Eintracht Frankfurt v Union Berlin — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 21 September 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 11
On target
10 – 5
Shots in box
12 – 9
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.20
Set-piece xG
1.00 – 0.03
Goals − xG
+1.24 – +1.76
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Eintracht Frankfurt win
62.9%
Draw
21.6%
Union Berlin win
15.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Eintracht Frankfurt are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDWLDLLDDL last 10
scored 16
from 17.1 xG
conceded 23
from 20.0 xG
Union Berlin have scored 16 from 14.7 expected and conceded 23 from 23.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LDLLLDWWDL last 10
scored 16
from 14.7 xG
conceded 23
from 23.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.15–1.00 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.10–1.14 | 2-1 10% | 63% | 60% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Eintracht Frankfurt 1.76 xGUnion Berlin 2.24 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Eintracht Frankfurt attacking right
Union Berlin attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Eintracht Frankfurt |
Nathaniel Brown | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Hugo Larsson |
| 8' |
 Union Berlin |
Ilyas Ansah | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 10' |
Union Berlin |
Oliver Burke | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Farès Chaïbi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hugo Larsson |
| 17' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Can Uzun | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nathaniel Brown |
| 18' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ritsu Doan | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Farès Chaïbi |
| 19' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Can Uzun | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Farès Chaïbi |
| 30' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jean Négoce | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ritsu Doan |
| 31' |
Union Berlin |
Oliver Burke | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Andrej Ilic |
| 34' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ritsu Doan | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Farès Chaïbi |
| 42' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Sepe Elye Wahi | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nathaniel Brown |
| 45' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jean Négoce | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Can Uzun |
| 47' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Nathaniel Brown | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Sepe Elye Wahi |
| 49' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Christopher Trimmel |
| 51' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Can Uzun | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Ritsu Doan |
| 52' |
Union Berlin |
Oliver Burke | 0.36 | Open Play | — | Goal | Andrej Ilic |
| 55' |
Union Berlin |
Oliver Burke | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Andrej Ilic |
| 59' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Larsson | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 73' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ritsu Doan | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Can Uzun |
| 76' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Arthur Theate | 0.13 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Can Uzun |
| 77' |
Union Berlin |
Oliver Burke | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Janik Haberer |
| 78' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Michy Batshuayi | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ansgar Knauff |
| 79' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Can Uzun | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 86' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 89' |
Union Berlin |
Leopold Querfeld | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 90' |
Union Berlin |
Aljoscha Kemlein | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 90' |
Union Berlin |
Janik Haberer | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 93' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Robin Koch | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Can Uzun |
| 93' |
Union Berlin |
Woo-Yeong Jeong | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Aljoscha Kemlein |
| 97' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Can Uzun | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arthur Theate |
Players
Eintracht Frankfurt
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Can Uzun MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0.24 | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| Arthur Theate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 0.34 |
| Ritsu Doan FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.36 |
| Nathaniel Brown DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.47 |
| Robin Koch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Nnamdi Collins DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Kauã Santos GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Sepe Elye Wahi FW | 74 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| Jean Négoce FWL | 66 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Hugo Larsson MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| Farès Chaïbi MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.14 | 0.27 |
| Jonathan Burkardt Sub | 24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ansgar Knauff Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Oscar Højlund Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Michy Batshuayi Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Aurèle Amenda Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
Union Berlin
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Janik Haberer MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.47 | 0.64 |
| Andrej Ilic FW | 90 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| Leopold Querfeld DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Rani Khedira MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Frederik Rönnow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Diogo Leite DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Derrick Köhn DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danilho Doekhi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oliver Burke AMC | 86 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1.91 | 0.00 | 1.91 |
| Christopher Trimmel DMR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1.03 |
| Ilyas Ansah AMC | 77 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.91 |
| Aljoscha Kemlein Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.67 |
| Tim Skarke Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Woo-Yeong Jeong Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Andras Schafer Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |