Elche v Celta Vigo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 28 September 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 8
On target
8 – 2
Shots in box
15 – 7
xG per shot
0.25 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.89 – 0.04
Goals − xG
-2.32 – +0.18
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Elche win
38.9%
Draw
29.9%
Celta Vigo win
31.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Elche are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLDLWDDLLL last 10
scored 12
from 12.6 xG
conceded 20
from 15.4 xG
Celta Vigo are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLDWDLLDD last 10
scored 10
from 9.5 xG
conceded 10
from 17.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.12–0.98 | 1-0 14% | 35% | 42% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Elche 4.32 xGCelta Vigo 0.82 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Elche attacking right
Celta Vigo attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Celta Vigo |
Miguel Román | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Óscar Mingueza |
| 8' |
 Elche |
German Valera | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Adrià Pedrosa |
| 11' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Josan |
| 12' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 13' |
Celta Vigo |
Bryan Zaragoza | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hugo Sotelo |
| 14' |
Celta Vigo |
Carlos Domínguez | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hugo Sotelo |
| 16' |
Celta Vigo |
Borja Iglesias | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hugo Álvarez |
| 17' |
Elche |
André Silva | 0.62 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Josan |
| 21' |
Celta Vigo |
Borja Iglesias | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Ilaix Moriba |
| 25' |
Elche |
Aleix Febas | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | André Silva |
| 25' |
Elche |
John Donald | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 27' |
Elche |
André Silva | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Aleix Febas |
| 31' |
Celta Vigo |
Bryan Zaragoza | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Borja Iglesias |
| 34' |
Elche |
German Valera | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Adrià Pedrosa |
| 41' |
Elche |
André Silva | 0.30 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Adrià Pedrosa |
| 45' |
Celta Vigo |
Bryan Zaragoza | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Óscar Mingueza |
| 46' |
Elche |
André Silva | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Josan |
| 53' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.74 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 61' |
Elche |
John Donald | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 65' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.62 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Josan |
| 67' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.52 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | German Valera |
| 67' |
Elche |
John Donald | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 79' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | German Valera |
| 80' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Matías Dituro |
| 92' |
Celta Vigo |
Williot Swedberg | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hugo Sotelo |
Players
Celta Vigo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Román MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Borja Iglesias FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 0.28 |
| Carlos Domínguez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Ionut Radu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hugo Álvarez FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.47 |
| Hugo Sotelo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Marcos Alonso DL | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Yoel Lago DC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Bryan Zaragoza FWR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Óscar Mingueza DR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.54 |
| Ilaix Moriba MC | 49 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.53 |
| Javier Rueda Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Javier Rodríguez Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Williot Swedberg Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Iago Aspas Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Manuel Fernández Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Elche
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Donald MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.68 | 0.00 | 2.35 |
| German Valera MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.61 | 1.00 |
| Aleix Febas MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 1.38 |
| Matías Dituro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1.36 |
| David Affengruber DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Álvaro Núñez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.37 |
| Rafa Mir FW | 84 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.15 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Josan DR | 84 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 1.37 | 1.99 |
| Adrià Pedrosa DL | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| Pedro Bigas DC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.37 |
| André Silva FW | 67 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.06 | 0.02 | 1.17 |
| Alvaro Rodríguez Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.31 | 0.00 | 1.22 |
| Leo Petrot Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Victor Chust Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Grady Diangana Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marc Aguado Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |