Ekibastuz v Khan Tengri — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 9 October 2026 · KAZ-First League · 2627
KAZ-First League
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 2-1 9.6%
- 1-0 8.2%
- 1-1 7.8%
- 2-0 7.4%
- 3-1 6.8%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 66.3% | Under 2.5 | 33.7% |
| BTTS yes | 62.6% | BTTS no | 37.4% |
| Ekibastuz 1+ | 88.1% | Ekibastuz 2+ | 62.7% |
| Khan Tengri 1+ | 72.4% | Khan Tengri 2+ | 36.9% |
Expected goals 2.13 – 1.29. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Ekibastuz have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Khan Tengri have allowed 1.35.
- At home Ekibastuz average 1.35 xG a match.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 20/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Ekibastuz have only 0 matches on record.
- Khan Tengri have only 0 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Ekibastuz have an estimated 57.7% win probability, against 23.9% for Khan Tengri and 18.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.12 for Ekibastuz and 1.29 for Khan Tengri.
Why Ekibastuz
Ekibastuz have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Khan Tengri have allowed 1.35. At home Ekibastuz average 1.35 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 18.3%.
Why Khan Tengri can win
Khan Tengri have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Ekibastuz have allowed 1.35. Away from home Khan Tengri average 1.35 xG a match.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Ekibastuz, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Khan Tengri, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Ekibastuz: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Khan Tengri: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-10 15:23 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-10 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·
Ekibastuz are the model's most likely outcome at 57.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.6%. Confidence 22/100, data quality 20/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 2.13–1.29 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 2.27–1.30 | 2-1 9% | 69% | 64% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.