Elche v Mallorca — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 21 March 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 11
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
10 – 6
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.03 – 0.74
Goals − xG
+0.48 – -0.52
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Elche win
48.1%
Draw
26.4%
Mallorca win
25.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Elche are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLDLWDDLLL last 10
scored 12
from 12.6 xG
conceded 20
from 15.4 xG
Mallorca are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDLWDLLW last 10
scored 14
from 14.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.63–1.13 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.73–1.33 | 1-1 11% | 59% | 61% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Elche 1.52 xGMallorca 1.52 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Elche attacking right
Mallorca attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Mallorca |
Zito | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Antonio Sánchez |
| 6' |
 Elche |
Aleix Febas | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 13' |
Elche |
German Valera | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tete Morente |
| 18' |
Elche |
Grady Diangana | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tete Morente |
| 23' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.47 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | German Valera |
| 30' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marc Aguado |
| 32' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Elche |
German Valera | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Aleix Febas |
| 36' |
Mallorca |
Samú Costa | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Zito |
| 36' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Zito |
| 42' |
Elche |
Pedro Bigas | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 44' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | German Valera |
| 54' |
Mallorca |
Mateo Joseph | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 54' |
Mallorca |
Samú Costa | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mateo Joseph |
| 57' |
Elche |
Tete Morente | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Grady Diangana |
| 57' |
Mallorca |
Pablo Torre | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Zito |
| 61' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 67' |
Mallorca |
Omar Mascarell | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 69' |
Mallorca |
Sergi Darder | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Manuel Morlanes |
| 70' |
Elche |
Tete Morente | 0.42 | Open Play | — | Goal | German Valera |
| 77' |
Mallorca |
Samú Costa | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Toni Lato |
| 91' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.74 | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — | |
| 99' |
Elche |
Leo Petrot | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 100' |
Elche |
Tete Morente | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Redondo |
Players
Mallorca
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vedat Muriqi FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.20 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Samú Costa DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Mateo Joseph AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| Omar Mascarell DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Leo Román GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Martin Valjent DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Toni Lato DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| Raíllo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Antonio Sánchez DR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| Zito AMR | 65 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| Pablo Torre AMC | 65 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Sergi Darder Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Manuel Morlanes Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Justin-Noel Kalumba Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Elche
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvaro Rodríguez FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Tete Morente DMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.50 | 0.16 | 0.67 |
| Aleix Febas MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 1.23 |
| German Valera DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.94 | 1.11 |
| Pedro Bigas DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Victor Chust DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Matías Dituro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| David Affengruber DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Rafa Mir FW | 80 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Marc Aguado MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Grady Diangana MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0.67 |
| Gonzalo Villar Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Federico Redondo Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Buba Sangaré Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leo Petrot Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Adrià Pedrosa Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |