Elche v Celta Vigo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 11 October 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 7
On target
2 – 0
Shots in box
8 – 2
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.25 – 0.03
Goals − xG
-0.73 – -0.43
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyElche win
38.5%
model 38.7%
Draw
23.2%
model 24.8%
Celta Vigo win
38.3%
model 36.5%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 11.6%
- 2-1 8.5%
- 1-2 8.2%
- 1-0 8.1%
- 0-1 7.9%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 55.4% | Under 2.5 | 44.6% |
| BTTS yes | 58.5% | BTTS no | 41.5% |
| Elche 1+ | 77.1% | Elche 2+ | 43.3% |
| Celta Vigo 1+ | 75.9% | Celta Vigo 2+ | 41.6% |
Expected goals 1.47 – 1.42. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
98/100
Data quality
100/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
3-6 goals
Multi goal · usually 48%
52.2% fair odds 1.92
moderate signal · 1994 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Celta Vigo (0:2)
Handicap 0:2 · usually 79%
83.6% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band
Positive factors
- Elche have created 1.14 xG a match over their last five while Celta Vigo have allowed 1.44.
- At home Elche average 1.58 xG a match.
Risk factors
- Elche have scored 2.00 a match from 1.14 xG over five matches, which usually corrects.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Elche have an estimated 38.5% win probability, against 38.3% for Celta Vigo and 23.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.47 for Elche and 1.42 for Celta Vigo.
Why Elche
Elche have created 1.14 xG a match over their last five while Celta Vigo have allowed 1.44. At home Elche average 1.58 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 23.2%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.47 to 1.42. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Celta Vigo can win
Celta Vigo carry the stronger rating, 1538 Elo against 1496. Celta Vigo have created 1.15 xG a match over their last five while Elche have allowed 1.84. Away from home Celta Vigo average 0.64 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Elche were missing 1.35 expected goal involvements a match against 0.86.
Key players
Elche's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Fernando Niño (0.45), Alvaro Rodríguez (0.42), André Silva (0.36). Celta Vigo's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Borja Iglesias (0.31), Hugo Gonzalez (0.28), Ferrán Jutglà (0.24).
Availability
2 of Elche's top three contributors did not start their last match. Elche had a player sent off last time out, worth about 0.05 expected goal involvements a match. 36% of Elche's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Celta Vigo's top three contributors did not start their last match.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Elche: 48% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 17.6 faced, 0.19 xG a match from set pieces. Celta Vigo: 52% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.26 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-10 14:48 · team_stats 2026-10-10 06:03 · availability 2026-10-10 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Elche are the model's most likely outcome at 38.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.6%. Confidence 98/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Elche have scored 12 from 11.3 expected and conceded 18 from 19.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DDLLLDLWDD last 10
scored 12
from 11.3 xG
conceded 18
from 19.1 xG
Celta Vigo are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLLDDDWDW last 10
scored 11
from 10.4 xG
conceded 7
from 11.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.47–1.42 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg | 1.54–1.41 | 1-1 11% | 56% | 59% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.49–1.44 | 1-1 11% | 56% | 59% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche to win | 43.5% | 42.9% | 46.5% | 0.92× | 2.33 |
| Celta Vigo to win | 31.7% | 30.5% | 28.5% | 1.07× | 3.28 |
| Draw | 24.8% | 24.4% | 25.1% | 0.97× | 4.09 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche & both teams score | 21.8% | 21.8% | 21.6% | 1.01× | 4.59 |
| Elche & not both score | 21.6% | 21.8% | 25.0% | 0.87× | 4.59 |
| Draw & both teams score | 19.0% | 18.0% | 20.2% | 0.89× | 5.57 |
| Celta Vigo & both teams score | 16.4% | 18.0% | 14.1% | 1.28× | 5.57 |
| Celta Vigo & not both score | 15.3% | 18.0% | 14.5% | 1.24× | 5.57 |
| Draw & not both score | 5.8% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 1.65× | 12.01 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche & over 1.5 | 34.5% | 30.8% | 33.9% | 0.91× | 3.25 |
| Elche & under 3.5 | 28.7% | 26.1% | 32.6% | 0.80× | 3.84 |
| Elche & over 2.5 | 27.5% | 26.1% | 28.0% | 0.93× | 3.84 |
| Celta Vigo & over 1.5 | 24.2% | 21.6% | 21.5% | 1.01× | 4.62 |
| Celta Vigo & under 3.5 | 22.0% | 21.6% | 21.5% | 1.00× | 4.63 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 19.0% | 18.0% | 20.2% | 0.89× | 5.56 |
| Celta Vigo & over 2.5 | 19.4% | 18.0% | 17.1% | 1.05× | 5.56 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 17.4% | 18.0% | 20.2% | 0.89× | 5.56 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 17.4% | 18.0% | 20.2% | 0.89× | 5.56 |
| Elche & under 2.5 | 16.0% | 18.0% | 18.6% | 0.97× | 5.56 |
| Elche & over 3.5 | 14.8% | 12.9% | 14.1% | 0.91× | 7.78 |
| Celta Vigo & under 2.5 | 12.3% | 12.9% | 11.5% | 1.11× | 7.78 |
| Elche & under 1.5 | 9.0% | 7.9% | 12.7% | 0.62× | 12.63 |
| Celta Vigo & over 3.5 | 9.8% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 1.12× | 12.62 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 7.3% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 1.57× | 12.63 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 7.3% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 1.57× | 12.63 |
| Celta Vigo & under 1.5 | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 1.12× | 12.63 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 5.8% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 1.57× | 12.63 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche (1UP) | 60.0% | 58.5% | 63.0% | 0.93× | 1.71 |
| Celta Vigo (1UP) | 49.9% | 43.9% | 47.2% | 0.93× | 2.28 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche (2UP) | 43.5% | 47.2% | 48.3% | 0.98× | 2.12 |
| Celta Vigo (2UP) | 31.7% | 31.2% | 30.0% | 1.04× | 3.21 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche to win 2nd half | 37.0% | 36.0% | 39.4% | 0.91× | 2.78 |
| 2nd half drawn | 34.5% | 34.2% | 33.0% | 1.03× | 2.93 |
| Celta Vigo to win 2nd half | 28.5% | 26.5% | 27.7% | 0.96× | 3.77 |
2nd half away goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo under 1.5 in 2nd half | 82.6% | 84.1% | 84.5% | 1.00× | 1.19 |
| Celta Vigo over 0.5 in 2nd half | 52.8% | 52.9% | 51.9% | 1.02× | 1.89 |
| Celta Vigo under 0.5 in 2nd half | 47.2% | 47.1% | 48.1% | 0.98× | 2.12 |
| Celta Vigo over 1.5 in 2nd half | 17.4% | 15.9% | 15.5% | 1.02× | 6.28 |
2nd half home goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche under 1.5 in 2nd half | 77.2% | 75.5% | 79.8% | 0.95× | 1.32 |
| Elche over 0.5 in 2nd half | 59.3% | 57.9% | 58.7% | 0.99× | 1.73 |
| Elche under 0.5 in 2nd half | 40.7% | 42.1% | 41.3% | 1.02× | 2.38 |
| Elche over 1.5 in 2nd half | 22.8% | 24.5% | 20.2% | 1.21× | 4.08 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo (+2.5) | 91.2% | 92.1% | 89.9% | 1.02× | 1.09 |
| Celta Vigo (+1.5) | 78.2% | 78.5% | 79.3% | 0.99× | 1.27 |
| Elche (+0.5) | 68.3% | 68.7% | 71.5% | 0.96× | 1.46 |
| Celta Vigo (+0.5) | 56.5% | 57.0% | 53.5% | 1.07× | 1.75 |
| Elche (-0.5) | 43.5% | 43.0% | 46.5% | 0.92× | 2.33 |
| Celta Vigo (-0.5) | 31.7% | 31.3% | 28.5% | 1.10× | 3.19 |
| Elche (-1.5) | 21.8% | 21.5% | 20.7% | 1.04× | 4.65 |
| Elche (-2.5) | 8.8% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 0.78× | 12.64 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo to concede | 78.9% | 78.8% | 80.5% | 0.98× | 1.27 |
| Celta Vigo clean sheet | 21.1% | 21.2% | 19.5% | 1.09× | 4.72 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo to concede in 1st half | 48.1% | 50.3% | 48.0% | 1.05× | 1.99 |
| Celta Vigo clean sheet in 1st half | 51.9% | 49.7% | 52.0% | 0.95× | 2.01 |
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo to concede in 2nd half | 59.3% | 57.7% | 58.7% | 0.98× | 1.73 |
| Celta Vigo clean sheet in 2nd half | 40.7% | 42.3% | 41.3% | 1.02× | 2.36 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo under 6.5 corners | 94.3% | 90.0% | — | — | 1.11 |
| Celta Vigo under 5.5 corners | 88.7% | 85.2% | — | — | 1.17 |
| Celta Vigo under 4.5 corners | 79.0% | 76.0% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Celta Vigo under 3.5 corners | 64.2% | 61.8% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Celta Vigo over 2.5 corners | 55.5% | 57.1% | — | — | 1.75 |
| Celta Vigo under 2.5 corners | 44.5% | 42.9% | — | — | 2.33 |
| Celta Vigo over 3.5 corners | 35.8% | 38.2% | — | — | 2.62 |
| Celta Vigo over 4.5 corners | 21.0% | 24.0% | — | — | 4.16 |
| Celta Vigo over 5.5 corners | 11.3% | 14.8% | — | — | 6.77 |
| Celta Vigo over 6.5 corners | 5.7% | 10.0% | — | — | 9.96 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo under 3.5 goals | 95.8% | 97.5% | 97.2% | 1.00× | 1.03 |
| Celta Vigo under 2.5 goals | 85.9% | 87.8% | 89.5% | 0.98× | 1.14 |
| Celta Vigo over 0.5 goals | 72.6% | 71.9% | 70.1% | 1.03× | 1.39 |
| Celta Vigo under 1.5 goals | 62.9% | 63.2% | 68.0% | 0.93× | 1.58 |
| Celta Vigo over 1.5 goals | 37.1% | 36.8% | 32.0% | 1.15× | 2.72 |
| Celta Vigo under 0.5 goals | 27.4% | 28.1% | 29.9% | 0.94× | 3.56 |
| Celta Vigo over 2.5 goals | 14.1% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 1.16× | 8.21 |
| Celta Vigo over 3.5 goals | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 0.91× | 39.85 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo under 1.5 in 1st half | 89.7% | 89.2% | 92.9% | 0.96× | 1.12 |
| Celta Vigo under 0.5 in 1st half | 58.1% | 61.5% | 63.1% | 0.97× | 1.63 |
| Celta Vigo over 0.5 in 1st half | 41.9% | 38.5% | 36.9% | 1.04× | 2.60 |
| Celta Vigo over 1.5 in 1st half | 10.3% | 10.8% | 7.1% | 1.51× | 9.29 |
Away highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo scores equally in both | 39.8% | 37.0% | 41.7% | 0.89× | 2.70 |
| Celta Vigo scores more in 2nd half | 36.5% | 36.9% | 37.3% | 0.99× | 2.71 |
| Celta Vigo scores more in 1st half | 23.7% | 21.8% | 21.1% | 1.03× | 4.59 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche (away no bet) | 63.7% | 62.0% | 64.9% | 0.96× | 1.61 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 36.3% | 38.0% | 35.1% | 1.08× | 2.63 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo even goals | 53.8% | 52.6% | 53.2% | 0.99× | 1.90 |
| Celta Vigo odd goals | 46.2% | 47.4% | 46.8% | 1.01× | 2.11 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 83.5% | 83.1% | 86.3% | 0.96× | 1.20 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 16.5% | 16.9% | 13.7% | 1.23× | 5.92 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 66.3% | 68.3% | 62.5% | 1.09× | 1.46 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 33.7% | 31.7% | 37.5% | 0.85× | 3.16 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 57.9% | 55.2% | 52.4% | 1.05× | 1.81 |
| Elche to score 2+ in a row | 37.1% | 36.2% | 34.3% | 1.06× | 2.76 |
| Celta Vigo to score 2+ in a row | 27.9% | 25.2% | 23.7% | 1.06× | 3.97 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 20.8% | 19.5% | 19.2% | 1.02× | 5.13 |
| Elche to score 3+ in a row | 13.1% | 12.1% | 13.0% | 0.93× | 8.29 |
| Celta Vigo to score 3+ in a row | 8.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 0.86× | 17.55 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche corners (+3.5) | 95.2% | 95.7% | — | — | 1.04 |
| Elche corners (+2.5) | 91.1% | 89.6% | — | — | 1.12 |
| Elche corners (+1.5) | 84.8% | 79.8% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Celta Vigo corners (+3.5) | 71.3% | 70.7% | — | — | 1.41 |
| Celta Vigo corners (+2.5) | 60.2% | 61.8% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Elche corners (-1.5) | 52.2% | 52.4% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Celta Vigo corners (+1.5) | 47.8% | 47.6% | — | — | 2.10 |
| Elche corners (-2.5) | 39.8% | 38.2% | — | — | 2.62 |
| Elche corners (-3.5) | 28.7% | 29.3% | — | — | 3.42 |
| Celta Vigo corners (-1.5) | 15.2% | 20.2% | — | — | 4.94 |
| Celta Vigo corners (-2.5) | 8.9% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.58 |
| Celta Vigo corners (-3.5) | 4.8% | 4.3% | — | — | 23.49 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-8 corners | 61.1% | 48.2% | — | — | 2.08 |
| 9-11 corners | 25.2% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.20 |
| 12+ corners | 13.7% | 21.1% | — | — | 4.73 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 corners | 91.0% | 83.4% | — | — | 1.20 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 86.3% | 83.1% | — | — | 1.20 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 79.8% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 71.4% | 72.5% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 61.1% | 63.2% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 50.6% | 53.1% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 49.4% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 38.9% | 36.8% | — | — | 2.72 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 28.6% | 27.5% | — | — | 3.64 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 20.2% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.27 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 13.7% | 16.9% | — | — | 5.90 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 9.0% | 16.6% | — | — | 6.04 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 50.1% | — | — | 2.00 |
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 49.9% | — | — | 2.01 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.7% | 11.5% | 15.3% | 0.75× | 8.73 |
| 1-0 | 9.0% | 7.4% | 12.7% | 0.58× | 13.50 |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 0.76× | 13.50 |
| 0-1 | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 1.04× | 13.50 |
| 1-2 | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 0.91× | 13.50 |
| 2-0 | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 1.23× | 13.50 |
| 0-0 | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 1.47× | 13.50 |
| 2-2 | 5.9% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 1.76× | 13.50 |
| 0-2 | 4.8% | 1.7% | 4.6% | 0.38× | 58.33 |
| 0-3 | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 0.84× | 58.34 |
| 0-4 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.04× | 58.35 |
| 1-3 | 3.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 0.79× | 58.33 |
| 1-4 | 1.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.56× | 58.35 |
| 2-3 | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 0.71× | 58.34 |
| 2-4 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 2.85× | 58.35 |
| 3-0 | 3.6% | 1.7% | 4.4% | 0.39× | 58.33 |
| 3-1 | 4.7% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 0.48× | 58.33 |
| 3-2 | 3.0% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 0.55× | 58.34 |
| 3-3 | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.78× | 58.35 |
| 3-4 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 4.75× | 58.35 |
| 4-0 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.02× | 58.35 |
| 4-1 | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 0.84× | 58.34 |
| 4-2 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.30× | 58.35 |
| 4-3 | 0.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.38× | 58.35 |
| 4-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 14.26× | 58.35 |
| Any other score | 3.1% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 0.55× | 58.34 |
DNB 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche (2nd half DNB) | 56.4% | 60.0% | 58.7% | 1.02× | 1.67 |
| Celta Vigo (2nd half DNB) | 43.6% | 40.0% | 41.3% | 0.97× | 2.50 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche leading at HT (DNB) | 56.2% | 57.7% | 61.9% | 0.93× | 1.73 |
| Celta Vigo leading at HT (DNB) | 43.8% | 42.3% | 38.1% | 1.11× | 2.37 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche or Celta Vigo (12) | 75.2% | 75.6% | 74.9% | 1.01× | 1.32 |
| Elche or draw (1X) | 68.3% | 69.5% | 71.5% | 0.97× | 1.44 |
| Celta Vigo or draw (X2) | 56.5% | 57.1% | 53.5% | 1.07× | 1.75 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche or draw at HT | 74.5% | 74.6% | 78.3% | 0.95× | 1.34 |
| Celta Vigo or draw at HT | 67.4% | 66.8% | 64.8% | 1.03× | 1.50 |
| Elche or Celta Vigo at HT | 58.1% | 57.1% | 56.7% | 1.01× | 1.75 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche or draw (1UP) | 68.3% | 75.6% | 78.0% | 0.97× | 1.32 |
| Celta Vigo or draw (1UP) | 56.5% | 63.1% | 60.2% | 1.05× | 1.59 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche or draw in 2nd half | 71.5% | 73.5% | 72.3% | 1.02× | 1.36 |
| Elche or Celta Vigo in 2nd half | 65.5% | 65.9% | 67.0% | 0.98× | 1.52 |
| Celta Vigo or draw in 2nd half | 63.0% | 64.0% | 60.6% | 1.06× | 1.56 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 62.0% | 61.4% | 62.4% | 0.98× | 1.63 |
| Neither half drawn | 38.0% | 38.6% | 37.6% | 1.03× | 2.59 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche (DNB) | 57.8% | 57.9% | 62.0% | 0.93× | 1.73 |
| Celta Vigo (DNB) | 42.2% | 42.1% | 38.0% | 1.11× | 2.38 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche to score first | 51.4% | 53.1% | 55.4% | 0.96× | 1.88 |
| Celta Vigo to score first | 42.8% | 42.1% | 39.6% | 1.06× | 2.38 |
| No goal scored | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 1.46× | 13.51 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 57.2% | 55.0% | 55.6% | 0.99× | 1.82 |
| Not both teams to score | 42.8% | 45.0% | 44.4% | 1.01× | 2.22 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score & over 2.5 | 45.6% | 44.4% | 40.5% | 1.10× | 2.25 |
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 34.1% | 34.5% | 35.0% | 0.99× | 2.90 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 11.7% | 12.4% | 15.3% | 0.81× | 8.09 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 0.88× | 12.04 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 82.9% | 82.6% | 86.2% | 0.96× | 1.21 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 17.1% | 17.4% | 13.8% | 1.26× | 5.76 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 68.7% | 67.8% | 71.3% | 0.95× | 1.48 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 31.3% | 32.2% | 28.7% | 1.12× | 3.10 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 54.8% | 55.2% | 60.0% | 0.92× | 1.81 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 25.0% | 26.7% | 23.3% | 1.15× | 3.75 |
| Both score 1st half only | 13.8% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 0.93× | 9.37 |
| Both score in both halves | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 1.24× | 14.54 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 79.9% | 80.7% | 83.1% | 0.97× | 1.24 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 20.1% | 19.3% | 16.9% | 1.14× | 5.18 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 56.4% | 57.2% | 54.9% | 1.04× | 1.75 |
| A half without a goal | 43.6% | 42.8% | 45.1% | 0.95× | 2.34 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 45.8% | 47.2% | 49.5% | 0.95× | 2.12 |
| 4-6 goals | 29.3% | 26.6% | 23.8% | 1.12× | 3.76 |
| 0-1 goals | 22.3% | 22.9% | 24.6% | 0.93× | 4.37 |
| 7+ goals | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 0.80× | 54.53 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo to score exactly 1 | 35.5% | 35.9% | 38.2% | 0.94× | 2.79 |
| Celta Vigo to score exactly 0 | 27.4% | 27.4% | 29.9% | 0.92× | 3.65 |
| Celta Vigo to score exactly 2 | 22.9% | 22.3% | 21.6% | 1.03× | 4.48 |
| Celta Vigo to score 3+ | 14.1% | 12.9% | 10.5% | 1.23× | 7.77 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche to score exactly 1 | 32.8% | 32.5% | 38.6% | 0.84× | 3.07 |
| Elche to score exactly 2 | 25.5% | 26.5% | 22.6% | 1.17× | 3.77 |
| Elche to score exactly 0 | 21.1% | 23.3% | 19.5% | 1.20× | 4.30 |
| Elche to score 3+ | 20.5% | 23.3% | 19.6% | 1.19× | 4.30 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT | 41.9% | 42.9% | 43.3% | 0.99× | 2.33 |
| Elche leading at HT | 32.6% | 33.2% | 35.2% | 0.95× | 3.01 |
| Celta Vigo leading at HT | 25.5% | 25.4% | 21.7% | 1.17× | 3.93 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche -1: 2 | 56.5% | 56.8% | — | — | 1.76 |
| Elche -1: 1 | 21.8% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.25 |
| Elche -1: X | 21.7% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.25 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo (0:1) | 56.5% | 55.8% | 53.5% | 1.04× | 1.79 |
| Elche (0:1) | 21.8% | 24.2% | 20.7% | 1.17× | 4.13 |
| Draw (0:1) | 21.7% | 24.2% | 26.0% | 0.93× | 4.13 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo (0:2) | 78.2% | 79.4% | 79.3% | 1.00× | 1.26 |
| Draw (0:2) | 13.1% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 1.03× | 9.12 |
| Elche (0:2) | 8.8% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 0.76× | 13.00 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo (0:3) | 91.2% | 92.7% | 89.9% | 1.03× | 1.08 |
| Draw (0:3) | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 0.83× | 17.29 |
| Elche (0:3) | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 0.73× | 42.24 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo (0:4) | 97.1% | 98.1% | 96.8% | 1.01× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 2.1% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 0.50× | 82.61 |
| Elche (0:4) | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.26× | 82.76 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche (1:0) | 68.3% | 69.9% | 71.5% | 0.98× | 1.43 |
| Draw (1:0) | 18.0% | 17.1% | 17.7% | 0.97× | 5.85 |
| Celta Vigo (1:0) | 13.7% | 12.8% | 10.9% | 1.17× | 7.84 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche (2:0) | 86.3% | 88.4% | 89.1% | 0.99× | 1.13 |
| Draw (2:0) | 9.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 0.89× | 15.66 |
| Celta Vigo (2:0) | 4.7% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 0.60× | 43.41 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 47.9% | 48.2% | 51.1% | 0.94× | 2.07 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 27.7% | 26.3% | 26.3% | 1.00× | 3.80 |
| Halves equal | 24.3% | 24.4% | 22.8% | 1.07× | 4.11 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche to concede | 72.6% | 73.1% | 70.1% | 1.04× | 1.37 |
| Elche clean sheet | 27.4% | 26.9% | 29.9% | 0.90× | 3.72 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche clean sheet in 1st half | 58.1% | 61.5% | 63.1% | 0.97× | 1.63 |
| Elche to concede in 1st half | 41.9% | 38.5% | 36.9% | 1.04× | 2.60 |
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche to concede in 2nd half | 52.8% | 52.8% | 51.9% | 1.02× | 1.89 |
| Elche clean sheet in 2nd half | 47.2% | 47.2% | 48.1% | 0.98× | 2.12 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche over 2.5 corners | 80.4% | 81.0% | — | — | 1.24 |
| Elche under 6.5 corners | 76.0% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Elche over 3.5 corners | 65.6% | 66.7% | — | — | 1.50 |
| Elche under 5.5 corners | 64.4% | 62.2% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Elche under 4.5 corners | 50.1% | 52.6% | — | — | 1.90 |
| Elche over 4.5 corners | 49.9% | 47.4% | — | — | 2.11 |
| Elche over 5.5 corners | 35.6% | 37.8% | — | — | 2.65 |
| Elche under 3.5 corners | 34.4% | 33.3% | — | — | 3.01 |
| Elche over 6.5 corners | 24.0% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.26 |
| Elche under 2.5 corners | 19.6% | 19.0% | — | — | 5.26 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche under 3.5 goals | 92.7% | 92.2% | 92.4% | 1.00× | 1.08 |
| Elche under 2.5 goals | 79.5% | 77.7% | 80.4% | 0.97× | 1.29 |
| Elche over 0.5 goals | 78.9% | 77.7% | 80.5% | 0.97× | 1.29 |
| Elche under 1.5 goals | 53.9% | 53.2% | 57.9% | 0.92× | 1.88 |
| Elche over 1.5 goals | 46.1% | 46.8% | 42.1% | 1.11× | 2.14 |
| Elche under 0.5 goals | 21.1% | 22.3% | 19.5% | 1.14× | 4.49 |
| Elche over 2.5 goals | 20.5% | 22.3% | 19.6% | 1.14× | 4.49 |
| Elche over 3.5 goals | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 1.03× | 12.85 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche under 1.5 in 1st half | 85.9% | 89.9% | 86.0% | 1.05× | 1.11 |
| Elche over 0.5 in 1st half | 48.1% | 50.4% | 48.0% | 1.05× | 1.98 |
| Elche under 0.5 in 1st half | 51.9% | 49.6% | 52.0% | 0.95× | 2.02 |
| Elche over 1.5 in 1st half | 14.1% | 10.1% | 14.0% | 0.72× | 9.90 |
Home highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche scores more in 2nd half | 39.3% | 37.8% | 40.2% | 0.94× | 2.65 |
| Elche scores equally in both | 35.5% | 37.7% | 32.0% | 1.18× | 2.65 |
| Elche scores more in 1st half | 25.2% | 27.8% | 27.8% | 1.00× | 3.59 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo (home no bet) | 56.1% | 56.4% | 53.1% | 1.06× | 1.77 |
| Draw (home no bet) | 43.9% | 43.6% | 46.9% | 0.93× | 2.30 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche even goals | 52.2% | 50.7% | 47.4% | 1.07× | 1.97 |
| Elche odd goals | 47.8% | 49.3% | 52.6% | 0.94× | 2.03 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 30.2% | 32.8% | 32.0% | 1.02× | 3.05 |
| HT 1-0 | 19.8% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 0.84× | 5.29 |
| HT 0-1 | 16.4% | 18.8% | 16.0% | 1.18× | 5.31 |
| HT 1-1 | 10.7% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 1.06× | 9.21 |
| HT 2-0 | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 1.11× | 14.40 |
| Any other HT score | 4.6% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 0.52× | 42.22 |
| HT 0-2 | 4.4% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 0.68× | 42.23 |
| HT 2-1 | 3.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 0.75× | 42.29 |
| HT 1-2 | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.51× | 42.34 |
| HT 2-2 | 1.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.95× | 42.47 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche at HT / Elche at FT | 25.3% | 27.0% | 26.3% | 1.03× | 3.71 |
| Celta Vigo at HT / Celta Vigo at FT | 17.6% | 16.8% | 13.1% | 1.28× | 5.96 |
| Draw at HT / Elche at FT | 15.5% | 16.8% | 18.0% | 0.93× | 5.97 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 14.5% | 12.7% | 13.9% | 0.91× | 7.90 |
| Draw at HT / Celta Vigo at FT | 12.0% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 1.08× | 7.91 |
| Elche at HT / Draw at FT | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 1.15× | 16.47 |
| Celta Vigo at HT / Draw at FT | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 0.99× | 16.47 |
| Celta Vigo at HT / Elche at FT | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.30× | 28.91 |
| Elche at HT / Celta Vigo at FT | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 0.90× | 28.93 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche to score last | 51.4% | 51.7% | 55.2% | 0.94× | 1.93 |
| Celta Vigo to score last | 42.8% | 40.2% | 39.9% | 1.01× | 2.49 |
| No goal scored | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 1.46× | 13.51 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 94.2% | 92.7% | 94.9% | 0.98× | 1.08 |
| Elche to lead by 1 at any time | 60.0% | 55.2% | 63.0% | 0.88× | 1.81 |
| Celta Vigo to lead by 1 at any time | 49.9% | 44.4% | 47.2% | 0.94× | 2.25 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 48.1% | 44.4% | 41.8% | 1.06× | 2.25 |
| Elche to lead by 2 at any time | 28.6% | 25.4% | 26.4% | 0.96× | 3.94 |
| Celta Vigo to lead by 2 at any time | 19.8% | 15.1% | 15.8% | 0.96× | 6.63 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 17.3% | 15.0% | 16.9% | 0.89× | 6.65 |
| Elche to lead by 3 at any time | 11.0% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 0.85× | 9.60 |
| Celta Vigo to lead by 3 at any time | 6.3% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 1.42× | 14.98 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche most corners | 64.7% | 60.5% | — | — | 1.65 |
| Celta Vigo most corners | 24.1% | 25.9% | — | — | 3.86 |
| Corners level | 11.2% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.60 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 87.3% | 87.4% | 89.2% | 0.98× | 1.14 |
| 1-4 goals | 78.2% | 78.7% | 81.0% | 0.97× | 1.27 |
| 2-6 goals | 75.1% | 78.6% | 73.2% | 1.07× | 1.27 |
| 2-5 goals | 70.8% | 72.4% | 69.6% | 1.04× | 1.38 |
| 1-3 goals | 62.3% | 63.4% | 69.1% | 0.92× | 1.58 |
| 2-4 goals | 61.7% | 63.4% | 61.4% | 1.03× | 1.58 |
| 3-6 goals | 51.6% | 53.1% | 47.7% | 1.11× | 1.88 |
| 3-5 goals | 47.3% | 48.5% | 44.1% | 1.10× | 2.06 |
| 2-3 goals | 45.8% | 48.5% | 49.5% | 0.98× | 2.06 |
| 1-2 goals | 40.0% | 39.2% | 45.2% | 0.87× | 2.55 |
| 3-4 goals | 38.2% | 39.2% | 35.9% | 1.09× | 2.55 |
| 4-6 goals | 29.3% | 30.3% | 23.8% | 1.27× | 3.30 |
| 4-5 goals | 25.0% | 24.5% | 20.2% | 1.21× | 4.08 |
| 5-6 goals | 13.4% | 14.8% | 11.9% | 1.25× | 6.74 |
| 7+ goals | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.12× | 39.21 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche never behind | 44.4% | 48.4% | 52.8% | 0.92× | 2.07 |
| Celta Vigo never behind | 34.2% | 36.6% | 37.0% | 0.99× | 2.73 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 49.8% | 50.9% | 53.6% | 0.95× | 1.96 |
| Even number of goals | 50.2% | 49.1% | 46.4% | 1.06× | 2.04 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 54.6% | 51.6% | 54.0% | 0.96× | 1.94 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 45.4% | 48.4% | 46.0% | 1.05× | 2.07 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 51.8% | 51.9% | 49.6% | 1.05× | 1.93 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 48.2% | 48.1% | 50.4% | 0.96× | 2.08 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 94.2% | 92.3% | 95.0% | 0.97× | 1.08 |
| Under 5.5 goals | 93.1% | 92.3% | 94.1% | 0.98× | 1.08 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 84.0% | 82.3% | 85.9% | 0.96× | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.7% | 77.3% | 75.4% | 1.03× | 1.29 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 68.1% | 66.3% | 74.0% | 0.90× | 1.51 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.2% | 52.5% | 49.9% | 1.05× | 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.8% | 47.5% | 50.1% | 0.95× | 2.11 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.9% | 33.7% | 26.0% | 1.30× | 2.97 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22.3% | 22.7% | 24.6% | 0.92× | 4.42 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 16.0% | 17.7% | 14.1% | 1.26× | 5.66 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 6.9% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 1.31× | 12.93 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 5.8% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 1.53× | 12.93 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 97.2% | 97.2% | 97.6% | 1.00× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 92.4% | 92.4% | 93.6% | 0.99× | 1.08 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 81.0% | 81.1% | 84.0% | 0.96× | 1.23 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 70.9% | 72.4% | 66.9% | 1.08× | 1.38 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 58.9% | 55.8% | 65.9% | 0.85× | 1.79 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 41.1% | 44.2% | 34.1% | 1.29× | 2.26 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 29.1% | 27.6% | 33.1% | 0.83× | 3.63 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 19.0% | 18.9% | 16.0% | 1.19× | 5.28 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 1.18× | 13.18 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.18× | 35.70 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 88.0% | 88.9% | 89.9% | 0.99× | 1.13 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 69.8% | 68.7% | 68.0% | 1.01× | 1.46 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 66.3% | 68.6% | 70.2% | 0.98× | 1.46 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 33.7% | 31.4% | 29.8% | 1.06× | 3.18 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 30.2% | 31.3% | 32.0% | 0.98× | 3.19 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 12.0% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 1.10× | 9.02 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 80.8% | 82.8% | 81.9% | 1.01× | 1.21 |
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 77.0% | 80.0% | 79.4% | 1.01× | 1.25 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 50.9% | 53.0% | 53.5% | 0.99× | 1.89 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 49.1% | 47.0% | 46.5% | 1.01× | 2.13 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 23.0% | 20.0% | 20.6% | 0.97× | 4.99 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 19.2% | 17.2% | 18.1% | 0.95× | 5.82 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo not to score in both halves | 77.9% | 78.2% | 81.2% | 0.96× | 1.28 |
| Elche not to score in both halves | 71.5% | 74.1% | 73.9% | 1.00× | 1.35 |
| Elche to score in both halves | 28.5% | 25.9% | 26.1% | 0.99× | 3.85 |
| Celta Vigo to score in both halves | 22.1% | 21.8% | 18.8% | 1.16× | 4.58 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 57.2% | 58.7% | 55.6% | 1.05× | 1.70 |
| Only Elche scores | 21.6% | 22.2% | 25.0% | 0.89× | 4.50 |
| Only Celta Vigo scores | 15.3% | 16.0% | 14.5% | 1.10× | 6.24 |
| Neither team scores | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 1.41× | 14.05 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 goals | 23.5% | 22.6% | 25.6% | 0.88× | 4.42 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 22.3% | 22.6% | 24.0% | 0.94× | 4.42 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 16.5% | 17.4% | 19.7% | 0.88× | 5.74 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 15.9% | 17.4% | 12.0% | 1.45× | 5.74 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 9.1% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 0.92× | 13.13 |
| 6 or more goals | 6.9% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 1.29× | 13.13 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 5.8% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 1.51× | 13.14 |
Total goals 1st half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 goal in 1st half | 36.2% | 37.2% | 38.3% | 0.97× | 2.69 |
| No goals in 1st half | 30.2% | 35.8% | 32.0% | 1.12× | 2.79 |
| 2 goals in 1st half | 21.7% | 21.4% | 19.8% | 1.08× | 4.67 |
| 3+ goals in 1st half | 12.0% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 1.09× | 9.11 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 49.1% | 45.4% | 46.5% | 0.98× | 2.20 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 31.7% | 33.6% | 35.5% | 0.94× | 2.98 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 19.2% | 17.1% | 18.1% | 0.95× | 5.86 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo not to win both halves | 92.7% | 94.1% | 94.8% | 0.99× | 1.06 |
| Elche not to win both halves | 87.9% | 88.2% | 88.2% | 1.00× | 1.13 |
| Elche to win both halves | 12.1% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 1.00× | 8.44 |
| Celta Vigo to win both halves | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 1.14× | 16.97 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche to win either half | 57.5% | 59.1% | 62.8% | 0.94× | 1.69 |
| Celta Vigo to win neither half | 53.3% | 54.3% | 55.8% | 0.97× | 1.84 |
| Celta Vigo to win either half | 46.7% | 45.7% | 44.2% | 1.03× | 2.19 |
| Elche to win neither half | 42.5% | 40.9% | 37.2% | 1.10× | 2.44 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo not to win to nil | 84.7% | 83.1% | 85.5% | 0.97× | 1.20 |
| Elche not to win to nil | 78.4% | 78.2% | 75.0% | 1.04× | 1.28 |
| Elche to win to nil | 21.6% | 21.8% | 25.0% | 0.87× | 4.58 |
| Celta Vigo to win to nil | 15.3% | 16.9% | 14.5% | 1.16× | 5.92 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 24.8% | 24.1% | 25.1% | 0.96× | 4.15 |
| Elche by 1 | 21.7% | 24.1% | 26.0% | 0.93× | 4.15 |
| Celta Vigo by 1 | 18.0% | 17.0% | 17.7% | 0.96× | 5.87 |
| Elche by 2 | 13.1% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 1.10× | 8.51 |
| Celta Vigo by 2 | 9.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 1.00× | 13.89 |
| Elche by 3+ | 8.8% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 0.71× | 13.89 |
| Celta Vigo by 3+ | 4.7% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 0.71× | 36.64 |
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Elche 0.73 xGCelta Vigo 0.43 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Elche attacking right
Celta Vigo attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Elche |
Gonzalo Villar | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Victor Chust |
| 9' |
Elche |
Rubén Sánchez | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 9' |
Elche |
Thomas Lemar | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Rubén Sánchez |
| 10' |
Elche |
Victor Chust | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 14' |
Elche |
Tete Morente | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 27' |
 Celta Vigo |
Ferrán Jutglà | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ilaix Moriba |
| 31' |
Celta Vigo |
Javier Rueda | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 32' |
Celta Vigo |
Álvaro Núñez | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 32' |
Celta Vigo |
Álvaro Núñez | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 37' |
Elche |
Roy Revivo | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marc Aguado |
| 44' |
Celta Vigo |
Ferrán Jutglà | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hugo Álvarez |
| 48' |
Elche |
Fernando Niño | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Thomas Lemar |
| 55' |
Elche |
Thomas Lemar | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tete Morente |
| 64' |
Elche |
Marc Aguado | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Roy Revivo |
| 64' |
Elche |
Marc Aguado | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 74' |
Celta Vigo |
Couhaib Driouech | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 84' |
Elche |
Lucas Cepeda | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Martim Neto |
| 87' |
Elche |
Rubén Sánchez | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 88' |
Celta Vigo |
Couhaib Driouech | 0.27 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Williot Swedberg |
| 90' |
Elche |
Martim Neto | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | German Valera |
Players
Celta Vigo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Rueda DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Álvaro Núñez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Yoel Lago DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Marcos Alonso DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Ionut Radu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Ilaix Moriba MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Aleix Febas MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Ferrán Jutglà FWR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Hugo Álvarez FWL | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Javi Galán DML | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Pablo Durán FW | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Borja Iglesias Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Couhaib Driouech Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Williot Swedberg Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| Sergio Carreira Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hugo Burcio Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Elche
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Aguado MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0.29 |
| Roy Revivo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| Rubén Sánchez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.27 |
| Victor Chust DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.24 |
| German Valera DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| Matías Dituro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Javier Morcillo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Thomas Lemar MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| Fernando Niño FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Gonzalo Villar MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Tete Morente FW | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.17 |
| Abiel Osorio Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martim Neto Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Lucas Cepeda Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Facundo Buonanotte Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |