Elche v Girona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 7 December 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 8
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
8 – 6
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.02 – 0.10
Goals − xG
+1.40 – -0.78
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Elche win
54.6%
Draw
24.3%
Girona win
21.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Elche are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WWLDLWDDLL last 10
scored 13
from 13.4 xG
conceded 19
from 15.4 xG
Girona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLLDDLD last 10
scored 8
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.61–0.89 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.67–1.10 | 1-1 11% | 53% | 54% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Elche 1.60 xGGirona 0.78 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Elche attacking right
Girona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Elche |
Aleix Febas | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Grady Diangana |
| 8' |
Elche |
Grady Diangana | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 10' |
Elche |
Álvaro Núñez | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 15' |
 Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Iván Martín |
| 33' |
Elche |
Aleix Febas | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Álvaro Núñez |
| 35' |
Elche |
Aleix Febas | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | German Valera |
| 39' |
Elche |
German Valera | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Hector Fort |
| 44' |
Girona |
Bryan Gil Salvatierra | 0.47 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Viktor Tsygankov |
| 44' |
Girona |
Yáser Asprilla | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Hector Fort |
| 56' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.52 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 60' |
Girona |
Alejandro Francés | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Yáser Asprilla |
| 63' |
Girona |
Yáser Asprilla | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Viktor Tsygankov |
| 64' |
Girona |
Bryan Gil Salvatierra | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Iván Martín |
| 67' |
Girona |
Thomas Lemar | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alejandro Francés |
| 68' |
Elche |
David Affengruber | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rafa Mir |
| 69' |
Elche |
Josan | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Iñaki Peña |
| 88' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Álvaro Núñez |
| 91' |
Girona |
Jhon Solis | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Thomas Lemar |
Players
Girona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Gil Salvatierra ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Álex Moreno DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Vitor Reis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Paulo Gazzaniga GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Iván Martín MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.64 |
| Daley Blind DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Viktor Tsygankov MR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.49 | 0.59 |
| Alejandro Francés DR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.56 |
| Yáser Asprilla FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Axel Witsel MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Vladyslav Vanat FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Jhon Solis Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Thomas Lemar Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| Joel Roca Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Hugo Rincón Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Juan Arango Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Elche
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafa Mir FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.71 | 0.42 | 1.34 |
| David Affengruber DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Aleix Febas MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Álvaro Núñez MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| Iñaki Peña GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| Victor Chust DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Marc Aguado MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| German Valera DML | 72 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Hector Fort DMR | 60 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Pedro Bigas DC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Grady Diangana FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| Rodrigo Mendoza Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Josan Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Leo Petrot Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Adrià Pedrosa Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| John Donald Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |