Elche v Atletico Madrid — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 29 November 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627

La Liga xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Elche

16:00 UTC

Atletico Madrid

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 869h before kick-off

Elche win

26.8%

model 27.4%

Draw

22.2%

model 22.3%

Atletico Madrid win

51.0%

model 50.4%

272251

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 9.9%
1-2 9.4%
0-1 7.3%
0-2 6.9%
2-1 6.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	63.4%	Under 2.5	36.6%
BTTS yes	63.3%	BTTS no	36.7%
Elche 1+	74.3%	Elche 2+	39.4%
Atletico Madrid 1+	85.2%	Atletico Madrid 2+	56.9%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.91. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

90/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

95%

★ Best pick

Atletico Madrid (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 28%

52.1% fair odds 1.92

strong signal · 1133 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 90%

84.0% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 388 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Atletico Madrid carry the stronger rating, 1702 Elo against 1500.
Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Atletico Madrid have an estimated 51.0% win probability, against 26.8% for Elche and 22.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.36 for Elche and 1.91 for Atletico Madrid.

Why Elche

At home Elche average 1.30 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.2%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Atletico Madrid can win

Atletico Madrid carry the stronger rating, 1702 Elo against 1500. Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

Elche's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Alvaro Rodríguez (0.42), Fernando Niño (0.41), André Silva (0.36). Atletico Madrid's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Jonathan Christian David (0.53), Alexander Sørloth (0.42), Julián Álvarez (0.42).

Availability

2 of Elche's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Elche's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Atletico Madrid's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Atletico Madrid's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Elche: 46% possession, 9.0 shots a match, 17.8 faced, 0.14 xG a match from set pieces. Atletico Madrid: 63% possession, 19.8 shots a match, 7.4 faced, 0.29 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Atletico Madrid are the model's most likely outcome at 51.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 9.9%. Confidence 90/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Elche have scored 12 from 11.3 expected and conceded 18 from 19.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

DDLLLDLWDD last 10 scored 12 from 11.3 xG conceded 18 from 19.1 xG

Atletico Madrid have scored 20 from 19.1 expected and conceded 13 from 12.8 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LWDWLWWWWW last 10 scored 20 from 19.1 xG conceded 13 from 12.8 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	272250	1.36–1.91	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	322345	1.44–1.76	1-1 10%	62%	63%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid to win	41.6%	42.9%	28.3%	1.52×	2.33
Elche to win	35.4%	36.3%	46.3%	0.78×	2.75
Draw	23.0%	24.4%	25.5%	0.96×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid & both teams score	24.6%	21.8%	14.1%	1.55×	4.58
Elche & both teams score	21.2%	21.8%	21.6%	1.01×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	19.3%	18.0%	20.3%	0.88×	5.56
Atletico Madrid & not both score	17.0%	18.0%	14.3%	1.25×	5.57
Elche & not both score	14.2%	13.3%	24.8%	0.54×	7.53
Draw & not both score	3.7%	4.9%	5.3%	0.92×	20.59

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid & over 1.5	35.2%	34.9%	21.4%	1.63×	2.87
Atletico Madrid & over 2.5	29.7%	26.1%	17.0%	1.53×	3.84
Elche & over 1.5	29.6%	26.1%	33.8%	0.77×	3.84
Elche & over 2.5	25.0%	21.6%	28.0%	0.77×	4.63
Atletico Madrid & under 3.5	23.7%	21.6%	21.3%	1.02×	4.63
Elche & under 3.5	20.8%	21.6%	32.3%	0.67×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.3%	18.0%	20.3%	0.89×	5.56
Atletico Madrid & over 3.5	17.9%	18.0%	7.2%	2.51×	5.56
Elche & over 3.5	14.7%	12.8%	14.1%	0.91×	7.79
Draw & under 2.5	13.8%	12.8%	20.4%	0.63×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	13.8%	12.8%	20.4%	0.63×	7.79
Atletico Madrid & under 2.5	11.9%	12.8%	11.4%	1.13×	7.79
Elche & under 2.5	10.4%	12.8%	18.4%	0.70×	7.79
Draw & over 2.5	9.2%	7.9%	5.2%	1.53×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	9.2%	7.9%	5.2%	1.53×	12.63
Atletico Madrid & under 1.5	6.4%	7.9%	7.1%	1.12×	12.63
Elche & under 1.5	5.8%	7.9%	12.6%	0.63×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	3.7%	4.8%	5.3%	0.91×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid (1UP)	60.4%	62.7%	47.1%	1.33×	1.60
Elche (1UP)	55.2%	57.9%	62.7%	0.92×	1.73

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid (2UP)	41.6%	47.1%	29.9%	1.57×	2.13
Elche (2UP)	35.4%	37.3%	48.1%	0.78×	2.68

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid to win 2nd half	34.9%	34.4%	27.6%	1.25×	2.91
Elche to win 2nd half	33.1%	34.3%	39.6%	0.87×	2.91
2nd half drawn	32.0%	34.3%	33.0%	1.04×	2.91

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid under 1.5 in 2nd half	75.0%	78.8%	84.2%	0.94×	1.27
Atletico Madrid over 0.5 in 2nd half	61.7%	60.2%	52.1%	1.16×	1.66
Atletico Madrid under 0.5 in 2nd half	38.3%	39.8%	47.9%	0.83×	2.51
Atletico Madrid over 1.5 in 2nd half	25.0%	21.2%	15.8%	1.35×	4.71

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche under 1.5 in 2nd half	76.3%	75.4%	79.6%	0.95×	1.33
Elche over 0.5 in 2nd half	60.4%	63.2%	59.1%	1.07×	1.58
Elche under 0.5 in 2nd half	39.6%	36.8%	40.9%	0.90×	2.72
Elche over 1.5 in 2nd half	23.7%	24.6%	20.4%	1.21×	4.07

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid (+2.5)	93.2%	92.1%	89.8%	1.03×	1.09
Atletico Madrid (+1.5)	82.8%	82.5%	79.3%	1.04×	1.21
Atletico Madrid (+0.5)	64.6%	63.0%	53.7%	1.17×	1.59
Elche (+0.5)	58.4%	57.0%	71.7%	0.80×	1.75
Atletico Madrid (-0.5)	41.6%	43.0%	28.3%	1.52×	2.33
Elche (-0.5)	35.4%	37.0%	46.3%	0.80×	2.70
Elche (-1.5)	17.2%	17.5%	20.7%	0.84×	5.73
Elche (-2.5)	6.8%	7.9%	10.2%	0.77×	12.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid to concede	79.3%	78.8%	80.5%	0.98×	1.27
Atletico Madrid clean sheet	20.7%	21.2%	19.5%	1.09×	4.72

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid clean sheet in 1st half	52.4%	50.7%	52.3%	0.97×	1.97
Atletico Madrid to concede in 1st half	47.6%	49.3%	47.7%	1.03×	2.03

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid to concede in 2nd half	60.4%	61.7%	59.1%	1.04×	1.62
Atletico Madrid clean sheet in 2nd half	39.6%	38.3%	40.9%	0.94×	2.61

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid over 2.5 corners	81.0%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Atletico Madrid under 6.5 corners	75.0%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Atletico Madrid over 3.5 corners	66.5%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Atletico Madrid under 5.5 corners	63.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Atletico Madrid over 4.5 corners	51.0%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Atletico Madrid under 4.5 corners	49.0%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Atletico Madrid over 5.5 corners	36.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Atletico Madrid under 3.5 corners	33.5%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Atletico Madrid over 6.5 corners	25.0%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Atletico Madrid under 2.5 corners	19.0%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid under 3.5 goals	90.4%	92.3%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
Atletico Madrid over 0.5 goals	82.1%	81.5%	70.0%	1.16×	1.23
Atletico Madrid under 2.5 goals	75.2%	76.2%	89.4%	0.85×	1.31
Atletico Madrid over 1.5 goals	51.3%	53.5%	32.1%	1.67×	1.87
Atletico Madrid under 1.5 goals	48.7%	46.5%	67.9%	0.68×	2.15
Atletico Madrid over 2.5 goals	24.8%	23.8%	10.6%	2.25×	4.21
Atletico Madrid under 0.5 goals	17.9%	18.5%	30.0%	0.62×	5.39
Atletico Madrid over 3.5 goals	9.6%	7.7%	2.9%	2.61×	13.03

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid under 1.5 in 1st half	82.4%	83.1%	92.8%	0.90×	1.20
Atletico Madrid over 0.5 in 1st half	53.2%	55.7%	36.9%	1.51×	1.80
Atletico Madrid under 0.5 in 1st half	46.8%	44.3%	63.1%	0.70×	2.26
Atletico Madrid over 1.5 in 1st half	17.6%	16.9%	7.2%	2.35×	5.93

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid scores more in 2nd half	38.8%	37.4%	37.6%	1.00×	2.67
Atletico Madrid scores equally in both	33.6%	33.5%	41.7%	0.80×	2.99
Atletico Madrid scores more in 1st half	27.6%	26.2%	20.8%	1.26×	3.81

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche (away no bet)	60.6%	61.9%	64.5%	0.96×	1.62
Draw (away no bet)	39.4%	38.1%	35.5%	1.07×	2.62

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid even goals	51.6%	52.6%	53.2%	0.99×	1.90
Atletico Madrid odd goals	48.4%	47.4%	46.8%	1.01×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	76.9%	81.1%	85.9%	0.95×	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	23.1%	18.9%	14.1%	1.33×	5.30

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	74.2%	67.5%	62.4%	1.08×	1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals	25.8%	32.5%	37.6%	0.86×	3.08

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	65.2%	62.2%	52.4%	1.19×	1.61
Atletico Madrid to score 2+ in a row	40.3%	38.6%	23.8%	1.62×	2.59
Elche to score 2+ in a row	35.3%	36.5%	34.5%	1.06×	2.74
Either team to score 3+ in a row	25.9%	25.1%	19.2%	1.31×	3.98
Atletico Madrid to score 3+ in a row	14.8%	12.1%	6.5%	1.87×	8.26
Elche to score 3+ in a row	11.7%	12.0%	13.2%	0.91×	8.32

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid corners (+3.5)	87.9%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Atletico Madrid corners (+2.5)	81.3%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Elche corners (+3.5)	79.4%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Atletico Madrid corners (+1.5)	72.7%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Elche corners (+2.5)	70.7%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Elche corners (+1.5)	60.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Atletico Madrid corners (-1.5)	39.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Atletico Madrid corners (-2.5)	29.3%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Elche corners (-1.5)	27.3%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Atletico Madrid corners (-3.5)	20.6%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Elche corners (-2.5)	18.7%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Elche corners (-3.5)	12.1%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	46.2%	41.8%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	29.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	24.4%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	82.5%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	75.6%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	67.1%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	65.0%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	57.1%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	53.8%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	46.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	42.9%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 7.5 corners	35.0%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	32.9%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	24.4%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	17.5%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.1%	11.5%	15.3%	0.75×	8.72
1-2	8.6%	7.4%	8.1%	0.91×	13.51
2-1	7.9%	7.4%	9.6%	0.77×	13.51
2-2	6.8%	7.4%	4.2%	1.75×	13.51
Any other score	5.2%	7.4%	3.4%	2.17×	13.51
0-1	6.4%	7.4%	7.1%	1.05×	13.51
0-2	5.5%	7.4%	4.5%	1.66×	13.51
1-0	5.8%	7.4%	12.6%	0.59×	13.51
1-3	5.0%	1.7%	2.1%	0.81×	58.29
3-0	2.4%	1.7%	4.5%	0.38×	58.31
3-1	4.1%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.30
3-2	3.6%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	58.30
3-3	2.0%	1.7%	1.1%	1.62×	58.31
3-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.4%	4.86×	58.31
4-0	0.9%	1.7%	1.6%	1.04×	58.31
4-1	1.6%	1.7%	2.1%	0.81×	58.31
4-2	1.4%	1.7%	1.3%	1.33×	58.31
4-3	0.8%	1.7%	0.7%	2.43×	58.31
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.1%	14.59×	58.32
0-0	3.7%	1.7%	5.3%	0.32×	58.30
0-3	3.1%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.30
0-4	1.4%	1.7%	0.8%	2.08×	58.31
1-4	2.1%	1.7%	0.5%	3.65×	58.31
2-0	4.6%	1.7%	6.0%	0.29×	58.29
2-3	3.9%	1.7%	2.4%	0.73×	58.30
2-4	1.7%	1.7%	0.6%	2.92×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid (2nd half DNB)	51.3%	52.7%	41.1%	1.28×	1.90
Elche (2nd half DNB)	48.7%	47.3%	58.9%	0.80×	2.11

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid leading at HT (DNB)	55.4%	56.9%	38.5%	1.48×	1.76
Elche leading at HT (DNB)	44.6%	43.1%	61.5%	0.70×	2.32

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche or Atletico Madrid (12)	77.0%	75.6%	74.5%	1.01×	1.32
Atletico Madrid or draw (X2)	64.6%	63.7%	53.7%	1.19×	1.57
Elche or draw (1X)	58.4%	57.1%	71.7%	0.80×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid or draw at HT	72.4%	74.9%	65.0%	1.15×	1.34
Elche or draw at HT	65.7%	67.1%	78.1%	0.86×	1.49
Elche or Atletico Madrid at HT	61.9%	61.4%	56.8%	1.08×	1.63

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid or draw (1UP)	64.6%	71.8%	60.3%	1.19×	1.39
Elche or draw (1UP)	58.4%	63.1%	78.0%	0.81×	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche or Atletico Madrid in 2nd half	68.0%	65.7%	67.0%	0.98×	1.52
Atletico Madrid or draw in 2nd half	66.9%	65.7%	60.4%	1.09×	1.52
Elche or draw in 2nd half	65.1%	65.6%	72.4%	0.91×	1.52

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	57.9%	58.4%	62.1%	0.94×	1.71
Neither half drawn	42.1%	41.6%	37.9%	1.10×	2.41

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid (DNB)	54.0%	51.0%	38.0%	1.34×	1.96
Elche (DNB)	46.0%	49.0%	62.0%	0.79×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid to score first	50.3%	53.2%	39.7%	1.34×	1.88
Elche to score first	46.0%	45.9%	55.1%	0.83×	2.18
No goal scored	3.7%	4.3%	5.3%	0.81×	23.35

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	65.1%	58.4%	55.8%	1.05×	1.71
Not both teams to score	34.9%	41.6%	44.2%	0.94×	2.40

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	55.0%	47.5%	40.7%	1.17×	2.10
Not both score & under 2.5	26.0%	33.3%	34.9%	0.95×	3.00
Both score & under 2.5	10.1%	12.4%	15.3%	0.81×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.9%	8.3%	9.4%	0.88×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	76.1%	79.6%	85.8%	0.93×	1.26
Both teams to score 2+	23.9%	20.4%	14.2%	1.43×	4.91

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	62.7%	65.5%	70.8%	0.93×	1.53
Both teams to score in 2nd half	37.3%	34.5%	29.2%	1.18×	2.90

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	46.8%	52.9%	59.7%	0.89×	1.89
Both score 2nd half only	27.8%	27.2%	23.7%	1.15×	3.68
Both score 1st half only	15.9%	14.9%	11.2%	1.33×	6.71
Both score in both halves	9.4%	6.9%	5.7%	1.21×	14.59

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	74.7%	79.7%	83.3%	0.96×	1.26
Both teams to score by HT	25.3%	20.3%	16.7%	1.21×	4.92

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	64.0%	59.8%	55.1%	1.08×	1.67
A half without a goal	36.0%	40.2%	44.9%	0.90×	2.49

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	42.3%	42.1%	49.2%	0.86×	2.37
4-6 goals	36.8%	35.1%	23.7%	1.48×	2.85
0-1 goals	16.0%	20.2%	24.7%	0.82×	4.95
7+ goals	5.0%	7.6%	2.6%	2.93×	13.19

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid to score exactly 1	30.8%	33.8%	38.1%	0.89×	2.96
Atletico Madrid to score exactly 2	26.5%	27.4%	21.6%	1.27×	3.65
Atletico Madrid to score 3+	24.8%	22.3%	10.6%	2.11×	4.48
Atletico Madrid to score exactly 0	17.9%	19.6%	30.0%	0.65×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche to score exactly 1	32.6%	32.6%	38.3%	0.85×	3.07
Elche to score exactly 2	25.7%	26.5%	22.7%	1.17×	3.77
Elche to score 3+	21.0%	23.3%	19.7%	1.18×	4.29
Elche to score exactly 0	20.7%	23.3%	19.5%	1.19×	4.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	38.1%	38.6%	43.2%	0.89×	2.59
Atletico Madrid leading at HT	34.3%	32.9%	21.9%	1.50×	3.04
Elche leading at HT	27.6%	25.1%	35.0%	0.72×	3.98

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid -1: 1	58.4%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Atletico Madrid -1: 2	21.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Atletico Madrid -1: X	19.9%	17.5%	—	—	5.70

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid (0:1)	64.6%	61.4%	53.7%	1.14×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	18.2%	17.8%	25.7%	0.69×	5.61
Elche (0:1)	17.2%	17.8%	20.7%	0.86×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid (0:2)	82.8%	82.9%	79.3%	1.05×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	10.4%	11.0%	10.6%	1.04×	9.11
Elche (0:2)	6.8%	7.7%	10.2%	0.75×	13.05

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid (0:3)	93.2%	92.7%	89.8%	1.03×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.6%	2.4%	7.2%	0.33×	42.01
Elche (0:3)	2.2%	2.4%	3.2%	0.75×	42.11

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid (0:4)	97.8%	98.1%	96.8%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.6%	1.2%	2.4%	0.52×	81.93
Elche (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	0.9%	1.30×	82.04

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche (1:0)	58.4%	58.4%	71.7%	0.81×	1.71
Atletico Madrid (1:0)	21.6%	21.7%	10.9%	1.98×	4.61
Draw (1:0)	19.9%	17.1%	17.5%	0.98×	5.84

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche (2:0)	78.4%	80.5%	89.1%	0.90×	1.24
Draw (2:0)	12.5%	10.3%	7.1%	1.46×	9.72
Atletico Madrid (2:0)	9.2%	6.4%	4.0%	1.60×	15.67

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.9%	48.8%	51.2%	0.95×	2.05
1st half highest scoring	28.7%	26.2%	25.8%	1.02×	3.81
Halves equal	22.4%	24.4%	23.1%	1.06×	4.09

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche to concede	82.1%	80.9%	70.0%	1.15×	1.24
Elche clean sheet	17.9%	19.1%	30.0%	0.64×	5.23

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche to concede in 1st half	53.2%	55.7%	36.9%	1.51×	1.80
Elche clean sheet in 1st half	46.8%	44.3%	63.1%	0.70×	2.26

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche to concede in 2nd half	61.7%	59.8%	52.1%	1.15×	1.67
Elche clean sheet in 2nd half	38.3%	40.2%	47.9%	0.84×	2.49

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche under 6.5 corners	82.7%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Elche over 2.5 corners	74.5%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Elche under 5.5 corners	72.5%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Elche under 4.5 corners	58.8%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Elche over 3.5 corners	57.6%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Elche under 3.5 corners	42.4%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Elche over 4.5 corners	41.2%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Elche over 5.5 corners	27.5%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Elche under 2.5 corners	25.5%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Elche over 6.5 corners	17.3%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche under 3.5 goals	92.5%	92.2%	92.4%	1.00×	1.08
Elche over 0.5 goals	79.3%	77.7%	80.5%	0.97×	1.29
Elche under 2.5 goals	79.0%	77.7%	80.3%	0.97×	1.29
Elche under 1.5 goals	53.4%	53.2%	57.7%	0.92×	1.88
Elche over 1.5 goals	46.6%	46.8%	42.3%	1.11×	2.14
Elche over 2.5 goals	21.0%	22.3%	19.7%	1.13×	4.49
Elche under 0.5 goals	20.7%	22.3%	19.5%	1.14×	4.49
Elche over 3.5 goals	7.5%	7.8%	7.6%	1.02×	12.88

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche under 1.5 in 1st half	86.2%	90.2%	85.9%	1.05×	1.11
Elche under 0.5 in 1st half	52.4%	50.5%	52.3%	0.97×	1.98
Elche over 0.5 in 1st half	47.6%	49.5%	47.7%	1.04×	2.02
Elche over 1.5 in 1st half	13.8%	9.8%	14.1%	0.69×	10.19

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche scores more in 2nd half	40.4%	42.2%	40.4%	1.04×	2.37
Elche scores equally in both	35.2%	37.7%	32.3%	1.17×	2.65
Elche scores more in 1st half	24.4%	21.3%	27.4%	0.78×	4.69

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid (home no bet)	64.4%	60.1%	52.6%	1.14×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	35.6%	39.9%	47.4%	0.84×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche even goals	52.2%	50.7%	47.5%	1.07×	1.97
Elche odd goals	47.8%	49.3%	52.5%	0.94×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	24.5%	24.4%	32.2%	0.76×	4.10
HT 0-1	18.6%	18.6%	16.1%	1.16×	5.36
HT 1-0	15.9%	18.6%	22.0%	0.84×	5.38
HT 1-1	12.0%	11.0%	10.1%	1.08×	9.12
HT 0-2	7.1%	6.9%	3.5%	1.96×	14.48
Any other HT score	6.8%	6.9%	4.5%	1.54×	14.48
HT 2-0	5.1%	6.9%	6.6%	1.05×	14.51
HT 1-2	4.6%	2.4%	1.6%	1.44×	42.00
HT 2-1	3.9%	2.4%	3.1%	0.78×	42.04
HT 2-2	1.5%	2.4%	1.2%	2.01×	42.20

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid at HT / Atletico Madrid at FT	25.4%	27.3%	13.2%	2.07×	3.67
Elche at HT / Elche at FT	19.7%	16.8%	26.3%	0.64×	5.96
Draw at HT / Atletico Madrid at FT	13.3%	12.7%	11.5%	1.10×	7.90
Draw at HT / Elche at FT	12.6%	12.7%	17.8%	0.71×	7.90
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.2%	12.7%	14.1%	0.90×	7.90
Atletico Madrid at HT / Draw at FT	5.8%	6.0%	6.4%	0.94×	16.66
Elche at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	6.0%	5.2%	1.16×	16.68
Atletico Madrid at HT / Elche at FT	3.1%	3.5%	2.6%	1.35×	28.68
Elche at HT / Atletico Madrid at FT	2.8%	3.5%	3.8%	0.92×	28.69

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid to score last	50.3%	52.0%	39.9%	1.30×	1.92
Elche to score last	46.0%	46.4%	54.9%	0.85×	2.15
No goal scored	3.7%	4.3%	5.3%	0.81×	23.35

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.3%	95.7%	94.7%	1.01×	1.05
Atletico Madrid to lead by 1 at any time	60.4%	61.3%	47.1%	1.30×	1.63
Elche to lead by 1 at any time	55.2%	54.8%	62.7%	0.87×	1.82
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	54.1%	50.9%	41.9%	1.21×	1.97
Atletico Madrid to lead by 2 at any time	29.7%	25.6%	15.8%	1.62×	3.91
Elche to lead by 2 at any time	24.9%	19.7%	26.5%	0.74×	5.08
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	21.3%	19.6%	17.2%	1.14×	5.10
Atletico Madrid to lead by 3 at any time	12.1%	10.5%	4.8%	2.16×	9.57
Elche to lead by 3 at any time	9.2%	6.7%	12.5%	0.54×	14.83

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid most corners	51.1%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Elche most corners	37.6%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	11.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.7%	83.4%	88.6%	0.94×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.0%	78.7%	72.9%	1.08×	1.27
1-4 goals	72.7%	72.4%	80.4%	0.90×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.4%	72.4%	69.2%	1.05×	1.38
2-4 goals	60.5%	63.3%	61.0%	1.04×	1.58
3-6 goals	58.9%	59.1%	47.5%	1.24×	1.69
1-3 goals	54.5%	53.2%	68.6%	0.77×	1.88
3-5 goals	52.3%	53.2%	43.8%	1.21×	1.88
2-3 goals	42.3%	43.6%	49.2%	0.89×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.3%	43.6%	35.6%	1.22×	2.30
4-6 goals	36.8%	39.2%	23.7%	1.65×	2.55
1-2 goals	32.4%	35.2%	44.9%	0.78×	2.84
4-5 goals	30.2%	35.2%	20.1%	1.75×	2.84
5-6 goals	18.6%	18.8%	12.0%	1.57×	5.31
7+ goals	5.0%	8.9%	2.6%	3.43×	11.28

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid never behind	41.0%	48.4%	37.3%	1.30×	2.07
Elche never behind	35.9%	43.9%	52.9%	0.83×	2.28

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	53.6%	0.95×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	46.4%	1.06×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.0%	51.6%	54.3%	0.95×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.0%	48.4%	45.7%	1.06×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.1%	51.9%	49.4%	1.05×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.9%	48.1%	50.6%	0.95×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.3%	95.4%	94.7%	1.01×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	88.4%	87.6%	93.8%	0.93×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	84.0%	82.3%	75.3%	1.09×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	76.4%	77.3%	85.5%	0.90×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	63.9%	61.7%	49.9%	1.24×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	58.2%	58.6%	73.8%	0.79×	1.71
Over 3.5 goals	41.8%	41.4%	26.2%	1.58×	2.42
Under 2.5 goals	36.1%	38.3%	50.1%	0.76×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	23.6%	22.7%	14.5%	1.57×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	16.0%	17.7%	24.7%	0.72×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	11.6%	12.4%	6.2%	1.99×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	3.7%	4.6%	5.3%	0.87×	21.86

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	94.6%	92.4%	97.3%	0.95×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	86.8%	86.7%	93.2%	0.93×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	80.0%	81.1%	66.9%	1.21×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	71.2%	72.4%	83.6%	0.87×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	53.7%	51.9%	34.4%	1.51×	1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	46.3%	48.1%	65.6%	0.73×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	28.8%	27.6%	16.4%	1.69×	3.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	20.0%	18.9%	33.1%	0.57×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	13.2%	13.3%	6.8%	1.96×	7.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	5.4%	7.6%	2.7%	2.83×	13.17

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	83.2%	85.8%	90.0%	0.95×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	75.5%	78.3%	67.8%	1.15×	1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half	59.0%	63.9%	70.1%	0.91×	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	41.0%	36.1%	29.9%	1.21×	2.77
Under 0.5 in 1st half	24.5%	21.7%	32.2%	0.68×	4.60
Over 2.5 in 1st half	16.8%	14.2%	10.0%	1.42×	7.05

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	84.8%	83.3%	82.0%	1.02×	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	70.7%	77.5%	79.0%	0.98×	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	56.2%	54.8%	46.6%	1.17×	1.83
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	43.8%	45.2%	53.4%	0.85×	2.21
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	29.3%	22.5%	21.0%	1.07×	4.44
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	15.2%	16.7%	18.0%	0.93×	5.99

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche not to score in both halves	71.2%	73.8%	73.6%	1.00×	1.36
Atletico Madrid not to score in both halves	67.2%	69.9%	81.0%	0.86×	1.43
Atletico Madrid to score in both halves	32.8%	30.1%	19.0%	1.59×	3.32
Elche to score in both halves	28.8%	26.2%	26.4%	0.99×	3.82

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	65.1%	59.8%	55.8%	1.07×	1.67
Only Atletico Madrid scores	17.0%	16.0%	14.3%	1.12×	6.24
Only Elche scores	14.2%	11.0%	24.8%	0.45×	9.05
Neither team scores	3.7%	4.6%	5.3%	0.87×	21.70

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.1%	22.6%	23.9%	0.95×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	20.1%	22.6%	25.5%	0.88×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	18.2%	17.5%	11.9%	1.47×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	12.2%	12.1%	19.5%	0.62×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	12.0%	12.1%	8.3%	1.45×	8.25
6 or more goals	11.6%	12.1%	6.2%	1.95×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	3.7%	4.5%	5.3%	0.84×	22.38

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	34.5%	35.9%	38.0%	0.94×	2.79
No goals in 1st half	24.5%	21.5%	32.2%	0.67×	4.65
2 goals in 1st half	24.2%	21.5%	20.0%	1.07×	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	16.8%	15.6%	10.0%	1.56×	6.40

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	56.2%	54.1%	46.6%	1.16×	1.85
1 goal in 2nd half	28.6%	29.2%	35.5%	0.82×	3.42
No goals in 2nd half	15.2%	16.4%	18.0%	0.91×	6.11

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche not to win both halves	90.9%	94.1%	88.0%	1.07×	1.06
Atletico Madrid not to win both halves	88.0%	88.0%	94.7%	0.93×	1.14
Atletico Madrid to win both halves	12.0%	12.0%	5.3%	2.27×	8.32
Elche to win both halves	9.1%	5.9%	12.0%	0.49×	16.86

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atletico Madrid to win either half	57.2%	59.1%	44.2%	1.34×	1.69
Elche to win either half	51.6%	54.2%	62.5%	0.87×	1.84
Elche to win neither half	48.4%	45.8%	37.5%	1.22×	2.19
Atletico Madrid to win neither half	42.8%	40.9%	55.8%	0.73×	2.45

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche not to win to nil	85.8%	88.1%	75.2%	1.17×	1.14
Atletico Madrid not to win to nil	83.0%	83.1%	85.7%	0.97×	1.20
Atletico Madrid to win to nil	17.0%	16.9%	14.3%	1.18×	5.92
Elche to win to nil	14.2%	11.9%	24.8%	0.48×	8.40

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	23.0%	24.1%	25.5%	0.95×	4.15
Atletico Madrid by 1	19.9%	17.1%	17.5%	0.97×	5.86
Elche by 1	18.2%	17.0%	25.7%	0.66×	5.87
Atletico Madrid by 2	12.5%	11.8%	7.1%	1.67×	8.51
Elche by 2	10.4%	11.8%	10.6%	1.11×	8.51
Atletico Madrid by 3+	9.2%	7.2%	4.0%	1.80×	13.90
Elche by 3+	6.8%	7.2%	10.2%	0.70×	13.91