Elche v Rayo Vallecano — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 21 December 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 18
On target
6 – 8
Shots in box
16 – 8
xG per shot
0.21 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.26 – 0.32
Goals − xG
+0.25 – -1.15
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Elche win
38.6%
Draw
29.7%
Rayo Vallecano win
31.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Elche are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WWLDLWDDLL last 10
scored 13
from 13.4 xG
conceded 19
from 15.4 xG
Rayo Vallecano are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWDDWWLDL last 10
scored 16
from 16.6 xG
conceded 14
from 17.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.08–0.95 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.31–1.33 | 1-1 12% | 49% | 54% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Elche 3.75 xGRayo Vallecano 1.15 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Elche attacking right
Rayo Vallecano attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Elche |
Hector Fort | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Alvaro Rodríguez |
| 9' |
 Rayo Vallecano |
Óscar Valentín | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 10' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Unai López | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alfonso Espino |
| 11' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Unai López |
| 13' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Martim Neto |
| 13' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Álvaro Núñez |
| 16' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pedro Bigas |
| 22' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 23' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Álvaro Núñez |
| 25' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Sergio Camello |
| 26' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Óscar Valentín | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Unai López |
| 27' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pep Chavarría | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 29' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Iván Balliu | 0.60 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Óscar Valentín |
| 29' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Unai López |
| 36' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Unai López | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 37' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | German Valera |
| 37' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.63 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 40' |
Elche |
David Affengruber | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Álvaro Núñez |
| 48' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Álvaro Núñez |
| 48' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alvaro Rodríguez |
| 51' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pedro Bigas |
| 53' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Isi Palazón |
| 60' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Martim Neto |
| 65' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pedro Díaz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Unai López |
| 66' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.62 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Pedro Bigas |
| 69' |
Elche |
German Valera | 0.53 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Alvaro Rodríguez |
| 74' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Fran Pérez | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Augusto Batalla |
| 77' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Sergio Camello | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Álvaro García |
| 78' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pep Chavarría |
| 83' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 83' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Florian Lejeune |
| 84' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pedro Díaz | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Isi Palazón |
| 86' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Gerard Gumbau | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Álvaro García |
| 87' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Josan |
| 90' |
Elche |
Martim Neto | 0.27 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Josan |
Players
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergio Camello FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| Álvaro García AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Isi Palazón AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| Florian Lejeune DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| Pep Chavarría DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Augusto Batalla GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| Unai López DMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| Alfonso Espino AMR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Nobel Mendy DC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Óscar Valentín DMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| Fran Pérez Sub | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Iván Balliu DR | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Pedro Díaz Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Gerard Gumbau Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Luiz Felipe Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jozhua Vertrouwd Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
Elche
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafa Mir FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.73 | 0.00 | 1.97 |
| German Valera DML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.53 | 0.12 | 1.07 |
| David Affengruber DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Álvaro Núñez MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 1.03 |
| John Donald DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Aleix Febas MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.89 |
| Iñaki Peña GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Alvaro Rodríguez FW | 83 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 1.83 | 0.93 | 2.62 |
| Marc Aguado MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Pedro Bigas DC | 83 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 1.25 | 1.82 |
| Martim Neto Sub | 79 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.10 | 0.75 |
| Hector Fort DMR | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Josan Sub | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| Leo Petrot Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Yago Alonso Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Adam El Mokhtari Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |