Ekibastuz v Tobol-M — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 11 September 2026 · KAZ-First League · 2627

KAZ-First League results-only Prediction generated 9 Sep 2026, 09:54 UTC

Ekibastuz

11:00 UTC

Tobol-M

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 10 Sep, 11:32 · 23h before kick-off

Ekibastuz win

53.2%

model 53.0%

Draw

18.6%

model 17.7%

Tobol-M win

28.2%

model 29.4%

531928

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (4,549 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-1 7.8%
2-2 7.0%
3-1 6.3%
1-2 5.8%
1-1 5.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	78.8%	Under 2.5	21.2%
BTTS yes	74.8%	BTTS no	25.2%
Ekibastuz 1+	91.0%	Ekibastuz 2+	69.3%
Tobol-M 1+	83.1%	Tobol-M 2+	53.0%

Expected goals 2.41 – 1.78. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

26/100

Data quality

30/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Over 4 (void on exactly 4)

Over/Under (whole line) · usually 28%

52.0% fair odds 1.92

strong signal · 7148 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Tobol-M under 1.5 in 1st half

Away goals O/U 1HT

83.3% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 363 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Ekibastuz have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Tobol-M have allowed 1.35.
At home Ekibastuz average 1.35 xG a match.

Risk factors

Data quality is 30/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
Ekibastuz have only 0 matches on record.
Tobol-M have only 0 matches on record.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Ekibastuz have an estimated 53.2% win probability, against 28.2% for Tobol-M and 18.6% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.41 for Ekibastuz and 1.78 for Tobol-M.

Why Ekibastuz

Ekibastuz have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Tobol-M have allowed 1.35. At home Ekibastuz average 1.35 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 18.6%.

Why Tobol-M can win

Tobol-M have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Ekibastuz have allowed 1.35. Away from home Tobol-M average 1.35 xG a match.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Ekibastuz, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Tobol-M, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Ekibastuz: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Tobol-M: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-10 15:23 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-10 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

Ekibastuz are the model's most likely outcome at 53.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 7.8%. Confidence 26/100, data quality 30/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	531829	2.41–1.78	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	561628	2.99–2.14	2-2 6%	89%	83%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz to win	56.3%	53.6%	47.7%	1.12×	1.87
Tobol-M to win	27.7%	27.7%	37.6%	0.74×	3.61
Draw	16.0%	19.4%	15.2%	1.28×	5.16

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz & both teams score	44.5%	39.1%	21.1%	1.85×	2.56
Tobol-M & both teams score	22.7%	21.8%	19.0%	1.15×	4.60
Draw & both teams score	16.0%	18.0%	12.7%	1.42×	5.55
Ekibastuz & not both score	11.7%	13.2%	27.0%	0.49×	7.55
Tobol-M & not both score	5.0%	4.9%	19.0%	0.26×	20.25
Draw & not both score	0.1%	4.9%	3.0%	1.66×	20.38

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz & over 1.5	54.0%	48.8%	38.8%	1.26×	2.05
Ekibastuz & over 2.5	51.3%	48.8%	35.0%	1.39×	2.05
Ekibastuz & over 3.5	42.9%	40.0%	24.5%	1.64×	2.50
Tobol-M & over 1.5	25.9%	25.9%	31.2%	0.83×	3.86
Tobol-M & over 2.5	24.6%	21.6%	26.2%	0.83×	4.63
Tobol-M & over 3.5	19.5%	18.0%	13.9%	1.29×	5.57
Draw & over 1.5	16.0%	18.0%	12.7%	1.42×	5.57
Ekibastuz & under 3.5	13.3%	12.9%	23.6%	0.54×	7.77
Draw & over 2.5	12.6%	12.9%	5.1%	2.54×	7.77
Draw & over 3.5	12.6%	12.9%	5.1%	2.54×	7.77
Tobol-M & under 3.5	8.2%	8.0%	24.1%	0.33×	12.56
Ekibastuz & under 2.5	5.0%	4.9%	13.1%	0.37×	20.52
Draw & under 2.5	3.4%	4.9%	10.5%	0.46×	20.53
Draw & under 3.5	3.4%	4.9%	10.5%	0.46×	20.53
Tobol-M & under 2.5	3.1%	4.9%	11.8%	0.41×	20.53
Ekibastuz & under 1.5	2.3%	4.9%	9.3%	0.52×	20.54
Tobol-M & under 1.5	1.8%	4.9%	6.8%	0.72×	20.54
Draw & under 1.5	0.1%	4.9%	3.0%	1.65×	20.55

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz (1UP)	76.0%	78.6%	—	—	1.27
Tobol-M (1UP)	54.5%	52.9%	—	—	1.89

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz (2UP)	56.3%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Tobol-M (2UP)	27.7%	24.8%	—	—	4.03

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz to win 2nd half	47.4%	45.4%	—	—	2.20
Tobol-M to win 2nd half	29.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.78
2nd half drawn	23.5%	23.1%	—	—	4.32

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tobol-M over 0.5 in 2nd half	72.2%	75.2%	—	—	1.33
Tobol-M under 1.5 in 2nd half	63.4%	59.1%	—	—	1.69
Tobol-M over 1.5 in 2nd half	36.6%	40.9%	—	—	2.44
Tobol-M under 0.5 in 2nd half	27.8%	24.8%	—	—	4.03

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz over 0.5 in 2nd half	81.7%	82.4%	—	—	1.21
Ekibastuz over 1.5 in 2nd half	50.6%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Ekibastuz under 1.5 in 2nd half	49.4%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Ekibastuz under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.3%	17.6%	—	—	5.69

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tobol-M (+2.5)	77.7%	78.3%	79.7%	0.98×	1.28
Ekibastuz (+0.5)	72.3%	73.7%	62.4%	1.18×	1.36
Tobol-M (+1.5)	62.3%	63.0%	68.4%	0.92×	1.59
Ekibastuz (-0.5)	56.3%	56.9%	47.7%	1.19×	1.76
Tobol-M (+0.5)	43.8%	43.1%	52.3%	0.82×	2.32
Ekibastuz (-1.5)	37.7%	37.0%	31.6%	1.17×	2.71
Tobol-M (-0.5)	27.7%	26.3%	37.6%	0.70×	3.80
Ekibastuz (-2.5)	22.3%	21.7%	20.3%	1.07×	4.61

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tobol-M to concede	94.9%	91.2%	78.5%	1.16×	1.10
Tobol-M clean sheet	5.1%	8.8%	21.5%	0.41×	11.34

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tobol-M to concede in 1st half	72.3%	77.6%	—	—	1.29
Tobol-M clean sheet in 1st half	27.7%	22.4%	—	—	4.47

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tobol-M to concede in 2nd half	81.7%	77.9%	—	—	1.28
Tobol-M clean sheet in 2nd half	18.3%	22.1%	—	—	4.53

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tobol-M over 0.5 goals	88.2%	87.9%	70.5%	1.25×	1.14
Tobol-M under 3.5 goals	83.2%	81.3%	90.3%	0.90×	1.23
Tobol-M under 2.5 goals	64.0%	63.5%	78.9%	0.80×	1.58
Tobol-M over 1.5 goals	62.9%	63.5%	39.7%	1.60×	1.58
Tobol-M under 1.5 goals	37.1%	36.5%	60.3%	0.61×	2.74
Tobol-M over 2.5 goals	36.0%	36.5%	21.1%	1.73×	2.74
Tobol-M over 3.5 goals	16.8%	18.7%	9.7%	1.93×	5.33
Tobol-M under 0.5 goals	11.8%	12.1%	29.5%	0.41×	8.26

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tobol-M under 1.5 in 1st half	78.9%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Tobol-M over 0.5 in 1st half	57.4%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Tobol-M under 0.5 in 1st half	42.6%	37.5%	—	—	2.67
Tobol-M over 1.5 in 1st half	21.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tobol-M scores more in 2nd half	46.4%	48.3%	—	—	2.07
Tobol-M scores equally in both	28.8%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Tobol-M scores more in 1st half	24.8%	22.5%	—	—	4.45

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz (away no bet)	77.8%	74.0%	75.8%	0.98×	1.35
Draw (away no bet)	22.2%	26.0%	24.2%	1.07×	3.85

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tobol-M even goals	50.7%	52.8%	54.0%	0.98×	1.89
Tobol-M odd goals	49.3%	47.2%	46.0%	1.03×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves over 1.5 goals	50.2%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
Not both halves over 1.5	49.8%	46.6%	—	—	2.15

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	92.3%	93.4%	—	—	1.07
Both halves under 1.5 goals	7.7%	6.6%	—	—	15.17

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	85.5%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Ekibastuz to score 2+ in a row	66.6%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
Either team to score 3+ in a row	47.8%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
Tobol-M to score 2+ in a row	44.2%	38.4%	—	—	2.61
Ekibastuz to score 3+ in a row	35.0%	29.2%	—	—	3.43
Tobol-M to score 3+ in a row	15.8%	16.3%	—	—	6.15

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	23.4%	20.1%	12.2%	1.65×	4.97
2-1	5.7%	7.4%	5.5%	1.35×	13.54
2-2	6.1%	7.4%	3.0%	2.50×	13.54
3-1	5.7%	7.4%	7.6%	0.97×	13.54
3-2	6.1%	7.4%	1.3%	5.84×	13.54
0-0	0.1%	1.7%	3.0%	0.59×	57.58
0-1	1.8%	1.7%	6.8%	0.26×	57.57
0-2	1.4%	1.7%	5.5%	0.32×	57.57
0-3	1.0%	1.7%	4.2%	0.41×	57.57
0-4	0.5%	1.7%	3.0%	0.59×	57.58
1-0	2.3%	1.7%	9.3%	0.19×	57.57
1-1	3.3%	1.7%	8.0%	0.22×	57.56
1-2	4.1%	1.7%	8.9%	0.20×	57.56
1-3	2.9%	1.7%	3.4%	0.51×	57.57
1-4	1.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.06×	57.57
2-0	2.7%	1.7%	4.2%	0.41×	57.57
2-3	4.3%	1.7%	2.1%	0.82×	57.56
2-4	2.3%	1.7%	1.3%	1.37×	57.57
3-0	2.7%	1.7%	5.9%	0.29×	57.57
3-3	4.3%	1.7%	2.1%	0.82×	57.56
3-4	2.3%	1.7%	0.8%	2.06×	57.57
4-0	2.0%	1.7%	5.5%	0.32×	57.57
4-1	4.2%	1.7%	3.0%	0.59×	57.56
4-2	4.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.06×	57.56
4-3	3.2%	1.7%	1.7%	1.03×	57.56
4-4	1.7%	1.7%	0.4%	4.12×	57.57

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz (2nd half DNB)	62.0%	61.2%	—	—	1.63
Tobol-M (2nd half DNB)	38.0%	38.8%	—	—	2.58

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz leading at HT (DNB)	65.2%	73.0%	—	—	1.37
Tobol-M leading at HT (DNB)	34.8%	27.0%	—	—	3.71

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz or Tobol-M (12)	84.0%	80.6%	84.8%	0.95×	1.24
Ekibastuz or draw (1X)	72.3%	72.3%	62.4%	1.16×	1.38
Tobol-M or draw (X2)	43.8%	46.4%	52.3%	0.89×	2.15

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz or draw at HT	75.1%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Ekibastuz or Tobol-M at HT	71.4%	74.2%	—	—	1.35
Tobol-M or draw at HT	53.4%	47.7%	—	—	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz or draw (1UP)	76.0%	83.8%	—	—	1.19
Tobol-M or draw (1UP)	54.5%	59.3%	—	—	1.69

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz or Tobol-M in 2nd half	76.5%	76.9%	—	—	1.30
Ekibastuz or draw in 2nd half	70.9%	73.5%	—	—	1.36
Tobol-M or draw in 2nd half	52.6%	54.6%	—	—	1.83

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half drawn	54.0%	50.0%	—	—	2.00
A half drawn	46.0%	50.0%	—	—	2.00

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz (DNB)	67.0%	66.8%	55.9%	1.19×	1.50
Tobol-M (DNB)	33.0%	33.2%	44.1%	0.75×	3.01

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz to score first	58.2%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Tobol-M to score first	41.7%	41.8%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	0.1%	4.2%	—	—	23.96

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	83.2%	69.3%	51.9%	1.34×	1.44
Not both teams to score	16.8%	30.7%	48.1%	0.64×	3.26

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	79.9%	68.2%	44.3%	1.54×	1.47
Not both score & over 2.5	8.6%	8.4%	21.5%	0.39×	11.94
Not both score & under 2.5	8.2%	8.4%	27.0%	0.31×	11.94
Both score & under 2.5	3.3%	4.7%	8.0%	0.59×	21.26

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score 2+	50.2%	50.2%	13.9%	3.60×	1.99
Not both teams to score 2+	49.8%	49.8%	86.1%	0.58×	2.01

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score in 2nd half	58.8%	66.6%	—	—	1.50
Not both to score in 2nd half	41.2%	33.4%	—	—	2.99

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score 2nd half only	34.3%	27.2%	—	—	3.68
Both score in both halves	24.5%	20.9%	—	—	4.78
Neither half both score	24.2%	20.9%	—	—	4.78
Both score 1st half only	16.9%	15.6%	—	—	6.40

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	58.6%	58.6%	—	—	1.71
Both teams to score by HT	41.4%	41.4%	—	—	2.41

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	83.5%	81.7%	—	—	1.22
A half without a goal	16.5%	18.3%	—	—	5.46

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	49.7%	46.9%	32.9%	1.43×	2.13
7+ goals	25.4%	26.9%	10.1%	2.66×	3.71
2-3 goals	20.8%	23.0%	39.7%	0.58×	4.34
0-1 goals	4.2%	1.9%	18.1%	0.10×	53.72

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tobol-M to score 3+	36.0%	35.8%	21.1%	1.70×	2.80
Tobol-M to score exactly 2	27.0%	27.6%	19.0%	1.45×	3.62
Tobol-M to score exactly 1	25.3%	27.6%	31.2%	0.88×	3.63
Tobol-M to score exactly 0	11.8%	13.0%	29.5%	0.44×	7.70

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz to score 3+	57.2%	43.9%	32.9%	1.33×	2.28
Ekibastuz to score exactly 2	22.6%	23.4%	16.0%	1.46×	4.28
Ekibastuz to score exactly 1	15.1%	19.2%	30.4%	0.63×	5.22
Ekibastuz to score exactly 0	5.1%	10.5%	21.5%	0.49×	9.56

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz leading at HT	46.6%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Draw at HT	28.6%	25.8%	—	—	3.88
Tobol-M leading at HT	24.9%	20.1%	—	—	4.97

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz -1: 2	43.8%	43.0%	—	—	2.33
Ekibastuz -1: 1	37.7%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
Ekibastuz -1: X	18.5%	17.3%	—	—	5.79

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tobol-M (0:1)	43.8%	42.6%	52.3%	0.81×	2.35
Ekibastuz (0:1)	37.7%	37.3%	31.6%	1.18×	2.68
Draw (0:1)	18.5%	17.7%	16.5%	1.08×	5.64

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tobol-M (0:2)	62.3%	67.5%	68.4%	0.99×	1.48
Ekibastuz (0:2)	22.3%	20.0%	20.3%	0.99×	5.00
Draw (0:2)	15.4%	15.0%	11.8%	1.27×	6.67

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tobol-M (0:3)	77.7%	80.4%	79.7%	1.01×	1.24
Ekibastuz (0:3)	11.5%	10.0%	11.0%	0.92×	9.96
Draw (0:3)	10.8%	10.0%	9.7%	1.03×	9.97

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tobol-M (0:4)	88.5%	91.7%	89.0%	1.03×	1.09
Draw (0:4)	6.3%	4.8%	6.3%	0.76×	20.72
Ekibastuz (0:4)	5.2%	4.8%	5.1%	0.95×	20.80

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz (1:0)	72.3%	72.6%	62.4%	1.16×	1.38
Tobol-M (1:0)	14.3%	12.8%	20.7%	0.62×	7.84
Draw (1:0)	13.4%	12.8%	17.3%	0.74×	7.84

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz (2:0)	85.7%	88.2%	79.3%	1.11×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	7.9%	6.6%	9.7%	0.68×	15.23
Tobol-M (2:0)	6.4%	6.6%	11.4%	0.58×	15.24

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	56.1%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
1st half highest scoring	27.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	16.3%	18.4%	—	—	5.44

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz to concede	88.2%	86.4%	70.5%	1.23×	1.16
Ekibastuz clean sheet	11.8%	13.6%	29.5%	0.46×	7.36

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz to concede in 1st half	57.4%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Ekibastuz clean sheet in 1st half	42.6%	37.5%	—	—	2.67

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz to concede in 2nd half	72.2%	73.0%	—	—	1.37
Ekibastuz clean sheet in 2nd half	27.8%	27.0%	—	—	3.70

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz over 0.5 goals	94.9%	92.1%	78.5%	1.17×	1.09
Ekibastuz over 1.5 goals	79.8%	77.4%	48.5%	1.60×	1.29
Ekibastuz under 3.5 goals	65.2%	67.8%	83.1%	0.82×	1.47
Ekibastuz over 2.5 goals	57.2%	58.6%	32.9%	1.78×	1.71
Ekibastuz under 2.5 goals	42.8%	41.4%	67.1%	0.62×	2.41
Ekibastuz over 3.5 goals	34.8%	32.2%	16.9%	1.90×	3.11
Ekibastuz under 1.5 goals	20.2%	22.6%	51.5%	0.44×	4.43
Ekibastuz under 0.5 goals	5.1%	7.9%	21.5%	0.37×	12.70

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz over 0.5 in 1st half	72.3%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Ekibastuz under 1.5 in 1st half	63.3%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
Ekibastuz over 1.5 in 1st half	36.7%	35.3%	—	—	2.83
Ekibastuz under 0.5 in 1st half	27.7%	20.2%	—	—	4.96

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz scores more in 2nd half	47.2%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Ekibastuz scores more in 1st half	29.0%	28.1%	—	—	3.57
Ekibastuz scores equally in both	23.9%	21.6%	—	—	4.63

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tobol-M (home no bet)	63.3%	60.0%	71.2%	0.84×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	36.7%	40.0%	28.8%	1.39×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz even goals	50.1%	50.4%	48.5%	1.04×	1.98
Ekibastuz odd goals	49.9%	49.6%	51.5%	0.96×	2.02

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other HT score	18.7%	18.7%	—	—	5.36
HT 1-0	15.2%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
HT 1-1	12.8%	10.9%	—	—	9.15
HT 0-0	11.7%	10.9%	—	—	9.16
HT 0-1	10.2%	10.9%	—	—	9.17
HT 2-0	9.7%	7.2%	—	—	13.99
HT 2-1	8.3%	7.1%	—	—	14.01
HT 1-2	5.5%	7.1%	—	—	14.05
HT 0-2	4.3%	2.3%	—	—	43.39
HT 2-2	3.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.44

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz at HT / Ekibastuz at FT	37.5%	41.0%	—	—	2.44
Tobol-M at HT / Tobol-M at FT	15.4%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Draw at HT / Ekibastuz at FT	13.9%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Tobol-M at FT	8.6%	6.0%	—	—	16.63
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	6.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.71
Ekibastuz at HT / Draw at FT	5.4%	6.0%	—	—	16.73
Tobol-M at HT / Ekibastuz at FT	4.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.73
Tobol-M at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.74
Ekibastuz at HT / Tobol-M at FT	3.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.78

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz to score last	58.2%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Tobol-M to score last	41.7%	40.0%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	0.1%	4.2%	—	—	23.96

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	99.9%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Ekibastuz to lead by 1 at any time	76.0%	78.0%	—	—	1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	74.1%	74.4%	—	—	1.35
Tobol-M to lead by 1 at any time	54.5%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Ekibastuz to lead by 2 at any time	50.3%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	39.9%	34.9%	—	—	2.86
Ekibastuz to lead by 3 at any time	29.2%	25.5%	—	—	3.92
Tobol-M to lead by 2 at any time	25.8%	25.4%	—	—	3.93
Tobol-M to lead by 3 at any time	10.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-6 goals	70.5%	72.2%	72.2%	1.00×	1.38
3-6 goals	63.1%	63.1%	55.7%	1.13×	1.58
1-5 goals	59.6%	59.3%	81.4%	0.73×	1.69
2-5 goals	55.5%	59.2%	66.2%	0.89×	1.69
4-6 goals	49.7%	48.5%	32.9%	1.47×	2.06
3-5 goals	48.1%	48.5%	49.8%	0.97×	2.06
1-4 goals	42.0%	43.6%	75.1%	0.58×	2.29
2-4 goals	37.9%	39.3%	59.9%	0.66×	2.55
4-5 goals	34.7%	35.3%	27.0%	1.31×	2.83
5-6 goals	32.6%	35.3%	12.7%	2.79×	2.83
3-4 goals	30.6%	35.3%	43.5%	0.81×	2.83
7+ goals	25.4%	30.6%	10.1%	3.02×	3.27
1-3 goals	24.8%	24.8%	54.9%	0.45×	4.03
2-3 goals	20.8%	24.8%	39.7%	0.63×	4.03
1-2 goals	11.4%	15.0%	32.1%	0.47×	6.65

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz never behind	45.4%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
Tobol-M never behind	23.9%	24.5%	—	—	4.09

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.0%	50.9%	46.8%	1.09×	1.96
Odd number of goals	51.0%	49.1%	53.2%	0.92×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	50.5%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	49.5%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd goals in 2nd half	50.2%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Even goals in 2nd half	49.8%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	99.9%	95.4%	97.0%	0.98×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	95.8%	95.4%	81.9%	1.17×	1.05
Over 2.5 goals	88.5%	87.4%	65.4%	1.34×	1.14
Over 3.5 goals	75.1%	77.2%	42.6%	1.81×	1.30
Under 5.5 goals	59.7%	58.5%	84.0%	0.70×	1.71
Over 4.5 goals	57.9%	58.5%	22.4%	2.61×	1.71
Under 4.5 goals	42.1%	41.5%	77.6%	0.54×	2.41
Over 5.5 goals	40.4%	41.5%	16.0%	2.59×	2.41
Under 3.5 goals	24.9%	22.8%	57.4%	0.40×	4.39
Under 2.5 goals	11.5%	12.6%	34.6%	0.36×	7.96
Under 1.5 goals	4.2%	4.6%	18.1%	0.25×	21.71
Under 0.5 goals	0.1%	4.6%	3.0%	1.56×	21.77

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	95.5%	97.1%	78.3%	1.24×	1.03
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	86.7%	86.6%	55.2%	1.57×	1.16
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	70.2%	72.2%	89.2%	0.81×	1.38
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	69.9%	67.6%	28.0%	2.41×	1.48
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	51.1%	52.4%	82.9%	0.63×	1.91
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	49.0%	47.6%	17.1%	2.78×	2.10
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	30.1%	32.4%	72.0%	0.45×	3.09
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	29.8%	27.8%	10.8%	2.58×	3.60
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	13.3%	13.4%	44.8%	0.30×	7.45
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	4.5%	2.9%	21.7%	0.13×	35.03

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	88.3%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Under 2.5 in 1st half	64.0%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	62.9%	63.5%	—	—	1.57
Under 1.5 in 1st half	37.1%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Over 2.5 in 1st half	36.0%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Under 0.5 in 1st half	11.7%	11.0%	—	—	9.11

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	95.1%	95.2%	—	—	1.05
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	79.6%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	57.2%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	42.8%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	20.4%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	4.9%	4.8%	—	—	20.89

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz to score in both halves	59.1%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Tobol-M not to score in both halves	58.5%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Tobol-M to score in both halves	41.5%	42.3%	—	—	2.36
Ekibastuz not to score in both halves	40.9%	42.3%	—	—	2.37

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	83.2%	78.6%	51.9%	1.51×	1.27
Only Ekibastuz scores	11.7%	11.1%	27.0%	0.41×	9.03
Only Tobol-M scores	5.0%	4.7%	19.0%	0.25×	21.47
Neither team scores	0.1%	4.6%	3.0%	1.56×	21.66

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
6 or more goals	40.4%	37.8%	16.0%	2.36×	2.65
Exactly 5 goals	17.6%	17.6%	6.8%	2.60×	5.70
Exactly 4 goals	17.2%	17.6%	20.7%	0.85×	5.70
Exactly 3 goals	13.4%	12.0%	23.2%	0.52×	8.30
Exactly 2 goals	7.4%	7.8%	16.9%	0.46×	12.83
Exactly 1 goals	4.1%	4.5%	15.6%	0.29×	22.19
Exactly 0 goals	0.1%	4.5%	3.0%	1.52×	22.25

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
3+ goals in 1st half	36.0%	37.1%	—	—	2.70
2 goals in 1st half	26.9%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
1 goal in 1st half	25.4%	28.5%	—	—	3.52
No goals in 1st half	11.7%	10.9%	—	—	9.20

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	79.6%	77.9%	—	—	1.28
1 goal in 2nd half	15.5%	17.2%	—	—	5.83
No goals in 2nd half	4.9%	4.8%	—	—	20.89

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tobol-M not to win both halves	92.8%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Ekibastuz not to win both halves	78.1%	75.3%	—	—	1.33
Ekibastuz to win both halves	21.9%	24.7%	—	—	4.06
Tobol-M to win both halves	7.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.61

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz to win either half	72.0%	72.9%	—	—	1.37
Tobol-M to win neither half	53.2%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Tobol-M to win either half	46.8%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Ekibastuz to win neither half	28.0%	27.1%	—	—	3.68

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tobol-M not to win to nil	95.0%	96.1%	81.0%	1.19×	1.04
Ekibastuz not to win to nil	88.3%	87.9%	73.0%	1.20×	1.14
Ekibastuz to win to nil	11.7%	12.1%	27.0%	0.45×	8.29
Tobol-M to win to nil	5.0%	3.9%	19.0%	0.21×	25.53

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz by 3+	22.3%	24.2%	20.3%	1.19×	4.14
Ekibastuz by 1	18.5%	16.9%	16.5%	1.03×	5.92
Draw	16.0%	16.9%	15.2%	1.11×	5.92
Ekibastuz by 2	15.4%	16.9%	11.8%	1.43×	5.92
Tobol-M by 1	13.4%	11.7%	17.3%	0.68×	8.52
Tobol-M by 2	7.9%	7.3%	9.7%	0.75×	13.74
Tobol-M by 3+	6.4%	7.3%	11.4%	0.64×	13.74