maarten Vandevoordt GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Lukas Klostermann DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolas Seiwald MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Benjamin Sesko FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Xavi Simons AMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Christoph Baumgartner MC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| El Chadaille Bitshiabu DC | 53 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Kosta Nedeljkovic DMR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Loïs Openda Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Arthur Vermeeren Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tidiam Gomis Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Antonio Nusa Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amadou Haidara Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |